Crop yield is mainly affected by weather condition, inputs, and agriculture policies. In the crop yield estimation, farmers＇ perception on weather conditions lead to the assessment of how well yield would be compared...Crop yield is mainly affected by weather condition, inputs, and agriculture policies. In the crop yield estimation, farmers＇ perception on weather conditions lead to the assessment of how well yield would be compared to the previous seasons. This paper applies Bayesian estimation method to estimate crop yield with farmers＇ appraisal on weather condition. The paper shows that crop yield estimation with farmers＇ appraisal on weather condition takes into account risk proportionally to climate change. In light of the United Nations efforts aimed to build a consolidated agriculture statistical system across countries, the statistical model developed here should provide an important tool both for the crop yield estimation and food price analysis.展开更多
文摘Crop yield is mainly affected by weather condition, inputs, and agriculture policies. In the crop yield estimation, farmers＇ perception on weather conditions lead to the assessment of how well yield would be compared to the previous seasons. This paper applies Bayesian estimation method to estimate crop yield with farmers＇ appraisal on weather condition. The paper shows that crop yield estimation with farmers＇ appraisal on weather condition takes into account risk proportionally to climate change. In light of the United Nations efforts aimed to build a consolidated agriculture statistical system across countries, the statistical model developed here should provide an important tool both for the crop yield estimation and food price analysis.
