Tracing nitrate sources in one of the world's largest eutrophicated bays(Hangzhou Bay):insights from nitrogen and oxygen isotopes

Eutrophication caused by inputs of excess nitrogen(N) has become a serious environmental problem in Hangzhou Bay(China),but the sources of this nitrogen are not well understood.In this study,the August 2019 distributions of salinity,nutrients [nitrate(NO_(3)^(-)),nitrite,ammonium,and phosphate],and the stable isotopic composition of NO_(3)^(-)(δ^(15)N and δ^(18)O) were used to investigate sources of dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN) to Hangzhou B ay.Spatial distributions of nitrate,salinity,and nitrate δ^(18)O indicate that the Qiantang River,the Changjiang River,and nearshore coastal waters may all contribute nitrate to the bay.Based on the isotopic compositions of nitrate in these potential source waters and conservative mixing of nitrate in our study area,we suggest that the NO_(3)^(- )in Hangzhou B ay was likely derived mainly from soils,synthetic N fertilizer,and manure and sewage.End-member modeling indicates that in the upper half of the bay,the Qiantang River was a very important DIN source,possibly contributing more than 50% of DIN in the bay head area.In the lower half of the bay,DIN was sourced mainly from strongly intruding coastal water.DIN coming directly from the Changjiang River made a relatively small contribution to Hangzhou Bay DIN in August 2019.

Bootstrap方法与Bays Bootstrap方法的比较

文章比较研究了Bootstrap方法与Bays Bootstrap方法的理论基础及其改进,给出了两者的区别与联系,讨论了它们的优缺点,结合实例验证了前面结论,特别得出:Bays Bootstrap方法模拟稳定,但小偏差超过一定界限时,实际效果不好。

Study of aquatic chemical characteristic in some bays along the coastal region of Zhejiang Province

In this paper,the aquatic chemical characteristics in the Hangzhou Bay,Xiangshan Bay and Leqing Bay along the coastal region of Zhejiang Province are discussed . Results show that the seasonal variations of chemical elements are obvious. The distribution of silicate in Hangzhou Bay and contents of dissolved oxygen and nutrient in the Xiangshan Bay are found to be unusual in winter. Correlations among the elements are complex. The content of nutrient in the Hangzhou Bay is higher than that in Xiangshan Bay and the content of nutrient in the Xiangshan Bay is higher than that in the Leqing Bay . The variation of the ratio of N/P is obvious. This reflects the aquatic chemical characteristics in the bay. Finally, this paper also discusses the reason why the aquatic chemical characteristics in the bays are unusual.

《Studies of the Biogeochemistry of Typical Estuaries and Bays in China》即将出版

由中国科学院海洋研究所沈志良研究员主编的《Studies of the Biogeochemistry of Typical Estuaries and Bays in China》将由Springer出版社出版。这是一部专门论述中国典型河口、海湾生物地球化学研究的书籍,以长江口和胶州湾为主要研究区域,研究内容包括营养盐、悬浮颗粒物、浮游植物、重金属等,涉及生物地球化学、生态学、环境科学、海洋化学、海洋生物学等多个学科。

Characteristics of modern sedimentation in Qingdao bays

With available survey data and 237surface sediment samples,the modern sedimentation in Qingdao bays is studied.The research result shows that the east area is shallower(16.4 m) than that in the west(45.8 m).The geography was formed by a symmetric wave in a sequence of bank-offshore depression-platform-tidal channel-platform-offshore depression-foreshore from south to north.Flood sedimentary systems were formed from inlet of the Jiaozhou Bay in the west to the barrier bar in the east.Lateral sedimentation includes mainly tidal current ridges in two tidal channels.Gravel sandy sediments formed by wave lie in midland of from seashore to wave base.Dynamic functions are mainly tide and wave.Tidal current moves sediment in vertical and horizontal directions,sorting sediments and providing materials for coastwise beaches.The sources of sediment are mainly from eroded headland rocks.In general,grain sizes in this area from the inlet of the Jiaozhou Bay in the west(120°17') to the barrier bar outside in the east(120°35') are coarse-fine-coarse,forming gravel-gravelly sand(G-S),sand(S),gravel clay silt(G-YT),clay silt(YT),gravelly silty sand(G-TS),silty sand(TS),gravelly sandy silt(G-ST),and sandy silt(ST) in turn.

一种串联系统可靠性指标的Bays估计

本文运用Bayes及多层Bayes方法对具有冷贮备部件串联系统的失效率,可靠度与平均失效时间进行了估计,最后通过随机模拟对这两种估计进行了比较分析。

Relationship between Dam Construction and Red Tide Occurrence in Small Bays and the Seto Inland Sea, Japan with Considerations from the Gulf of Mexico

There are many papers on red tide occurrences and eutrophication. Here, we use these data to examine the relationship between dam construction and red tide occurrence in Kesennuma Bay, Dokai Bay and the small bays of the Seto Inland Sea, Japan. Here, for the first time, differences in mechanisms of red tide occurrences in these small bays are demonstrated. Mud overflowing from dams likely induces red tides in these areas as the mud flows out from the mouth of the rivers, is carried along the coast by the longshore current, and then enters and is deposited into small bays. Red tide is considered to be induced by the accumulation of mud and siltation. From data on the locations and year of red tide occurrences in the Gulf of Mexico, the same mechanism as for the occurrence of red tide in small bays of Japanwas found to be applicable.

Saco-Casco Bays Inundation Modeling of Five Winter Storms

Coastal inundation along the northeast coast of the United States is usually caused by strong winter storms(WS).However,the accurate prediction of coastal inundation due to the WS is challenging.Therefore,our study aims to develop a unique high-resolution modeling system to accurately predict the coastal inundation in the ungauged coastal areas of Saco-Casco Bays and map the flood risk zones to potential sea level rise due to these storms.Hindcasts of five classic WS in 2014-2015 were studied.The inundation models are based on FVCOM that uses unstructured grid to capture the minor to significant flooding near the shallow areas of the bays,harbor entrance and river banks.In this study,topography has been generated from the NOAA’s integrated dataset of Portland,ME 1/3 arc-second MHW digital elevation model.The model runs were driven by two different sets of meteorological(NECOFS WRF and NOAA’s NAM WRF)forcing to examine the effect of spatial resolution on the predicted inundation.The study reveals that among the five storm surge cases,WS-III produces a maximum surge of 0.7 m and WS-II cause a minimum surge of 0.3 m.In all scenarios,southward wind-driven coastal current flowing towards Biddeford Pool,Pine Point and Camp Ellis forms a small-scale eddy which causes significant inundation however strength of the current varies accordingly.Sensitivity experiments have been carried out using NECOFS WRF simulation products with varying parameters of marshland elevation and bottom friction to understand the influence of intertidal storage on the predicted flooding.

Seasonal Variations in Phytoplankton Community Structure in the Sanggou,Ailian,and Lidao Bays

The seasonal variations in phytoplankton community structure were investigated for the Sanggou Bay （SGB） and the adjacent Ailian Bay （ALB） and Lidao Bay （LDB） in Shandong Peninsula,eastern China.The species composition and cell abundance of phytoplankton in the bay waters in spring （April 2011）,summer （August 2011）,autumn （October 2011）,and winter （January 2012） were examined using the Uterm6hl method.A total of 80 taxa of phytoplankton that belong to 39 genera of 3 phyla were identified.These included 64 species of 30 genera in the Phylum Bacillariophyta,13 species of 8 genera in the Phylum Dinophyta,and 3 species of 1 genus in the Phylum Chrysophyta.During the four seasons,the number of phytoplankton species （43） was the highest in spring,followed by summer and autumn （40）,and the lowest number ofphytoplankton species （35） was found in winter.Diatoms,especially Paralia sulcata （Ehrenberg） Cleve and Coscinodiscus oculus-iridis Ehrenberg,were predominant in the phytoplankton community throughout the study period,whereas the dominance of dinoflagellate appeared in summer only.The maximum cell abundance of phytoplankton was detected in summer （average 8.08 × 103 cells L-1） whereas their minimum abundance was found in autumn （average 2.60 x 103 cellsL-1）.The phytoplankton abundance was generally higher in the outer bay than in the inner bay in spring and autumn.In summer,the phytoplankton cells were mainly concentrated in the south of inner SGB,with peak abundance observed along the western coast.In winter,the distribution of phytoplankton cells showed 3 patches,with peak abundance along the western coast as well.On seasonal average,the Shannon-Wiener diversity indices of phytoplankton community ranged from 1.17 to 1.78 （autumn 〉 summer 〉 spring 〉 winter）,and the Pielou＇s evenness indices of phytoplankton ranged from 0.45 to 0.65 （autumn 〉 spring 〉 summer〉 winter）.According to the results of canonical correspondence analysis,phosphate level was the major factor that limited the occurrence of P.sulcata and C.oculus-iridis,whereas optimal temperature and low salinity were responsible for Prorocentrum blooms in summer.The detailed description of seasonal variations in phytoplankton community structure in the three bays provide reference data for future studies on marine ecosystems and mariculture in adjacent areas.

Numerical Simulation of Nutrient and Phytoplankton Dynamics in Guangxi Coastal Bays, China

The increasing riverine pollutants have resulted in nutrient enrichment and deterioration of water quality in the coastal water of Guangxi Province, China. However, the quantitative relationship between nutrient loads and water quality responses, which is crucial for developing eutrophication control strategies, is not well studied. In this study, the riverine fluxes of nutrients were quantified and integrated with nutrient cycling and phytoplankton dynamics by using box models for Guangxi coastal bays. The model concepts and biogeochemical equations were the same; while most model parameters were specific for each bay. The parameters were calibrated with seasonal observations during 2006–2007, and validated with yearly averaged measurements in 2009. The general features of nutrient and phytoplankton dynamics were reproduced, and the models were proved feasible under a wide range of bay conditions. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen was depleted during the spring algal bloom in Zhenzhu Bay and Fangcheng Bay with relatively less nutrient inputs. Phosphorus concentration was high in spring, which decreased then due to continuous phytoplankton consumption. Chlorophyll-a concentration reached its annual maximum in summer, but was the minimum in winter. Eutrophication was characterized by both an increase in nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton biomass in Lianzhou Bay. Either about 80% reduction of nitrogen or 70% reduction of phosphorus was required to control the algal bloom in Lianzhou Bay. Defects of the models were discussed and suggestions to the environmental protection of Guangxi coastal bays were proposed.

基于Bays网络数据挖掘的入侵检测模型的探讨

入侵检测技术在网络安全领域的应用越来越重要,它是网络安全防护的重要组成部分。因此,本文介绍了入侵检测技术的分类以及数据挖掘技术,阐述了Bayes统计方法的原理和在入侵检测系统中的数据挖掘方法。本文还简单粗略的介绍Bayes算法的实现。

Identification of coastal water quality by multivariate statistical techniques in two typical bays of northern Zhejiang Province,East China Sea

The Hangzhou Bay（HZB） and Xiangshan Bay（XSB）, in northern Zhejiang Province and connect to the East China Sea（ECS） were considerably affected by the consequence of water quality degradation. In this study, we analyzed physical and biogeochemical properties of water quality via multivariate statistical techniques. Hierarchical cluster analysis（HCA） grouped HZB and XSB into two subareas of different pollution sources based on similar physical and biogeochemical properties. Principal component analysis（PCA） identified three latent pollution sources in HZB and XSB respectively and emphasized the importance of terrestrial inputs, coastal industries as well as natural processes in determining the water quality of the two bays. Therefore, proper measurement for the protection of aquatic ecoenvironment in HZB and XSB were of great urgency.

Standing crop and primary production of benthic microalgae on tidal flats in the Sanggou and Jiaozhou Bays, China

The standing crop and primary production of benthic microalgae on tidal flats have seasonally been observed in the Sanggou and Jiaozhou Bays of the northern China coast during 1999 - 2000. The results show that the annual primary productions of benthic microalgae on tidal flats in the two bays are 2 532 and 7 542 tons carbon, which would be able to support 3.1 x 103 and 9.2 x 103 tons shellfish meat, respectively. The nature of sediment is essential for governing the biomass and primary production of benthic microalgae on tidal flats. The biomass and primary production of benthic microalgae on tidal flats with muddy sediments are higher than those with sandy sediments, which resulted from higher nutrient concentration and lower grazing pressure. That is the reason why in comparison with Xiangshan Bay the standing crop and production of benthic microalgae on tidal flats of the Sanggou and Jiaozhou Bays are low. Light was a key factor controlling vertical distribution of biomass and production of benthic microalgae on tidal flats of the two bays, resulted in appearance of maximum chlorophyll a and primary production at the surface layer and sharply decreased with depth of sediment.

Preliminary Research on the Characteristics and Causes of Formation of Seiches in the Bays

The Haizhou and Daya bays are chosen as basins for seiche research in this paper. By reducing the astronomical tide, we obtain residuals which include seiches from the original observed tide curve of two representative gauges of the Haizhou and Daya bays, with a time resolution of 1min. We have further made a statistical analysis of the characteristics of the seasonal distribution of seiches and by making a comparative analysis of the seiches and the corresponding weather system, studied the origin of seiches. The research findings are of important reference value for the ocean engineering design and the storm surge forecast.

基于Bayes时空模型分析HIV/AIDS晚发现的时空分布特征及其影响因素

【目的】旨在分析兰州市HIV/AIDS晚发现的时空聚集性特征及相关影响因素,明确兰州市HIV/AIDS晚发现高风险地区和时间趋势,为兰州市因地制宜地制定HIV/AIDS防治策略措施提供参考依据。【方法】选择兰州市2011-2018年间新报告的成年HIV/AIDS病例作为研究对象,研究中所需的数据资料来自兰州市疾病预防控制中心和兰州市统计年鉴。采用Bayes时空模型分析HIV/AIDS晚发现相对风险(RR)的时空分布特征及其影响因素。【结果】2011-2018年间兰州市新报告的HIV/AIDS病例共计1984例,其中HIV/AIDS晚发现者有982例(49.5%),平均年龄为39.67岁,男性占90.9%。老年人和女性HIV/AIDS病例中晚发现的比例更高;城关区(51.1%)、安宁区(50.3%)和榆中县(51.9%)具有高于平均水平的HIV/AIDS晚发现比例;2011-2018年间兰州市总体的晚发现比例呈波动上升趋势。Bayes时空模型分析结果显示,兰州市HIV/AIDS晚发现风险在2011-2015年间波动变化,而在2015年后迅速上升,其RR(95%CI)从1.01(0.84,1.23)上升到1.11(0.77,1.97);红古区和三个县的晚发现风险变化趋势与兰州市的总体变化趋势相似,而城关区和七里河区的晚发现风险呈下降趋势;晚发现相对风险大于1的区县包括:永登县(RR=1.07,95%CI:0.55,1.96)、西固区(RR=1.04,95%CI:0.67,1.49)、城关区(RR=2.41,95%CI:0.85,6.16)和七里河区(RR=2.03,95%CI:1.10,3.27)。冷热点分析结果显示城关区和七里河区为热点区。影响因素分析结果显示,随着人均GDP(RR=0.65,95%CI:0.35,0.90)和HIV/AIDS病例中的男性比例(RR=0.53,95%CI:0.19,0.92)的增高,HIV/AIDS晚发现的相对风险越低;而人口密度(RR=1.35,95%CI:1.01,1.81)越大,晚发现风险越高。【结论】兰州市的HIV/AIDS晚发现风险呈上升趋势,并且存在明显的地区差异特征;人均GDP、HIV/AIDS中男性比例和人口密度是HIV/AIDS晚发现的影响因素。因此,对于晚发现风险高和存在相关风险因素的区县,应重视并制定有针对性的HIV筛查和防治服务,降低HIV/AIDS晚发现比例和风险。

黄土抗剪强度参数均值与方差的Bayes估计及其应用

为解决黄土强度参数估计问题,从工程勘察项目中共收集统计了3384组Q1、Q2、Q3黄土强度参数黏聚力c、内摩擦角φ值的测试数据,不考虑二者的相关性,将参数均值和方差都作为随机变量,建立起黄土强度参数c、φ的正态-逆伽马先验分布。基于Bayes理论,利用共轭先验法推导了参数后验分布和后验概率密度函数的期望值求解公式,确定了估计的误差。以陕西泾阳黄土边坡为例,利用所建立的先验分布和边坡土层测试强度指标,求取参数的后验分布,进一步估计了边坡失效概率的概率分布和稳定系数均值的概率分布。结果表明:在95%的置信度下,按稳定系数评价,边坡均处于基本稳定状态,且稳定系数置信区间小;按失效概率评价,边坡接近稳定状态,但失效概率的置信区间较大,黄土强度参数的方差控制着边坡失效概率的置信区间,将方差作为随机变量,考虑方差变异性,能更科学地评估黄土工程的可靠度。

双定时混合截尾下Lomax部件的可靠性分析

在双定时混合截尾数据下,利用极大似然法得到Lomax分布的未知参数、可靠度函数和危险函数的极大似然估计.基于连续型和离散型的混合先验分布在三类损失函数下得到了模型参数、可靠度及危险函数的Bayes估计.分别利用经典方法和Bayes方法得到了被截尾样品未来失效时刻的预测值和预测区间.利用极大似然法对先验分布中的超参数进行了估计,并证明了估计值的唯一性.为了考察估计量的性质,用蒙特卡洛模拟计算出了均方误差,结果表明Bayes估计优于极大似然估计.通过对一个数值例子进行分析,得出了未知参数及可靠性指标的估计.

基于Bayes推断的交流接触器剩余电寿命预测

针对交流接触器可靠性开展研究,首先分析交流接触器的电弧侵蚀机理,建立了计及电弧电压及电弧重燃影响的电弧侵蚀模型,根据该模型仿真得到的交流接触器性能退化特征参量变化过程与交流接触器的实际退化规律一致。分析不同工况下性能退化数据特征,提出了不同工况下先验信息的等效折算方法,解决了不同工况下的先验信息利用问题。建立了基于Bayes推断的交流接触器剩余电寿命预测模型,提高了剩余电寿命预测精度,实现了利用不同工况下性能退化数据对交流接触器进行剩余电寿命预测。在AC-4、AC-3两种工况下进行了交流接触器电寿命仿真分析及实验分析,相对误差均小于5.5%,验证了方法的准确性。

广义定时截尾下Lomax分布的统计推断及剩余寿命预测

在定时截尾试验方案的基础上提出了一种新的截尾试验方案,即广义定时截尾。在广义定时截尾样本下,研究了两参数Lomax分布形状参数和可靠度的极大似然估计。把形状参数的先验分布取为Gamma分布,在三类损失函数下求出了形状参数及可靠度的Bayes估计。分别用经典方法和Bayes方法对元件的剩余使用寿命进行预测,包括点预测和区间预测。对Lomax型元件组成的串联和并联系统的可靠度函数进行估计。通过蒙特卡洛模拟对经典方法和Bayes方法的估计精度进行比较,从均方误差来看,Bayes估计要优于极大似然估计。最后对一个数值例子进行了分析,得出了相关结果。

Ⅱ型双删失样本下逆Topp-Leone分布的Bayes估计

在Ⅱ型双删失样本下,研究了逆Topp-Leone分布参数的极大似然估计,证明了极大似然估计的存在性和唯一性;基于未知参数的先验分布为Gamma分布和Jeffrey分布,分别在三种不同损失函数下,得到逆Topp-Leone分布未知参数的Bayes估计。根据后验密度函数得到预测密度,进而得到未来观测值在三种损失函数下的预测估计值。为了比较在不同损失下Bayes估计的优劣,采用数值模拟方法计算了各种估计的均值及均方误差,结果表明在Linex损失下未知参数的Bayes估计量更接近真值,均方误差最小。