Clinical significance of melatonin concentrations in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis

AIM: To assess the value of plasma melatonin in predicting acute pancreatitis when combined with the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation?II?(APACHEII) and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring systems.METHODS: APACHEII and BISAP scores were calculated for 55 patients with acute physiology (AP) in the first 24 h of admission to the hospital. Additionally, morning (6:00 AM) serum melatonin concentrations were measured on the first day after admission. According to the diagnosis and treatment guidelines for acute pancreatitis in China, 42 patients suffered mild AP (MAP). The other 13 patients developed severe AP (SAP). A total of 45 healthy volunteers were used in this study as controls. The ability of melatonin and the APACHEII and BISAP scoring systems to predict SAP was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The optimal melatonin cutoff concentration for SAP patients, based on the ROC curve, was used to classify the patients into either a high concentration group (34 cases) or a low concentration group (21 cases). Differences in the incidence of high scores, according to the APACHEII and BISAP scoring systems, were compared between the two groups.RESULTS: The MAP patients had increased melatonin levels compared to the SAP (38.34 ng/L vs 26.77 ng/L) (P = 0.021) and control patients (38.34 ng/L vs 30.73 ng/L) (P = 0.003). There was no significant difference inmelatoninconcentrations between the SAP group and the control group. The accuracy of determining SAP based on the melatonin level, the APACHEII score and the BISAP score was 0.758, 0.872, and 0.906, respectively, according to the ROC curve. A melatonin concentration ≤ 28.74 ng/L was associated with an increased risk of developing SAP. The incidence of high scores (≥ 3) using the BISAP system was significantly higher in patients with low melatonin concentration (≤ 28.74 ng/L) compared to patients with high melatonin concentration (> 28.74 ng/L) (42.9% vs 14.7%, P = 0.02). The incidence of high APACHEII scores (≥ 10) between the two groups was not significantly different.CONCLUSION: The melatonin concentration is closely related to the severity of AP and the BISAP score. Therefore, we can evaluate the severity of disease by measuring the levels of serum melatonin.

Red cell distribution width: A predictor of the severity of hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND Compared with patients with other causes of acute pancreatitis,those with hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis(HTG-AP)are more likely to develop persistent organ failure(POF).Therefore,recognizing the individuals at risk of developing POF early in the HTG-AP process is a vital for improving outcomes.Bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis(BISAP),a simple parameter that is obtained 24 h after admission,is an ideal index to predict HTG-AP severity;however,the suboptimal sensitivity limits its clinical application.Hence,current clinical scoring systems and biochemical parameters are not sufficient for predicting HTG-AP severity.AIM To elucidate the early predictive value of red cell distribution width(RDW)for POF in HTG-AP.METHODS In total,102 patients with HTG-AP were retrospectively enrolled.Demographic and clinical data,including RDW,were collected from all patients on admission.RESULTS Based on the Revised Atlanta Classification,37(33%)of 102 patients with HTG-AP were diagnosed with POF.On admission,RDW was significantly higher in patients with HTG-AP and POF than in those without POF(14.4%vs 12.5%,P<0.001).The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated a good discrim-inative power of RDW for POF with a cutoff of 13.1%,where the area under the curve(AUC),sensitivity,and specificity were 0.85,82.4%,and 77.9%,respectively.When the RDW was≥13.1%and one point was added to the original BISAP to obtain a new BISAP score,we achieved a higher AUC,sensitivity,and specificity of 0.89,91.2%,and 67.6%,respectively.CONCLUSION RDW is a promising predictor of POF in patients with HTG-AP,and the addition of RDW can promote the sensitivity of BISAP.

Predicting morbidity and mortality in acute pancreatitis in an Indian population:a comparative study of the BISAP score,Ranson’s score and CT severity index

Objective:Our aim was to prospectively evaluate the accuracy of the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis(BISAP)score in predicting mortality,as well as intermediate markers of severity,in a tertiary care centre in east central India,which caters mostly for an economically underprivileged population.Methods:A total of 119 consecutive cases with acute pancreatitis were admitted to our institution between November 2012 and October 2014.BISAP scores were calculated for all cases,within 24 hours of presentation.Ranson’s score and computed tomography severity index(CTSI)were also established.The respective abilities of the three scoring systems to predict mortality was evaluated using trend and discrimination analysis.The optimal cut-off score for mortality from the receiver operating characteristics(ROC)curve was used to evaluate the development of persistent organ failure and pancreatic necrosis(PNec).Results:Of the 119 cases,42(35.2%)developed organ failure and were classified as severe acute pancreatitis(SAP),47(39.5%)developed PNec,and 12(10.1%)died.The area under the curve(AUC)results for BISAP score in predicting SAP,PNec,and mortality were 0.962,0.934 and 0.846,respectively.Ranson’s score showed a slightly lower accuracy for predicting SAP(AUC 0.956)and mortality(AUC 0.841).CTSI was the most accurate in predicting PNec,with an AUC of 0.958.The sensitivity and specificity of BISAP score,with a cut-off of≥3 in predicting mortality,were 100%and 69.2%,respectively.Conclusions:The BISAP score represents a simple way of identifying,within 24 hours of presentation,patients at greater risk of dying and the development of intermediate markers of severity.This risk stratification method can be utilized to improve clinical care and facilitate enrolment in clinical trials.

A comparison of APACHE II,BISAP,Ranson’s score and modified CTSI in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis based on the 2012 revised Atlanta Classification

Objective:Our aim was to prospectively compare the Accuracy of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE)II,Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis(BISAP),Ranson’s score and modified Computed Tomography Severity Index(CTSI)in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis based on Atlanta 2012 definitions in a tertiary care hospital in northern India.Methods:Fifty patients with acute pancreatitis admitted to our hospital during the period of March 2015 to September 2016 were included in the study.APACHE II,BISAP and Ranson’s score were calculated for all the cases.Modified CTSI was also determined based on a pancreatic protocol contrast enhanced computerized tomography(CT).Optimal cut-offs for these scoring systems and the area under the curve(AUC)were evaluated based on the receiver operating characteristics(ROC)curve and these scoring systems were compared prospectively.Results:Of the 50 cases,14 were graded as severe acute pancreatitis.Pancreatic necrosis was present in 15 patients,while 14 developed persistent organ failure and 14 needed intensive care unit(ICU)admission.The AUC for modified CTSI was consistently the highest for predicting severe acute pancreatitis(0.919),pancreatic necrosis(0.993),organ failure(0.893)and ICU admission(0.993).APACHE II was the second most accurate in predicting severe acute pancreatitis(AUC 0.834)and organ failure(0.831).APACHE II had a high sensitivity for predicting pancreatic necrosis(93.33%),organ failure(92.86%)and ICU admission(92.31%),and also had a high negative predictive value for predicting pancreatic necrosis(96.15%),organ failure(96.15%)and ICU admission(95.83%).Conclusion:APACHE II is a useful prognostic scoring system for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis and can be a crucial aid in determining the group of patients that have a high chance of need for tertiary care during the course of their illness and therefore need early resuscitation and prompt referral,especially in resource-limited developing countries.