Empirical Study on Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Regional Economic Growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

Based on the data of gross domestic product(GDP),industrial added value and the proportion of industrial employees from 2000 to 2008,this paper studies the effect of industrial structure change on the regional economic growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region in China using the shift-share method.The results show that:1) In the 21st century,the industrial output of three industries,namely,primary,secondary,and tertiary,and the GDP grew rapidly in the study period.The tertiary industry grew the fastest;it had the largest contribution to the GDP and mean-while had become the most competitive industry in the metropolitan region.2) The development of cities within the region was not balanced.Firstly,compared with Tianjin,Beijing,as one of the two core cities,was more rational in the industrial structure.Secondly,the surrounding eight cities,which are Shijiazhuang,Qinhuangdao,Tangshan,Langfang,Baoding,Cangzhou,Zhangjiakou,and Chengde,were all uncompetitive than the two core cities.3) There was a great industrial gradient in the region(especially between the two core cities and the cities of Tangshan,Baoding,Zhangjia-kou,Chengde,Cangzhou,and Langfang).As a result,it is foreseeable that the industry transfer in the Bei-jing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region will be one of the trends in regional development,and the industry transfer is inevitably to promote the regional integration.

Decomposition of factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,based on the perspective of terminal energy consumption

In order to analyze the factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and to explore the pathways to developing a low-carbon economy,this paper begins with the terminal energy consumption of three industries and residential consumption,and constructs an identical equation which is composed of population size,level of economic development,energy intensity,the proportion of energy consumption,energy structure,and the coefficient of carbon emissions.Based on the data of terminal energy consumption during 2000-2012,various factors are analyzed and their contribution is measured by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI).The results show that the levels of population and economy have a positive driving effect while energy intensity,energy structure,and carbon intensity have a negative driving effect;the proportion of energy consumption had a negative driving effect prior to 2006,then changed to positive.Among suggestions for a low-carbon economy are controlling population size,improving the quality of economic development,supporting research into new energy technology,accelerating regional integration and optimizing industrial structure,and enhancing environmental protection and spreading the concept of a low-carbon economy.

A Brief Analysis of the Causes and Countermeasures of Fog-Haze in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Since China broke the blockade and opened the country to the outside world, many township enterprises develop quickly. Together with the pollution caused by China’s coal-burning as the main source of national energy, the pollution caused by small and medium-sized enterprises in towns and villages due to their small investment, low technology level and weak environmental awareness, and the pollution caused by a sharp increase in motor vehicle emissions lead to the fact that fog-haze has been rampant in China’s cities and urban agglomerations for nearly two decades, especially in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This paper sorted out the current situation of fog-haze and analyzed the causes of fog-haze from the two aspects of natural and man-made causes, discussed the harms of fog-haze to human body, environment and life, and put forward the concrete measures to solve the fog-haze problem.

Assessing performance of cross-administrative environment governance based on PSR model:An empirical analysis of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

As an effective environment governance tool,environment governance performance evaluation is an important content and method to promote the modernization of environment governance system and governance ability.The environmental pollution of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has typical cross-administrative characteristics.Based on the analysis of the major environmental pollution problems in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,according to the international environment governance PSR model,a performance evaluation system that applies to the environment governance of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is established.Meanwhile,the principal component analysis method is applied to conduct an empirical analysis of the environmental governance panel data for the 13 major cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2014 to 2016.The results show that most of the cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region attach great importance to reduction of emission and pollutants,continuously alleviating the stress of environmental governance.However,the overall improvement of the environment governance performance in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has presented a polarization imbalance.There is a clear tendency for subjective biases in the implementation of environment governance and a lack of comprehensive and systematic governance.According to the environment governance performance evaluation result of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the cross-administrative regional environment governance should improve the environment governance performance evaluation system as soon as possible,strengthen the consistency of the environment governance objectives,and implement comprehensive and systematic governance for the regional environment.

Measurement of Urban Economic Gravity of China’s Three Major Agglomerations and Its Implications for the Coordinated Development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

This paper adopts the perspective of urban economic linkage and the modified urban economic gravity model to conduct a comparative analysis of the economic gravity among cities in China’s three major urban agglomerations,including the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the Yangtze River Delta,and the Pearl River Delta.The results show that,despite the ever-tightening economic linkages among cities in the urban agglomerations,the development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region falls behind that of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta in terms of coordination,closeness,and balance.The economic linkages among cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are not as cohesive as they could be and display a significant“siphon effect”through Beijing and Tianjin as well as a prominently unidirectional economic flow.This study suggests that efforts should be put into directing the orderly flow of resources from Beijing and Tianjin to cities in Hebei and promoting a balanced economic flow among cities,thus facilitating the coordination of regional development.

Problems and Countermeasures of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei's location

Regional economic integration is the main trend in the world,the region participate inthe international competition as a whole.China has formed Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta region which have showed strong competitive and plays an important role in enhancing theoverall competitiveness of a country.As the third largest area,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei'slocation is very important,Beijing,Tianjin and regional development has also attracted great attention of national leaders,China will enhance the economic development of Beijing,Tianjin region to the national strategic level,However,the process of economic integration in Beijing,Tianjin and regional development has been relatively slow,Hebei Province in Beijing and the day Tianjin two big cities have been developing weak,Beijing City,but also faced with the problem of excessive development,This paper points out the problems faced by the integration of Beijing,Tianjin,and puts forward some countermeasures,hoping to discuss how to promote the integration process.

Atmospheric Circulation and Dynamic Mechanism for Persistent Haze Events in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

In this study, regional persistent haze events（RPHEs） in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei（BTH） region were identified based on the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events for the period 1980–2013. The formation mechanisms of the severe RPHEs were investigated with focus on the atmospheric circulation and dynamic mechanisms. Results indicated that：（1） 49 RPHEs occurred during the past 34 years.（2） The severe RPHEs could be categorized into two types according to the large-scale circulation, i.e. the zonal westerly airflow（ZWA） type and the high-pressure ridge（HPR） type. When the ZWA-type RPHEs occurred, the BTH region was controlled by near zonal westerly airflow in the mid–upper troposphere.Southwesterly winds prevailed in the lower troposphere, and near-surface wind speeds were only 1–2 ms^-1. Warm and humid air originating from the northwestern Pacific was transported into the region, where the relative humidity was 70% to 80%, creating favorable moisture conditions. When the HPR-type RPHEs appeared, northwesterly airflow in the mid–upper troposphere controlled the region. Westerly winds prevailed in the lower troposphere and the moisture conditions were relatively weak.（3） Descending motion in the mid-lower troposphere caused by the above two circulation types provided a crucial dynamic mechanism for the formation of the two types of RPHEs. The descending motion contributed to a reduction in the height of the planetary boundary layer（PBL）, which generated an inversion in the lower troposphere. This inversion trapped the abundant pollution and moisture in the lower PBL, leading to high concentrations of pollutants.

生态保护修复视角下京津冀地区社会经济-生态环境系统耦合关系及影响机制

协同推进生态保护与绿色发展、助力实现人与自然和谐共生的现代化已成为生态保护修复的重要目标。基于2008-2021年京津冀地区的社会经济和生态环境相关数据,运用综合发展评价模型、耦合协调度模型测度京津冀地区社会经济与生态环境系统耦合协调度,运用VAR模型、灰色关联度模型探究京津冀地区生态保护修复对社会经济-生态环境系统协同发展的影响机制。结果表明:①2008-2021年京津冀地区社会经济、生态环境和生态保护修复系统发展水平均呈上升趋势,年均增长率分别为6.0%、0.97%和3.1%。②2008年-2021年京津冀地区社会经济-生态环境系统耦合协调度由0.44波动升至0.75,耦合协调状态由濒临失调调整至中级协调;耦合协调水平在空间上存在明显差异,河北省耦合协调水平次于北京市和天津市。③生态保护修复对社会经济-生态环境系统耦合协调度具有短期正向影响;要素保护与修复、环境治理和生态保护修复社会效益均与系统耦合协调度有较强关联,关联度分别为0.877、0.939和0.978。研究显示,京津冀地区生态保护修复能够对社会经济-生态环境系统协同发展产生积极作用,需充分利用其生态与社会正外部性,实现区域绿色可持续发展。

京津冀地区水-能源-粮食系统安全耦合协调发展特征评价

以京津冀地区为研究区域,选取28个代表性指标,利用层次分析法构建水-能源-粮食耦合安全综合指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型和障碍度模型分析2000-2020年水-能源-粮食系统耦合安全性和影响因素。研究结果表明:京津冀地区水安全、能源安全和粮食安全系统综合评价指数呈整体上升的趋势,其浮动范围为0.3~0.7;水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调度年际间均呈上升趋势,北京市耦合协调度最高,河北省耦合协调度较低;人均水资源量、废水中COD排放量、人均能源消费量和亩均农用机械总动力为京津冀地区主要障碍因子。未来北京应调整用水结构、挖掘节水潜力。天津市和河北省要注重优化能源消费结构,进行低碳技术创新,加大脱碳步伐,其中河北省农业发展需要进一步采取节水灌溉措施、减少农作物受灾面积。

基于全域连通性识别气候变化风险下的生物多样性保护优先区--以京津冀为例

在保护优先区规划中,有必要考虑气候变化的潜在风险并关注物种在气候驱动下的扩散格局。基于未来生物气候数据、地形多样性数据以及土地利用数据,应用Omniscape算法,对21世纪中叶(2040—2061年)气候变化情景下京津冀地区陆生哺乳动物的扩散进行全域连通性建模并与当前情景对比分析,识别出生物多样性保护优先区。结果表明:区域尺度下,气候变化风险使得高连通性的区域逐渐从平原向山区转移,分布趋于集中;斑块尺度下,林缘连通性较高,而位于林地或草地边缘的耕地连通性低。在此基础上,共识别生物多样性保护优先区共51786 km^(2),其中涵养区(占56.4%)在当前和未来的连通状况均较为良好;优化区(占38.4%)应提升生境质量以满足未来连通性的更高需求;而修复区(占5.22%)面临的气候变化风险较高,亟需进行生态修复以免在未来出现连通性夹点。本研究通过评估京津冀地区两种情景下的全域连通格局,为生物多样性保护的气候适应性规划提供了科学依据。

1980-2020年极端气候变化对京津冀玉米产量的影响

基于1980-2020年京津冀地区25个国家级气象台站气象数据与8个典型站点玉米单产数据,通过线性回归、反距离权重插值、M-K检验、Pearson相关性等方法,分析了1980-2020年逐日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、生长度日等变化对京津冀地区玉米产量的影响。结果表明:(1)1980-2020年京津冀地区生长度日(GDD)、高温指数[极端最高气温(TXx)、高温日数(Htd)]呈显著上升趋势,上升速率分别为58.31℃·d·10a^(-1)、0.39℃·10a^(-1)、0.96d·10a^(-1);低温指数[极端最低气温(TNn)、低温日数(Ltd)]显著下降,下降速率分别为0.28℃·10a^(-1)、2.8d·10a^(-1)。突变分析结果显示,高温指数比低温指数突变更为剧烈,1980-2020年京津冀地区增温趋势明显。(2)极端气温指数存在空间差异性,高温指数高值区主要集中在经济发达城市(北京、天津),低温指数高值区集中在北部(张北)、西南部(邢台)等地。(3)玉米实际单产呈波动上升趋势,玉米气候产量波动变幅大(-1179~831kg·hm^(-2))。1990-2020年京津冀地区气候丰年有3个(2004年、2005年、2006年)、气候歉年有2个(1999年和2000年)。相关性分析表明GDD、TXx、Htd为京津冀地区玉米产量变化的主要响应指数;结合多项式拟合曲线可知,当TXx≥36℃、Htd≥4d时,玉米气候产量呈下降态势。

基于ISM-MICMAC模型的京津冀跨域生态环境协同治理隐性障碍研究

跨域生态环境协同治理目前存在环境治理低效、协同效应欠佳现象,尚未形成稳定的治理格局。论文基于专家访谈和问卷调查数据,采用解释结构模型(ISM)、MICMAC等方法,从系统视角剖析了京津冀跨域生态环境协同治理隐性障碍之间的递阶层级结构关系和内在作用机理。研究表明:(1)京津冀三地政府在理念认知和利益结构上的差异是根源性隐性障碍,生态环境的公共物品性以及跨区域协同治理组织领导力与权威性问题对协同治理有显著负面影响;(2)政绩评估体系片面化、各行政区内部部门权责重叠以及信息和资源共享不充分等问题是主要障碍;(3)生态环境补偿不到位、预期收益不足以及市场调节不到位导致跨区域生态环境协同治理市场驱动力不足。三地政府应在理念认知和利益结构相互包容下,打破信任壁垒,创建互惠互利且足够稳定的协同网络,建立高效灵活对话机制、降低政府间沟通协调成本,方能化解目前的协同治理低效的困境,为推动京津冀高质量协同发展奠定良好基础。

基于GTWR-LightGBM模型的京津冀地区近地面SO_(2)浓度估算

文章利用Sentinel-5P卫星提供的SO_(2)柱浓度数据(TROPOMI-L3 SO_(2))和ERA5再分析气象数据作为估算变量,将能够捕获时空信息的GTWR模型和使用了按叶子生长算法的LightGBM模型组合在一起,构建了GTWR-LightGBM模型,基于该模型对京津冀地区近地面SO_(2)浓度进行估算。结果表明:(1)GTWR-LightGBM模型估算近地面SO_(2)浓度精度最高,十折交叉验证R^(2)、RMSE和MAE分别为0.90、2.88μg/m^(3)和1.93μg/m^(3),优于AdaBoost、GBDT、RF、LightGBM、GTWR、GTWR-Adaboost、GTWR-GBDT和GTWRRF等模型,同时模型在季节尺度上的验证结果均较为良好。(2)在时间分布上,2019年京津冀地区的近地面SO_(2)月均浓度总体呈现先下降后上升的“V”型趋势,SO_(2)浓度月均值在1月达到最高,在7月降到最低,其中5月和6月呈现小幅上升趋势,且2019年该地区近地面SO_(2)浓度存在明显的季节性差异,四季浓度大小趋势为:冬季>春季>秋季>夏季。(3)在空间分布上,SO_(2)浓度总体均表现出局部高污染和南高北低的分布特征,在人口密度大,工业集中的南部平原地区呈现高值状态,在高海拔,人口密度小,工业排放少的北部地区呈现低值状态。

京津冀医疗协同发展的制约因素及政策优化——基于米特-霍恩政策执行模型

目的:分析京津冀医疗协同发展的制约因素,提出政策优化建议。方法:基于米特-霍恩模型,从政策执行角度分析京津冀医疗协同发展的制约因素。结果:政策目标、政策资源、执行方式、执行机构特征、系统环境、执行者意向6个方面因素制约了京津冀医疗协同发展,且各因素之间相互联系、相互作用。结论:在政策执行过程中必须权衡利弊,不断优化政策,推动京津冀医疗协同长远发展。

基于改进的Faster R-CNN污水处理厂目标提取

目的为解决传统污水处理厂检测耗时耗力,很难满足大范围、高频次污水处理厂监测的问题,方法选取国产高分二号卫星影像(GF-2)数据作为样本制作来源,选择京津冀地区作为研究区域,以深度学习技术作为基础,提出一种面向污水处理厂目标提取的自适应可变形卷积网络(adaptive deformable convolution network,ADCN)。结果消融实验结果表明,随着卷积神经网络深度逐步递增,模型精确度和召回率均有所提高;通过特征金字塔融合的多尺度特征,有效弥补了小目标漏检的缺陷,ADCN在以上基础上增加的可变形卷积和可变形区域池化,在提高精度的同时,可明显改善边框的回归精度,ADCN在精度为85%的前提下,召回率达到95.1%;对比实验表明,相比于SSD,YOLO,Retinanet,Faster R-CNN算法,ADCN的mAP精度最高,达95.32%,同时该算法在大、中、小三种尺度的污水处理厂提取的结果中表现优异;通过ADCN对京津冀地区的污水处理厂进行提取,共提取京津冀地区污水处理厂152个,其中北京15个、天津26个,河北111个,人工对比后误检为17个,检出率为92.68%。结论通过结合深度学习技术和遥感影像数据,可以大范围、快速提取污水处理厂目标,有效解决传统污水处理厂检测耗时问题,提高对污水处理厂的管理和监控。

1992-2020年京津冀全要素生产率的估算——基于3种估计方法

基于1992-2020年京津冀3地宏观数据,利用索洛余值法、隐性变量法和数据包络分析3种方法,测算京津冀3地全要素生产率水平、增长率以及对经济增长贡献度等重要指标。结果显示:北京全要素生产率水平明显高于天津、河北;不同方法测算的全要素生产率增长率具有相同变化趋势,天津、河北两地的增长率变化趋势较一致,但与北京的增长率变化趋势不一致;京津冀区域的全要素生产率增长乏力,增长出现放缓甚至略微下降的局面;京津冀的经济增长主要来源于要素投入而非全要素生产率的提高;全要素生产率的增长,主要来源于技术进步而非效率提高。

基于“末端控制-区域协同”的京津冀地区碳减排效应及时空特征分析

近年来,协同推进区域碳减排已被上升为国家重要战略,作为我国最发达经济圈之一的京津冀地区,始终将统筹环境治理作为推动区域协同发展的重点领域。然而,现有研究缺乏从京津冀地区总体视角,通过一致的比较框架来探究3省市碳排放与地区协同发展之间的区域协同减排效应。本研究选用单位国内生产总值(GDP)的碳排放量作为指标,并创新性地在末端控制-区域协同分析框架下,通过对数平均分裂指数(LMDI)方法量化部门末端控制、区域协同减排效应和社会经济发展对碳减排的影响。结果表明,部门末端控制措施对京津冀地区碳减排影响较小,非控制、控制以及基线3种情景下京津冀区域碳排放浓度依次下降,相较非控制情景,后两者降幅分别为0.0727%、25.3763%,区域协同减排效应对于碳减排影响潜力巨大。河北省是京津冀地区区域协同减排效应碳减排重要突破口,且2014—2021年京津冀地区区域协同减排效应带来的碳减排主要归因于产业结构、家庭能源使用水平、能源强度等驱动因素。

基于Global Malmquist-Luenberger(GML)指数模型的物流业绿色全要素生产率测算分析——以2010—2020年京津冀13个城市为例

构建Global Malmquist-Luenberger (GML)指数模型对2010—2020年京津冀区域13个城市的物流业绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)进行测度,并对生产率变化、指数分解、区域差异、收敛性情况展开一系列分析。主要结论有:(1)整体来看,京津冀区域的物流业GTFP主要源于绿色技术进步(GBPG)驱动,GBPG累积提升约10.63%,绿色技术效率(GEC)下降明显;“十二五”时期的GML指数波动较大,“十三五”时期趋于平稳提升。(2)观测期内京津冀三地物流业绿色全要素生产率发展成效差异明显,仅河北实现了物流业GTFP提升,GBPG增长率高达25.18%,特别是张家口、邢台、衡水和秦皇岛四市在“十三五”时期已实现了GEC和GBPG双驱动发展;北京近年来物流业GTFP反弹提升明显,但GEC指数仍处于较低水平;天津的GBPG指数和GEC指数均有不同程度降低。(3)京津冀、津冀和河北城市组的物流业GTFP均通过了绝对β和条件β收敛检验,行政壁垒效应的存在导致三地收敛速度有所差异,河北城市组收敛速度最快,京津冀城市组最慢。

灾害冲击下区域物流韧性测度与提升策略--以“2023·7”京津冀特大雨洪灾害为例

气候变化叠加百年变局影响下,高频高损灾害冲击成为物流系统面临的重大挑战。为完整量化评价灾害冲击对区域物流系统的全过程韧性扰动,基于“2023·7”京津冀特大雨洪灾害案例,通过收集暴雨前后气象与物流运行大数据,对比识别分析灾害冲击前、中、后区域物流网络服务变化特征,提出考虑区域受灾时空异质性的物流韧性测度和损失评估方法,多角度构建冗余性、恢复性、稳健性、应变性和适应性等五位一体的“5R”物流韧性评价指标体系和区域物流整体韧性测度指数,多维表征受灾不同阶段的区域物流韧性能力。研究发现,本次特大雨洪灾害属于短时局部重大冲击,造成区域物流系统公路运费损失约300亿元,京津冀区域物流整体韧性指数为0.91,整体韧性能力较强,建议围绕平时稳健运行、灾前能力冗余、灾中抵抗冲击、灾后快速恢复等四个方面持续提升物流主动韧性水平。