Scientific Advances and Weather Services of the China Meteorological Administration’s National Forecasting Systems during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics

Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational techniques,and experience.This made providing meteorological services for this event particularly challenging.The China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,achieved breakthroughs in research on short-and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical predictions.Several key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed.A comprehensive framework,known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics,was established.Some of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in China.The meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and quality.This included achievements such as the“100-meter level,minute level”downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 days.Around 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed,and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA’s operational national forecasting systems.These accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative,in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the CMA.This program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO’s high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project(SMART2022),and continues to play an important role in their Regional Association(RA)II Research Development Project(Hangzhou RDP).Therefore,the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming highimpact weather forecasting activities.This article provides an overview and assessment of this program and the operational national forecasting systems.

Probabilistic Wind Gust Forecasting during the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics

The probabilistic forecast of wind gusts poses a significant challenge during the post-processing of numerical model outputs.Comparative analysis of probabilistic forecasting methods plays a crucial role in enhancing forecast accuracy.Within the context of meteorological services for alpine skiing at the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics,The ECMWF ensemble products were used to evaluate six post-processing methods.These methods include ensemble model output statistics(EMOS),backpropagation neural networks(BP),particle swarm optimization algorithms with backpropagation neural networks(PSO),truncated normal distributions,truncated logarithmic distributions,and generalized extreme value(GEV) distributions.The performance of these methods in predicting gust probabilities at five observation points along a ski track was compared.All six methods exhibited a substantial reduction in forecast errors compared to the original ECMWF products;however,the ability to correct the model forecast results varied significantly across different wind speed ranges.Specifically,the EMOS,truncated normal distribution,truncated logarithmic distribution,and GEV distribution demonstrated advantages in low wind-speed ranges,whereas the BP and PSO methods exhibit lower forecast errors for high wind-speed events.Furthermore,this study affirms the rationality of utilizing the statistical characteristics derived from ensemble forecasts as probabilistic forecast factors.The application of probability integral transform(PIT) and quantile–quantile(QQ) plots demonstrates that gust variations at the majority of observation sites conform to the GEV distribution,thereby indicating the potential for further enhanced forecast accuracy.The results also underscore the significant utility of the PSO hybrid model,which amalgamates particle swarm optimization with a BP neural network,in the probabilistic forecasting of strong winds within the field of meteorology.

Quality Improvement of Slow Traffic Space in Shijingshan District under the Background of Winter Olympics: A Case Study of Lugu Street of Shijingshan District

In the context of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics, the quality improvement of slow traffic space in Shijingshan District faces many challenges. Through the exploration of “slow traffic space” and its design concept and strategy theory, the problem of slow traffic space is sorted out from the aspects of policy background, spatial form and cultural construction, with Lugu Street as an example. Based on the unique cultural resources in the district, the optimization strategies are proposed from the aspects of spatial form improvement, unsupervised technology utilization, enhancement of residents’ willingness to slowly traffic and Winter Olympics culture shaping. In addition, a slow traffic space improvement scheme with easy implementation, convenient access and rich connotation is formed, in order to provide new methods and ideas for improving the quality of slow traffic space.

Comparison and Analysis of Data at Traffic Meteorological Observation Station during Beijing Winter Olympic Games Period

This paper presents a comparison and analysis method of data at traffic meteorological observation station during Beijing Winter Olympic Games period based on Grubbs criterion. By comparing the data of a set of standard multi-element observation stations with the data of multiple measured traffic stations, the outliers of each element data at each station were analyzed. It could provide data support for the maintenance of Zhangjiakou traffic meteorological observation station and a guarantee for the accuracy of forest service during Beijing Winter Olympic Games period.

Machine Learning-Based Temperature and Wind Forecasts in the Zhangjiakou Competition Zone during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games

Weather forecasting for the Zhangjiakou competition zone of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games is a challenging task due to its complex terrain.Numerical weather prediction models generally perform poorly for cold air pools and winds over complex terrains,due to their low spatiotemporal resolution and limitations in the description of dynamics,thermodynamics,and microphysics in mountainous areas.This study proposes an ensemble-learning model,named ENSL,for surface temperature and wind forecasts at the venues of the Zhangjiakou competition zone,by integrating five individual models—linear regression,random forest,gradient boosting decision tree,support vector machine,and artificial neural network(ANN),with a ridge regression as meta model.The ENSL employs predictors from the high-resolution ECMWF model forecast(ECMWF-HRES) data and topography data,and targets from automatic weather station observations.Four categories of predictors(synoptic-pattern related fields,surface element fields,terrain,and temporal features) are fed into ENSL.The results demonstrate that ENSL achieves better performance and generalization than individual models.The root-mean-square error(RMSE) for the temperature and wind speed predictions is reduced by 48.2% and 28.5%,respectively,relative to ECMWF-HRES.For the gust speed,the performance of ENSL is consistent with ANN(best individual model) in the whole dataset,whereas ENSL outperforms on extreme gust samples(42.7% compared with 38.7% obtained by ECMWF-HRES in terms of RMSE reduction).Sensitivity analysis of predictors in the four categories shows that ENSL fits their feature importance rankings and physical explanations effectively.

Optimization of COVID-19 prevention and control measures during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics:a model-based study

Background:The continuous mutation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has made the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic complicated to predict and posed a severe challenge to the Beijing 2022Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympics held in February and March 2022.Methods:During the preparations for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics,we established a dynamic model with pulsedetection and isolation efect to evaluate the efect of epidemic prevention and control measures such as entry policies,contact reduction,nucleic acid testing,tracking,isolation,and health monitoring in a closed-loop managementenvironment,by simulating the transmission dynamics in assumed scenarios.We also compared the importance ofeach parameter in the combination of intervention measures through sensitivity analysis.Results:At the assumed baseline levels,the peak of the epidemic reached on the 57th day.During the simulationperiod(100 days),13,382 people infected COVID-19.The mean and peak values of hospitalized cases were 2650and 6746,respectively.The simulation and sensitivity analysis showed that:(1)the most important measures to stopCOVID-19 transmission during the event were daily nucleic acid testing,reducing contact among people,and dailyhealth monitoring,with cumulative infections at 0.04%,0.14%,and 14.92%of baseline levels,respectively(2)strictlyimplementing the entry policy and reducing the number of cases entering the closed-loop system could delay thepeak of the epidemic by 9 days and provide time for medical resources to be mobilized;(3)the risk of environmentaltransmission was low.Conclusions:Comprehensive measures under certain scenarios such as reducing contact,nucleic acid testing,health monitoring,and timely tracking and isolation could efectively prevent virus transmission.Our research resultsprovided an important reference for formulating prevention and control measures during the Winter Olympics,andno epidemic spread in the closed-loop during the games indirectly proved the rationality of our research results.

High-quality Development Paths of Ice-snow Tourism in China from the Perspective of the Winter Olympics

Preparations for the Beijing Winter Olympics have promoted the rapid development of ice-snow tourism in China,which contributes to achieving the goal of having“300 million people participate in ice-snow sports”.This paper analyzes the status quo and problems associated with the growth of ice-snow tourism in China based on the methods of documentation and field investigation.The results indicate that China’s efforts have born abundant fruits.Notwithstanding,there are still some problems due to the limited time and hastened process of ice-snow tourism development,including unreasonable exploitation,low-quality products and services,imperfect investment and financing system,inadequate management,a single marketing mode,and insufficient talent teams.Compared with developed countries in Europe and the United States,ice-snow tourism in China is in the stage of rapid development.To achieve the high-quality development of ice-snow tourism in China,this paper proposes actions from eight aspects which involve policy,products and services,marketing,safety management and control,talent teams,standardization construction,science and technology,and community participation.This study can provide references for the high-quality development of ice-snow tourism in China,as well as perfecting Chinese theoretical research on ice-snow tourism.

A Pre-game Evaluation of the Tourism Legacy of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games

The role of tourism in social and economic development and stabilizing the Olympic legacy has been widely discussed.Beijing is the first“Dual-Olympic City”.For the first time,the Beijing Winter Olympics has adopted a model of three competition areas,which has attracted much attention to the study of its tourism legacy.In the legacy plan,the construction of the“Beijing-Zhangjiakou Sports Culture and Tourism Belt”was proposed.The development of ice and snow tourism and the cultivation of the ice and snow tourism market is also reflected in many policy documents and government actions.The scientific planning before the competition laid a good foundation for the sustainable development of its ice and snow tourism heritage.This research combines Olympic legacy research with tourism destination theory,and focuses on ice and snow tourism directly related to the Winter Olympics and the significance of pre-event planning for legacy protection.At the same time,the improvement of the quality of ice and snow tourism destinations is embedded in the pre-Olympic legacy,and opinions and suggestions on how to ensure the stability of the legacy after the games are given.This study uses the literature review method and the second-hand materials survey research method,then through establishing a tourism legacy pre-game evaluation model and the use of geographic information,government reports,policies,publicly released statistics and news reports,etc..It explores the legacy of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Paralympics,aiming to lay the foundation for preserving the continuous value of the ice and snow tourism legacy during and after the Olympics.The results indicate that the Beijing Winter Olympics has made relatively complete plans and reliable progress in both tangible and intangible legacy.Complete tourism infrastructure,an optimistic sport and cultural atmosphere,and the improvement of residents’health concept and sports awareness have become boosters for the development of ice and snow tourism in the Beijing-Zhangjiakou region.

Sustainable Development of Ice and Snow Tourism-Theory&Empirical Studies:Preface

The Beijing Winter Olympics brought a historical miracle to the development of China’s ice and snow tourism.It is both an opportunity and a challenge to reap the extra dividends of the times and to develop China’s ice and snow tourism.By selecting 18 academic papers,this special issue deeply discusses the status quo and the future measures of ice and snow tourism in China from three aspects:ice and snow tourism development and management,the ice and snow tourism experience and its influencing factors,and ice and snow tourism impact assessment.Moreover,one part entitled“Tourism Culture and Ecotourism”has been set up to emphasize those cutting-edge research topics.It is worth mentioning that this issue is in-depth and has profound connotations.First of all,the research area ranges from national to regional to the city-level,including both longitudinal and horizontal research.In additon,the research methods are practical,innovative,and at the frontier of scientific research,and include industrial correlation analysis methods,kernel density,spatial autocorrelation and other geospatial analysis methods,content analysis methods,sentiment analysis methods,structural equation models,Delphi methods,spatial statistics methods,geographic detector method and many others.In general,this special issue combines qualitative research with quantitative research,provides a variety of theoretical perspectives such as perceived value theory,institutional evolution theory,etc.,and builds various useful models like the pre-competition evaluation model for ice and snow tourism heritage,the consumption skill-travel radius decision-making influence model under the moderating effect of the ski resort comprehensive leisure environment,the evaluation model of the suitability of glacier tourism resource development,the model of the relationship between tourists’experience value and loyalty in the context of ice and snow tourism,among others.These studies are expected to provide theoretical and practical guidance for the development of ice and snow tourism in the post-Winter Olympics era,and help ice and snow tourism develop in a sustainable and high-quality direction.

Evaluation and Promotion Model of Tourist Satisfaction in Ice and Snow Tourism Destinations

The successful bid for the Beijing Winter Olympics has brought historic opportunities for the development of ice and snow tourism in China.An index system for the evaluation of tourist satisfaction in ice and snow tourism destinations was constructed from the target layer-factor layer-index layer approach in this paper.Taking tourists with ice and snow tourism experience as the research object,and integrating a questionnaire survey and the Importance-Performance Analysis(IPA)method,a total of 840 valid questionnaires were collected to assess the satisfaction of tourists in snow and ice tourism destinations,and the promotion model of tourist satisfaction in ice and snow tourism destinations was put forward.This process led to three main results.(1)Ice and snow tourists in China are characterized as young and better-educated,with college students aged 19 to 25 as the main consumer group.More than 70%of ice and snow tourists are pretty satisfied with the current development of ice and snow destinations in China,and are willing to participate again.(2)Other than“ice and snow souvenirs”,tourists’perceptions of importance are all higher than the level of perceived satisfaction,and the importance values of the 13 indicators including“Scenic spot security”and“Diversity of ice and snow entertainment and sports”are especially high,showing that tourists have high expectations and demands of the destinations.However,the perceived satisfaction level of tourists for all indexes is generally low,mostly at the general satisfaction level,indicating that ice and snow tourism destinations have only partially met the demands of ice and snow tourists,and there is still much room for improvement.(3)After IPA analysis,five suggestions for improving the satisfaction of tourists in ice and snow tourism destinations were put forward,including diversification of the tourism business model,construction of tourism facilities,a market diversified cultivation model,a humanized mode of tourism service and a refined management model.The results of this study will help to enrich the theory of ice and snow tourist satisfaction and promote the high-quality development of China's ice and snow tourism in the post-Winter Olympics era.