AN ANALYSIS OF THE APPLICABILITY OF FUZZY CLUSTERING IN ESTABLISHING AN INDEX FOR THE EVALUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE SATISFACTION

An evaluation index is a prerequisite for the scientific evaluation of a public meteorological service.This paper aims to explore a technical method for determining and screening evaluation indicators.Based on public satisfaction survey data obtained in Wafangdian,China in 2010,this study investigates the suitability of fuzzy clustering analysis method in establishing an evaluation index.Through quantitative analysis of multilayer fuzzy clustering of various evaluation indicators,correlation analysis indicates that if the results of clustering were identical for two evaluation indicators in the same sub-evaluation layer,then one indicator could be removed,or the two indicators merged.For evaluation indicators in different sub-evaluation layers,although clustering reveals attribute correlations,these indicators may not be substituted for one another.Analysis of the applicability of the fuzzy clustering method shows that it plays a certain role in the establishment and correction of an evaluation index.

Establishment of Prediction Method of Tourism Meteorological Index in Langzhong Ancient City

Based on the meteorological data of Langzhong from 2010 to 2020,the human body comfort index was calculated,and tourism climate comfort was evaluated to establish the prediction equation of tourism meteorological index.OLS was used to compare the correlation between actual tourist flow and tourism meteorological index and test the model effect.Average correlation coefficient R was 0.7017,so the correlation was strong,and P value was 0.The two were significantly correlated at 0.01 level(bilateral).It can be seen that the forecast equation of tourism meteorological index had a strong correlation with the actual number of tourists,and the predicted value was basically close to the actual situation,and the forecast effect is good.

Xingnao Kaiqiao needling method for acute ischemic stroke： a meta-analysis of safety and efficacy

OBJECTIVE： To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of the Xingnao Kaiqiao needling method for treating acute ischemic stroke.DATA SOURCES： We retrieved relevant randomized controlled trials involving Xingnao Kaiqiao acupuncture for treatment of acute ischemic stroke. The China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Weipu Information Resources System, Wanfang Medical Data System, Chinese Biomedical Literature Database, Cochrane Library, and Pub Med were searched from June 2006 to March 2016.DATA SELECTION： We analyzed randomized and semi-randomized clinical controlled trials that compared Xingnao Kaiqiao acupuncture with various control treatments, such as conventional drugs or other acupuncture therapies, for treatment of acute ischemic stroke. The quality of articles was evaluated according to the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions（Version 5.1）, and the study was carried out using Cochrane system assessment methods. Rev Man 5.2 was used for the meta-analysis of the included studies.OUTCOME MEASURES： The mortality rate, disability rate, activities of daily living（Barthel Index）, and clinical efficacy were observed.RESULTS： Twelve studies met the inclusion criteria for this review. The meta-analysis showed that between Xingnao Kaiqiao acupuncture and the control treatment, Xingnao Kaiqiao acupuncture reduced the disability rate [risk ratio（RR） = 0.51, 95% confidence interval（CI） = 0.27-0.98, z = 2.03, P 〈 0.05], elevated the activities of daily living（weighted mean difference = 12.23, 95% CI： 3.66-20.08, z = 2.80, P 〈 0.005）, and had greater clinical efficacy（RR = 1.61, 95% CI： 1.23-2.09, z = 3.53, P 〈 0.0004）. However, there was no significant difference in mortality rate（RR = 0.61, 95% CI： 0.15-2.45, z = 0.70, P 〉 0.05）. CONCLUSION： The Xingnao Kaiqiao needling method is effective and safe for acute ischemic stroke. However, there was selective bias in this study, and the likelihood of measurement bias is high. Thus, more high-quality randomized controlled trials are needed to provide reliable evidence of the efficacy and safety of Xingnao Kaiqiao acupuncture in the treatment of acute ischemic stroke.

Water Quality Analysis of Fuping Section of the Shichuan River Based on Different Evaluation Methods

In order to study the water quality of the Shichuan River basin in Fuping,Shaanxi Province,based on improved Nemerow index method,comprehensive pollution index method and principal component analysis method,eight water quality indexes such as pH,dissolved oxygen(DO),total dissolved solids(TDS),COD,total hardness,total phosphorus,total nitrogen and Zn in three monitoring sections of Fuping section of the Shichuan River in Shaanxi Province were detected and analyzed.The results show that the water quality of the surface water in the Shichuan River basin is gradeⅢorⅣwater,that is,the water is slightly polluted and moderately polluted.It is necessary to monitor the water quality after regulation and clarify the main factors causing the water pollution.

The Spatial Sensitivity Analysis of Evapotranspiration using Penman-Monteith Method at Grid Scale

The need to allocate the existing water in a sustainable manner, even with the projected population growth, has made to assess the consumptive use or evapotranspiration (ET), which determines the irrigation demand. As underscored in the literature, Penman-Monteith method which is a combination of aerodynamic and energy balance method is widely used and accepted as the method of estimation of ET. However, the application of Penman-Monteith relies on many climate parameters such as relative humidity, solar radiation, temperature, and wind speed. Therefore, there exists a need to determine the parameters that are most sensitive and correlated with dependent variable (i.e., ET), to strengthen the knowledge base. However, the sensitivity of ET using Penman-Monteith is oftentimes estimated using meteorological data from climate stations. Such estimation of sensitivity may vary spatially and thus there exists a need to estimate sensitivity of ET spatially. Thus, in this paper, based on One-AT-A-Time (OAT) method, a spatial sensitivity tool that can geographically encompass all the best available climate datasets to produce ET and its sensitivity at different spatial scales is developed. The spatial tool is developed as a Python toolbox in ArcGIS using Python, an open source programming language, and the ArcPy site-package of ArcGIS. The developed spatial tool is demonstrated using the meteorological data from Automated Weather Data Network in Nebraska in 2010. To summarize the outcome of the sensitivity analysis using OAT method, sensitivity indices are developed for each raster cell. The demonstration of the tool shows that, among the considered parameters, the computed ET using Penman-Monteith is highly sensitive to solar radiation followed by temperature for the state of Nebraska, as depicted by the sensitivity index. The computed sensitivity index of wind speed and the relative humidity are not that significant compared to the sensitivity index of solar radiation and temperature.

Study on the evaluation index system and evaluation method for self-elevating drilling unit design

In the process of designing self-elevating drilling unit, it is important, yet complicated, to use comparison and filtering to select the optimum scheme from the feasible ones. In this research, an index system and methodology for the evaluation of self-elevating drilling unit was proposed. Based on this, a multi-objective combinatorial optimization model was developed, using the improved grey relation Analysis （GRA）, in which the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） was used to determine the weights of the evaluating indices. It considered the connections within the indices, reflecting the objective nature of things, and also considered the subjective interests of ship owners and the needs of designers. The evaluation index system and evaluation method can be used in the selection of an optimal scheme and advanced assessment. A case study shows the index system and evaluation method are scientific, reasonable, and easy to put into practice. At the same time, such an evaluation index system and evaluation method will be helpful for making decisions for other mobile platforms.

Local and regional flood frequency analysis based on hierarchical Bayesian model in Dongting Lake Basin,China

This study developed a hierarchical Bayesian(HB)model for local and regional flood frequency analysis in the Dongting Lake Basin,in China.The annual maximum daily flows from 15 streamflow-gauged sites in the study area were analyzed with the HB model.The generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution was selected as the extreme flood distribution,and the GEV distribution location and scale parameters were spatially modeled through a regression approach with the drainage area as a covariate.The Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method with Gibbs sampling was employed to calculate the posterior distribution in the HB model.The results showed that the proposed HB model provided satisfactory Bayesian credible intervals for flood quantiles,while the traditional delta method could not provide reliable uncertainty estimations for large flood quantiles,due to the fact that the lower confidence bounds tended to decrease as the return periods increased.Furthermore,the HB model for regional analysis allowed for a reduction in the value of some restrictive assumptions in the traditional index flood method,such as the homogeneity region assumption and the scale invariance assumption.The HB model can also provide an uncertainty band of flood quantile prediction at a poorly gauged or ungauged site,but the index flood method with L-moments does not demonstrate this uncertainty directly.Therefore,the HB model is an effective method of implementing the flexible local and regional frequency analysis scheme,and of quantifying the associated predictive uncertainty.

Source analysis and risk evaluation of heavy metal in the river sediment of polymetallic mining area:Taking the Tonglüshan skarn type Cu-Fe-Au deposit as an example,Hubei section of the Yangtze River Basin,China

In this paper,25 sampling points of overlying deposits in Tonglushan mining area,Daye City,Hubei Province,China were tested for heavy metal content to explore pollution characteristics,pollution sources and ecological risks of heavy metals in sediments.A geo-accumulation index method was used to evaluate the degree of heavy metal pollution in the sediment.The mean sediment quality guideline quotient was used for evaluating the ecological risk level of heavy metal in the sediment.And a method of correlation analysis,clustering analysis,and principal component analysis was used for preliminary analysis on the source of heavy metal in the sediment.It was indicated that there was extremely heavy metal pollution in the sediment,among which Cd was extremely polluted,Cu strongly contaminated,Zn,As,and Hg moderately contaminated,and Pb,Cr,and Ni were slightly contaminated.It was also indicated by the mean sediment quality guideline-quotient result that there was a high ecological risk of heavy metals in the sediment,and 64%of the sample sites had extremely high hidden biotoxic effects.For distribution,the contamination of branches was worse than that of the main channel of Daye Dagang,and the deposition of each heavy metal was mainly influenced by the distance from this sample site to the sewage draining exit of a tailings pond.The source analysis showed that the heavy metals in the sediment come from pollution discharging of mining and beneficiation companies,tailings ponds,smelting companies,and transport vehicles.In the study area,due to the influence of heavy metal discharging from these sources,the ecotoxicity of heavy metals in the sediment was extremely high,and Cd was the most toxic pollutant.The research figured out the key restoration area and elements for ecological restoration in the sediment of the Tonglüshan mining area,which could be referenced by monitoring and governance of heavy metal pollution in the sediment of the polymetallic mining area.

Index system and methods for comprehensive assessment of cross-border power grid interconnection projects

With the global economy integration and progress in energy transformation,it has become a general trend to surpass national boundaries to achieve wider and optimal energy resource allocations.Consequently,there is a critical n eed to adopt scie ntific approaches in assessi ng cross-border power grid interconnection projects.First,con sidering the promotion of large-scale renewable energy resources and improvements in system adequacy,a comprehensive assessment index system,including costs,socio-economic benefits,environmental benefits,and technical benefits,is established in this study.Second,a synthetic assessment framework is proposed for cross-border power grid interconnection projects based on the index system comprising cost-benefit analysis,with market and network simulations,iterative methods for indicator weight evaluation,and technique for order preferenee by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)method for the project rankings.Fin ally,by assessi ng and comparing three cross-border projects betwee n Europe and Asia,the proposed index system and assessment framework have been proved to be effective and feasible;the results of this system can thus support investment decision-making related to such projects in the future.

Application of rigorous coupled-wave theory on quality analysis of natural jadeite

In order to make more available methods for natural jadeite quality evaluation,this study applied rigorous coupled wave theory to calculate and simulate the reflection characteristics of various natural jadeites,and establish evaluation standard based on the relationship between refractive index and reflectivity and responses of reflection efficiency to refractive index,grating thickness and incident angles,etc.The results suggest that reflection efficiency varies significantly as a function of the natural jadeite quality,which can provide a new method to evaluate natural jadeite.

Harmoniousness analysis of total amount control of water use

Based on the fundamental principles of total amount control of water use, the harmony theory was used in this study to develop a concept of the degree of harmony of total amount control of water use. Based on this concept, the harmoniousness of total amount control of water use was analyzed in terms of the supply and demand of water resources, water resources management, water use benefits, and water-saving level. An evaluation index system of the degree of harmony of total amount control of water use was established, and a method for calculation of the degree of harmony of total amount control of water use was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and fuzzy comprehensive analysis （FCA） methods. The new evaluation index system was applied to a certain area in Jiangsu Province, China. The degree of harmony of total amount control of water use over this area was calculated for different years. Results indicate that the evaluation index system and calculation method proposed in this study are feasible, and such a harmoniousness analysis can provide scientific references for the strict water resources management system that will be implemented in China in the near future.

Efficient Fast Independent Component Analysis Algorithm with Fifth-Order Convergence

Independent component analysis （ICA） is the primary statistical method for solving the problems of blind source separation. The fast ICA is a famous and excellent algorithm and its contrast function is optimized by the quadratic convergence of Newton iteration method. In order to improve the convergence speed and the separation precision of the fast ICA, an improved fast ICA algorithm is presented. The algorithm introduces an efficient Newton＇s iterative method with fifth-order convergence for optimizing the contrast function and gives the detail derivation process and the corresponding condition. The experimental results demonstrate that the convergence speed and the separation precision of the improved algorithm are better than that of the fast ICA.

Principal component analysis and cluster analysis based orbit optimization for earth observation satellites

This paper proposes a design optimization method for the multi-objective orbit design of earth observation satellites, for which the optimality of orbit performance indices with different units, such as: total coverage time, the frequency of coverage, average time per coverage and maximum coverage gap, etc. is required simultaneously. By introducing index normalization method to convert performance indices into dimensionless variables within the range of [0, 1], a design optimization method based on the principal component analysis and cluster analysis is proposed, which consists of index normalization method, principal component analysis, multiple-level cluster analysis and weighted evaluation method. The results of orbit optimization for earth observation satellites show that the optimal orbit can be obtained by using the proposed method. The principal component analysis can reduce the total number of indices with a non-independent relationship to save computing time. Similarly, the multiple-level cluster analysis with parallel computing could save computing time.

Determination of Harmful Elements and Analysis of Pollution Level in Lysimachia christinae

[Objectives]To detect content of Pb,Cd,Hg,As,Cu,Zn,and Cr in Lysimachia christinae,and to analyze the pollution level.[Methods]Seven kinds of elements in L.christinae were determined by Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and analyzed by single index and comprehensive index.[Results]The seven heavy metal elements showed good linearity in their respective concentration ranges.The recoveries of the samples were 84.5%-109.5%,and the RSD values were 2.30%-5.10%.Comparing the measured results of heavy metal elements with the limit values stipulated in the 2020 edition of the Chinese Pharmacopoeia and other standards,the Cr element in 19 batches of samples exceeded the standard,and the Zn element in 7 batches of samples exceeded the standard.The exceeding rates were 100.0%and 36.8%,respectively;the content of other heavy metal elements did not exceed the standard.The order of individual index from large to small was Cr,Zn,Cd,Hg,Cu,As,and Pb,and the average comprehensive pollution level was mild pollution and above.[Conclusions]L.christinae was mainly polluted by Cr,followed by Zn;this study can provide basic data for drafting of the limit standard for heavy metal elements in L.christinae.

A new method of formation evaluation for fractured and caved carbonate reservoirs:A case study from the Lundong area,Tarim Basin,China

The carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin are characterized by low matrix-porosity,heterogeneity and anisotropy,which make it difficult to predict and evaluate these reservoirs.The reservoir formations in Lundong area experienced a series of diagenesis and tectonic evolution stages.And secondary storage spaces such as fractures and dissolution caves were developed while nearly all the primary pores have disappeared.Based on a summary of different types of storage spaces and their responses in conventional logs,FMI and full waveform sonic logs which are sensitive to different reservoirs,the comprehensive probability index （CPI） method is applied to evaluating the reservoirs and a standard of reservoir classification is established.By comparing the evaluation results with actual welllogging results,the method has proven to be practical for formation evaluation of carbonate reservoirs,especially for the fractured carbonate reservoirs.In reservoir fluid identification,the multivariate stepwise discriminant analysis （MSDA） method is introduced.Combining the CPI method and MSDA method,comprehensive formation evaluation has been performed for fractured and caved carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin.Additionally,on the basis of secondary pore inversion results,another new method of formation evaluation is also proposed in the discussion part of this paper.Through detailed application result analysis,the method shows a promising capability for formation evaluation of complex carbonate reservoirs dominated by various secondary pores such as holes,caves,and cracks.

Ecological impact assessment method of highways in Tibetan Plateau:A Case study of Gonghe-Yushu Expressway

In recent years,the ecological environment along highways in Tibetan Plateau has been severely affected due to the rapid construction of highways.In order to solve the problems of multiple indicators and inconsistent criteria in the ecological impact assessment of highways,and to scientifically screen assessment indicators,the paper proposes a multi-round indicator screening method,which combines literature analysis,expert rating,and statistical analysis.Based on this screening method,normalized difference vegetation index,land surface temperature,elevation,and normalized difference soil index are screened out.Combined with multiple linear regression,an ecological impact assessment model is established and applied to ecological impact assessment of Gonghe-Yushu Expressway.The results show that the expressway construction is the first driving force for the deterioration of the ecological environment along the roadside,and its interference range on the desert grassland ecosystem is greater than that on the agroforestry system.The ecological environment within 150 m on both sides of the expressway should be protected.

Parameter analysis of a photonic crystal fiber with raised-core index profile based on effective index method

Photonic crystal fibers （PCFs） with a stepped raised-core profile and one layer equally spaced holes in the cladding are analyzed. Using effective index method and considering a raised step refractive index difference between the index of the core and the effective index of the cladding, we improve the characteristic parameters such as numerical aperture and V-parameter, and reduce its bending loss to about one tenth of a conventional PCF. Implementing such a structure in PCFs may be one step forward to achieve low loss PCFs for communication applications.

Classification of Hourly Clearness Index of Solar Radiation in the District of Yamoussoukro

The exploitation of systems using solar energy as a source of energy is not fluctuations free because of short passage of clouds on solar radiation. The amplitude, the persistence and the frequency of these fluctuations should be analyzed with appropriate tools, instead of focusing on their location over time. The analysis of these fluctuations should use the instantaneous clearness index whose distribution is given as a first approximation which is independent not only of the season but also of the site. It is important to evaluate the potential solar energy in a region. Indeed such evaluation helps the decision-makers in their reflections on agricultural or photovoltaic solar projects. Then this study was conducted for a predictive purpose. The method used in our work combines the classification method which is the hierarchical ascending classification and two partitioning methods, the principal component?analysis and the K-means method. The partitioning method enabled to?achieve a number of well-known situations (in advance) that are representative of the day. The study was based on the data of a climatic weather station in the district of Yamoussoukro located in the center region of Côte d’Ivoire during the 2017 year. Using the clearness index, the study allowed the classification of the solar radiation in the region. Thus, it showed that only 346 days of the 365 days in 2017 were classified (95%). We identified three clusters of days, the cloudy sky (29%), the partly cloudy sky?(32%) and the clear sky (39%). The statistical tests used for the characterization?of these clusters will be detailed in a future study.

A multi-index coupling system of ice slope stability and its application

Based on the Simplified Bishop Method, the minimum safety factor of ice slope both with and without tension cracks is calculated in combination with triaxial compression tests. It is found that there exists a critical depth for each crack. Then, factors influencing ice slope stability such as slope ratio, slope height, ice cohesion, internal friction angle, unit weight and temperature were analyzed. Meanwhile, a regression equation between the aforementioned factors and safety factor is obtained, with which sensitivity analysis is carried out. The performance function is built in combination with random distribution of physical and mechanical parameters to analyze the reliability index. The Advanced First Order Second Moment Method is employed on the solution to the perfor- mance function. The one-way coupling system of ice slope stability is therefore formed based on safety factor and reliability index. Finally, an illustrated example of ice slope is provided, which shows that failure probability is relatively high, up to 6.18%, alt- hough safety factor is 2.77. Thus, it is objective and reasonable to apply the coupled system method to the slope stability rating.

A Statistical Method for Determining the Fractal Dimension of Time Series

In this paper,we present a new method for determining the fractal dimension of time series and the algorithm of H index(Hurst index).