According to the multi-project and program management theory, this paper analyzes the program generation principle and establishes a program based on progress goals. On the basis of the present situation of calculatio...According to the multi-project and program management theory, this paper analyzes the program generation principle and establishes a program based on progress goals. On the basis of the present situation of calculation of penalty for delay of the bidding section construction period with the critical path method, we studied the effects of contractor-induced delay of the bidding section construction period in detail, including the effects on the construction period of the bidding section itself, the earliest start times of the next bidding section and other subsequent bidding sections, and the construction period of the program, and then constructed a penalty model for delay of the bidding section construction period from the perspective of programs. Using the penalty model, we conducted a practical analysis of penalty for delay of the construction period of the Baoying station program in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The model can help determine the amount of penalty for delay of the construction period in bidding sections scientifically and reasonably,展开更多
The possibility and rationality of introducing an bid-winning estimate based on a reasonable low price into construction bidding mode with bill of quantities were analyzed by setting up a model for bidding and tenderi...The possibility and rationality of introducing an bid-winning estimate based on a reasonable low price into construction bidding mode with bill of quantities were analyzed by setting up a model for bidding and tendering, and the functions of the estimate of reasonable low price in the bidding were revealed. On this basis, a new bidding mode of the project with bill of quantities was pro- posed. The application of the new mode will be advantageous to the promotion of the bill of quantities in China.展开更多
This paper puts forward a new framework of multi-agent based equipment bidding system on the Web (MAEBSW). The purpose of the paper is to make the process of enterprise equipment bidding, especially the decision proce...This paper puts forward a new framework of multi-agent based equipment bidding system on the Web (MAEBSW). The purpose of the paper is to make the process of enterprise equipment bidding, especially the decision process of enterprise equipment bidding, more intelligent. The system discussed in this paper is an efficient method for the enterprises doing business electronically. We also present our opinion of the approaches to defining agents. We emphasize the importance of agent being able to provide explanation about its behavior for the user or other agents. Based on this opinion we design a new common architecture of most agents in MAEBSW.展开更多
This work suggested a novel model for obtaining optimum bidding/offering strategy to improve the benefits in case of big users.Aiming this regard,several electrical energy resources including:micro turbines,green powe...This work suggested a novel model for obtaining optimum bidding/offering strategy to improve the benefits in case of big users.Aiming this regard,several electrical energy resources including:micro turbines,green power sources(wind turbine and photovoltaic system),power storage unit such as Hydrogen storage system with fuel cell,as well as mutual treaties are taken into account in offered model.Considering various models for uncertain parameters based on their natures such as power demand,electricity market tariffs,solar irradiation,temperature and wind speed is one of the contributions of the proposed model.Uncertainty of power demand is modeled by robust optimal method whereas remain uncertain parameters are incorporated in model by stochastic method.Considering of wind speed cased is made by Weibull distribution.While,normal distribution is utilized for production of cases for electricity market tariffs,solar irradiation and temperature.In order to reduce the bidding error loss,the storage devices are corporate with green energy in power unbalanced conditions.Combined-integer linear programming method is applied for handling of pricing method profiles that have strength against considered uncertainties on power demand of big user.The obtained results confirm,the entire electrical energy supplement expenditure of big user in absence of demand uncertainty is$39.63 whereas it is augmented up to$49.47 to achieve robustness vs.demand uncertainty.Also,using of hydrogen storage system by considering the reliability index is reduced the bidding price of the system.展开更多
The bidding strategies of power suppliers to maximize their interests is of great importance.The proposed bilevel optimization model with coalitions of power suppliers takes restraint factors into consideration,such a...The bidding strategies of power suppliers to maximize their interests is of great importance.The proposed bilevel optimization model with coalitions of power suppliers takes restraint factors into consideration,such as operating cost reduction,potential cooperation,other competitors’bidding behavior,and network constraints.The upper model describes the coalition relationship between suppliers,and the lower model represents the independent system operator’s optimization without network loss(WNL)or considering network loss(CNL).Then,a novel algorithm,the evolutionary game theory algorithm(EGA)based on a hybrid particle swarm optimization and improved firefly algorithm(HPSOIFA),is proposed to solve the bi-level optimization model.The bidding behavior of the power suppliers in equilibrium with a dynamic power market is encoded as one species,with the EGA automatically predicting a plausible adaptation process for the others.Individual behavior changes are employed by the HPSOIFA to enhance the ability of global exploration and local exploitation.A novel improved firefly algorithm(IFA)is combined with a chaotic sequence theory to escape from the local optimum.In addition,the Shapley value is applied to the profit distribution of power suppliers’cooperation.The simulation,adopting the standard IEEE-30 bus system,demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method for solving the bi-level optimization problem.展开更多
The clearing price and bidding price in electricity market are two key indicators to measure whether it is reasonable or not. Based on the grey incidence analysis, this paper studies the correlation coefficient betwee...The clearing price and bidding price in electricity market are two key indicators to measure whether it is reasonable or not. Based on the grey incidence analysis, this paper studies the correlation coefficient between the clearing price and bidding price with the generation cost, the supervision and rules of the market, the supply and demand situation, the behavior of market members over the same period, which is based on the actual data of the trans-provincial centralized trading market of East China Power Grid. The results show that the factors affecting the clearing price and bidding price from largest to smallest are generation cost, supervision and rules of the market, the supply and demand situation, the behavior of market members. The conclusion is that the trans-provincial trading platform of East China Power Grid is a reasonable regional market which can discover the market cost, and regulate the market supply and demand balance, and promote healthy competition.展开更多
Bidding has long been used as a method for allocating and procuring goods and services. An acurrate and comprehensive evaluation of bidders is the key to make the bidding a successful one for tenderee. However, evalua...Bidding has long been used as a method for allocating and procuring goods and services. An acurrate and comprehensive evaluation of bidders is the key to make the bidding a successful one for tenderee. However, evaluation of bidders is a tough work and the result of evaluation is always affected by the evaluator's understanding of the standards set for evaluation, and the evaluator's expertise, experience and preferrence. We make an effort to find a method for selecting bidders as accurately as possible. A grey decision model is presented, and an example is illustrated to make the practioners know how to use the model.展开更多
Due to historic reasons China encounters some special difficulties in ESI (electricity system industry) restructuring. An easy and simple electricity value equivalent (es EVE) method for day ahead pool purchase pric...Due to historic reasons China encounters some special difficulties in ESI (electricity system industry) restructuring. An easy and simple electricity value equivalent (es EVE) method for day ahead pool purchase pricing of China is therefore presented in this paper. The es EVE method is different from two part and one part tariffs. It is more like the UK's method in form, but revised for China with some new concepts and procedure. The main contributions of it include: (1) Find two kinds of eigenvalue, namely EVEs, in an optimization model, (2) Define new concepts of virtual units and feasible region, (3) Twice merit orderings are employed successively to find marginal price. They are simple maximum and minimum comparison procedures and so on. The special economic significance of the method for China is discussed, and some suggestion for ESI restructuring based on es EVE method are provided. A case study is offered at the end of the paper.展开更多
This paper elaborated the bidding scheme design of the Central Recreational Area in Linkong Economic Zone from the perspectives of site analysis, determination of properties, design theme and principle, scheme layout ...This paper elaborated the bidding scheme design of the Central Recreational Area in Linkong Economic Zone from the perspectives of site analysis, determination of properties, design theme and principle, scheme layout and conception, in order to explore the potential enlightenments of the scheme design process, and disclose significance of site analysis and its close relationship with the scheme design.展开更多
Public bidding is the international current practice to contract construction project. But the decision on the bidding often is made according to the qualitative evaluation based on the subjective opinion of specialis...Public bidding is the international current practice to contract construction project. But the decision on the bidding often is made according to the qualitative evaluation based on the subjective opinion of specialists. Therefore, the fuzzy mathematics principle was applied and a synthetic evaluation model was established to provide an effective method for the development of quantitative bidding decision in this paper.展开更多
In optimal wind bidding strategy related literatures, it is usually assumed that the full distribution information (for example, the cumulative distribution function or the probability density function) of wind power ...In optimal wind bidding strategy related literatures, it is usually assumed that the full distribution information (for example, the cumulative distribution function or the probability density function) of wind power output is known. In real world applications, however, only very limited distribution information can be obtained. Therefore, the “optimal bidding strategy” obtained based on the hypothetical distribution may be far away from the true optimal one. In this paper, an optimal bidding strategy is obtained based on the minimax regret criterion. The salient feature of the new approach is that it requires only partial information of wind power distribution, for example, the expectation and the support set. Numerical test is then performed and the results suggest that the method established in this paper is effective.展开更多
The primary objective of this research article is to introduce Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm for solving bidding strategy in deregulated power market. Suppliers (GENCOs) and consumers (DISCOs) participate in t...The primary objective of this research article is to introduce Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm for solving bidding strategy in deregulated power market. Suppliers (GENCOs) and consumers (DISCOs) participate in the bidding process in order to maximize the profit of suppliers and benefits of the consumers. Each supplier bids strategically by choosing the bidding coefficients to counter the competitors bidding strategy. Electricity or electric power is traded through bidding in the power exchange. GENCOs sell energy to power exchange and in turn ancillary services to Independent System Operator (ISO). In this paper, Differential Evolution algorithm is proposed for solving bidding strategy problem in operation of power system under deregulated environment. An IEEE 30 bus system with six generators and two large consumers is employed to demonstrate the proposed technique. The results show the adaptability of the proposed method compared with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Monte Carlo simulation in terms of Market Clearing Price (MCP).展开更多
The bidding blocks are distributed in different regions of China,There are seven blocks in W est China,and seven blocks in Northeast China,the other twelve blocks are from North and Central China.All the blocks are lo...The bidding blocks are distributed in different regions of China,There are seven blocks in W est China,and seven blocks in Northeast China,the other twelve blocks are from North and Central China.All the blocks are located in prospective sedimentary basins with different geological condi-tions,some are from oil produced basin such as Bohai Bay Basin which is a prolific basin,it's production accounts for 50%in total prodcuction of China.Based on estimation,the total potential resource of oil is 3.55 billion tons and gas is 800 billion cubic meters in bidding areas.As far as the exploratory objectives are concerned,there are Paleozoic.Mesozoic and Cenozoic strata,as well as continental clastic and marine一carbonate re-servoir.These provide more choices for foreign companies.In addition,most of bidding blocks are adjacent to transport lines,so communication and petroleum transportation are very convenient.展开更多
Under a broad comprehension of Software Engineering, it is preferred the term software life cycle instead of just software production. The reason is that cycle starts at software conception and stops when the software...Under a broad comprehension of Software Engineering, it is preferred the term software life cycle instead of just software production. The reason is that cycle starts at software conception and stops when the software is relegated. Given contemporary companies’ market strategies of focusing on their competitive advantages, most of them have externalized their software production to outsourced services. Therefore, the call for software tenders has become a common step in the software life cycle. In this paper, we present a tool which aids non-experts to specify call for software tenders. The motivation was Chile situation of most of rural and semi-urban city halls which do not have engineering teams to build call for software tenders. We describe the problem in terms of lack of competitiveness and empty biddings generated by low quality calls for tenders. As a second step, we show the technical considerations to develop the proposed tool and its features. We include an initial tool perception from a first group of users.展开更多
The 21st century is an era of rapid development of informatization.Under the background of the development of this era,people are increasingly researching the application of information technology.The application of b...The 21st century is an era of rapid development of informatization.Under the background of the development of this era,people are increasingly researching the application of information technology.The application of big data technology is the development and application trend of an information technology formed after the rapid development of modem information technology.Big data technology has been applied to the development of many industries,including the material bidding and procurement management as well.With the aid of scientific analysis of big data,it is possible to help material procurement management to analyze the corresponding bidding procurement information,which is an important guarantee for improving its bidding procurement management capabilities.In view of this,this article has conducted special research on the application of big data in material bidding and procurement management,hoping to provide references for the application of big data technology in material bidding and procurement management with the help of the research in this article.展开更多
The Trial Methods of Export Quotas on Bidding was promulgated by the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation in February 1994. It is an important step in deepening reform of the foreign trade system. The Mi...The Trial Methods of Export Quotas on Bidding was promulgated by the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation in February 1994. It is an important step in deepening reform of the foreign trade system. The Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation is responsible for supervision and instruction over the commodities展开更多
In order to strengthen cost control in construction project bidding stage, this paper takes the price control in bidding stage as the main line, dedicated to determine the key point in the stage of cost control, and e...In order to strengthen cost control in construction project bidding stage, this paper takes the price control in bidding stage as the main line, dedicated to determine the key point in the stage of cost control, and establishes the more objective and reasonable evaluation in view of the comprehensive evaluation method, and combined with the practical application of engineering to demonstrate. This paper not only improved the tendering and bidding stage method of cost control in construction project in our country, and improves the method system of engineering cost control.展开更多
In recent years,China has accelerated the reform of its oil and gas management system,especially in competitive transfer of mining rights.Evaluating the expected value(EV)of lease blocks is crucial for the bidding dec...In recent years,China has accelerated the reform of its oil and gas management system,especially in competitive transfer of mining rights.Evaluating the expected value(EV)of lease blocks is crucial for the bidding decision of oil companies.When bidding for a block with several individual prospects,the simple addition of each prospect EV usually leads to overly high and optimistic resource volume and value estimates.For the assessment of the EV of a multi-prospect block,two factors should be considered.Firstly,the geological setting of the prospects,including their relative spatial relationship,their chance of geological success,their resources and their geological dependency,etc.The second factor is the exploration strategy of oil companies,concerned with the dry hole tolerance,the committed wells and the drilling priorities for the prospects,etc.A probabilistic method to assess the EV of a multi-prospect block is proposed,which proves to be favorable for formulating a bidding strategy for oil companies.In addition,a case study on two specific blocks with several prospects is presented to illustrate the effect of the above mentioned factors on the EV.展开更多
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Plan of China (Major Project of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, Grant No. 2006BAB04A13)the Philosophy and Social Science Fund of Education Department of Jiangsu Province (Grant No. 07SJD630006)+1 种基金the Third Key Discipline (Techno-Economics and Management) of the Project 211the Key Disciplines of Jiangsu Province (Engineering and Project Management)
文摘According to the multi-project and program management theory, this paper analyzes the program generation principle and establishes a program based on progress goals. On the basis of the present situation of calculation of penalty for delay of the bidding section construction period with the critical path method, we studied the effects of contractor-induced delay of the bidding section construction period in detail, including the effects on the construction period of the bidding section itself, the earliest start times of the next bidding section and other subsequent bidding sections, and the construction period of the program, and then constructed a penalty model for delay of the bidding section construction period from the perspective of programs. Using the penalty model, we conducted a practical analysis of penalty for delay of the construction period of the Baoying station program in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The model can help determine the amount of penalty for delay of the construction period in bidding sections scientifically and reasonably,
文摘The possibility and rationality of introducing an bid-winning estimate based on a reasonable low price into construction bidding mode with bill of quantities were analyzed by setting up a model for bidding and tendering, and the functions of the estimate of reasonable low price in the bidding were revealed. On this basis, a new bidding mode of the project with bill of quantities was pro- posed. The application of the new mode will be advantageous to the promotion of the bill of quantities in China.
文摘This paper puts forward a new framework of multi-agent based equipment bidding system on the Web (MAEBSW). The purpose of the paper is to make the process of enterprise equipment bidding, especially the decision process of enterprise equipment bidding, more intelligent. The system discussed in this paper is an efficient method for the enterprises doing business electronically. We also present our opinion of the approaches to defining agents. We emphasize the importance of agent being able to provide explanation about its behavior for the user or other agents. Based on this opinion we design a new common architecture of most agents in MAEBSW.
文摘This work suggested a novel model for obtaining optimum bidding/offering strategy to improve the benefits in case of big users.Aiming this regard,several electrical energy resources including:micro turbines,green power sources(wind turbine and photovoltaic system),power storage unit such as Hydrogen storage system with fuel cell,as well as mutual treaties are taken into account in offered model.Considering various models for uncertain parameters based on their natures such as power demand,electricity market tariffs,solar irradiation,temperature and wind speed is one of the contributions of the proposed model.Uncertainty of power demand is modeled by robust optimal method whereas remain uncertain parameters are incorporated in model by stochastic method.Considering of wind speed cased is made by Weibull distribution.While,normal distribution is utilized for production of cases for electricity market tariffs,solar irradiation and temperature.In order to reduce the bidding error loss,the storage devices are corporate with green energy in power unbalanced conditions.Combined-integer linear programming method is applied for handling of pricing method profiles that have strength against considered uncertainties on power demand of big user.The obtained results confirm,the entire electrical energy supplement expenditure of big user in absence of demand uncertainty is$39.63 whereas it is augmented up to$49.47 to achieve robustness vs.demand uncertainty.Also,using of hydrogen storage system by considering the reliability index is reduced the bidding price of the system.
文摘The bidding strategies of power suppliers to maximize their interests is of great importance.The proposed bilevel optimization model with coalitions of power suppliers takes restraint factors into consideration,such as operating cost reduction,potential cooperation,other competitors’bidding behavior,and network constraints.The upper model describes the coalition relationship between suppliers,and the lower model represents the independent system operator’s optimization without network loss(WNL)or considering network loss(CNL).Then,a novel algorithm,the evolutionary game theory algorithm(EGA)based on a hybrid particle swarm optimization and improved firefly algorithm(HPSOIFA),is proposed to solve the bi-level optimization model.The bidding behavior of the power suppliers in equilibrium with a dynamic power market is encoded as one species,with the EGA automatically predicting a plausible adaptation process for the others.Individual behavior changes are employed by the HPSOIFA to enhance the ability of global exploration and local exploitation.A novel improved firefly algorithm(IFA)is combined with a chaotic sequence theory to escape from the local optimum.In addition,the Shapley value is applied to the profit distribution of power suppliers’cooperation.The simulation,adopting the standard IEEE-30 bus system,demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method for solving the bi-level optimization problem.
文摘The clearing price and bidding price in electricity market are two key indicators to measure whether it is reasonable or not. Based on the grey incidence analysis, this paper studies the correlation coefficient between the clearing price and bidding price with the generation cost, the supervision and rules of the market, the supply and demand situation, the behavior of market members over the same period, which is based on the actual data of the trans-provincial centralized trading market of East China Power Grid. The results show that the factors affecting the clearing price and bidding price from largest to smallest are generation cost, supervision and rules of the market, the supply and demand situation, the behavior of market members. The conclusion is that the trans-provincial trading platform of East China Power Grid is a reasonable regional market which can discover the market cost, and regulate the market supply and demand balance, and promote healthy competition.
基金This paper is sponsored by Doctor Station Foundation of Ministry of Education of China (20010487015).
文摘Bidding has long been used as a method for allocating and procuring goods and services. An acurrate and comprehensive evaluation of bidders is the key to make the bidding a successful one for tenderee. However, evaluation of bidders is a tough work and the result of evaluation is always affected by the evaluator's understanding of the standards set for evaluation, and the evaluator's expertise, experience and preferrence. We make an effort to find a method for selecting bidders as accurately as possible. A grey decision model is presented, and an example is illustrated to make the practioners know how to use the model.
文摘Due to historic reasons China encounters some special difficulties in ESI (electricity system industry) restructuring. An easy and simple electricity value equivalent (es EVE) method for day ahead pool purchase pricing of China is therefore presented in this paper. The es EVE method is different from two part and one part tariffs. It is more like the UK's method in form, but revised for China with some new concepts and procedure. The main contributions of it include: (1) Find two kinds of eigenvalue, namely EVEs, in an optimization model, (2) Define new concepts of virtual units and feasible region, (3) Twice merit orderings are employed successively to find marginal price. They are simple maximum and minimum comparison procedures and so on. The special economic significance of the method for China is discussed, and some suggestion for ESI restructuring based on es EVE method are provided. A case study is offered at the end of the paper.
文摘This paper elaborated the bidding scheme design of the Central Recreational Area in Linkong Economic Zone from the perspectives of site analysis, determination of properties, design theme and principle, scheme layout and conception, in order to explore the potential enlightenments of the scheme design process, and disclose significance of site analysis and its close relationship with the scheme design.
文摘Public bidding is the international current practice to contract construction project. But the decision on the bidding often is made according to the qualitative evaluation based on the subjective opinion of specialists. Therefore, the fuzzy mathematics principle was applied and a synthetic evaluation model was established to provide an effective method for the development of quantitative bidding decision in this paper.
文摘In optimal wind bidding strategy related literatures, it is usually assumed that the full distribution information (for example, the cumulative distribution function or the probability density function) of wind power output is known. In real world applications, however, only very limited distribution information can be obtained. Therefore, the “optimal bidding strategy” obtained based on the hypothetical distribution may be far away from the true optimal one. In this paper, an optimal bidding strategy is obtained based on the minimax regret criterion. The salient feature of the new approach is that it requires only partial information of wind power distribution, for example, the expectation and the support set. Numerical test is then performed and the results suggest that the method established in this paper is effective.
文摘The primary objective of this research article is to introduce Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm for solving bidding strategy in deregulated power market. Suppliers (GENCOs) and consumers (DISCOs) participate in the bidding process in order to maximize the profit of suppliers and benefits of the consumers. Each supplier bids strategically by choosing the bidding coefficients to counter the competitors bidding strategy. Electricity or electric power is traded through bidding in the power exchange. GENCOs sell energy to power exchange and in turn ancillary services to Independent System Operator (ISO). In this paper, Differential Evolution algorithm is proposed for solving bidding strategy problem in operation of power system under deregulated environment. An IEEE 30 bus system with six generators and two large consumers is employed to demonstrate the proposed technique. The results show the adaptability of the proposed method compared with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Monte Carlo simulation in terms of Market Clearing Price (MCP).
文摘The bidding blocks are distributed in different regions of China,There are seven blocks in W est China,and seven blocks in Northeast China,the other twelve blocks are from North and Central China.All the blocks are located in prospective sedimentary basins with different geological condi-tions,some are from oil produced basin such as Bohai Bay Basin which is a prolific basin,it's production accounts for 50%in total prodcuction of China.Based on estimation,the total potential resource of oil is 3.55 billion tons and gas is 800 billion cubic meters in bidding areas.As far as the exploratory objectives are concerned,there are Paleozoic.Mesozoic and Cenozoic strata,as well as continental clastic and marine一carbonate re-servoir.These provide more choices for foreign companies.In addition,most of bidding blocks are adjacent to transport lines,so communication and petroleum transportation are very convenient.
文摘Under a broad comprehension of Software Engineering, it is preferred the term software life cycle instead of just software production. The reason is that cycle starts at software conception and stops when the software is relegated. Given contemporary companies’ market strategies of focusing on their competitive advantages, most of them have externalized their software production to outsourced services. Therefore, the call for software tenders has become a common step in the software life cycle. In this paper, we present a tool which aids non-experts to specify call for software tenders. The motivation was Chile situation of most of rural and semi-urban city halls which do not have engineering teams to build call for software tenders. We describe the problem in terms of lack of competitiveness and empty biddings generated by low quality calls for tenders. As a second step, we show the technical considerations to develop the proposed tool and its features. We include an initial tool perception from a first group of users.
文摘The 21st century is an era of rapid development of informatization.Under the background of the development of this era,people are increasingly researching the application of information technology.The application of big data technology is the development and application trend of an information technology formed after the rapid development of modem information technology.Big data technology has been applied to the development of many industries,including the material bidding and procurement management as well.With the aid of scientific analysis of big data,it is possible to help material procurement management to analyze the corresponding bidding procurement information,which is an important guarantee for improving its bidding procurement management capabilities.In view of this,this article has conducted special research on the application of big data in material bidding and procurement management,hoping to provide references for the application of big data technology in material bidding and procurement management with the help of the research in this article.
文摘The Trial Methods of Export Quotas on Bidding was promulgated by the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation in February 1994. It is an important step in deepening reform of the foreign trade system. The Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation is responsible for supervision and instruction over the commodities
文摘In order to strengthen cost control in construction project bidding stage, this paper takes the price control in bidding stage as the main line, dedicated to determine the key point in the stage of cost control, and establishes the more objective and reasonable evaluation in view of the comprehensive evaluation method, and combined with the practical application of engineering to demonstrate. This paper not only improved the tendering and bidding stage method of cost control in construction project in our country, and improves the method system of engineering cost control.
基金Sinopec Science and Technology Research Project"Evaluation and Decision Support Technology for Oil and Gas Strategic Area Selection"(P21086-1).
文摘In recent years,China has accelerated the reform of its oil and gas management system,especially in competitive transfer of mining rights.Evaluating the expected value(EV)of lease blocks is crucial for the bidding decision of oil companies.When bidding for a block with several individual prospects,the simple addition of each prospect EV usually leads to overly high and optimistic resource volume and value estimates.For the assessment of the EV of a multi-prospect block,two factors should be considered.Firstly,the geological setting of the prospects,including their relative spatial relationship,their chance of geological success,their resources and their geological dependency,etc.The second factor is the exploration strategy of oil companies,concerned with the dry hole tolerance,the committed wells and the drilling priorities for the prospects,etc.A probabilistic method to assess the EV of a multi-prospect block is proposed,which proves to be favorable for formulating a bidding strategy for oil companies.In addition,a case study on two specific blocks with several prospects is presented to illustrate the effect of the above mentioned factors on the EV.