Harm of Hail to Crops and Countermeasures of Artificial Hail Suppression in Ulanqab City

Hail is one of meteorological disasters affecting crop growth in Ulanqab City.It happens frequently from May to September,and this period is also the main growing season of crops.In this period,hail will cause damage to crops,make farmland soil harden,and bring varying degrees of harm to agricultural production.Artificial hail suppression is an important scientific and technological means for disaster prevention and mitigation.It is necessary to strengthen the monitoring,analysis and forecast of severe convection weather,intensify the release of early warning information of hail weather,provide accurate and reliable real-time information for the implementation of artificial hail suppression operations,strengthen the implementation of artificial weather modification,effectively carry out artificial hail suppression operations,and avoid and reduce the impact of hail disaster.

Analysis of a Large-scale Hail Process in Ulanqab City

Based on the weather monitoring data,NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Doppler weather radar data,the circulation background,atmospheric stability and changing characteristics of radar echoes of a large-scale hail weather process in Ulanqab City on July 5,2021 were analyzed.The results show that this hail weather process occurred in the summer afternoon of the hail-prone period in Ulanqab City,and was formed under the influence of upper trough and the circulation background of"two troughs and one ridge",which was conducive to the occurrence of strong convection weather.The low-level shear line provided the dynamic and water vapor conditions for the occurrence of the hail.In strong convection weather,water vapor was transported mainly from the Bay of Bengal,India and Nepal over the Himalayas.Before the occurrence of strong convection weather,water vapor transport increased significantly,and the low-level water vapor concentrated below 400 hPa,with obvious convergence and vertical transport.The characteristic parameters of radar echoes,such as combined reflectivity,vertically integrated liquid,and echo top height,increased significantly before and during the occurrence of hail,which had good indicative significance for the prediction and early warning of hail.

Will Online Car-Hailing Affect Consumers’ Decisions about Automobile Purchase?—An Empirical Study Based on Questionnaire Investigation

The online car-hailing industry, which provides the right of use, has a certain impact on the traditional automobile market, but there is no unified theory on whether it has a positive impact or a negative impact. Based on 362 consumer questionnaire data, this study builds a structural equation model to discuss the driving factors of residents’ choice of online car-hailing and whether the development of online car-hailing will have a certain substitution impact on the sales of private cars. From the perspective of consumers’ purchase intention, the research results show that consumers’ price consciousness, convenience consciousness, environmental protection consciousness and possession tendency will affect their choice of travel mode, and the use of online car-hailing is positively correlated with consumers’ willingness to replace private car ownership with online car-hailing.

Classification of Hailstone Trajectories in a Hail Cloud over a Semi-Arid Region in China

The growth trajectory of hailstones in clouds determines the ground intensity and spatial distribution of hailfall.A systematic study of hail trajectories can help improve the current scientific understanding of the mechanisms by which hail forms in semi-arid regions of China and,in doing so,improve the quality of hail forecasts and warnings and help to prevent and mitigate disasters.In this study,the WRFv3.7.1 model was employed to provide the background field to drive the hailstone trajectory model.Cluster analysis was then used to classify hail trajectories to investigate the characteristics of different types of hail trajectories and the microphysical characteristics of hail formation.The differences in hail trajectories might be mainly due to differences in the background flow fields and microphysical fields of hail clouds in different regions.Comparative analysis revealed that as the maximum particle size of ground hailfall increased,the maximum supercooled cloud water content and the maximum updraft velocity for the formation and growth of hailstone increased.The larger the size when the hailstone reaches its maximum height,the larger the ground hailstone formed.Overall,the formation and growth of hailstone are caused by the joint action of the dynamical flow field and cloud microphysical processes.The physical processes of hailstone growth and main growth regions differ for different types of hail trajectories.Therefore,different catalytic schemes should be adopted in artificial hail prevention operations for different hail clouds and trajectories due to differences in hail formation processes and ground hailfall characteristics.

Damage in hybrid corrugated core sandwich structures under high velocity hail ice impact:A numerical study

Potential damage in composite structures caused by hail ice impact is an essential safety threat to the aircraft in flight.In this study,a nonlinear finite element(FE)model is developed to investigate the dynamic response and damage behavior of hybrid corrugated sandwich structures subjected to high velocity hail ice impact.The impact and breaking behavior of hail are described using the FE-smoothed particle hydrodynamics(FE-SPH)method.A rate-dependent progressive damage model is employed to capture the intra-laminar damage response;cohesive element and surface-based cohesive contact are implemented to predict the inter-laminar delamination and sheet/core debonding phenomena respectively.The transient processes of sandwich structure under different hail ice impact conditions are analyzed.Comparative analysis is conducted to address the influences of core shape and impact position on the impact performance of sandwich structures and the corresponding energy absorption characteristics are also revealed.

Analysis of a Rare Large-scale Hail Process in Yantai and Weihai

A rare large-scale hail process in Yantai and Weihai City in the autumn of 2021 was analyzed based on the surface meteorology,high-altitude observation and S-band radar detection data.The results showed that this process was influenced by shallow trough,and strong upper-level jet stream in the middle and upper levels guided the intrusion of mid-level cold air into the warm and humid environment at the lower level.The shear lines and trunk lines in the lower level also provided certain triggering conditions for uplift,brewing conditions suitable for the occurrence and development of strong convection.The vertical wind shear was unusually large,and vertical wind shear was up to 10 m/s at 0-1 km,20 m/s at 0-3 km,and 32 m/s at 0-6 km,which was conducive to the growth of the storm.In this process,isolated multi-cell thunderstorm was generated at the beginning,and then it developed and strengthened continuously,moving to the southeast.In the later stage,a convection cell was born at the boundary between Yantai and Weihai,and developed into supercell storm.The storm lasted for a long time,and continued to develop and strengthen as it moved eastward,affecting most areas of Weihai from northwest to southeast.In the development stage of the storm,the radar reflectivity factor had obvious characteristics of hook echo and three-body scatter spike,and there was echo overhang and other hail echo features in the middle layer.Weak mesocyclone appeared at a low elevation,and there was the potential for the occurrence of tornado.

Analysis of Characteristics of Hail Disaster and a Typical Hail Suppression Process in Qujing City

Based on the data of hail disaster in Qujing City and the detection data of the new generation of Doppler weather radar, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of hail disaster and hail suppression operations in Qujing City were analyzed statistically, and the hail suppression operations of a typical cell case was analyzed. The results showed that the number of hail days and hail frequency showed an increasing trend in Qujing City from 2017 to 2022, and the number of artificial hail suppression operations increased accordingly. Hail disaster occurred most frequently in Xuanwei City. Through the analysis of hail suppression operations of a typical cell case, it is found that the operations were timely, and the location was reasonable. The ammunition used was sufficient, and the overall effect of the hail suppression operations was good.

网约车平台算法个性化定价、乘客履约率及其监管对策

网约车平台算法个性化定价产生了复杂的市场影响,相比传统出租车服务,网约车乘客违约率达30%左右,因此算法个性化定价对乘客违约率的影响机制以及乘客是否履约的关键特征值得探索。文中尝试运用矩形Hotelling模型建立算法个性化定价与乘客违约率的因果关联机制,以两个网约车平台之间的Stackelberg博弈模型揭示歧视性定价、乘客违约率与平台之间竞争强度的关系。进一步运用网约车平台订单大数据,以Bhattacharyya距离、提升决策树及改进拉斯维加斯方法(包裹法)等归纳学习工具对网约车平台百万量级订单进行数据挖掘,找出决定乘客是否履约的关键特征。分析结果表明,平台进行个性化定价时乘客的最终消费选择主要取决于价格因素;而改进车辆匹配、派单策略及减少乘客候车时间可显著提高订单履约率。研究结果对网约车平台完善定价及运营策略以维持双边市场用户数量、保证平台持续成功运营具有重要参考价值,也为反垄断部门干预平台个性化定价提供了理论依据。

一次冰雹云发展的雷达回波特征分析及其防雹作业效果物理检验

利用云南昭通CC雷达和威宁探空等资料,对贵州省威宁县2017年7月23日的一次冰雹云发展过程的雷达基本反射率因子和径向速度的变化特征进行分析,同时通过插值得到剖面变化特征,研究雹云垂直结构演变,并根据雷达回波顶高、强回波中心(45 dBZ)高度、组合反射率和垂直累积液态水含量(VIL)这4个雷达探测特征物理量,进行时间序列分析,得到防雹作业效果。结果表明:(1)降雹前对流单体的合并使回波强度和VIL分别跃增至60 dBZ和50 kg·m^(-2)以上,冰雹云的雷达回波出现旁瓣回波和“V”形缺口。(2)中低层气流的径向辐合及高层强辐散带来的强烈抽吸作用所产生的上升气流,使雹云能够稳定维持和发展。(3)防雹作业后,雹云开始由上至下分裂直至完全分裂成两个孤立弱单体,回波顶高明显降低,组合反射率较峰值下降近30 dBZ。(4)在作业单元和对比单元的生命史时间内,作业单元的4个雷达探测特征物理量下降速率均大于对比单元的,表明防雹作业有效抑制了雹云的发展。通过对比分析发现,防雹作业24 min后,4个雷达探测特征物理量的双比值均小于1,进一步证明防雹作业取得了明显的正效果,加速了对流单体的消亡。

一次强冰雹超级单体风暴双偏振参量特征分析

利用济南S波段双偏振多普勒天气雷达资料、章丘探空和地面常规气象观测资料及灾情调查,对2021年7月9日发生在济南章丘的一次特大冰雹超级单体风暴双偏振和微物理结构特征进行了分析。结果表明:冷涡天气背景下,强的垂直风切变和强的对流有效位能,利于超级单体的形成与维持。阵风锋是风暴触发机制,也是风暴长时间维持机制。初始风暴由阵风锋触发,经过合并发展产生超级单体。成熟阶段,风暴西侧与阵风锋交汇区域不断激发新生单体,并与主体合并,风暴长时间维持。风暴顶强辐散是中气旋长时间维持和风暴顶高度较高的关键因子之一。特大冰雹阶段风暴底层右后有明显的入流缺口,其前侧有差分反射率(Z_(DR))弧,表现为少量大的液态粒子或小的湿冰粒子,入流缺口左侧强反射率因子区对应小的Z_(DR)和小的相关系数,为冰雹降落区。垂直结构上,强上升气流区一侧存在深厚的有界弱回波区,0℃层高度之下分布有Z_(DR)环,有界弱回波区内及上方存在Z_(DR)柱,且高度较高,含有少许偏大的液态或融化的小的冰相粒子。较高的Z_(DR)柱表明风暴内上升气流强盛且高度较高,利于风暴的发展与维持以及冰雹粒子的湿增长。

基于相对价格法的网约车市场统一开放、竞争有序指数构建与应用

在加快建设全国统一大市场背景下,为有效监测网约车市场动态,提出网约车市场统一开放、竞争有序指数的构建方法。首先,从市场统一性、开放性和竞争有序性维度提出网约车市场评价指标,并采用相对价格法计算市场统一性指数。其次,运用熵权法对各评价指标进行客观赋权,进而合成指数。然后,以广东省8个城市为例分析发现,2021年下半年至2023年下半年期间,广州市网约车市场统一开放、竞争有序指数最高,从0.5增至约0.75;深圳市、佛山市和东莞市的指数值在0.3~0.5波动,总体呈上升态势,反映出这些城市网约车市场发展的积极趋势。无论是否对样本城市分组,上述结论均保持一致,反映了网约车市场发展水平存在的差异。最后,在强化运价治理、完善运力动态调整机制、促进有序规范发展、发挥领先城市的示范作用、建立健全常态化信息发布机制方面提出建议,以全面促进网约车市场健康发展。

隐私保护的网约出行的研究综述

为高效利用交通资源,在线网约出行(ORH)服务整合车辆供给和乘客请求信息,派遣符合条件的车辆提供非巡游的出行服务。人们在享受ORH服务带来的便利时,也面临着严重的隐私泄露风险。为此,许多研究利用密码学技术设计隐私保护的ORH服务。首先,本文介绍了隐私保护的ORH服务主要面临的城市动态场景下高效计算密态行程开销、实时动态规划密态行程、安全共享不同ORH服务的运力资源等挑战。然后,回顾了欧式距离、路网距离和行驶时间三类行程开销的安全计算方法,其中,欧式距离计算效率高,但误差大,现有路网距离和行驶时长的安全计算方法多数面向静态路网场景,针对城市动态路网场景的安全计算方法有待进一步研究。分析了面向司机、乘客、ORH平台的行程规划问题的求解方法,现有研究往往仅针对司机、乘客或ORH平台的单一目标进行行程规划,事实上行程规划不但要考虑ORH平台自身收益,更要同时兼顾乘客和司机的用户体验。综述了隐私感知的行程预处理方法,单车单客模式、单车多客模式的行程安全共享方法,并总结了其不足与启示。多车单客、多车多客动态模式的行程安全共享有待进一步研究。最后,从城市动态路网下高效的密态行程开销的安全计算与比较、多方隐私保护的大规模密态行程动态规划与安全保障、跨服务域的去中心化密态行程协作共享、ORH服务的法律法规合规保证四方面展望了隐私保护的ORH服务的未来研究方向。本文旨在保护多方隐私的前提下,提高ORH服务质量、促进多ORH服务合作,使得网约出行更加智慧、更加安全。

川西高原冰雹时空分布特征及大冰雹环境条件分析

选取2001—2016年川西高原31个县市气象站逐月冰雹日、3个探空站资料及ERA5逐小时再分析资料,分析川西高原冰雹时空分布特征及冰雹发生的天气背景和环境条件。结果表明:(1)近16 a川西高原冰雹日数总体呈减少趋势,高海拔降雹次数多于较低海拔地区。降雹频率分布曲线呈双峰偏态型,阿坝州的峰值出现在5月和9月,甘孜州出现在6月和9月。降雹主要发生时段为11—21时,占比95.5%,峰值出现在15时和17时。冰雹直径<5 mm冰雹占年降雹的72%以上。(2)连续冰雹天气的发生多伴随有高原低值系统的东移,黄淮低涡西侧的切变是影响夏季阿坝地区的重要天气系统之一。不同季节阿坝北部的大冰雹天气均是在高原低值系统的影响下发生,春、夏季大冰雹个例受明显的冷空气或冷平流的影响。(3)大冰雹个例中,-20℃层高度为7.2~8.6 km,0℃层高度距离地面4 km左右,对流有效位能CAPE≥980 J·kg^(-1)。无论春夏还是秋季,红原大冰雹个例的中低层温差(T600~400 hPa)≥21℃且600~400 hPa垂直风切变达到15~21 m·s^(-1),有利于形成高度组织化的对流风暴。

共享经济下的网约车动态风险管理优化

针对网约车中的两类感知风险:安全风险和服务风险,考虑网约车突发事件以及消费者的参考服务质量效应,构建“政府+平台”风险管理动态博弈模型,利用微分博弈理论,求解了政企合作、非合作以及政府成本分担契约下的双方最优风险投资策略及绩效。研究发现:政企协同风险管理可以最大程度降低网约车风险和提高系统绩效;政府成本分担契约可以实现系统效益的帕累托改进并有效降低网约车安全风险;前瞻性政府和企业会依据危机前后的环境做出最优的策略调整,强调危机前风险防范的重要性,并力图在风险率和折损率较低时加大风险投资力度;参考服务效应不利于降低网约车安全风险,但在一定程度上可以提高其服务质量以缓解危机给系统绩效带来的负面影响。

天气雷达三体散射长钉回波特征分析

利用2016—2020年中国中东部地区47个强对流个例中50部S波段多普勒天气雷达的基本反射率因子产品资料,在筛选出2626个样本的基础上,分析三体散射长钉(TBSS)特征。结果表明:TBSS在1.5 km和5 km高度附近出现频次最高;在2.4°仰角出现频次最高。TBSS主要出现在雷达静锥区边缘至雷达径向距离210 km范围,在距离雷达115 km附近达到峰值;TBSS在雷达极坐标系中呈现南多北少、西多东少的形势;当对流风暴移动方向与雷达径向方向的夹角大于30°时有利于观测到TBSS。TBSS回波强度在起始端径向向外0~15 km范围内迅速降低至5 dBz,15 km之后在-5~10 dBz波动,TBSS区域中70%以上为低于25 dBz的弱回波;99%的TBSS长度小于40 km,不同长度的TBSS形态符合正态分布。TBSS出现频次和长度与强回波的中心最高值和区域面积没有显著相关关系。

贵州威宁对流单体雷达回波分层结构特征分析

本文选取了2017—2020年威宁县111个对流单体(35个冰雹云单体和76个雷雨云单体),着重分析了对流单体雷达回波在垂直指向上的分层结构特征,并结合双偏振雷达观测分析了对流云单体偏振参量和水凝物相态分布特征。研究分析结果表明:①威宁对流单体雷达回波典型特征量基本一致,对流单体生命史周期约为100 min,最大反射率因子主要位于与0℃层高度差±2.0 km的范围内;②当对流单体雷达回波强度从45 dBz发展到55 dBz以上时,冰雹云具有发展迅速且持续时间长的特点,冰雹大小则与强回波在融化层高度以上的扩展高度存在一定的对应关系,高度越高、冰雹越大;③X波段双偏振天气雷达能够较好地反映降水粒子类型,基本符合粒子形状、大小和相态分布的特点,但应考虑降水相态粒子处于临界过渡区域的转化特点;④威宁多小冰雹主要与垂直风切变较弱、对流有效位能CAPE值不稳定能量偏低,且中小冰雹在下落过程中逐渐融化变小有关。

聚合平台模式下网约车服务策略研究

近年来,越来越多的网约车平台入驻在到第三方平台下,形成了聚合平台模式,在聚合平台模式下,如何进行战略转型是当前网约车平台面临的重大问题.以提供多种服务的综合性网约车平台(即同时提供普通车服务和专车服务)为研究对象,探讨了该平台的最优服务策略的选择与定价问题,并讨论了不同策略对市场中原有的普通网约车平台(即仅提供普通服务)以及聚合平台的定价和收益影响.研究发现若综合性网约车平台的品牌优势较显著(即消费者对普通网约车平台认可度较小时),则仅当其服务成本较低时,该平台会提供专车服务;当品牌优势减弱时,综合性网约车平台则不会提供普通车服务其次,当消费者对普通网约车平台的认可度较低时,专车服务策略对普通网约车平台是不利的;随着消费者的认可度增加,普通服务策略对普通网约车平台是不利的.对于聚合平台而言,普通服务策略对其一定是有利的.这表明仅当综合性网约车平台提供普通车服务时,才有可能实现综合平台、普通平台、聚合平台三方平台共赢这一结论为传统网约车平台与聚合平台之间的合作发展提供了扎实的理论依据.

基岩岛乡村景观特征研究——以阳江海陵岛为例

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针对现实中网约车司机追求自身利益最大化而产生的频繁“拒单”现象,为优化乘客满意度、网约车平台调度效率和司机个人收益,提出派单模式下网约车司机实时订单决策问题,并采用在线策略设计与竞争分析展开研究。本文讨论了订单行驶距离小于返空距离的情形,即订单不收取车辆返空费。研究了一般网络上网约车实时在线调度的竞争比下界,并设计了最优调度策略——阈值策略(PT策略),分析了策略的竞争性能。最后,通过算例分析证明,PT策略能有效帮助网约车司机提高工作期间实时订单的总收益,从而降低司机“拒单”行为,在实际生活中具有很强的实用性,对网约车司机、网约车平台和政府具有一定管理启示。

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