Prediction of death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers

Background:To estimate cardiovascular and cancer death rates by regions and time periods.Design:Novel statistical methods were used to analyze clinical surveillance data.Methods:A multicenter,population-based medical survey was performed.Annual recorded deaths from cardiovascular diseases were analyzed for all 195 countries of the world.It is challenging to model such data;few mathematical models can be applied because cardiovascular disease and cancer data are generally not normally distributed.Results:A novel approach to assessing the biosystem reliability is introduced and has been found to be particularly suitable for analyzing multiregion environmental and healthcare systems.While traditional methods for analyzing temporal observations of multiregion processes do not deal with dimensionality efficiently,our methodology has been shown to be able to cope with this challenge.Conclusions:Our novel methodology can be applied to public health and clinical survey data.

Spatiotemporal patterns induced by cross-diffusion in predator prey model with prey herd shape effect

In this paper,we investigate a predator-prey model with herd behavior and cross-diffusion subject to the zero flux boundary conditions.First,the temporal behavior of the model has been investigated,where Hopf bifurcation has been obtained.Then,by analyzing the characteristic equation it has been proved that the cross-diffusion generate a complex dynamics such as Hopf bifurcation,Turing instability,even Turing-Hopf bifurcation.Further,the impact of the prey herd shape on the spatiotemporal patterns has been discussed.Furthermore,by computing and analyzing the normal form associated with the Turing-Hopf bifurcation point,the spatiotemporal dynamics near the Turing-Hopf bifurcation point has been discussed and allso justified by some numerical simulations.

Mathematical models for diseases in wildlife populations with indirect transmission

In this paper,five different models for five different kinds of diseases occurring in wildlife populations are introduced.In all models,a logistic growth term is taken into account and the disease is transmitted to the susceptible population indirectly through an envi-ronment reservoir.The time evolution of these diseases is described together with its spatial propagation.The character of spatial homogeneous equilibria against the uniform and non-uniform perturbations together with the occurrence of Hopf bifurcations are discussed through a linear stability analysis.No Turing instability is observed.The partial differential field equations are also integrated numerically to validate the stability results herein obtained and to extract additional information on the temporal and spatial behavior of the different diseases.

Global threshold dynamics of an age structured alcoholism model

We consider in this research an age-structured alcoholism model.The global behavior of the model is investigated.It is proved that the system has a threshold dynamics in terms of the basic reproduction number(BRN),where we obtained that alcohol-free equilibrium(AFE)is globally asymptotically stable(GAS)in the case R_(0)≤1,but for R_(0)>1 we found that the system persists and the nontrivial equilibrium(EE)is GAS.Furthermore,the effects of the susceptible drinkers rate and the repulse rate of the recovers to alcoholics are investigated,which allow us to provide a proper strategy for reducing the spread of alcohol use in the studied populations.The obtained mathematical results are tested numerically next to its biological relevance.