Weather Events Associated with Strong Earthquakes and Seismic Swarms in Italy

This study discusses the possible relationship between potentially destructive seismic events,earthquake swarms,and intense weather events occurring in the same epicentral zone at time intervals ranging from one day to a few weeks.The objective of the present study is,therefore,to analyze the interaction between the lithosphere,atmosphere,and ionosphere in order to propose,prospectively,a new hydro-climatic model to be applied not only in Italy,where this research was carried out.The study concerns some of the most intense Italian earthquakes starting from 1920,with the destructive event in Lunigiana,in North Western Apennines,until the recent earthquake swarm that hit the Emilia-Romagna region followed,as in the cases analyzed in this research,by strong atmospheric disturbances.The recurrence associating seismic events with atmospheric precipitation allows us to propose some hypotheses about the triggering mechanism.In tectonically stressed areas,during pre-seismic and seismic phases,the release of gases from the ground and electrical charges near active faults is known.It is hypothesized that water condensation nuclei are carried by radon gas on atmospheric gases,also originating from cosmic rays in the upper atmosphere,generated by air ionization.

The 2024 M_(j) 7.6 Noto Peninsula, Japan earthquake caused by the fluid flow in the crust

On January 1, 2024 at 16:10:09 JST, an M_(j) 7.6 earthquake struck the Noto Peninsula in the southern part of the Sea of Japan. This location has been experiencing an earthquake swarm for more than three years. Here, we provide an overview of this earthquake, focusing on the slip distribution of the mainshock and its relationship with the preceding swarm. We also reexamined the source areas of other large earthquakes that occurred around the Sea of Japan in the past and compared them with the Matsushiro earthquake swarm in central Japan from1964 to 1968. The difference between the Matsushiro earthquake swarm and the Noto earthquake swarm is the surrounding stress field. The Matsushiro earthquake swarm was a strike-slip stress field, so the cracks in the crust were oriented vertically. This allowed fluids seeped from the depths to rise and flow out to the surface. On the other hand, the Noto area was a reverse fault stress field. Therefore, the cracks in the earth's crust were oriented horizontally. Fluids flowing underground in deep areas could not rise and spread over a wide area in the horizontal plane. This may have caused a large amount of fluid to accumulate underground, triggering a large earthquake. Although our proposed mechanism does not take into account other complex geological conditions into consideration, it may provide a simple way to explain why the Noto swarm is followed by a large earthquake while other swarms are not.

Rushan earthquake swarm in eastern China and its indications of fluid-triggered rupture

An extraordinary earthquake swarm occurred at Rushan on the Jiaodong Peninsula from October 1, 2013, onwards, and more than 12,000 aftershocks had been detected by December 31, 2015. All the activities of the whole swarm were recorded at the nearest station, RSH, which is located about 12 km from the epicenter. We examine the statistical characteristics of the Rushan swarm in this paper using RSH station data to assess the arrival time difference, ts p, of Pg and Sg phases. A temporary network comprising 18 seismometers was set up on May 6, 2014, within the area of the epicenter; based on the data from this network and use of the double difference method, we determine precise hypocenter locations. As the distribution of relocated sources reveals migration of seismic activity, we applied the mean-shift cluster method to perform clustering analysis on relocated catalogs. The results of this study show that there were at least 16 clusters of seismic activities between May 6, 2014, and June 30, 2014, and that each was characterized by a hypocenter spreading process. We estimated the hydraulic diffusivity, D, of each cluster using envelope curve fitting; the results show that D values range between 1.2 and 3.5 m2/d and that approximate values for clusters on the edge of the source area are lower than those within the central area. We utilize an epidemic-type aftershock sequence （ETAS） model to separate external triggered events from self-excited aftershocks within the Rushan swarm. The estimated parameters for this model suggest that α = 1.156, equiva- lent to sequences induced by fluid-injection, and that the forcing rate （μ） implies just 0.15 events per day. These estimates indicate that around 3% of the events within the swarm were externally triggered. The fact that variation in μ is synchronous with swarm activity implies that pulses in fluid pressure likely drove this series of earthquakes.

Moment tensor inversion for the focal mechanism of the Dongfang (Hainan) earthquake swarm

Moment tensor inversion for the focal mechanism of the 12 earthquakes of the Dongfang (Hainan) earthquakeswarm occurred from June to August 1992 with near-source broadband data recorded by a temporal small-aperturenetwork consisting of DCS-302 digital three-component accelerographs. The results inverted indicate that thepredominant components of sources of all these 12 earthqualles were shear dislocations. The principal pressureaxis and the principal tension axis are in NW-SE direction and in NE-SW direction, respectively, and their dips arealmost horizontal. It could infer that these earthquakes occurred within the same ambient stress field.

A priliminary study on the sequence characteristics and focal mechanism solution of the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm

The sequence characteristics and focal mechanism solution of the Jiashi, Xinjiang strong earthquake swarm are analyzed and studied in this paper. The result shows that before the M S=6.6 earthquake, value h of sequence frequency attenuation coefficient was less than 1, then value h was more than 1. Before occurrence of M S6.0 earthquakes the energy is released either in a continuously strengthened way or a sharply strengthened way, and before M S5.0 earthquakes the sequence frequency shows calm. The study on the focal mechanism solution of the strong earthquake swarm shows that the source faults are mainly in a right lateral, strike slip way and the faults have characteristics of tensor shear.

Analysis on the master event method and precise location of 1997 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm in western China

Master event location method was described in detail in this paper. Some problems in the application of master event method have been analyzed and some improvements of the method have been made. As compared the location results of MS>=3.0 earthquakes of Jiashi swarm obtained by using this method with that by the traditional absolute method, the result obtained by using the master event method shows more reasonable and more consistent with that from the focal mechanism solutions. After relocation, we can see, the epicenters of M>=5.0 earthquakes show an echelon-type alignment along NNW-SSE direction, and all earthquakes concentrate nearly in a volume region about 30 km (N-S) × 15 km (E-W) × 15 km (U-D). Earthquake focal depths are mainly in the range of 15-28 km.

Fracture characteristics of the 1997 Jiashi,Xinjiang, China, earthquake swarm inferred from source spectra

Broadband P and S waves source spectra of 12 M_s≥5.0 earthquakes of the 1997 Jiashi, Xinjiang, China. earthquake swarm recorded at 13 GDSN stations have been analyzed. Rupture size and static stress drop of these earthquakes have been estimated through measuring the corner frequency of the source spectra. Direction of rupture propaga- tion of the earthquake faulting has also been inferred from the azimuthal variation of the comer frequency. The main results are as follows: ① The rupture size of M_s≥6.0 strong earthquakes is in the range of 10~20 km, while that of Ms_=5.0~5.5 earthquakes is 6~10 km. ② The static stress drop of the swarm earthquakes is rather low, being of the order of 0.1 MPa. This implies that the deformation release rate in the source region may be low. ③ Stress drop of the earthquakes appears to be proportional to their seismic moment, and also to be dependent on their focal mechanism. The stress drop of normal faulting earthquakes is usually lower than that of strike-slip type earth quakes. ④ For each M_s≥6.0 earthquake there exists an apparent azimuthal variation of the comer frequencies. Azimuthally variation pattern of comer frequencies of different earthquakes shows that the source rupture pattern of the Jiashi earthquake swarm is complex and no uniform rupture expanding direction exists.

The Kangding earthquake swarm of November, 2014

There was an earthquake swarm of two major events of MS6.3 and MS5.8 on the Xianshuihe fault in November, 2014. The two major earthquakes are both strike-slip events with aftershock zone along NW direction.We have analyzed the characteristics of this earthquake sequence. The b value and the h value show the significant variations in different periods before and after the MS5.8earthquake. Based on the data of historical earthquakes, we also illustrated the moderate-strong seismic activity on the Xianshuihe fault. The Kangding earthquake swarm manifests the seismic activity on Xianshuihe fault may be in the late seismic active period. The occurrence of the Kangding earthquake may be an adjustment of the strong earthquakes on the Xianshuihe fault. The Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the historical earthquakes were also given in this article. The results indicate that the earthquake swarm was encouraged by the historical earthquakes since1893, especially by the MS7.5 Kangding earthquake in1955. The Coulomb failure stress changes also shows the subsequent MS5.8 earthquake was triggered by the MS6.3earthquake.

Complex time－space spreading and focal mechanism of the 1989 Batang earthquake swarm （M_s＝6．7）

On the basis of field observations, the complex time-space spreading pattern and focal mechanism of the 1989Batang earthquake swarm are studied in this paper. The fault motions of the epicenter area are analysed bythe leveling survey before and after strong events. From the given simplified focal mechanical model of theswarm,the process of fracture indicates that swarm strong ruptures are associated with the spreading and thevirgation of the barrier of irregularen en echelon source fault system.

The complex temporal sequence structures of non－single exponential attenuation of Batang earthquake swarm with M6．7

A study was made on temporal sequence of the earthquake swarm with M6. 7 which took place in Batang County, Sichuan Province, from April to Sept., 1989. Temporal sequence of the swarm was characterized by obvious sectional release process, in dex rise of creeping curve, certain order behavior among the peak values in the early sequence, transient tranquility before strong aftershocks and abnormal high values in sequential entropy. Subsequence of the swarm were represented by the forms of isolation pattern and mainshock-aftershock pattern,changed from the former pattern to the latter and characterized by fast-slow-fast attenuating pattern. According to time fractional dimension calculation results of the swarm sequence and the subsequences, it was discovered that non-scaling regions existed in the complicated temporal sequence structure, the span of non-scaling region of capacity dimension Do was different from that of the information dimension D1 of the same sequence, and the self-organizational features of the same sequence were different when various magnitude threshold values were selected for calculating. From the stochastic non-uniform spread of swarming high fractures in the seismic regions, it was primarily explained that the exponential attenuation of time sequence variation was likely to occur.Meanwhile, the level structures of various order sequences of the strong seismic swarm and the order problems were discussed.

Tomographic determination of the upper crustal structure in the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm region

A three-dimensional temporary seismic transmission array was arranged in a 50x60 km2 region around Jiashi strong earthquake swarm to receive seismic waves generated by 8 fires from different azimuths. With the inversion method without model blocks and using P and S reflections from Moho at critical distances, the 3-D images of P, S velocity perturbation and ratio vP/vS perturbation of the upper crust under the seismic array were reconstructed. Meanwhile, the seismicity of the Jiashi earthquake swarm was taken into consideration in the analysis of the seismogenesis. The results indicate that the upper crustal structure under the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm region is characterized by significant inhomogeneity both laterally and vertically. From 12 km depth, it is clear that there is an NNW-oriented high P-wave velocity anomalous body corresponding to the epicenter of the swarm with low-velocity anomaly around it, which is the direct cause of the strong earthquakes. High vP/vS is distributed in the same location, which may indicate the decline of shear strength of the source region owing to relative softness of the medium, this can be accounted as an explanation for the seismicity feature of the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm.

Discrimination Between Foreshocks and Earthquake Swarm from the Change of First Motion Sign

Based on the data of first motion of 11 earthquake sequences with ML ≥ 3.0 recorded by the Telemetric Seismic Network of Shanxi since the 1980s, the first motion characteristics of each earthquake sequence were studied. It is known that earthquake sequences of different types have different consistency characteristics of focal mechanism. The decrease and increase of the first motion contradictory sign ratios could be taken as an index to judge whether there would still be a larger earthquake to come after the earthquake sequence.

Relationship between the earthquake sequences of Tangshan and Xingtai and the three dimensional velocity structure──Discussion on predicting strong earthquakes of swarm-type

In this paper, based on the results of tomographic image of Tangshan and Xingtai areas, the relations between thecharacteristics of the two strong earthquake sequences and their three-dimensional velocity structures are studied.The research results indicate that:① Mosaic distribution of low-velocity bodies and high-velocity bodies, especially the existence of high-velocity bodies with large size in crust are the common basis of development of thetwo earthquake sequences. ② Scale, depth, and heterogeneity of high-velocity and low-velocity bodies are theimportant factors to effect the characteristic of earthquake sequences. ③ The depth of the high-velocity body inTangshan area is less than that in Xingtai area, which is the principal reason why the dominant focal depth and thebiggest focal depth of Tangshan earthquake sequence are less than Xingtai's. ④ The depth of the high-velocitybodies in Ninghe area is more than that in Tangshan-Luanxian area, which lead to the biggest magnitude and epicentral intensity are lower. These results could be helpful for predicting the main shock of strong swarm-typeearthquakes and later strong aftershocks.

Research on the Application of Time Structure Variation Analysis to the Jiashi-Bachu Earthquake Swarm Sequence

In 1997 - 2003, 27 earthquakes with M≥ 5.0 occurred in the Jiashi-Bachu area of Xinjiang. It was a rare strong earthquake swarm activity. The earthquake swarm has three time segments of activity with different magnitudes in the years 1997, 1998 and 2003. In different time segments, the seismic activity showed strengthenin-qguiet changes in various degrees before earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0. In order to delimitate effectively the precursory meaning of the clustering （strengthening） quiet change in sequence and to seek the time criterion for impending prediction, the nonlinear characteristics of seismic activity have been used to analyze the time structure characteristics of the earthquake swarm sequence, and further to forecast the development tendency of earthquake sequences in the future. Using the sequence catalogue recorded by the Kashi Station, and taking the earthquakes with Ms≥ 5.0 in the sequence as the starting point and the next earthquake with Ms = 5.0 as the end, statistical analysis has been performed on the time structure relations of the earthquake sequence in different stages. The main results are as follows： （1） Before the major earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm sequence, the time variation coefficient （δ-value） has abnormal demonstrations to different degrees. （2） Within 10 days after δ= 1, occurrence of earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm is very possible. （3） The time variation coefficient has three types of change. （4） The change process before earthquakes with M5.0 is similar to that before earthquakes with M6.0, with little difference in the threshold value. In the earthquake swarm sequence, it is difficult to delimitate accurately the attribute of the current sequences （foreshock or aftershock sequence） and to judge the magnitude of the follow-up earthquake by δ-value. We can only make the judgment that earthquakes with M5.0 are likely to occur in the sequence. （5） The critical clustering characteristics of the sequence are hierarchical. Only corresponding to a certain magnitude can the sequence have the variation state of critical clustering. （6） The coefficient of the time variation has a clear meaning in physics. After the clustering-quiet state of earthquake activity has appeared, it can describe clearly the randomness of the seismogenic system. Furthermore, it can efficiently clarify whether or not the clustering quiescence variation is of some prognostic meaning. In the case that the earthquake frequency attenuation is essentially normal （h 〉 1 ） and there is no remarkable clustering-quiescence state, it is still possible to discover the abnormal change of the sequence from the time variation coefficient. On the contrary, in the later period of swarm activity, after the appearance of many seismic quiescence phenomena, this coefficient did not appear abnormally, even when h 〈 1, suggesting that the δ-value diagnosis is more universal.

Study on Active Faults and Seismogenic Structure for the 1989 Batang M6.2～6.7 Earthquake Swarm in the Litang-Batang Region of West Sichuan,China

Fault structures in the Litang-Batang region of West Sichuan are mainly sub-longitudinal and a set of NNE- and NW-trending conjugate shear fracture zones is developed. In this paper, emphasis is put on explaining the movement patterns along the fault structures in the region since the late Pleistocene-Holocene on the basis of detailed interpretation of TM satellite images and aero-photos in geomorphologic aspect of active structures. The sub-latitudinal shortening rate along the sub-longitudinal Jinshajiang fault zone is determined to be 2～3mm/a since the late Quaternary, the horizontal dextral slip movement rate along the NNE-trending Batang fault is 1.3～2.7mm/a on average, and the horizontal sinistral slip movement rate along the NW-trending Litang fault is 2.6～4.4 mm/a on average. The general status of the recent crustal movement in the region and the regularities of block motion caused by it are analyzed in combination with data of geophysical fields, focal mechanism solutions and GPS measurements. The occurrence of the 1989 Batang M6.2～6.7 earthquake swarm is suggested to be the result of tensional rupture along the sub-latitudinal normal fault derived from the conjugate shearing along the NNE-trending Batang and the NW-trending Litang faults. It reveals a typical seismic case produced by normal faulting in a compressional tectonic environment.

Waveform inversion and analysis of an unusual earthquake swarm in the Boshan mining area, Shandong Province, China

Moment tensor solutions were retrieved for the earthquake swarm that occurred during November and December 2010 in the Boshan mining area, Shandong Province, China. The results showed that the double-couple components in the source mechanisms were higher at the beginning of the swarm and consisted mainly of shear faulting controlled by tectonic stress. The subsequent events had significant non-double-couple components, indicating tensile faulting. The double-couple components predominately presented as normal faulting and the P axes were orientated almost vertically. The slip vectors of the swarm events were relatively stable. With reference to the tectonic features near the epicenter, we concluded that the swarm was a result of subordinate fault motion related to the Wangmu Mountain fault and that high-pressure pore fluids played a crucial role in the activity of the earthquake swarm.

Application of PP cluster method in the earthquake swarm analysis

Taking 98 earthquake swarms occurred in Xinjiang during 1972-1992 as examples,and & parameters (e. g. U,K, p and the maximum energy rate of earthquake sequence etc.)as the characteristic quantity in earthquakeswarrn pattern observation, the author made a numerical cluster by PP cluster analysis method. The results indicate that those 98 earthquake swarms can be divided into 4 types as A, B, C, D. There are 24 swarms in typeA, among which strong shocks occur nearby after 18 swarms in the coming 12 months.Among 61 earthquakeswarms in type C and D, strong shocks occur nearby only after 7 swarms in the same time period. The occurrence rate of strong shocks only takes 3/11 in type B swarms. No doubt, PP cluster analysis method can effectively distinguish precursory swarms (type A) and correctly judge the short-and medium-term trend in the areaaround the earthquake swarms. Being a new and useful classification, PP cluster provides a wide application tothe identification of the type of earthquake sequence.

Temporo-spatial Characteristics of Swarm Distribution before Two Ms6.0 Earthquakes in the Tianshan Area,China and Their Application to Earthquake Prediction

The Nilka-Gongliu earthquake with M_S6.0 and Xinyuan-Hejing earthquake with M_S6. 6 successively occurred in Xinjiang on November 1,2011 and June 30,2012. Massive swarm activity was observed in a large area around the main shock epicenters before the two strong earthquakes. Main features are as follows:(1) The swarm activities not only increased significantly in number of earthquakes,but also presented a distinct swarm gap in spatial distribution,and the epicenters of the following strong earthquakes were all located in the swarm gap.(2) The duration of the swarm gap lasted longer,for 2-3 years.(3) The time-history characteristics of the swarms cumulative frequency indicates that swarm activity was quieter a few months before the main shocks. Finally,we discuss the results as well as the issues of their application in earthquake prediction.

Fine upper crustal structure of Jiashi strong earthquake swarm region in Xinjiang in-ferred from high resolution seismic refraction profile data

The data obtained from a high resolution seismic refraction profile, which was carded out in Jiashi, Xinjiang, strong earthquake swarm area, were processed with both finite difference inversion and Hagedoorn refractor wavefront imaging technique and the fine upper crustal structure was determined. The results show that the upper crustal structure is relatively well-distributed in laterally and obviously by layers vertically.From surface to 11.0 km depth, there are about four layers. The P wave velocity of top two layers range from 1.65 to 4.5 km/s and their bottom boundaries, the buried depths of which are 0.4, 2.96-3.0 km respectively, are almost horizontal; The third layer is comparatively complicated and its P wave velocity presents inhomogeneous in both laterally and vertically. The bottom boundary of third layer is crystalline basement and shows a little uplift, which seemly suggest that the upper crust had been resisted while the hard Tarim block inserting into Tianshan Mountain; The forth layer is relatively even and its P wave velocity is about 6.3 km/s. There are a lateral velocity variation at the depth of about 4.0 km, and suggest that it has something to do with the hidden Meigaiti fault and Meigaiti-Xiasuhong fault but there are no the structure features about these faults stretching to the surface and passing through the crystalline basement. The seismogenic tectonic of Jiashi strong earthquake swarm at least lies in middle or lower crust beneath 11.0 km depth.

Basement interface structural characteristics beneath Jiashi strong earthquake swarm area in Xinjiang, China

The seismic data obtained from high resolution seismic refraction profile in Jiashi strong earthquake swarm area in Xinjiang, China were further processed with ray hit analysis method and more complete basement interface structural characteristics beneath Jiashi strong earthquake swarm area were determined. The results show that there are two clear basement interfaces at the upper crust in Jiashi strong earthquake swarm area. The first one with buried depth ranging from 2.6 km to 3.3 km presents integral and continuous structure, and it appears an inclined plane interface and smoothly rises up toward Tianshan Mountain. The second basement interface with buried depth from 8.5 km to 11.8 km, is the antiquated crystalline basement of Tarim basin. Near the post number of 37 km, the buried depth of the crystalline basement changed abruptly by 2.5 km, which maybe result from an ultra crystalline basement fault. If taking this fault as a boundary, the crystalline basement could be divided into two parts, i.e. the southwestern segment with buried depth about 11.5 km, and the northeastern segment with buried depth approxi-mately from 8.5 km to 9.0 km. That is to say, in each segment, the buried depth changes not too much. The northeast segment rises up as a whole and upheaves slightly from southwest to northeast, which reflects the upper crustal deformation characteristics under the special tectonic background at the northwestern edge of Tarim basin.