Evaluation and Driving Force Analysis of Cultivated Land Quality in Black Soil Region of Northeast China

Cultivated land is an important natural resource to ensure food,ecological and economic security.The cultivated land quality evaluation(CQE)is greatly significant for protecting and managing cultivated land.In this study,320 counties in the black soil region of Northeast China(BSRNC)represent the research units used to construct the CQE system measuring the soil properties(SP),cultivated land productivity(CLP),ecological environment(EE)and social economy(SE).The total of 19 factors were selected to calculate the integrated fertility index(IFI)and divided into grades.Simultaneously,we used the coupling coordination degree model to comprehensively analyze the spatial pattern of the cultivated land quality(CLQ)in the BSRNC,and use the structural equation model(SEM)to analyze the driving mechanism.The results show the following:1)The CLQ of 262 counties in the BSRNC is in a state of coupling and coordination,and the coupling and coordination degree presents a spatial distribution pattern of‘high in the southwest and northeast,low in the northwest and southeast’.The coordinated development degree of 271 counties is between 0.4 and 0.6,which is in a transitional state between coordination and disorder.2)The CLQ in the BSRNC is generally good,with an average grade of 3.High-quality cultivated land accounts for 58.45%of all counties,middle-and upper-quality cultivated land accounts for 27.05%,and poor-quality cultivated land accounts for 14.49%.3)The SEM analysis shows that the SP,CLP,EE,and SE all influence the CLQ.Among them,the SP has the largest driving force on the CLQ,while the SE has the smallest driving force on it.The results confirm that the main factors affecting the evaluation results are crop productivity level,normalized difference vegetation index,ratio vegetation index,difference vegetation index,and organic carbon content.When implementing protection measures in counties with a low CLQ,considering a balanced coordination of multiple systems and reasonably controlling the quality degradation are important.This study provides the current situation and driving factors of the CLQ in the BSRNC and will play an important role in black soil governance and utilization.

Study on the Method of Soil Productivity Assessment in Black Soil Region of Northeast China

The objective of this paper is to investigate a simple and practical method for soil productivity assessment in the black soil region of Northeast China. Firstly, eight kinds of physicochemical properties for each of 120 soil samples collected from 25 black soil profiles were analyzed using cluster and correlation analysis. Subsequently, parameter indices were calculated using physicochemical properties. Finally, a modified productivity index （MPI） model were developed and validated. The results showed that the suitable parameters for soil productivity assessment in black soil region of Northeast China were soil available water, soil pH, clay content, and organic matter content. Compared with original productivity index （PI） model, MPI model added clay content and organic matter content in parameters while omitted bulk density. Simulation results of original PI model and MPI model were compared using crop yield of land block where investigated soil profiles were located. MPI model was proven to perform better with a higher significant correlation with maize yield. The correlation equation between MPI and yield was： Y= 3.2002Ln（MP/）＋ 10.056, R^2 = 0.7564. The results showed that MPI model was an effective and practical method to assess soil productivity in the research area.

Soil loss tolerance in the black soil region of Northeast China

Soil loss tolerance （/） is the maximum rate of annual soil erosion that is tolerated and still allows a high level of crop productivity to be sustained economically and indefinitely. In the black soil region of Northeast China, an empirically determined, default Tvalue of 200 （t/km2.a） is used for designing land restoration strategies for different types of soils. The ob- jective of this study was to provide a methodology to calculate a quantitative T for different black soil species. A field investigation was conducted to determine the typical soil profiles of 21 black soil species in the study area and a quantitative methodology based on a modified soil productivity index model was established to calculate the Tvalues. These values, which varied from 68 t/km2.a to 358 t/km2-a, yielded an average Tvalue of 141 t/km2.a for the 21 soil species. This is 29.5% lower than the current national standard T value. Two significant factors that influenced the T value were soil thickness and vulnerability to erosion. An acceptable reduction rate of soil productivity over a planned time period of 1% is recommended as necessary for maintaining long-term sustainable soil productivity. Compared with the cur- rently used of regional unified standard T value, the proposed method, which determines T using specific soil profile indices, has more practical implications for effective, sustainable management of soil and water conservation.

气候变化和物候变动对东北黑土区农业生产的协同作用及未来粮食生产风险

The black soil region of northeast China is a vital food base and is one of the most sensitive regions to climate change in China.However,the characteristics of the crop phenological response and the integrated impact of climate and phenological changes on agricultural productivity in the region under the background of climate change are not clear.The future agricultural risk assessment has been insufficiently quantified and the existing risk level formulation lacks a sound basis.Based on remote sensing products,climate data,and model simulations,this study integrated a logistic function fitting curvature derivation,multiple linear regression,and scenario simulation to investigate crop phenology dynamics and their climate response characteristics in the black soil region.Additionally,the compound effects of climate and phenology changes on agricultural production and possible future risks were identified.The key results were as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2017,29.76%of the black soil region of northeast China experienced a significant delay in the start of the growing season(SOS)and 16.71%of the total area displayed a trend for the end of the growing season(EOS)to arrive earlier.The time lagged effects of the SOS in terms of the crop response to climatic factors were site and climatic parameter dependent.The influence of temperature was widespread and its effect had a longer lag time in general;(2)Both climatic and phenological changes have had a significant effect on the inter-annual variability of crop production,and the predictive ability of both increased by 70.23%,while the predictive area expanded by 85.04%,as compared to that of climate change in the same period of the growing season;(3)Under the RCP8.5 scenario,there was a risk that the future crop yield would decrease in the north and increase in the south,and the risk area was constantly expanding.With a 2.0℃rise in global temperature,the crop yield of the southern Songnen black soil sub-region would reduce by almost 10%.This finding will improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate change and vegetation productivity dynamics,and is also helpful in the promotion of the risk management of agrometeorological disasters.