The Bohai-Yellow Sea Rimland (BYSR) is situated along the coast of theBohai Sea and the Yellow Sea in the northeast of China, covering Liaoning, Hebei, and Shandong provinces, and Tianjin and Beijing municipalities. I...The Bohai-Yellow Sea Rimland (BYSR) is situated along the coast of theBohai Sea and the Yellow Sea in the northeast of China, covering Liaoning, Hebei, and Shandong provinces, and Tianjin and Beijing municipalities. It has a land area of 491,000 square kilometers, 5.1 percent of the country’s total, and a population of 196 million, 17.9 percent of the total. Theregion is not only the political and cultural center, but also the most important economic center in North China. This paper analyses current status and major problems of industrial structure and distribution of BYSR. According to the national plan, the main goal in the coming decade is: by constantly improving economic structure, economic quality and efficiency, to double the gross national product(GNP), and to raise living standards to a satisfactory level. To realize this goal, agriculture, energy, transportation, some important raw material of industries, and infrastructure should be strengthened, and the engineering industry be improved to展开更多
为了改进温带气旋数值预报的精度,基于WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,利用GSI(Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation)-EnKF(Ensemble Kalman Filter)系统,设计了一套温带气旋集合预报方法,其具有的2种选择方案通过滤掉质...为了改进温带气旋数值预报的精度,基于WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,利用GSI(Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation)-EnKF(Ensemble Kalman Filter)系统,设计了一套温带气旋集合预报方法,其具有的2种选择方案通过滤掉质量较差的集合成员从而将集合成员数目控制在10以内,达到了大幅降低集合预报计算量的目的。针对2020年7月一次影响黄海的温带气旋个例,开展了一系列决定性预报与集合预报的数值对比试验。分析结果如下:1)不采取任何择优方案的集合预报效果就已经明显优于决定性预报,而采取择优方案使得预报效果进一步得到提升;2)预报初始时刻择优(直接择优方案)的集合预报效果远不如短时积分3h后才进行择优(积分择优方案)的预报效果;3)积分择优方案优于直接择优方案的原因是,初始场集合体中的成员经过短时积分后其误差得以放大而使得择优更加准确。多个例的应用结果进一步表明,本文提出的积分择优方案温带气旋集合预报方法具有较好的业务预报应用前景。展开更多
文摘The Bohai-Yellow Sea Rimland (BYSR) is situated along the coast of theBohai Sea and the Yellow Sea in the northeast of China, covering Liaoning, Hebei, and Shandong provinces, and Tianjin and Beijing municipalities. It has a land area of 491,000 square kilometers, 5.1 percent of the country’s total, and a population of 196 million, 17.9 percent of the total. Theregion is not only the political and cultural center, but also the most important economic center in North China. This paper analyses current status and major problems of industrial structure and distribution of BYSR. According to the national plan, the main goal in the coming decade is: by constantly improving economic structure, economic quality and efficiency, to double the gross national product(GNP), and to raise living standards to a satisfactory level. To realize this goal, agriculture, energy, transportation, some important raw material of industries, and infrastructure should be strengthened, and the engineering industry be improved to
文摘为了改进温带气旋数值预报的精度,基于WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,利用GSI(Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation)-EnKF(Ensemble Kalman Filter)系统,设计了一套温带气旋集合预报方法,其具有的2种选择方案通过滤掉质量较差的集合成员从而将集合成员数目控制在10以内,达到了大幅降低集合预报计算量的目的。针对2020年7月一次影响黄海的温带气旋个例,开展了一系列决定性预报与集合预报的数值对比试验。分析结果如下:1)不采取任何择优方案的集合预报效果就已经明显优于决定性预报,而采取择优方案使得预报效果进一步得到提升;2)预报初始时刻择优(直接择优方案)的集合预报效果远不如短时积分3h后才进行择优(积分择优方案)的预报效果;3)积分择优方案优于直接择优方案的原因是,初始场集合体中的成员经过短时积分后其误差得以放大而使得择优更加准确。多个例的应用结果进一步表明,本文提出的积分择优方案温带气旋集合预报方法具有较好的业务预报应用前景。
