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Combined blasting for protection of gob-side roadway with thick and hard roof
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作者 Qiang Fu Jun Yang +4 位作者 Yubing Gao Changjiang Li Hongxu Song Yuxuan Liu Xing Wu 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第8期3165-3180,共16页
The deformation control of surrounding rock in gobside roadway with thick and hard roof poses a significant challenge to the safety and efficiency of coal mining.To address this issue,a novel approach combining direct... The deformation control of surrounding rock in gobside roadway with thick and hard roof poses a significant challenge to the safety and efficiency of coal mining.To address this issue,a novel approach combining directional and non-directional blasting techniques,known as combined blasting,was proposed.This study focuses on the experimental investigation of the proposed method in the 122108 working face in Caojiatan Coal Mine as the engineering background.The initial phase of the study involves physical model experiments to reveal the underlying mechanisms of combined blasting for protecting gob-side roadway with thick and hard roof.The results demonstrate that this approach effectively accelerates the collapse of thick and hard roofs,enhances the fragmentation and expansion coefficient of gangue,facilitates the filling of the goaf with gangue,and provides support to the overlying strata,thus reducing the subsidence of the overlying strata above the goaf.Additionally,the method involves cutting the main roof into shorter beams to decrease the stress and disrupt stress transmission pathways.Subsequent numerical simulations were conducted to corroborate the findings of the physical model experiments,thus validating the accuracy of the experimental results.Furthermore,field engineering experiments were performed,affirming the efficacy of the combined blasting method in mitigating the deformation of surrounding rock and achieving the desired protection of the gob-side roadway. 展开更多
关键词 Thick and hard roof Surrounding rock control combined blasting Fragmentation and expansion support stress relief
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Experimental study on the bolt–cable combined supporting technology for the extraction roadways in weakly cemented strata 被引量:14
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作者 Meng Qingbin Han Lijun +3 位作者 Sun Jingwu Min Fengqing Feng Wei Zhou Xing 《International Journal of Mining Science and Technology》 SCIE EI CSCD 2015年第1期113-119,共7页
Aiming at the characteristics of the poor steady ability, the short stable time and severe deformation behavior of weakly cemented soft surrounding rock around extraction roadway, a bolt–cable combined supporting tec... Aiming at the characteristics of the poor steady ability, the short stable time and severe deformation behavior of weakly cemented soft surrounding rock around extraction roadway, a bolt–cable combined supporting technology was proposed. Numerical simulation was performed by using FLAC3 D software to study the effects of different supporting systems. The simulation result proves that those supporting systems have good practical values. Based on real-time monitoring and analysis of the deformation of surrounding rock and the stress of supporting structure, real time information of deformation of surrounding rock and stress state of supporting structure of extraction roadway within weakly cemented strata was obtained. Monitoring results show that large deformation and failure of surrounding rock of extraction roadway within weakly cemented strata can be effectively controlled by the bolt–cable combined supporting technology, which ensures the long-term stability and safety of surrounding rock and supporting structure. 展开更多
关键词 Weakly cemented strataExtraction roadwayBolt-cable combined supporting technologyReal-time monitoring
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Classification of power quality combined disturbances based on phase space reconstruction and support vector machines 被引量:3
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作者 Zhi-yong LI Wei-lin WU 《Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A(Applied Physics & Engineering)》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2008年第2期173-181,共9页
Power Quality (PQ) combined disturbances become common along with ubiquity of voltage flickers and harmonics. This paper presents a novel approach to classify the different patterns of PQ combined disturbances. The cl... Power Quality (PQ) combined disturbances become common along with ubiquity of voltage flickers and harmonics. This paper presents a novel approach to classify the different patterns of PQ combined disturbances. The classification system consists of two parts, namely the feature extraction and the automatic recognition. In the feature extraction stage, Phase Space Reconstruction (PSR), a time series analysis tool, is utilized to construct disturbance signal trajectories. For these trajectories, several indices are proposed to form the feature vectors. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are then implemented to recognize the different patterns and to evaluate the efficiencies. The types of disturbances discussed include a combination of short-term dis-turbances (voltage sags, swells) and long-term disturbances (flickers, harmonics), as well as their homologous single ones. The feasibilities of the proposed approach are verified by simulation with thousands of PQ events. Comparison studies based on Wavelet Transform (WT) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) are also reported to show its advantages. 展开更多
关键词 Power Quality (PQ) combined disturbance CLASSIFICATION Phase Space Reconstruction (PSR) support Vector Machines (SVMs)
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Combined support mechanism of rock bolts and anchor cables for adjacent roadways in the external staggered split-level panel layout 被引量:2
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作者 Adrian Batugin Zhiqiang Wang +1 位作者 Zehua Su Shermatova Sayyora Sidikovna 《International Journal of Coal Science & Technology》 EI CAS CSCD 2021年第4期659-673,共15页
Using the spatial structure of the external staggered split-level panel layout,a combined support technology for adjacent roadways was developed and analyzed for a rock bolt and anchor cable mechanism.The influence of... Using the spatial structure of the external staggered split-level panel layout,a combined support technology for adjacent roadways was developed and analyzed for a rock bolt and anchor cable mechanism.The influence of the side rock bolt and anchor cable parameters on the mechanical properties of the anchorage body and the support stress distribution of the lateral coal body were revealed using the FLAC3D software.The optimal support parameters of the side rock bolts and anchor cables were subsequently determined,and the support effect of gob-side entry in a mining scenario was verified.The results show that the support of the side rock bolts and anchor cables improves the mechanical properties and stress state of the anchorage body,producing a good protective effect on the coal body of the air-intake entry roof and side wall.This is beneficial to the stability of the side wall and the realization of the suspension effect for roof rock bolts and anchor cables,which in turn makes the surrounding rock maintenance of the gob-side entry to a thick coal seam more favorable. 展开更多
关键词 combined support Split-level panel layout External staggered gob-side entry Adjacent roadways
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Development of multi-functional anchorage support dynamic-static coupling performance test system and its application
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作者 Qi Wang Shuo Xu +4 位作者 Bei Jiang Chong Zhang Zhe Sun Jingxuan Liu Cailin Jiao 《International Journal of Mining Science and Technology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第3期339-349,共11页
In underground engineering with complex conditions,the bolt(cable)anchorage support system is in an environment where static and dynamic stresses coexist,under the action of geological conditions such as high stresses... In underground engineering with complex conditions,the bolt(cable)anchorage support system is in an environment where static and dynamic stresses coexist,under the action of geological conditions such as high stresses and strong disturbances and construction conditions such as the application of high prestress.It is essential to study the support components performance under dynamic-static coupling conditions.Based on this,a multi-functional anchorage support dynamic-static coupling performance test system(MAC system)is developed,which can achieve 7 types of testing functions,including single component performance,anchored net performance,anchored rock performance and so on.The bolt and cable mechanical tests are conducted by MAC system under different prestress levels.The results showed that compared to the non-prestress condition,the impact resistance performance of prestressed bolts(cables)is significantly reduced.In the prestress range of 50–160 k N,the maximum reduction rate of impact energy resisted by different types of bolts is 53.9%–61.5%compared to non-prestress condition.In the prestress range of 150–300 k N,the impact energy resisted by high-strength cable is reduced by76.8%–84.6%compared to non-prestress condition.The MAC system achieves dynamic-static coupling performance test,which provide an effective means for the design of anchorage support system. 展开更多
关键词 Anchorage support system Development of test system Dynamic-static coupling test combined stress
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A new spatial coherence model and analytical coeffi cients for multi-support response spectrum combination 被引量:3
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作者 王君杰 陈虎 《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 SCIE EI CSCD 2007年第3期225-235,共11页
In this paper, a new spatial coherence model of seismic ground motions is proposed by a fitting procedure. The analytical expressions of modal combination (correlation) coefficients of structural response are develo... In this paper, a new spatial coherence model of seismic ground motions is proposed by a fitting procedure. The analytical expressions of modal combination (correlation) coefficients of structural response are developed for multi-support seismic excitations. The coefficients from both the numerical integration and analytical solutions are compared to verify the accuracy of the solutions. It is shown that the analytical expressions of numerical modal combination coefficients are of high accuracy. The results of random responses of an example bridge show that the analytical modal combination coefficients developed in this paper are accurate enough to meet the requirements needed in practice. In addition, the computational efficiency of the analytical solutions of the modal combination coefficients is demonstrated by the response computation of the example bridge. It is found that the time required for the structural response analysis by using the analytical modal combination coefficients is less than 1/20 of that using numerical integral methods. 展开更多
关键词 multi-support seismic excitations spatial coherence model modal combination coefficients computational efficiency power spectrum density
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Online Fault Prediction Based on Combined AOSVR and ARMA Models
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作者 Da-Tong Liu Yu Peng Xi-Yuan Peng 《Journal of Electronic Science and Technology of China》 2009年第4期303-307,共5页
Accurate fault prediction can obviously reduce cost and decrease the probability of accidents so as to improve the performance of the system testing and maintenance. Traditional fault prediction methods are always off... Accurate fault prediction can obviously reduce cost and decrease the probability of accidents so as to improve the performance of the system testing and maintenance. Traditional fault prediction methods are always offline that are not suitable for online and real-time processing. For the complicated nonlinear and non-stationary time series, it is hard to achieve exact predicting result with single models such as support vector regression (SVR), artifieial neural network (ANN), and autoregressive moving average (ARMA). Combined with the accurate online support vector regression (AOSVR) algorithm and ARMA model, a new online approach is presented to forecast fault with time series prediction. The fault trend feature can be extracted by the AOSVR with global kernel for general fault modes. Moreover, its prediction residual that represents the local high-frequency components is synchronously revised and compensated by the sliding time window ARMA model. Fault prediction with combined AOSVR and ARMA can be realized better than with the single one. Experiments on Tennessee Eastman process fault data show the new method is practical and effective. 展开更多
关键词 Accurate online support vector regression (AOSVR) autoregressive moving average (ARMA) combined predicttion fault prediction time series.
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Combined transplantation of GDAs^(BMP) and hr-decorin in spinal cord contusion repair 被引量:6
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作者 Liang Wu Jianjun Li +3 位作者 Liang Chen Hong Zhang Li Yuan Stephen JA Davies 《Neural Regeneration Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第24期2236-2248,共13页
Following spinal cord injury, astrocyte proliferation and scar formation are the main factors inhibiting the regeneration and growth of spinal cord axons. Recombinant decorin suppresses inflammatory reactions, inhibit... Following spinal cord injury, astrocyte proliferation and scar formation are the main factors inhibiting the regeneration and growth of spinal cord axons. Recombinant decorin suppresses inflammatory reactions, inhibits glial scar formation, and promotes axonal growth. Rat models of T8 spinal cord contusion were created with the NYU impactor and these models were subjected to combined transplantation of bone morphogenetic protein-4-induced glial-restricted precursor-derived astro- cytes and human recombinant decorin transplantation. At 28 days after spinal cord contusion, dou- ble-immunofluorescent histochemistry revealed that combined transplantation inhibited the early in- flammatory response in injured rats. Furthermore, brain-derived neurotrophic factor, which was se- creted by transplanted cells, protected injured axons. The combined transplantation promoted ax- onal regeneration and growth of injured motor and sensory neurons by inhibiting astrocyte prolif- eration and glial scar formation, with astrocytes forming a linear arrangement in the contused spinal cord, thus providing axonal regeneration channels. 展开更多
关键词 neural regeneration spinal cord injury astrocytes glial scar neural stem cells combined trans-plantation glial progenitor cells glial cells human recombinant decorin brain-derived growth factor glial fibrillary acidic protein grants-supported paper NEUROREGENERATION
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Tall gastrodis tuber combined with antiepileptic drugs repairs abnormal perfusion foci in focal epilepsy 被引量:2
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作者 Weimin Wang Zhenyu Fan +6 位作者 Yongqin Zhang Yuxia Yang Yaqing Liu Xiaoli Dang Wenjun Song Yinping Wu Jiang Ye 《Neural Regeneration Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第3期208-217,共10页
One hundred patients with focal epilepsy were recruited for the present study and their seizures controlled with antiepileptic drugs. The patients then orally received a capsule of tall gastrodis tuber powder, a tradi... One hundred patients with focal epilepsy were recruited for the present study and their seizures controlled with antiepileptic drugs. The patients then orally received a capsule of tall gastrodis tuber powder, a traditional Chinese drug, and underwent single photon emission computed tomography, long-term electroencephalogram, and CT/MRI. Blood drug levels were monitored throughout the study. Before treatment with tall gastrodis tuber, 35 of the 100 cases had abnormal CT/MRI scans; 79 cases had abnormal single photon emission computed tomography images; 86 cases had abnormal electroencephalogram; and a total of 146 abnormal perfusion foci were observed across the 100 subjects. After treatment, the number of patients with normal single photon emission computed tomography images increased by 12; normal electroencephalogram was observed in an additional 27 cases and the number of patients with epileptiform discharge decreased by 29 (34% of 86); the total number of abnormal perfusion foci decreased by 52 (36%) and changes in abnormal loci were visible in 65 patients. These changes indicate that the administration of tall gastrodis tuber in combination with antiepileptic drugs repairs abnormal perfusion foci in patients with focal epilepsy Our results demonstrate that traditional Chinese drugs can repair abnormal perfusion foci and, as such, are a promising new pathway in the treatment of focal epilepsy. 展开更多
关键词 neural regeneration traditional Chinese medicine neuroimaging brain injury tall gastrodis tuber antiepileptic drugs combination therapy focal epilepsy abnormal perfusion focus single photonemission computed tomography long-term vigilance-controlled electroencephalogram region ofinterest grant-supported paper photographs-containin^l paper: neuoreaeneration
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深基坑桩-撑-土组合支护结构的受力特性与优化设计
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作者 林宇亮 程勇 +4 位作者 刘玮 王斌 高文慧 李柔锋 李志宏 《中南大学学报(自然科学版)》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第6期2162-2174,共13页
依托某高层建筑深基坑工程,通过现场试验获得不同施工阶段组合支护结构及基坑关键部位的变形规律。基于土体硬化模型建立深基坑组合支护体系的三维数值模型,对基坑开挖施工进行全过程模拟,分析支护结构体系的桩身弯矩、桩身位移和土压... 依托某高层建筑深基坑工程,通过现场试验获得不同施工阶段组合支护结构及基坑关键部位的变形规律。基于土体硬化模型建立深基坑组合支护体系的三维数值模型,对基坑开挖施工进行全过程模拟,分析支护结构体系的桩身弯矩、桩身位移和土压力分布规律。针对反压土的顶宽、高度、坡度以及斜支撑的间距、直径等影响因素设计正交试验,对围护桩受力变形的影响参数进行敏感性分析,并提出优化建议。研究结果表明:围护桩最大位移与最大正弯矩随反压土顶宽、高度、斜支撑直径的增大而减小,随着反压土坡度、斜支撑间距的增大而增大。桩身变形影响因素敏感性从大至小依次为反压土坡高、顶宽、反压土坡度、斜支撑间距和斜支撑直径;对组合支护体系进行设计时,建议在确定土坡自稳角度的前提下,尽量增大反压土土坡高度。 展开更多
关键词 基坑工程 组合支护结构 反压土 斜支撑 受力特性 优化设计
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基于SARIMA和SVR组合模型的转向架系统寿命评估
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作者 师蔚 范乔 +2 位作者 杨洋 胡定玉 廖爱华 《铁道机车车辆》 北大核心 2024年第1期157-163,共7页
随着地铁运营时间和里程的增加,地铁车辆逐渐接近其理论寿命,为确保车辆运行安全性,需对其重要子系统进行健康状态及剩余寿命评估。文中选取车辆转向架系统作为研究对象,提出了一种基于协方差优选法的季节性回归移动平均(SARIMA)和支持... 随着地铁运营时间和里程的增加,地铁车辆逐渐接近其理论寿命,为确保车辆运行安全性,需对其重要子系统进行健康状态及剩余寿命评估。文中选取车辆转向架系统作为研究对象,提出了一种基于协方差优选法的季节性回归移动平均(SARIMA)和支持向量回归(SVR)的组合模型对转向架寿命进行评估。首先,将车辆转向架系统历史故障率转化为健康指数,然后基于协方差优选法将SARIMA和SVR进行赋权组合,根据转向架系统历史健康指数进行预测,最后建立历史和预测的健康指数与运行时间的数学模型,分析得到转向架系统的剩余寿命。以某地铁车辆转向架系统为例进行算例分析及验证,结果表明组合模型可更准确地预测其健康状态,为有关维修部门开展维修维护策略提供理论依据,估计得出其剩余寿命,为车辆寿命后期退役及延寿决策提供理论数据分析支撑。 展开更多
关键词 转向架系统 寿命预测 季节性回归移动平均和支持向量回归(SARIMA和SVR) 组合模型 协方差优选法
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SMW工法桩施工过程中变形监测与三维有限元数值模型的建立
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作者 刘红军 何陆灏 陈锋 《建筑技术》 2024年第6期668-671,共4页
SMW工法桩是基坑工程中的一种组合支护形式,兼具挡土与止水的作用,具有造价低、施工便捷、对基坑周边影响较小等优势。依托广东江门某基坑工程,通过现场监测和建立三维有限元模型数值模拟的方法对SMW工法桩施工过程中的变形进行研究。... SMW工法桩是基坑工程中的一种组合支护形式,兼具挡土与止水的作用,具有造价低、施工便捷、对基坑周边影响较小等优势。依托广东江门某基坑工程,通过现场监测和建立三维有限元模型数值模拟的方法对SMW工法桩施工过程中的变形进行研究。结果表明:围护结构桩顶水平位移的模拟值与实测值两者之差在3 mm以内,桩顶竖向位移模拟值与实测值两者之差在1 mm以内;实测数据与数值模拟结果基本拟合,所建立的三维有限元数值模型与实际工程结构较为相符,在施工过程中将现场监测与数值模拟相结合,以确保工程施工的质量与安全。 展开更多
关键词 SMW工法桩 基坑工程 组合支护形式 变形监测 三维有限元模型
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人口老龄化背景下我国医养结合的财税支持政策
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作者 刘春芝 时晨晨 《沈阳师范大学学报(社会科学版)》 2024年第4期61-69,共9页
老年人口比重的不断加大和养老需求的增加,对我国养老保障体系提出了更高的要求。我国医养结合养老服务业相关财税政策还存在财政政策执行力不强、政府购买服务效果不佳、税收支持系统性不足等问题。实证研究表明,财政支出的增加对医养... 老年人口比重的不断加大和养老需求的增加,对我国养老保障体系提出了更高的要求。我国医养结合养老服务业相关财税政策还存在财政政策执行力不强、政府购买服务效果不佳、税收支持系统性不足等问题。实证研究表明,财政支出的增加对医养结合养老服务业的发展有明显的激励作用,税收负担的增加对医养结合养老服务业的发展有明显的抑制作用。因此,应该进一步建立财政收支管理体制,明确财政支出责任,同时加大税收支持政策优惠力度,从而保证医养结合养老服务业能够持续均衡地发展,在缓解人口老龄化问题的同时推动我国“银发经济”的发展。 展开更多
关键词 人口老龄化 医养结合 PPP模式 养老服务业 财税支持政策
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高速钢桶焊缝机电机座支撑脚复合模设计
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作者 王东钢 肖国华 +3 位作者 左桂兰 刘红燕 贺玉强 杨少增 《模具工业》 2024年第1期18-22,共5页
针对高速钢桶焊缝机电机座支撑脚使用2 mm厚的SECC板料进行中小批量冲压成形的要求,设计了3副模具用于制件的4道工序成形。冲孔落料和修边压印采用倒装式复合模结构、切分模和弯曲模采用正装结构,且切分模和弯曲模集成在1副模具内。弯... 针对高速钢桶焊缝机电机座支撑脚使用2 mm厚的SECC板料进行中小批量冲压成形的要求,设计了3副模具用于制件的4道工序成形。冲孔落料和修边压印采用倒装式复合模结构、切分模和弯曲模采用正装结构,且切分模和弯曲模集成在1副模具内。弯曲模中设计了凸模驱动的双滑块内收弯曲成形机构,该机构在制件弯曲壁的两侧都使用滑块进行夹紧驱动弯曲,能有效防止弯曲回弹,保证了制件的弯曲成形尺寸。模具结构简单实用,成形工艺设计合理,实现了制件的自动化生产。 展开更多
关键词 高速钢桶焊缝机 电机座支撑脚 冲压成形 组合模具 弯曲成形 结构设计
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装配式双拼钢围檩的拼接节点承载性能研究
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作者 贾冬云 王鸿宇 +3 位作者 吴志豪 陈杨杰 李雪峰 杨辉 《安徽冶金科技职业学院学报》 2024年第2期1-3,共3页
结合某下穿通道基坑开挖的装配式钢结构支护体系,对双拼钢围檩拼接节点及相关组合桩和支撑进行现场测试,获取围檩承担的荷载数据,进而建立有限元分析模型。对比有限元计算值与实测值,分析拼接节点的承载性能。结果表明,依据等值梁法所... 结合某下穿通道基坑开挖的装配式钢结构支护体系,对双拼钢围檩拼接节点及相关组合桩和支撑进行现场测试,获取围檩承担的荷载数据,进而建立有限元分析模型。对比有限元计算值与实测值,分析拼接节点的承载性能。结果表明,依据等值梁法所得的组合桩内力可以用于围檩的荷载计算;拼接节点的有限元计算结果与现场监测数据较吻合,可为装配式双拼钢围檩的应用提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 装配式钢结构支护体系 双拼钢围檩 拼接节点 组合型钢板桩 承载性能
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政策支持视角下中小企业数字化转型的演化博弈分析 被引量:5
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作者 王文 郭彬 《技术与创新管理》 2024年第1期60-71,共12页
为探究政策支持对中小企业数字化转型的作用效果,文中构建中小企业与政府的演化博弈模型,运用Matlab数值仿真分析了财政奖补、税费优惠、服务供给3种单一政策及政策组合对政企策略选择的动态影响。研究发现:单一政策支持须达到一定阈值... 为探究政策支持对中小企业数字化转型的作用效果,文中构建中小企业与政府的演化博弈模型,运用Matlab数值仿真分析了财政奖补、税费优惠、服务供给3种单一政策及政策组合对政企策略选择的动态影响。研究发现:单一政策支持须达到一定阈值才能有效促进中小企业数字化转型,且在相同支持力度下,财政奖补、税费优惠、服务供给的政策促进效果依次递增;两种政策组合显著加快了中小企业数字化转型的演化速度,其中税费优惠与服务供给的政策组合效果最佳;3种政策组合下,低强度的政策支持促使系统快速稳定于(数字化转型,支持)理想状态,高强度的政策组合反而不利系统演化。结果表明:政府推动中小企业数字化转型应重视扶持政策的激励作用、选择高效的政策组合方案、采取合适的政策支持力度。 展开更多
关键词 数字化转型 中小企业 演化博弈 数值仿真 政策支持 政策组合
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深厚软土地区倾斜桩组合支护基坑稳定性研究 被引量:1
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作者 王淞 刘永超 +2 位作者 张建新 胡军 刘岩 《地下空间与工程学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第2期556-565,576,共11页
倾斜桩组合支护是一种新型基坑支护形式,适用于大面积无内支撑的基坑。本文依托天津市某倾斜桩支护基坑项目,设计6种预制桩支护对比结构,其中4种为倾斜桩组合支护,进行基坑开挖大型现场试验,量测分析周边不同环境下各组合结构支护基坑... 倾斜桩组合支护是一种新型基坑支护形式,适用于大面积无内支撑的基坑。本文依托天津市某倾斜桩支护基坑项目,设计6种预制桩支护对比结构,其中4种为倾斜桩组合支护,进行基坑开挖大型现场试验,量测分析周边不同环境下各组合结构支护基坑的变形情况,并运用Plaxis 3D有限元软件进行基坑安全性分析。结果表明:不同形式的倾斜桩组合支护中,内斜直组合桩身位移最小,支护效果最优;基坑周边存在超挖等不利因素时,倾斜桩组合支护的刚架效应、斜撑效应与重力效应决定其依旧能较好地发挥自身稳定作用;软土蠕变对斜桩基坑支护影响亦不容忽视,开挖至坑底时,应及时施工垫层和底板;数值模拟分析发现倾斜桩组合支护基坑安全系数及临界破坏形态受超挖影响小于常规排桩支护,小幅超挖对基坑的稳定性影响较低。 展开更多
关键词 倾斜桩组合支护 现场试验 数值模拟 安全系数
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暴雨洪涝灾害转移安置人数的组合预测模型研究
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作者 张颖 杨晓婷 +2 位作者 韩业凡 吕伟 房志明 《中国安全生产科学技术》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第3期172-180,共9页
为了更加科学精准地预测暴雨洪涝灾害下需要转移安置的人数,收集2011—2018年全国范围内严重暴雨洪涝灾害案例,通过Pearson相关性分析检验转移安置人数与表征暴雨洪涝灾害严重程度影响因素之间的关系;分别使用基于主成分分析的回归模型... 为了更加科学精准地预测暴雨洪涝灾害下需要转移安置的人数,收集2011—2018年全国范围内严重暴雨洪涝灾害案例,通过Pearson相关性分析检验转移安置人数与表征暴雨洪涝灾害严重程度影响因素之间的关系;分别使用基于主成分分析的回归模型和支持向量机(SVM)预测暴雨洪涝灾害下需要转移安置人数,并以2种方法的结果为基础,提出1种组合预测方法对暴雨洪涝灾害转移人数进行修正。研究结果表明:组合预测法的MSE、MAE均小于回归预测和SVM模型预测。使用组合预测方法对洪涝灾害转移安置人数进行预测,可以充分结合单一预测模型的优势,提高组合预测模型的预测精度和泛化能力。研究结果可为确定暴雨洪涝灾害的避难需求并制定避难疏散计划提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 暴雨洪涝灾害 转移安置人数 组合预测 支持向量机(SVM)
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基于SVM-STL-LSTM的区域短期电力负荷预测研究 被引量:1
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作者 王晨 李又轩 +1 位作者 吴其琦 邬蓉蓉 《水电能源科学》 北大核心 2024年第4期215-218,共4页
针对区域电力负荷的时间序列数据随机性强、预测精度低及单一模型的数据特征提取能力差等问题,提出了一种支持向量机(SVM)、STL时序分解法、长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)组合的电力负荷预测模型。该模型利用SVM对时间序列的电力负荷数据进... 针对区域电力负荷的时间序列数据随机性强、预测精度低及单一模型的数据特征提取能力差等问题,提出了一种支持向量机(SVM)、STL时序分解法、长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)组合的电力负荷预测模型。该模型利用SVM对时间序列的电力负荷数据进行初始预测,并通过STL时序分解法对残差序列进行时序分解,从而提高残差序列的稳定性,减小其随机性,最后用LSTM对SVM的预测误差进行修正。试验结果证明,该方法利用误差修正可有效处理随机性强的数据,有利于预测结果的稳定性,提高预测精度。 展开更多
关键词 组合模型 支持向量机 STL时序分解 长短期记忆网络 短期预测 误差修正
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基于PSO-SVR算法的预弯BHA钻头合导向力预测方法
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作者 王昭彬 杨赫源 +2 位作者 王文昌 陈锋 狄勤丰 《上海大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第5期968-979,共12页
预弯底部钻具组合(bottom hole assembly,BHA)钻头合导向力对于井眼轨迹控制十分重要,但是传统的计算方法耗时耗力.提出了一种基于粒子群算法优化支持向量回归的快速预测预弯BHA钻头合导向力的方法.首先使用加权余量法求解BHA的三维小... 预弯底部钻具组合(bottom hole assembly,BHA)钻头合导向力对于井眼轨迹控制十分重要,但是传统的计算方法耗时耗力.提出了一种基于粒子群算法优化支持向量回归的快速预测预弯BHA钻头合导向力的方法.首先使用加权余量法求解BHA的三维小挠度力学模型,得到钻头合导向力,形成支持向量回归的样本空间;然后,使用粒子群算法优化支持向量回归参数,得到惩罚因子、核函数参数和不敏感系数的最优值;最后,结合实例,使用粒子群算法调参支持向量回归预测钻头合导向力,并对预测结果精度进行分析评价.研究结果表明,预弯BHA钻头合导向力预测精度较高,决定系数R^(2)达0.9568. 展开更多
关键词 预弯BHA 钻头合导向力 参数优化 粒子群优化 支持向量回归
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