The Influence of Bond Market Opening in Trade Field on RMB Internationalization Foreign Exchange Rate

In order to verify that the open bond market is the most direct choice to promote the internationalization of RMB,the empirical analysis method is used to analyze the impact of bond liberalization on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.Firstly,the data source processing method of empirical analysis is introduced.Then the dynamic panel data regression model and panel threshold model are built to verify the influence factors of RMB internationalization foreign exchange rate and the influence of debt market opening on RMB foreign exchange rate,respectively.The results show that the opening of the creditor's rights market has a significant positive promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate,and the development of the domestic creditor's rights market has a significant promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.The study has a certain role in promoting the status of China's currency in the international community.

Opening-up Domestic Bond Market in the Support of China’s Supply-Side Reform

This paper studies the opening-up of domestic bond market in the support of China’s supply-side reform by examining the five core elements about the reform,namely overcapacity trimming,inventory de-stocking,financial deleveraging,cost reduction,and improvement of weak links in the economy.By examining the relationship between bond market opening-up and each element of the reform,the paper comes to the conclusion that the opening-up of domestic bond market is supportive to China’s supply-side reform.

Research on Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism of China’s Bond Market:Empirical Analysis Based on Granger Causality Complex Network

The bond market is an important market for investment and financing in China’s economic sectors,and also an important part of the monetary policy framework.The internal transmission of bond market is an important part of market interest rate transmission,which iscritical to the effectiveness of monetary policy.However,few scholars have studied the characteristics of interest rate transmission in China.An in-depth study of the interest rate transmission mechanism and its dynamic evolution between different bond markets is conducive to clarify the pulse of transmission within Chinese bond market and to further unblock the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.From the perspective of system theory and based on the analysis method of Granger causality complex network,this paper finds that the interest rate transmission among various varieties in China’s bond market is relatively significant.Treasury bonds and CDB bonds are the two core bond varieties of interest rate transmission in the bond market.Simultaneously,this study concludes that the medium and long-term interest rate played a dominant role in the transmission of market interest rate during the easing phase of monetary policy,while the short-term interest rate played a dominant role in the transmission of market interest rate during the tightening phase of monetary policy.This paper also gives enlightenment and suggestions.

The Impact of New Monetary Policy Instruments on the Bond Market

Establishing a modern central banking system in China necessitates the deployment of a novel suite of monetary policy instruments and unencumbering of the channels through which these policies are transmitted.A critical aspect of evaluating the soundness and efficacy of monetary policy is to examine its capacity for tempering non-stationary volatility in the bond market.We use a synthetic difference in differences model(SynthDid),which draws upon panel data from eight countries spanning October 2011 to June 2022 period,to accurately determine the efficiency of the transmission of these monetary policy instruments.The Medium-term Lending Facility(MLF)can mitigate fluctuations in both medium-and long-term bond markets.Implementing a unified lending cycle of one year and expanding MLF collateral enhance the transmission efficiency of the newly established monetary policy instruments to the bond market.Additionally,the utilization of the Standing Lending Facility(SLF)substantially reduces the risk associated with short-and medium-term bond markets.Nevertheless,the efficacy of monetary policy transmission via different instruments varies in different periods.

Effect of economic policies on the stock and bond market under the impact of COVID-19

The global epidemic of COVID-19 has made a huge impact on global health and financial markets.And the spread of the virus has stalled economic development in many parts of the world.As stocks and bonds are two important financial assets,how to take appropriate economic policies to restore the stock and bond markets is the focus of governments as they are seeking for quick recovery.Based on the Event Study method and the GARCH model,data from 1 October 2019 to 1 April 2020 were collected from 26 countries or regions as analytic samples.The results show:1)COVID-19 has made greater impacts on the stock market than the bond market;2)the economic policy responses after the COVID-19 has brought impacts on both of the stock and the bond markets;3)the monetary policy responses has brought greater volatility to the stock market than the fiscal policy responses,while the fiscal policy responses has brought greater volatility to the bond market than the monetary policy;4)the fiscal policy has brought more positive effects on the stock market,and monetary policy has brought more positive effects on the bond market.This research is helpful to understand the mechanism of COVID-19’s impacts on the stock and bond market.And it is of great practical significance to the governments’decisions to make economic policy responses after an epidemic.

Did the Nationalist Government Manipulate the Chinese Bond Market？ A Quantitative Perspective on Short-Term Price Fluctuations of Domestic Government Bonds, 1932-1934

Based on a newly constructed set of data, this paper offers a quantitative perspective on the Nationalist Government＇s relations with China＇s domestic bond markets during the period 1932-34. For all the recent revisionist scholarship on the achievements of Nationalist state-building, the perception of the Nationalist elite as corrupt is still widely accepted. In order to demonstrate the empirical potential of quantitative financial history, this paper tests one particular assertion： that members of the Nationalist elite manipulated the issue price of domestic government bonds in order to enrich themselves and their associates. We test this by calculating two price data correlations： that of a first sample of government bonds, all of them issued before 1932, and that of a second sample of government bonds, which includes bonds issued during the period under review. The price fluctuations of the first sample are correlated with each other to a much higher degree than those of the second sample. This indicates that the prices of bonds in the first sample were reacting similarly to the same range of influences, while the bonds issued during the period under review and included in the second sample were displaying individual price fluctuations. One possible explanation for this is that members of the Nationalist elite enriched themselves or their associates by issuing domestic government bonds at artificially low prices. In sum, the article illustrates both the potential and the limitations of quantitative history： it allows us to test and dismiss a precisely formulated hypothesis about Nationalist corruption, but it is only one possible way in which statistical analysis can be applied and does not cover the wholeDid the Nationalist Government Manipulate the Chinese Bond Market？ realm of state practices

An Overview of China’s Bond Markets

This paper introduces the current structure and practice of China＇s bond markets in general and corporate bond market in particular. It analyses the factors behind the slow development of China＇s bond markets： heavy government intervention, underdevelopment of direct financing, etc. It also puts forward policy options in promoting bonds markets development, including reform of government regulatory framework and improving financial intermediaries and services.

Chinese Offshore RMB Currency and Bond Markets:The Role of Hong Kong

This paper discusses the role of Hong Kong in China＇s grand scheme to build up the RMB as a global reserve currency. We highlight the economic importance of Hong Kong to China in terms of channeling foreign direct investment into China, some of which, in the future, will be denominated in the RMB. We discuss the development of China＇s RMB currency swap and deposit markets in Hong Kong. These offshore markets enable the RMB to trade freely, setting the stage for the RMB to become fully convertible and allowing market forces to play a role in pricing the value of the RMB, and help in the development of the RMB-denominated bond （or dim sum bond） market in Hong Kong. Finally, we present evidence of the phenomenal growth of the dim sum bond market in Hong Kong, which can further enhance and strengthen the use of the RMB outside China.

我国不同付费模式信用评级校验机制研究

我国债券市场刚性兑付被打破后,不断出现高评级债券违约事件。为此,监管部门积极发展多种评级,以期提高债券评级质量。通过理论建模与实证分析,研究了不同付费模式信用评级如何综合发挥校验作用。基于博弈模型的理论分析发现,不同付费模式评级发挥校验作用的机制在于投资者的反应:当投资者付费和发行人付费两种模式评级差值增大,投资者不以单一评级结果进行债券定价,而是根据评级差值调整债券价格。基于2011—2020年企业债评级数据的经验证据显示,随着评级差值增大,发行人付费评级机构会降低后续评级,且评级差值对单一信用评级与债券信用利差之间的负向关系具有抑制作用。进一步检验发现,发行人付费评级机构提供的偏正面的私有信息会降低债券信用利差,而以中债资信为代表的投资者付费评级机构提供的私有信息则不会显著影响债券信用利差,均体现出单一评级模式在定价方面的弊端。因此,监管部门应继续鼓励发展投资者付费评级模式,并鼓励机构投资者发展内部评级,以充分发挥多种评级模式的交叉校验作用。

非传统货币政策与债券市场稳定——抵押品渠道的传导机制研究

本文基于中国债券市场微观结构和流动性负反馈循环理论,利用中国人民银行扩大中期借贷便利(MLF)担保品范围这一准自然实验,以及货币市场、债券市场日度数据,通过运用双重差分模型、ARIMAX模型,探讨以抵押品为基础的非传统货币政策工具在缓解债券市场风险,阻止下跌趋势蔓延方面的有效性和作用机制。本文发现,一方面,扩容政策能显著降低债券收益率,提振债券市场整体流动性和活跃度,进而遏制了负反馈机制下的“损失螺旋”;另一方面,扩容政策的实施也促进了宏观流动性向下传导,优化了债券市场流动性的总量和结构,进而遏制了负反馈机制下的“保证金螺旋”蔓延。这一结论解释了“中国化”制度背景下非传统货币政策工具稳定金融市场的内涵逻辑,增添了金融市场渠道传导的实证证据。本文的研究结论也带来一些启示:作为市场最后的流动性提供者,中国人民银行应当充分利用以抵押品为基础的非常规货币政策工具在缓解特定局部风险时的准确和高效特点,通过灵活调整质押率更好地稳定市场。

货币政策支持对公司债信用利差的影响

使用我国沪深上市公司2019—2022年债券发行月度数据,利用双重差分法探讨货币政策支持对公司债信用利差的影响。结果表明:政策实施显著收窄了债券信用利差,且实施效果在不同资产规模、发债规模、劳动密集度、资本密集度下具有一定异质性;将信用利差分解为流动性利差与违约利差后,发现其主要通过降低违约利差来收窄信用利差。进一步对观测期内具体货币政策工具操作进行短期事件研究发现,下调中期借贷便利利率与常备借贷便利利率对信用利差的收窄作用呈现国有企业与高信用评级“偏好”,而下调金融机构存款准备金率引起的收窄作用并未有明显差异。为更好地发挥货币政策对直接融资市场调控的功能,应着力完善货币政策对债券市场信用利差结构的影响框架,加快构筑市场风险协同监测机制。

绿色债券与其他金融市场间的风险溢出研究——基于TVP-VAR频域溢出模型

基于TVP-VAR频域溢出模型的风险溢出结果表明:绿色债券与其他金融市场之间的总溢出主要由短期溢出驱动;在不同的时间尺度,绿色债券和传统债券市场间存在显著的双向溢出效应,绿色债券市场与股票市场、能源市场、新能源市场、外汇市场之间的风险溢出均不显著;在重大事件冲击下,绿色债券市场与股票市场、能源市场、新能源市场间的风险溢出显著增加。

实体视角下的资本市场:本源、沿革及发展趋势

资本市场是一种重要的经济组织形式,是金融市场的重要组成部分,它提供了一个平台,可集聚资金、配置资源,并进行投融资活动。通过在资本市场上发行股票或债券等方式,实体可以获得所需的资金,同时投资者可以购买证券来参与经济活动,并分享风险与收益。实体获取资源的手段是资本市场的创新和发展,只有深刻理解资本市场的本源和底层逻辑,才能更好地解决其发展过程中遇到的问题,并从实体逻辑中找到答案。因此,文章对资本市场本源、沿革及发展趋势进行研究,对资本市场的创新和发展具有重要的现实意义。

企业ESG表现对其债券信用利差的影响及其机制

在当前企业经营环境下,研究影响企业债券信用利差的影响因素及其机制并降低信用风险是企业风险管理的重要内容。选取2018—2021年我国发债的上市企业,研究上市企业的ESG表现与其债券信用利差之间的关系及其影响机制。研究发现:良好的ESG表现能显著减小上市企业债券的信用利差;通过中介效应模型检验企业ESG表现会通过减少投资者与企业之间的信息不对称来减小债券信用利差;通过调节效应模型检验数字金融的发展会削弱企业ESG表现减小债券信用利差的能力;在市场化程度和法律制度环境建设程度高的地区,企业ESG表现与其债券信用利差之间的关系更显著,而在市场化程度和法律制度环境建设程度低的地区则不显著。研究结果有助于帮助企业从提升其ESG表现的角度减小债券信用利差提供了新的经验证据,并为学术研究和政策实践提供了不同的视角。

中国本土信用评级机构“走出去”发展研究

本土信用评级机构高水平“走出去”对于中国推动债券市场和宏观经济高质量发展、增强全球金融治理话语权等具有重要战略意义。中国本土信用评级机构“走出去”成效不强,与评级机构服务质量和资本实力不强、债券市场与人民币国际化程度偏弱、海外市场开放环境屏障、国际评级市场垄断有关。推进本土评级机构高水平“走出去”,需充分考虑其战略价值和正外部性,营造强力外部支持环境,包括从国家层面加强战略重视,加大财政、资本等资源支持,优化行业监管环境,深化债市和人民币国际化建设等;本土评级机构则应加强以评级技术为核心的综合能力建设,合理谋划“走出去”空间布局,多渠道、多形式推进业务对外渗透。

新冠疫情对我国股债市场的影响研究——基于ARIMA模型的实证分析

新冠疫情对全球金融市场产生了巨大影响,我国股票和债券市场也受到较大影响。研究新冠疫情对中国股债市场的影响,可以帮助投资者了解市场状况,规避风险,对其他地区的股债市场也具有借鉴意义。选择2019年9月9日至2020年4月1日的上证指数收盘价和国债指数收盘价数据进行分析,并以新冠疫情对股债市场造成冲击为分界点,将数据分为疫情冲击前和疫情冲击后两个时间段。具体思路为:使用疫情大规模暴发前的数据建立ARIMA模型和Holt两参数指数平滑预测模型,通过比较确定最优模型为ARIMA模型,然后使用ARIMA模型进行短期预测,将预测值和实际值进行对比分析,得出新冠疫情对股债市场收益的影响。结果表明:①在预测股票市场和债券市场收益方面,建立ARIMA模型要优于Holt两参数指数平滑法。②新冠疫情在短期内对股票市场产生负向作用,对债券市场产生正向作用,但随着时间的推移,股票市场和债券市场最终还是会趋于平衡状态。

推进我国高收益债券市场建设——基于国内高收益债券的实证分析

发展高收益债券市场是支持中小企业融资、缓和优质资产稀缺现状、优化我国金融市场风险层次结构不可或缺的策略路径。我国的高收益债券市场发展起步较晚,但近年在违约的常态化趋势下,伴随着国内高收益债券市场法规政策与基础设施的持续完善,正展现出稳步向前的发展态势。本文首先系统性回顾了成熟市场中高收益债券的定义与界定标准,厘清贴合我国实际的高收益债券定义方法;其次,系统梳理全球高收益债券市场演变历程,剖析发展我国高收益债券市场的必要性及紧迫性;而后,从技术角度出发,聚焦违约风险与回收价值这两大核心要素,利用分位数回归构建了一套高效的违约预警模型,探索并提出了适合我国高收益债的回收率评估方法;最后,基于我国高收益债券发展现状和最新监管趋势,结合海外成熟市场经验,提出了系列政策建议,为推进我国高收益债券市场高质量发展提供参考。

债券市场如何助力科技创新?——科创类债券发行现状分析与思考

债券市场是我国科技金融体系中的重要组成部分,目前已形成了双创孵化专项债券、创新创业公司债券、创新创业金融债券、科技创新公司债券以及科创票据等多种专项产品,为科技企业进行直接融资提供助力。商业银行也通过发行双创金融债、承销科创票据等方式参与债券市场支持科技创新。当前,我国债券市场支持科技创新尚有可以改善的空间,可以从高收益债券专属平台建设、完善增信机制、培育合格投资者等方面入手。

我国债券市场研究综述与展望——基于CiteSpace的可视化分析

近年来,随着债券市场打破刚兑,众多违约事件频发。学术界对债券违约的研究日趋增多,目前已形成基本研究框架,但由于违约债券市场交易量少、数据获取较难,对违约债券定价的实证研究难度大,对违约债券的市场出清带来阻碍。对此,本文基于已有的研究成果进行详细梳理,借助CiteSpace和知网自带的计量工具对国内相关学术文献数据进行可视化分析,从研究主题的发文量、聚类情况、关键词共现频次、关键词中介中心性和研究演化路径知识图谱等方面进行梳理,总结我国债券违约的研究内容和现状,探讨市场化交易的意义及未来研究趋势方向。本文旨在完善具有中国特色的债券违约后续处理机制并提出相关建议,同时为后续拓展研究提供参考,以期推动金融业更好地服务实体经济。