A Hybrid Neural Network and Box-Jenkins Models for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting plays a significant role in numerous applications,including but not limited to,industrial planning,water consumption,medical domains,exchange rates and consumer price index.The main problem is insufficient forecasting accuracy.The present study proposes a hybrid forecastingmethods to address this need.The proposed method includes three models.The first model is based on the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)statistical model;the second model is a back propagation neural network(BPNN)with adaptive slope and momentum parameters;and the thirdmodel is a hybridization between ARIMA and BPNN(ARIMA/BPNN)and artificial neural networks and ARIMA(ARIMA/ANN)to gain the benefits of linear and nonlinearmodeling.The forecasting models proposed in this study are used to predict the indices of the consumer price index(CPI),and predict the expected number of cancer patients in the Ibb Province in Yemen.Statistical standard measures used to evaluate the proposed method include(i)mean square error,(ii)mean absolute error,(iii)root mean square error,and(iv)mean absolute percentage error.Based on the computational results,the improvement rate of forecasting the CPI dataset was 5%,71%,and 4%for ARIMA/BPNN model,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNN model respectively;while the result for cancer patients’dataset was 7%,200%,and 19%for ARIMA/BPNNmodel,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNNmodel respectively.Therefore,it is obvious that the proposed method reduced the randomness degree,and the alterations affected the time series with data non-linearity.The ARIMA/ANN model outperformed each of its components when it was applied separately in terms of increasing the accuracy of forecasting and decreasing the overall errors of forecasting.

Using Box-Jenkins Models to Forecast Mobile Cellular Subscription

In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitted to the Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA) as quarterly returns by all three mobile network operators Airtel Zambia, MTN Zambia and Zamtel. The time series of annual figures for mobile cellular subscription for all mobile network operators is from 2000 to 2014 and has a total of 15 observations. Results show that the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) is an adequate model which best fits the mobile cellular subscription time series and is therefore suitable for forecasting subscription. The model predicts a gradual rise in mobile cellular subscription in the next 5 years, culminating to about 9.0% cumulative increase in 2019.

滤波辨识(10):多变量Box-Jenkins系统的滤波辅助模型递阶广义增广参数辨识

针对多变量Box-Jenkins模型,即多变量输出误差自回归滑动平均(M-OEARMA)系统,利用滤波辨识理念和辅助模型辨识思想,研究和提出了滤波辅助模型递阶广义增广随机梯度辨识方法、滤波辅助模型递阶多新息广义增广随机梯度辨识方法、滤波辅助模型递阶广义增广递推梯度辨识方法、滤波辅助模型递阶多新息广义增广递推梯度辨识方法、滤波辅助模型递阶广义增广最小二乘辨识方法、滤波辅助模型递阶多新息广义增广最小二乘辨识方法。这些滤波辅助模型递阶广义增广辨识方法可以推广到其他有色噪声干扰下的线性和非线性多变量随机系统中。

Stochastic gradient algorithm for a dual-rate Box-Jenkins model based on auxiliary model and FIR model

Based on the work in Ding and Ding(2008),we develop a modifed stochastic gradient(SG)parameter estimation algorithm for a dual-rate Box-Jenkins model by using an auxiliary model.We simplify the complex dual-rate Box-Jenkins model to two fnite impulse response(FIR)models,present an auxiliary model to estimate the missing outputs and the unknown noise variables,and compute all the unknown parameters of the system with colored noises.Simulation results indicate that the proposed method is efective.

Modelling Epidemiological Data Using Box-Jenkins Procedure

In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. We consider data of Malaria cases from Ministry of Health (Kabwe District)-Zambia for the period, 2009 to 2013 for age 1 to under 5 years. The model-building process involves three steps: tentative identification of a model from the ARIMA class, estimation of parameters in the identified model, and diagnostic checks. Results show that an appropriate model is simply an ARIMA (1, 0, 0) due to the fact that, the ACF has an exponential decay and the PACF has a spike at lag 1 which is an indication of the said model. The forecasted Malaria cases for January and February, 2014 are 220 and 265, respectively.

采用STAMP-24Model的多组织事故分析

安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。

基于改进24Model-ISM-SNA建筑工人不安全行为关联路径研究

建筑施工现场环境复杂,为有效控制不安全行为发生,基于行为安全“2-4”模型对360份具有代表性的建筑安全事故调查报告进行分析,提取出22个不安全行为的主要影响因素。利用灰色关联分析方法(GRA)改进的集成ISM-SNA模型,将不安全行为风险因素划分为表层、过渡层与深层,然后对风险因素进行可视化分析、中心度分析及凝聚子群分析,揭示了各致因因素间的关联关系和传导路径。结果表明,建筑工人不安全行为影响因素可划分成7级3阶的多级递阶结构,安全意识、现场监管、外部环境是建筑工人不安全行为的关键影响因素,同时现场监管和隐患排查到位能有效降低不安全行为的发生。

基于24Model-D-ISM的地铁站火灾疏散影响因素研究

为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素指标体系;采用算子客观赋权法(C-OWA)改进决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL),确定地铁站火灾人员疏散的重要影响因素;在此基础上,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析各个因素间的层次结构及相互作用路径,构建地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。研究结果表明:疏散引导、恐慌从众行为、人员拥挤为地铁站火灾人员疏散的关键影响因素;地铁站火灾人员疏散受表层因素、中间层因素、深层因素共同作用的影响,其中,疏散教育与培训、设施维护与检查、疏散预案等因素是根源影响因素,重视根源影响因素的改善有利于从本质上预防和控制事故的发生。

24Model与LCM原因因素定义对比研究

为探究损失致因模型(LCM)原因因素定义与事故致因“2-4”模型(24Model)存在的异同和优缺点,梳理2个模型各层面原因和结果的定义,对比定义内容及其对事故原因分析等安全实务的指导作用,并以一起瓦斯爆炸事故为例加以实证分析,获得二者分析结果之间的差异。研究结果表明:LCM是首个将管理因素纳入事故致因分析的一维事件序列模型,可明确各层面原因因素的定义和因素间的逻辑关系,但部分定义存在交叉重复的问题,并没有揭示安全工作指导思想等深层次事故致因因素;24Model作为系统性事故致因模型,对各类因素的定义均以组织为主体,描述事件、事故、安全的概念内涵,划分个体安全动作、安全能力和组织安全管理体系的类别并给出含义解析,探究组织安全文化层面的问题并以32个元素体现;2个模型的事故原因分析方法均建立在对各层级原因因素定义的基础上,并适用于模型理论体系本身。

Modelling of Indian Monsoon Rainfall Series by Univariate Box-Jenkins Type of Models

The time domain approach, i.e. Autoregressive (AR) processes, of time series analysis is applied to the monsoon rainfall series of India and its two major regions, viz. North-West India and Central India. Since the original time series shows no modelable structure due to the presence of high interannual variability, a 3-point running filter is applied before exploring and fitting appropriate stochastic models. Out of several parsimonious models fitted, AR(3) is found to be most suitable. The usefulness of this fitted model is validted on an independent datum of 18 years and some skill has been noted. These models therefore can be used for low skill higher lead time forecasts of monsoon. Further the forecasts produced through such models can be combined with other forecasts to increase the skill of monsoon forecasts.

Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

Anisotropic time-dependent behaviors of shale under direct shearing and associated empirical creep models

Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.

Development and validation of a prediction model for early screening of people at high risk for colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic.In China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been conducted.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.AIM To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.METHODS Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.The cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data.Of 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were not.The participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis.Finally,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.RESULTS Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were examined.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC.Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk factor.The area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training set ROC curve.The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.CONCLUSION The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age,BMI,WC,lifestyle,and family history exhibited high accuracy.

Geostatistical seismic inversion and 3D modelling of metric flow units,porosity and permeability in Brazilian presalt reservoir

Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation of FU away from the well into the whole reservoir grid is commonly a difficult task and using the seismic data as constraints is rarely a subject of study.This paper proposes a workflow to generate numerous possible 3D volumes of flow units,porosity and permeability below the seismic resolution limit,respecting the available seismic data at larger scales.The methodology is used in the Mero Field,a Brazilian presalt carbonate reservoir located in the Santos Basin,who presents a complex and heterogenic geological setting with different sedimentological processes and diagenetic history.We generated metric flow units using the conventional core analysis and transposed to the well log data.Then,given a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm,the seismic data and the well log statistics,we simulated acoustic impedance,decametric flow units(DFU),metric flow units(MFU),porosity and permeability volumes in the metric scale.The aim is to estimate a minimum amount of MFU able to calculate realistic scenarios porosity and permeability scenarios,without losing the seismic lateral control.In other words,every porosity and permeability volume simulated produces a synthetic seismic that match the real seismic of the area,even in the metric scale.The achieved 3D results represent a high-resolution fluid flow reservoir modelling considering the lateral control of the seismic during the process and can be directly incorporated in the dynamic characterization workflow.

耦合优化蚁群算法与P-Median model的选址模型设计

为节省城建部门对于公共体育设施的投入成本以及提高城市人民生活质量,以运动场所优化选址为例,提出一种新型设施选址模型。该模型主要基于P-Median model(最小化阻抗模型)根据需求点数量从全部候选设施选址中选择设施空间位置,让用户达到离自己最近设施距离成本总和最小的目的,对选址的基本原则和实际情况提出要求,构造目标函数用于优化后蚁群算法求解进行选址工作。优化蚁群算法实现基于Python语言模块,通过改进蚁群原始信息素,提升原有算法的收敛速度,求出目标函数最优解,可以很好地模拟对于运动场所的选址。用二者耦合进行优势互补所设计的选址模型来搜寻研究区蚁群信息素浓度残留最大的栅格像元,从而确定未被已有设施点服务半径覆盖的最佳设施点建立位置。实验结果表明,该新型选址模型相较于最小化阻抗模型与最大化覆盖模型,新增优化设施点使整体服务半径覆盖率分别高出10.42%和6.95%,适合求解较为精确且小规模空间下的选址问题。

Toward a Learnable Climate Model in the Artificial Intelligence Era

Artificial intelligence(AI)models have significantly impacted various areas of the atmospheric sciences,reshaping our approach to climate-related challenges.Amid this AI-driven transformation,the foundational role of physics in climate science has occasionally been overlooked.Our perspective suggests that the future of climate modeling involves a synergistic partnership between AI and physics,rather than an“either/or”scenario.Scrutinizing controversies around current physical inconsistencies in large AI models,we stress the critical need for detailed dynamic diagnostics and physical constraints.Furthermore,we provide illustrative examples to guide future assessments and constraints for AI models.Regarding AI integration with numerical models,we argue that offline AI parameterization schemes may fall short of achieving global optimality,emphasizing the importance of constructing online schemes.Additionally,we highlight the significance of fostering a community culture and propose the OCR(Open,Comparable,Reproducible)principles.Through a better community culture and a deep integration of physics and AI,we contend that developing a learnable climate model,balancing AI and physics,is an achievable goal.

A modified stochastic model for LS+AR hybrid method and its application in polar motion short-term prediction

Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.

Mshpy23:a user-friendly,parameterized model of magnetosheath conditions

Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnection modes under various solar wind conditions after their respective launches in 2024 and 2025.Magnetosheath conditions,namely,plasma density,velocity,and temperature,are key parameters for predicting and analyzing soft X-ray images from the LEXI and SMILE missions.We developed a userfriendly model of magnetosheath that parameterizes number density,velocity,temperature,and magnetic field by utilizing the global Magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model as well as the pre-existing gas-dynamic and analytic models.Using this parameterized magnetosheath model,scientists can easily reconstruct expected soft X-ray images and utilize them for analysis of observed images of LEXI and SMILE without simulating the complicated global magnetosphere models.First,we created an MHD-based magnetosheath model by running a total of 14 OpenGGCM global MHD simulations under 7 solar wind densities(1,5,10,15,20,25,and 30 cm)and 2 interplanetary magnetic field Bz components(±4 nT),and then parameterizing the results in new magnetosheath conditions.We compared the magnetosheath model result with THEMIS statistical data and it showed good agreement with a weighted Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.77,especially for plasma density and plasma velocity.Second,we compiled a suite of magnetosheath models incorporating previous magnetosheath models(gas-dynamic,analytic),and did two case studies to test the performance.The MHD-based model was comparable to or better than the previous models while providing self-consistency among the magnetosheath parameters.Third,we constructed a tool to calculate a soft X-ray image from any given vantage point,which can support the planning and data analysis of the aforementioned LEXI and SMILE missions.A release of the code has been uploaded to a Github repository.

Genetically modified non-human primate models for research on neurodegenerative diseases

Neurodegenerative diseases(NDs)are a group of debilitating neurological disorders that primarily affect elderly populations and include Alzheimer's disease(AD),Parkinson's disease(PD),Huntington's disease(HD),and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis(ALS).Currently,there are no therapies available that can delay,stop,or reverse the pathological progression of NDs in clinical settings.As the population ages,NDs are imposing a huge burden on public health systems and affected families.Animal models are important tools for preclinical investigations to understand disease pathogenesis and test potential treatments.While numerous rodent models of NDs have been developed to enhance our understanding of disease mechanisms,the limited success of translating findings from animal models to clinical practice suggests that there is still a need to bridge this translation gap.Old World nonhuman primates(NHPs),such as rhesus,cynomolgus,and vervet monkeys,are phylogenetically,physiologically,biochemically,and behaviorally most relevant to humans.This is particularly evident in the similarity of the structure and function of their central nervous systems,rendering such species uniquely valuable for neuroscience research.Recently,the development of several genetically modified NHP models of NDs has successfully recapitulated key pathologies and revealed novel mechanisms.This review focuses on the efficacy of NHPs in modeling NDs and the novel pathological insights gained,as well as the challenges associated with the generation of such models and the complexities involved in their subsequent analysis.

Effects of mesenchymal stem cell on dopaminergic neurons,motor and memory functions in animal models of Parkinson's disease:a systematic review and meta-analysis

Parkinson’s disease is chara cterized by the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars com pacta,and although restoring striatal dopamine levels may improve symptoms,no treatment can cure or reve rse the disease itself.Stem cell therapy has a regenerative effect and is being actively studied as a candidate for the treatment of Parkinson’s disease.Mesenchymal stem cells are considered a promising option due to fewer ethical concerns,a lower risk of immune rejection,and a lower risk of teratogenicity.We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the therapeutic effects of mesenchymal stem cells and their derivatives on motor function,memory,and preservation of dopamine rgic neurons in a Parkinson’s disease animal model.We searched bibliographic databases(PubMed/MEDLINE,Embase,CENTRAL,Scopus,and Web of Science)to identify articles and included only pee r-reviewed in vivo interve ntional animal studies published in any language through J une 28,2023.The study utilized the random-effect model to estimate the 95%confidence intervals(CI)of the standard mean differences(SMD)between the treatment and control groups.We use the systematic review center for laboratory animal expe rimentation’s risk of bias tool and the collaborative approach to meta-analysis and review of animal studies checklist for study quality assessment.A total of 33studies with data from 840 Parkinson’s disease model animals were included in the meta-analysis.Treatment with mesenchymal stem cells significantly improved motor function as assessed by the amphetamine-induced rotational test.Among the stem cell types,the bone marrow MSCs with neurotrophic factor group showed la rgest effect size(SMD[95%CI]=-6.21[-9.50 to-2.93],P=0.0001,I^(2)=0.0%).The stem cell treatment group had significantly more tyrosine hydroxylase positive dopamine rgic neurons in the striatum([95%CI]=1.04[0.59 to 1.49],P=0.0001,I^(2)=65.1%)and substantia nigra(SMD[95%CI]=1.38[0.89 to 1.87],P=0.0001,I^(2)=75.3%),indicating a protective effect on dopaminergic neurons.Subgroup analysis of the amphetamine-induced rotation test showed a significant reduction only in the intracranial-striatum route(SMD[95%CI]=-2.59[-3.25 to-1.94],P=0.0001,I^(2)=74.4%).The memory test showed significant improvement only in the intravenous route(SMD[95%CI]=4.80[1.84 to 7.76],P=0.027,I^(2)=79.6%).Mesenchymal stem cells have been shown to positively impact motor function and memory function and protect dopaminergic neurons in preclinical models of Parkinson’s disease.Further research is required to determine the optimal stem cell types,modifications,transplanted cell numbe rs,and delivery methods for these protocols.