A two-dimensional, multitvariate objective analysis scheme for simultaneous analysis of geopotential height and wind fields has been developed over Indian and adjoining region for use in numerical weather prediction. ...A two-dimensional, multitvariate objective analysis scheme for simultaneous analysis of geopotential height and wind fields has been developed over Indian and adjoining region for use in numerical weather prediction. The height-height correlations calculated using daily data of four July months (1976-1979), are used to derive the other autocorrelations and cross-correlations assuming geostropic relationship. A Gaussian function is used to model the autocorrelation function. Since the scheme is multivariate the regression coefficients (weights) are matrix.Near the equator, the geostrophic approximation relating mass and wind is decoupled in a way similar to Bergman (1979). The objective analyses were made over Indian and adjoining region for 850, 700, 500, 300 and 200 hPa levels for the period from 4 July to 8 July 1979, 12 GMT. The analyses obtained using multivariate optimum interpolation scheme depict the synoptic situations satisfactorily. The analyses were also compared with the FGGE analyses (from ECMWF) and also with the station observations by computing the root mean square (RMS) errors and the RMS errors are comparable with those obtained in other similar studies.展开更多
The commollly used objective analysis scheme(Scheme-A) for the analysis Of wind and geopotential height smoothen the divergent component of the wind which is rather important in the tropics,specifically over convectiv...The commollly used objective analysis scheme(Scheme-A) for the analysis Of wind and geopotential height smoothen the divergent component of the wind which is rather important in the tropics,specifically over convective regions.To overcome this deficiellcy, a new analysis SCheme in which divergent component is included in the statistical model of the wind forecast errors,has been proposed by Daley(1985).Following this scheme,a new set of correlahon functions of forecast errors for the indian region during monsoon season which are suitable for analysing the tropical wind are obtained.This analysis scheme(Scheme--B) as well as Scheme-A were used to make analyses for the period from 4 July to & July 1979(12 GMT) at 850,700 and 200 hpa levels over an area bounded by l.875'N to 39.375'N and 41.250'E to 108.750'E and subsequently divergent component,velocity potential are computed for both schemes.Results from both these schemes show that in the monsoon depression region the velocity potential and divergence have increased in the later case(Scheme-B).This suggests that the divergent component has been enhanced in Scheme-B and that the objechve of this study is realized to some extent.展开更多
Bratseth (1986) has proposed a successive correction scheme for numerical analysis where the solution converges towards the solution obtained by optimum interpolation. This paper presents the results of some experimen...Bratseth (1986) has proposed a successive correction scheme for numerical analysis where the solution converges towards the solution obtained by optimum interpolation. This paper presents the results of some experiments carried out over indian reston during summer monsoon period using this Bratseth’s method. The convergence of the method is investigated.展开更多
This study consists of hydrological simulations of the Muriaé river watershed with the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and available stream gauge and rain measurements between 2009 and 2013 for two...This study consists of hydrological simulations of the Muriaé river watershed with the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and available stream gauge and rain measurements between 2009 and 2013 for two subbasins, namely </span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Carangola</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> and </span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Patrocínio do Muriaé</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. The simulations were carried out with the Climate Prediction Center morphing method (CMORPH) precipitation estimates and rain gauge measurements integrated into CM- ORPH by the Statistical Objective Analysis Scheme (SOAS). TOPMODEL calibration was performed with the shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) method with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). The best overall results were obtained with CMORPH (NSE ~ 0.6) for both subbasins. The simulations with SOAS resulted in an NSE ~ 0.2. However, in an analysis of days with high- level stages, SOAS simulations resulted in a better hit rate (23%) compared to CMORPH (10%). CMORPH simulations underestimated the flows at the flood periods, which indicates the importance to use multi-sensor precipitation data. The results with TOPMODEL allow an estimate of future discharges, which allows for better planning of a flood warning system and discharge measurement schedule.展开更多
文摘A two-dimensional, multitvariate objective analysis scheme for simultaneous analysis of geopotential height and wind fields has been developed over Indian and adjoining region for use in numerical weather prediction. The height-height correlations calculated using daily data of four July months (1976-1979), are used to derive the other autocorrelations and cross-correlations assuming geostropic relationship. A Gaussian function is used to model the autocorrelation function. Since the scheme is multivariate the regression coefficients (weights) are matrix.Near the equator, the geostrophic approximation relating mass and wind is decoupled in a way similar to Bergman (1979). The objective analyses were made over Indian and adjoining region for 850, 700, 500, 300 and 200 hPa levels for the period from 4 July to 8 July 1979, 12 GMT. The analyses obtained using multivariate optimum interpolation scheme depict the synoptic situations satisfactorily. The analyses were also compared with the FGGE analyses (from ECMWF) and also with the station observations by computing the root mean square (RMS) errors and the RMS errors are comparable with those obtained in other similar studies.
文摘The commollly used objective analysis scheme(Scheme-A) for the analysis Of wind and geopotential height smoothen the divergent component of the wind which is rather important in the tropics,specifically over convective regions.To overcome this deficiellcy, a new analysis SCheme in which divergent component is included in the statistical model of the wind forecast errors,has been proposed by Daley(1985).Following this scheme,a new set of correlahon functions of forecast errors for the indian region during monsoon season which are suitable for analysing the tropical wind are obtained.This analysis scheme(Scheme--B) as well as Scheme-A were used to make analyses for the period from 4 July to & July 1979(12 GMT) at 850,700 and 200 hpa levels over an area bounded by l.875'N to 39.375'N and 41.250'E to 108.750'E and subsequently divergent component,velocity potential are computed for both schemes.Results from both these schemes show that in the monsoon depression region the velocity potential and divergence have increased in the later case(Scheme-B).This suggests that the divergent component has been enhanced in Scheme-B and that the objechve of this study is realized to some extent.
文摘Bratseth (1986) has proposed a successive correction scheme for numerical analysis where the solution converges towards the solution obtained by optimum interpolation. This paper presents the results of some experiments carried out over indian reston during summer monsoon period using this Bratseth’s method. The convergence of the method is investigated.
文摘This study consists of hydrological simulations of the Muriaé river watershed with the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and available stream gauge and rain measurements between 2009 and 2013 for two subbasins, namely </span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Carangola</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> and </span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Patrocínio do Muriaé</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. The simulations were carried out with the Climate Prediction Center morphing method (CMORPH) precipitation estimates and rain gauge measurements integrated into CM- ORPH by the Statistical Objective Analysis Scheme (SOAS). TOPMODEL calibration was performed with the shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) method with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). The best overall results were obtained with CMORPH (NSE ~ 0.6) for both subbasins. The simulations with SOAS resulted in an NSE ~ 0.2. However, in an analysis of days with high- level stages, SOAS simulations resulted in a better hit rate (23%) compared to CMORPH (10%). CMORPH simulations underestimated the flows at the flood periods, which indicates the importance to use multi-sensor precipitation data. The results with TOPMODEL allow an estimate of future discharges, which allows for better planning of a flood warning system and discharge measurement schedule.
