Strategic Impact of Brexit

Following Brexit, major changes are expected in the UK, the EU, and the relationship between the two, with far-reaching strategic effects on international politics that may develop truly unexpected aspects.Beyond the near-term challenges, the UK is likely to face new developmental opportunities in the long run. The internal power balance in the EU will undergo major changes, possibly leading to progress in diplomacy and defense but with increased internal suspicions, leading to a series of new contradictions. Regardless of its success, Brexit will long trouble the EU. A troubled UK may come to resent the EU, but it is also possible that a well-developed UK will create a development model that is different from those of the EU member states, setting an example for other members considering revaluating their relationship to the EU. The resulting instability may even change it to a free trade area. The UK is an important country, with global influence. Changes in UK-EU relations will have profound geopolitical consequences, and we can expect great changes in UK-American, European-American, UK-Russian, and European-Russian relations and larger relations between East and West. The competition and cooperation among major countries will gain complexity. Due to its close relationships with the UK and the EU, China will also be extensively and profoundly affected.

The Irish Border Issue in Brexit

After a long period of obsolescence,the Irish border issue has reemerged in the context of Brexit,and any solution will affect not only the UK’s national unity,but also the Northern Ireland peace process and UK-EU economic and trade relations.Back-and-forth negotiations brought about the Draft Withdrawal Agreement,which included the"backstop"arrangement for the Irish border.This agreement soon suffered strong opposition in the UK Parliament,while the EU refused to make any substantive concessions.Trapping Brexit into the"Britain-drag",the Irish border issue has become Brexit’s bottleneck.While the border issue carries sensitivity and complexity in itself,another even more important reason that is so significant is that it has become clear that the UK and the EU are not on the same track when it comes to interest defining and policy selection,never mind the tangled mentalities of Brexit.The Brexit dilemma,when combined with the Irish border issue,has cast a spotlight on the West’s political and social fragmentation,as well as the dysfunction of its parliamentary democracy.No matter how the withdrawal deal is settled in the future,the UK and the EU are likely to be persecuted by the Irish border issue for a long time to come.

Brexit, an End and a Start

AFTER one referendum,two general elections,changes of prime ministers,and several rounds of negotiations,the United Kingdom(U.K.)finally bade farewell to its 47-year-old EU membership on January 31,2019.It also made history as the first country to withdraw from the EU."This is not an end,but a beginning,"British Prime Minister Boris Johnson quoted the maxim from former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill when addressing the British people on the Brexit day.

Analyzing Brexit Speeches of the UK Prime Ministers: an Intertextuality Approach

Brexit has a profound effect on the UK,the EU,even the whole world.The reference of Xin Bin’s specific intertextuality framework is used as a proper approach to analyzing Brexit speeches delivered by David Cameron,Theresa May,and Boris Johnson-the predecessors and the present UK Prime Minister.Through analyzing,it is identified that the Prime Ministers share a similar attitude to the value proposition of Brexit,but have both similarities and differences in their thoughts of Brexit policies and future directions after Brexit.The research takes an integral analysis of Brexit,and hence provides a new perspective.

The Analysis of Impact of Brexit on the Post-Brexit EU Using Intervented Multivariate Time Series

The UK is the most important partner of the EU in terms of economic and other fields due to the geographical proximity.It was one of the largest economies in the EU and its per capita income is higher than the EU average,so it is a net contributor to the EU.With UKs membership of the EU ended on 31 January 2019,there are concerns that the Brexit may have a significant impact on the EU,resulting in social,economic,political,and institutional changes,etc.in EU.While the impact of Brexit on the UK has always been the subject of considerable scholarly interest in recent years,there is relatively little literature on the impact of Brexit on the EU.This paper focuses on the evaluation of the impact of Brexit on the EU economy and other relevant aspects along three dimensions:GDP,PPP,Quarterly GDP growth.Employing powerful quantitative analysis technology that includes vector autoregression model,multivariate time series model with intervention variables,and autoregression integrated moving average,this paper obtains the important and novel evidence about the potential impact of Brexit on the EU economy,pointing out that Brexit is of far-reaching significance to the EU.This analysis uses several statistical models to screen out several key influencing factors,which can be used to predict the total GDP of EU in the next five years.The results show that EU economy will react negatively to"no-deal"Brexit,and its growth rate of economy will slow down significantly in next 5 years.Finally,we put forward relevant policy suggestions on how to deal with the negative impact of Brexit on EU.

Brexit and Its Impact on the US Stock Market

This paper firstly analyzes the Brexit’s impact on the US stock market using a novel interval methodology. The interval-valued dummy variables are proposed to measure the direction and magnitudes of the changes in the inter-day trend and the intra-day volatility of S&P500 returns simultaneously. It is found that both the trend and the volatility of S&P500 returns increased before the Brexit. Besides, the Brexit negatively affected S&P500 returns’ trend in the short term after the event,while its impact on market volatility was positive, which slowly decayed across time. Furthermore, a new interesting finding is that there are both short-term momentum effects(i.e., positive autocorrelation of trends) and volatility clustering in stock markets.

“温莎框架”协议与英欧关系走向

自2021年1月脱欧过渡期结束以来,英国与欧盟在《北爱尔兰议定书》执行上龃龉不断,致使双边关系在约翰逊和特拉斯执政时期严重受困。苏纳克执政后,英国与欧盟通过积极谈判,最终达成“温莎框架”协议。该协议针对英国内部市场壁垒、北爱尔兰经济权利受损和民主赤字等问题提出了新举措。英国能够在较短时间内与欧盟就“温莎框架”协议达成共识,主要归功于苏纳克政府在谈判中展现出的妥协姿态,这一策略有效增进了英欧双方的政治互信。此外,北爱尔兰的政治与安全局势恶化以及在乌克兰危机背景下美国的积极介入,也是影响此次协议达成的重要外部因素。通过“温莎框架”协议,英欧双方的互信得到了显著提升,这对促进双方在防务、外交、金融和科学研究等多个领域的合作将产生积极影响。然而,脱欧后的英国与欧盟之间还未能恢复成熟的制度化合作关系。当前,由于海关检查设施建设的滞后、英国国内的政治分歧以及英欧监管体系的日益分化,协议中的新措施是否能够顺利实施、达到预期效果仍存疑问。因此,未来英欧关系的发展仍充满不确定性。

英国“脱欧”进程中北爱尔兰贸易问题的新进展

为解决北爱尔兰贸易问题,英国与欧盟在“脱欧”协议中特别制定了《北爱尔兰议定书》,协议虽然避免了在爱尔兰岛上设立“硬边界”,但是却冲击了北爱尔兰的经济,阻碍了英国境内的自由贸易流动,疏远了北爱尔兰的联盟派,助长了北爱尔兰的街头暴力,降低了英欧之间的信任度。英欧新达成的《温莎框架》协议为横跨贸易和政治的北爱尔兰贸易问题提供了一个简单的解决方案,兑现了英国“脱欧”的承诺,巩固了北爱尔兰过去二十五年来之不易的政治成果,为北爱尔兰和整个英国未来的可持续发展奠定了基础。所有这些,对于改善英欧关系、加强英法合作、修复英美关系也具有积极意义。

英国脱欧对不同经济体的影响研究

本文以英国脱欧这一重大国际事件为议题,回顾历史,展望未来,聚焦经济领域,深入研究英国脱欧在经济全球化中对不同经济体的影响。全文分为四个部分,第一部分介绍了英国脱欧对其自身经贸短期弊大于利、长期有着积极的影响;第二部分阐述了英国脱欧对欧盟国家在货币、金融、劳动力等方面产生的冲击;第三部分分析了英国脱欧对中国经济带来的阻碍和新的机遇;第四部分提出了对中英关系在金融领域、全球治理和科技领域开展多元化互惠互利合作的建议,以供参考。

How the inflation targeting system can deal with the economic effects of Brexit

On 23 June 2016,the citizens of the United Kingdom(UK)took part in one of the most iconic votes in modern economic history as they voted in favour of the UK leaving the European Union(EU).This has resulted in great uncertainty around the future of the economy of the UK as well as the world economy.There were obvious and immediate effects around the time of the vote,such as the decrease in business and consumer confidence,depreciation in the value of the pound which will ultimately lead to inflation,and there are also many effects which we will only see come to fruition as the Brexit(Britain exiting from the EU)scenario plays out over the coming two-to three-year horizon.This allows us to conduct a scenario analysis of the various methods that the UK may utilise to withdraw from the EU and the effects that these methods will have on the economy of the UK and these effects will come through many channels.Our analysis shows how the Bank of England can use monetary policy to limit the effects of Brexit through trying to achieve its 2%inflation target.

The Different Performance of the Stock Market Indexes of the Three Countries in Different International Events

During the period of different changes in the global situation,the stock indexes of China,the United States,and the United Kingdom all showed different trends.Overall,during the outbreak of the epidemic,they all received a huge impact,and due to the different policies and coping strategies of various countries,the follow-up performance also varies greatly.Brexit has only had a slight impact on the British domestic market in a short period time,and China and the United States have prepared for investment in the new market after Brexit,which has also caused the corresponding market index to perform better before the follow-up.Due to the differences in the main market targets and the differences in the geographical location of countries,the negative impact on the British market was more obvious during the Russia-Ukraine conflict,while the stock indexes of China and the United States were relatively stable and even showed an upward trend.It can be seen from the data analysis that the markets in different countries are affected by time differently.With the growing correlation between the markets of various countries,investors should pay more attention to the global situation and the policy orientation of different countries.Considering risk diversification while taking policy dividends helps to obtain stable returns.

“后脱欧时代”英国国际留学生教育的政策转向

在复杂多变的国际环境中,特别是“脱欧”和流行性疫情所造成国际留学市场的急剧变化,对英国国际教育产业造成了严重的影响,英国政府希望通过提升“软实力”来应对当前和未来发展面临的困境。英国政府积极寻求降低不利因素的影响,试图通过调整国际留学生教育政策实现四个转向:一是以实现“全球英国”(Global Britain)的政治目标为基础,改变传统的以经济利益为导向的国际教育产业发展模式,转向以“软实力”为导向统筹教育政策目标;二是通过地缘目标转向印太地区,开拓更大的留学生市场;三是充分发掘本土优质教育资源;四是通过优化整体服务流程来提升本国国际教育产业竞争力。英国国际留学生教育政策的一致性和国际化理念,对本国文化的自信以及对留学生权益和质量的保障对我国进一步拓展留学生市场,建设全球高等教育中心有一定的启示意义。

“脱欧”背景下英国博士生教育新趋向--2022年英国研究生教育委员会调查报告解读

博士生教育位于教育体系的顶端,对推动国家创新人才培养和提升国家综合竞争力具有不可替代的作用。文章通过对英国研究生教育委员会于2022年发布的调查报告--《英国和爱尔兰博士生教育的结构与战略》的解读,揭示“脱欧”给英国博士生教育带来诸多影响以及英国博士生教育未来发展的趋势。研究发现,英国的博士生教育经费、博士留学生的招生和培养都受到“脱欧”带来的不同程度的影响。对此,英国政府及其相关部门强调:突出研究生院在研究生教育中的作用,增强博士生培养过程中的人文关怀,深化博士生教育领域的跨部门和跨学科合作。

英国“脱欧”与欧洲一体化前景:一种新结构政治学的分析

当前欧洲一体化正处于下行时期,英国"脱欧"是欧洲一体化进程中的一次重大挫折性事件。西方传统理论流派从不同角度对欧洲一体化进程提出解释框架,但随着欧洲一体化的发展,这些理论流派的一元主义逻辑与简单化的操作标准已难以应对如今欧盟治理的复杂性。新结构政治学是一种新的分析框架,系统、过程、动力与行动者是这一分析框架的四个要素。从新结构政治学的视角来看,英国"脱欧"不仅反映出欧盟治理机制存在的不足,更是欧洲一体化进程中内外矛盾激化的产物。英国"脱欧"可能成为逆转欧洲一体化进程的历史关节点,但也提供了欧盟对其内部进行权力集中和利益整合的契机。因此,欧盟会进入一段相当长时间的自我调整期。这段调整期时间的长短,取决于欧盟各成员国国内政治的博弈。在这段调整期中,欧盟可能还会发生成员国退出的危机性事件,欧盟也可能在范围缩小的基础上逐步增加内部整合的效果。

英国脱欧的原因及对中英贸易的影响

英国脱欧公投距现在已数月有余,其背后的原因以及日后对中英贸易的影响值得研究和探讨。对英国脱欧公投前后历史发展进行梳理可以发现:实用主义哲学和疑欧传统,是英国脱欧的文化原因;欧盟每年的高额预算、欧债危机和欧洲难民危机是英国脱欧的现实原因。英国脱欧对中英贸易将产生深远影响。

英国脱欧对中英贸易的影响分析

英国公投脱欧的决定,是由英国与欧盟长久以来的政治分歧与经济发展受限等原因,以及移民负担过重这一导火索共同推动的。对英国与欧盟的贸易关系进行分析,发现英国在欧盟中占据重要的贸易地位,与欧盟进出口贸易关系密切。对英国与中国的贸易现状进行分析,发现英国与中国的贸易发展良好,但贸易结合度不高。英国脱欧后,不再享有作为欧盟成员国的优惠贸易条件,可能产生中英进出口贸易额增多、贸易规模扩大、中英贸易顺差减小以及中英贸易政策出现新格局等影响。

欧盟逆全球化思潮涌动的原因与表现

英国脱欧公投和特朗普当选美国总统是"逆全球化"思潮的产物。"逆全球化"与以资本、生产和市场在全球层面加速一体化的全球化进程背道而驰,是指重新赋权于地方和国家层面。"逆全球化"思潮产生的原因在于全球化进程导致西方产生一种新的结构性分歧,即全球化赢家与输家之间的对立。如果把全球化视为一种现代化进程,那么"现代化输家"论点总体上可以解释"逆全球化"思潮出现和涌动的原因。"现代化输家"论点是指在西方经济、社会、文化与政治持续变迁过程中,低收入、受教育程度低的群体不能适应现代化进程,他们在自身处于经济边缘,地位与声誉受到影响以及遭受社会排斥的情况下,表现出反全球化和反精英的态度。自2008年全球金融危机以来,欧盟内部社会两极化和不平等状况的加剧为"现代化输家"论点提供了现实基础。本文重点分析当前欧盟内的三个"逆全球化"现象,即欧盟内右翼民粹政党的普遍崛起、英国脱欧公投以及欧盟贸易保护主义的抬头,同时,对特朗普当选对欧盟内"逆全球化"思潮的助推作用也加以分析。

英国脱欧进程不确定性的消极影响

英国脱欧是当前欧盟面临的最为严重的危机之一。英国脱欧公投通过之后,英国内部政党就此争夺不止,纷争加剧,造成严重的政治动荡、社会撕裂,并且,英国脱欧刺激了欧洲大陆民粹主义力量的发展,对欧洲的安全稳定构成威胁。英国脱欧前景的不确定性也对英国乃至欧洲的经济都造成负面影响,构成影响欧洲经济下行的重要因素,从而构成影响欧洲社会稳定的重要因素。从表面上看,英国脱欧引起的英国内部的纷争以及民粹主义力量在欧洲的崛起、欧洲政治国家化的发展趋向和西方政党制度有很大的关系,但实际上这是西方现代民主政治发展的必然结果。西方民主政治发展使精英政治受到普遍质疑和反抗,民粹主义力量的发展必然引起欧洲政治的再国家化,从而对欧洲一体化构成严重负面影响。

英欧变局背景下的中国选择:三角构建、规则追踪与秩序助推

欧洲正面临一场巨大变局。英国脱欧与欧盟内部政治右转等因素极有可能改变国际规则,并影响地区与国际层面的秩序建构。在英欧变局中,中国不应旁观或被动接受其影响,而是需要主动把握机会应对变局中的大国关系重构、制度规则变更与国际秩序塑造等问题,并采取相应措施介入其中,以第三方相关利益者身份推动大国关系与规则秩序朝向有利于自身利益的方向发展。立足于国际体系结构、欧洲地区秩序及中国自身情况等因素,文章分析了英欧变局背景下中国构建多元的大国三角关系、追踪英欧规则谈判进程与"助推"多层次秩序重构的必要性与相关因素,并讨论了中国的可能选项与介入思路。

英国脱欧前后英镑与主要货币之间的波动性及其溢出效应研究

英国脱欧公投结果公布后,英镑兑美元汇率当天下跌幅度达到了9%,自此之后,英镑对主要货币的汇率不断下跌,同时越来越多的金融机构开始计划撤离伦敦,英镑币值稳定性面临着较大的压力,在这种背景下,通过对脱欧前后英镑与英国主要的贸易伙伴之间货币的汇率波动性进行研究,利用时间序列模型和GARCH、BEKK-GARCH模型进行分析,研究结果发现:英国脱欧前,英镑与欧元和瑞郎、人民币之间存在较强的因果关系和相互波动关系,然而在英国脱欧后,英镑与人民币之间不存在格兰杰因果关系,但是二者的联动性在加强,同时和欧元、瑞郎之间的波动溢出关系在减弱。在实证研究的基础上,针对政府、企业和投资者提出防范英镑外汇风险的相关建议。