Yunnan's biodiversity is under considerable pressure and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in this area have become increasingly fragmented through agriculture,logging,planting of economic plants,mining a...Yunnan's biodiversity is under considerable pressure and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in this area have become increasingly fragmented through agriculture,logging,planting of economic plants,mining activities and changing environment.The aims of the study are to investigate climate changeinduced changes of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in Yunnan and identify areas of current species richness centers for conservation preparation.Stacked species distribution models were created to generate ensemble forecasting of species distributions,alpha diversity and beta diversity for Yunnan's subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in both current and future climate scenarios.Under stacked species distribution models in rapid climate changes scenarios,changes of water-energy dynamics may possibly reduce beta diversity and increase alpha diversity.This point provides insight for future conservation of evergreen broad-leaved forest in Yunnan,highlighting the need to fully consider the problem of vegetation homogenization caused by transformation of water-energy dynamics.展开更多
物候现象是指示气候及自然环境变化的重要指标（Peuelas et al.,2001;Moresette et al.,2009）。自然物候记录可以提供全球环境变化最直接和最有效的证据。已有研究结果表明,受全球气候变化影响,1952—2000年地中海地区（Peuelasetal.,2...物候现象是指示气候及自然环境变化的重要指标（Peuelas et al.,2001;Moresette et al.,2009）。自然物候记录可以提供全球环境变化最直接和最有效的证据。已有研究结果表明,受全球气候变化影响,1952—2000年地中海地区（Peuelasetal.,2001）、1851—1994年匈牙利（Walkovszky,1998）、展开更多
基金Acknowledgments The authors thank Ming-Gang Zhang and Katharina Filz for suggestions about problem of multicollinearity and thank Damien Georges for suggestions about modeling.
文摘Yunnan's biodiversity is under considerable pressure and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in this area have become increasingly fragmented through agriculture,logging,planting of economic plants,mining activities and changing environment.The aims of the study are to investigate climate changeinduced changes of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in Yunnan and identify areas of current species richness centers for conservation preparation.Stacked species distribution models were created to generate ensemble forecasting of species distributions,alpha diversity and beta diversity for Yunnan's subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in both current and future climate scenarios.Under stacked species distribution models in rapid climate changes scenarios,changes of water-energy dynamics may possibly reduce beta diversity and increase alpha diversity.This point provides insight for future conservation of evergreen broad-leaved forest in Yunnan,highlighting the need to fully consider the problem of vegetation homogenization caused by transformation of water-energy dynamics.
文摘物候现象是指示气候及自然环境变化的重要指标（Peuelas et al.,2001;Moresette et al.,2009）。自然物候记录可以提供全球环境变化最直接和最有效的证据。已有研究结果表明,受全球气候变化影响,1952—2000年地中海地区（Peuelasetal.,2001）、1851—1994年匈牙利（Walkovszky,1998）、
