Reevaluating health metrics:Unraveling the limitations of disabilityadjusted life years as an indicator in disease burden assessment

In 1993,the World Bank released a global report on the efficacy of health promotion,introducing the disability-adjusted life years(DALY)as a novel indicator.The DALY,a composite metric incorporating temporal and qualitative data,is grounded in preferences regarding disability status.This review delineates the algorithm used to calculate the value of the proposed DALY synthetic indicator and elucidates key methodological challenges associated with its application.In contrast to the quality-adjusted life years approach,derived from multi-attribute utility theory,the DALY stands as an independent synthetic indicator that adopts the assumptions of the Time Trade Off utility technique to define Disability Weights.Claiming to rely on no mathematical or economic theory,DALY users appear to have exempted themselves from verifying whether this indicator meets the classical properties required of all indicators,notably content validity,reliability,specificity,and sensitivity.The DALY concept emerged primarily to facilitate comparisons of the health impacts of various diseases globally within the framework of the Global Burden of Disease initiative,leading to numerous publications in international literature.Despite widespread adoption,the DALY synthetic indicator has prompted significant methodological concerns since its inception,manifesting in inconsistent and non-reproducible results.Given the substantial diffusion of the DALY indicator and its critical role in health impact assessments,a reassessment is warranted.This reconsideration is imperative for enhancing the robustness and reliability of public health decisionmaking processes.

Burden of gallstone disease in the United States population:Prepandemic rates and trends

BACKGROUND Gallstone disease is one of the most common digestive disorders in the United States and leads to significant morbidity,mortality,and health care utilization.AIM To expand on earlier findings and investigate prepandemic rates and trends in the gallstone disease burden in the United States using national survey and claims databases.METHODS The National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey,National Inpatient Sample,Nationwide Emergency Department Sample,Nationwide Ambulatory Surgery Sample,Vital Statistics of the United States,Optum Clinformatics®Data Mart,and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Medicare 5%Sample and Medicaid files were used to estimate claims-based prevalence,medical care including cholecystectomy,and mortality with a primary or other gallstone diagnosis.Rates were age-adjusted(for national databases)and shown per 100000 population.RESULTS Gallstone disease prevalence(claims-based,2019)was 0.70%among commercial insurance enrollees,1.03%among Medicaid beneficiaries,and 2.09%among Medicare beneficiaries and rose over the previous decade.Recently,in the United States population,gallstone disease contributed to approximately 2.2 million ambulatory care visits,1.2 million emergency department visits,625000 hospital discharges,and 2000 deaths annually.Women had higher medical care rates with a gallstone disease diagnosis,but mortality rates were higher among men.Hispanics had higher ambulatory care visit and hospital discharge rates compared with Whites,but not mortality rates.Blacks had lower ambulatory care visit and mortality rates,but similar hospital discharge rates compared with whites.During the study period,ambulatory care and emergency department visit rates with a gallstone disease diagnosis rose,while hospital discharge and mortality rates declined.Among commercial insurance enrollees,rates were higher compared with national data for ambulatory care visits and hospitalizations,but lower for emergency department visits.Cholecystectomies performed in the United States included 605000 ambulatory laparoscopic,280000 inpatient laparoscopic,and 49000 inpatient open procedures annually.Among commercial insurance enrollees,rates were higher compared with national data for laparoscopic procedures.CONCLUSION The gallstone disease burden in the United States is substantial and increasing,particularly among women,Hispanics,and older adults with laparoscopic cholecystectomy as the mainstay treatment.Current practice patterns should be monitored for better health care access.

Beyond Stitches: Analysis of Disease Burden in a Bangladeshi RMG Factory

Introduction: Bangladesh has experienced remarkable growth in RMG over the past 25 years. With the knitwear industry providing more than 4 million direct jobs, providing better occupational health and safety of workers remains a challenge. Aim of the study: The aim of the study was to analyze the disease burden of a RMG factory, and to highlight occupational health risks. Methods: A cross-sectional study design was employed for this analysis. A 17-month data entry (January 2020 - May 2021) was gathered from the factory in-house clinic. The socio-demographic and clinical diagnosis entries of 8421 entries were analyzed. Result: The population of the factory workers is 5370, where 40% (2148) are female workers and 60% (3222) are male workers. The mean age of respondents is 30 years, with a SD of ±7 years. Among the chief complaints, the most common was vomiting (14%;2262) fever (14%;2247), runny nose (11%;1842), cough (9%;1465), and loose motion (8%;1364). In the diagnosis categories, gastrointestinal diseases were more predominantly diagnosed (35%;2978), followed by viral fever (21%;1772), neurological diseases (16.5%;1389) and musculoskeletal disorders (9%;768). The average cost of medicine for each respondent is BDT 36. The factory covered costs of all medication for 99% (8380) of respondents. Only 0.5% (37) was referred to a tertiary hospital for further evaluation. Conclusion: Garments workers suffer mostly from long-term occupational health hazards. Factory owners and policy makers can contribute in various ways to improving primary healthcare options for workers.

Trend Analysis of the Burden of Hypertensive Heart Disease in China from 1990 to 2021

Objective:To quantitatively analyze the burden of hypertensive heart disease(HHD)in China and provide a scientific basis for prevention and control strategies.Methods:Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database were used to assess the disease burden,deaths,years lived with disability(YLDs),and risk factors for HHD in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2021.Results:From 1990 to 2021,HHD cases in China increased from 1.5 million to 3.9 million,with an average annual growth rate of 2.83%.Prevalence rose from 127.76/100,000 to 259.00/100,000,while age-standardized prevalence decreased by 0.68%annually.HHD deaths increased from 232,478 to 320,247,with a mortality rate rise from 19.76/100,000 to 22.56/100,000,though age-standardized mortality decreased by 2.68%annually.YLDs rose from 124,386 to 301,426,with the rate increasing by 2.20%annually,while age-standardized YLDs decreased by 0.67%annually.High sodium intake and low fruit consumption were key risk factors for HHD deaths.Deaths related to low vegetable intake decreased until 2005 and then rose,while deaths from lead exposure showed a similar pattern.Conclusion:HHD cases and prevalence increased significantly,but age-standardized prevalence and mortality rates declined,reflecting the impact of an aging population and improved health interventions.The rise in YLDs highlights the long-term impact on patients’quality of life.Key risk factors included high sodium intake and low fruit consumption,emphasizing the importance of dietary improvements in HHD prevention.HHD remains a significant public health challenge in China,requiring continuous research and targeted prevention strategies.

Bridging the gap:Unveiling the crisis of physical inactivity in inflammatory bowel diseases

In this editorial we comment on the article titled“Inflammatory bowel diseases patients suffer from significant low levels and barriers to physical activity:The BE-FIT-IBD study”published in a recent issue of the World Journal of Gastroen-terology 2023;29(41):5668-5682.Inflammatory bowel diseases(IBD)are emerging as a significant global health concern as their incidence continues to rise on a global scale,with detrimental impacts on quality of life.While many advances have been made regarding the management of the disease,physical inactivity in these patients represents an underexplored issue that may hold the key for further and better understanding the ramifications of IBD.Chronic pain,fatigue,and fear of exacerbating symptoms promotes physical inactivity among IBD patients,while the lack of clear guidelines on safe exercise regimens contributes to a norm of physical inactivity.Physical activity(PA)is accepted to have a positive effect on disease outcomes and quality of life,while inactivity exacerbates comorbidities like cardiovascular disease and mental health disorders.The“BE-FIT-IBD”study,focusing on PA levels and barriers in IBD patients of Southern Italy,revealed that a significant proportion(42.9%)were physically inactive.This lack of PA is attributed to barriers such as fear of flare-ups and misconceptions about exercise exacerbating the disease.The study also highlighted the need for better communication between healthcare providers and patients regarding the benefits of PA and safe incorporation into lifestyles.Moreover,physical inactivity may also contribute to disability in IBD patients,having a great impact on employment status.Of note is the fact that IBD also comes with an important psychological burden with relevant evidence suggesting that regular PA can improve mood,reduce anxiety,and enhance mental health.The“BE-FIT-IBD”study advocated for the integration of PA into IBD management,emphasizing the bidirectional link between PA and IBD.Regular exercise can influence the course of IBD,potentially reducing symptom severity and prolonging remission periods.As such,it is mandatory that healthcare providers actively educate patients,dispel misconceptions,and tailor exercise recommendations to improve the quality of life and reduce IBD-related complications.

Burden of Cirrhosis and Other Chronic Liver Diseases Caused by Specific Etiologies in China, 1990-2016:Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Objective To estimate the burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases caused by specific etiologies in China.Methods Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016(GBD 2016)were used.We evaluated the burden by analyzing age-sex-province-specific prevalence,mortality,and disability-adjusted lifeyears(DALYs)of 33 provinces in China.Results From 1990 to 2016,prevalence cases in thousands increased by 73.7%from 6833.3(95%UI:6498.0–7180.6)to 11869.6(95%UI:11274.6–12504.7).Age-standardized mortality and DALY rates per100,000 decreased by 51.2%and 53.3%,respectively.Male and elderly people(aged≥60 years)preponderance were found for prevalence,mortality,and DALYs.The number of prevalence cases,deaths,and DALYs due to hepatitis C virus(HCV)increased by 86.6%,8.7%,and 0.9%,respectively.Also,age-standardized prevalence rates decreased in 31 provinces,but increased in Yunnan and Shandong.The Socio-demographic Index(SDI)values were negatively correlated with age-standardized mortality and DALY rates by provinces in 2016;the correlation coefficients were-0.817 and-0.828,respectively.Conclusion Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases remain a huge health burden in China,with the increase of population and the aging of population.Hepatitis B virus(HBV)remains the leading cause of the health burden in China.

Changing trends of disease burden of gastric cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions:Findings from Global Burden of Disease Study

Objective:China is one of the countries with the heaviest burden of gastric cancer(GC)in the world.Understanding the epidemiological trends and patterns of GC in China can contribute to formulating effective prevention strategies.Methods:The data on incidence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs)of GC in China from1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study(2019).The estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)was calculated to evaluate the temporal trends of disease burden of GC,and the package Nordpred in the R program was used to perform an age-period-cohort analysis to predict the numbers and rates of incidence and mortality in the next 25 years.Results:The number of incident cases of GC increased from 317.34 thousand in 1990 to 612.82 thousand in2019,while the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)of GC decreased from 37.56 per 100,000 in 1990 to 30.64 per 100,000 in 2019,with an EAPC of-0.41[95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.77,-0.06].Pronounced temporal trends in mortality and DALYs of GC were observed.In the next 25 years,the numbers of new GC cases and deaths are expected to increase to 738.79 thousand and 454.80 thousand,respectively,while the rates of incidence and deaths should steadily decrease.The deaths and DALYs attributable to smoking were different for males and females.Conclusions:In China,despite the fact that the rates of GC have decreased during the past three decades,the numbers of new GC cases and deaths increased,and will continue to increase in the next 25 years.Additional strategies are needed to reduce the burden of GC,such as screening and early detection,novel treatments,and the prevention of risk factors.

Burden and outcomes for complex perianal fistulas in Crohn's disease:Systematic review

AIM To systematically review the literature on epidemiology,disease burden, and treatment outcomes for Crohn's disease(CD) patients with complex perianal fistulas.METHODS PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane were searched for relevant articles(published 2000-November 2016) and congress abstracts(published 2011-November 2016).RESULTS Of 535 records reviewed, 62 relevant sources were identified(mostly small observational studies). The cumulative incidence of complex perianal fistulas in CD from two referral-centre studies was 12%-14%(follow-up time, 12 years in one study; not reported in the second study). Complex perianal fistulas result in greatly diminished quality of life; up to 59% of patients are at risk of faecal incontinence. Treatments include combinations of medical and surgical interventions and expanded allogeneic adipose-derived stem cells. High proportions of patients experience lack of or inadequate response to treatment(failure and relapse rates,respectively: medical, 12%-73% and 0%-41%; surgical:0%-100% and 11%.20%; combined medical/surgical:0%-80% and 0%-50%; stem cells: 29%-47% and not reported). Few studies(1 of infliximab; 3 of surgical interventions)have been conducted in treatment-refractory patients, a population with high unmet needs. Limited data exist on the clinical value of anti-tumour necrosis factor-α dose escalation in patients with complex perianal fistulas in CD.CONCLUSION Complex perianal fistulas in CD pose substantial clinical and humanistic burden. There is a need for effective treatments, especially for patients refractory to antitumour necrosis factor-α agents, as evidenced by high failure and relapse rates.

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Attributable to High Temperature in 204 Countries and Territories from 1990 to 2019

Objective This study aimed to estimate spatiotemporal variations of global heat-related cardiovascular disease(CVD)burden from 1990 to 2019.Methods Data on the burden of heat-related CVD were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.Deaths and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)were used to quantify heat-induced CVD burden.We calculated the age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)and DALY rate(ASDR)per 100,000population to compare this burden across regions.Generalized linear models were applied to evaluate estimated annual percentage changes(EAPC)for temporal trends from 1990 to 2019.The correlation between the socio-demographic index(SDI)and age-standardized rate was measured using the Spearman rank test.Results Heat-induced CVD caused approximately 90 thousand deaths worldwide in 2019.Global ASMR and ASDR of heat-related CVD in 2019 were 1.17[95%confidence interval(CI):0.13-1.98]and 25.59(95%CI:2.07-44.17)per 100,000 population,respectively.The burden was significantly increased in middle and low-SDI regions and slightly decreased in high-SDI regions from 1990 to 2019.ASMR showed an upward trend,with the most considerable increase in low-latitude countries.We observed a negative correlation between SDI and EAPC in ASMR(rs=-0.57,P<0.01)and ASDR(rs=-0.59,P<0.01)among204 countries.Conclusion Heat-attributable CVD burden substantially increased in most developing countries and tropical regions.

Symptom burden amongst patients suffering from end-stage renal disease and receiving dialysis: A literature review

Patients suffering from end-stage renal disease and receiving dialysis experience a high symptom burden,which leads to an impaired quality of life and is associated with an increased risk of future hospitalisation and mortality.However,the symptom burden amongst patients undergoing dialysis was often underrecognised by clinical staff.In this paper,related works on symptom burden amongst patients with end-stage renal disease receiving dialysis,its concepts,assessment tools,status,and influencing factors were reviewed to draw clinical staff's attention for the relief of symptom burden amongst these patients and provide a reference for further research.

Palliative care needs and symptom burden in younger and older patients with end-stage renal disease undergoing maintenance hemodialysis:A cross-sectional study

Objectives:To investigate the current situation of palliative care needs and the symptom burden in patients with end-stage renal disease(ESRD)undergoing maintenance hemodialysis(MHD),and to explore whether there are differences between younger and older patients.Methods:This cross-sectional study was conducted in the hemodialysis centers of two tertiary hospitals from November 2021 to June 2022.Participants were selected by convenience sampling.Sociodemographics,clinical characteristics,the Palliative Care Outcome Scale(POS),the Dialysis Symptom Index(DSI),and health-related quality of life(EQ-5D-3L)were used for evaluation.Descriptive statistics,between-group comparisons,and correlation analysis were used to analyze the data.Results:A total of 236 patients were enrolled,including 118 younger and 118 older patients.The total median(P25,P75)POS score was 16.0(12.0,23.0),and the score was higher in older patients(P<0.01).The mean total number of symptoms in MHD patients was 15.04±5.06,and the overall median symptom severity score was 59.0(52.0,71.0);these scores were higher in the older group(P<0.01).The most common symptom was dry mouth(91.5%),followed by itching(83.1%),and dry skin(82.2%).Additionally,palliative care needs were significantly associated with symptom burden and health-related quality of life(HRQOL).Conclusions:The results showed that patients with ESRD undergoing MHD have a significant symptom burden and moderate palliative care needs,which are more severe in older patients.Therefore,interdisciplinary teams should be formed to actively manage patients’symptoms and meet the physical,psychological,social,and spiritual needs related to palliative care to improve patients’HRQOL.

Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factor Study 2010: Its Policy Implications for China

Results of the Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factor Study 2010 （GBD 2010） were released on December 13, 2012 in London, a series of papers concerning the project have been published in the Lancet[1]. Research findings of the project have been reported in the United States, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, China[2] and Australia, and widely applied across the world. In addition, the GBD 2010 will see more countries report their project research findings and implement these findings in the near future. The GBD 2010 provides researchers, administrators and policymakers with new and critical sources for their research, teaching and policymaking.

The Relationship among Caregiver Burden, Demographic Variables, and the Clinical Characteristics of Patients with Parkinson’s Disease—A Systematic Review of Studies Using Various Caregiver Burden Instruments

Caring for a person with Parkinson’s disease (PD) extends far beyond the ordinary exchange of assistance among people in a close relationship. Caregivers must learn to cope with the patient’s increasing disability and loss of independence. The aim of this systematic review was to critically assess and summarize the evidence of the influence of the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients with PD on caregiver burden by means of a caregiver burden instrument. In order to identify articles, electronic databases and reference lists were searched using the search word “Parkinson’s disease” in combination with “caregiver” or “carer” and with “burden” or “distress” or “stress” or “strain”. Thirty one articles were deemed eligible for inclusion. The methodological quality of the studies was evaluated. No studies were excluded due to low quality. The results revealed similar associations among caregiver burden, demographic variables and patient characteristics, across different caregiver burden instruments and various clinical scales. Higher PD stage and functional disability are the non-motor characteristics that contribute the most to caregiver burden. However, when comparing the impact of patient motor and non-motor symptoms, several studies found that mental symptoms had a stronger impact on caregiver burden than motor symptoms. No association was observed between caregiver burden and patient and caregiver demographics with the exception of the sub-scale analysis of caregiver burden in various age groups. Interpreting the results of studies that employ a range of different clinical assessment scales and burden instruments makes it challenging to provide a valid summary of caregiver burden in PD. The most commonly used analysis methods contribute little information about burden variation across caregiver groups or which areas are the most burdensome for caregivers. There is a need for a more uniform use of recommended instruments and for longitudinal studies.

Natural product-based treatment potential for type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes(T2D)is a metabolic disease of impaired glucose utilization and a major cause of cardiovascular disease(CVD).The pathogenesis of both diseases shares common risk factors and mechanisms,and both are significant contributors to global morbidity and mortality.Supplements of natural products for T2D mellitus(T2DM)and CVD can be seen as a potential preventive and effective therapeutic strategy.AIM To critically evaluate the therapeutic potential of natural products in T2D and coronary artery disease(CAD).METHODS By using specific keywords,we strategically searched the PubMed database.Randomized controlled trials(RCTs)were searched as the primary focus that examined the effect of natural products on glycemic control,oxidative stress,and antioxidant levels.We focused on outcomes such as low blood glucose levels,adjustment on markers of oxidative stress and antioxidants.After screening fulllength papers,we included 9 RCTs in our review that met our inclusion criteria.RESULTS In the literature search on the database,we found that various natural products like plant secondary metabolites play a diverse role in the management of CAD.American ginseng,sesame oil and cocoa flavanols proved effective in lowering blood glucose levels and controlling blood pressure,which are key factors in managing T2DM and CVD.In diabetic patients Melissa officinalis effectively reduce inflammation and shows diabetes prevention.Both fish oil and flaxseed oil reduced insulin levels and inflammatory markers,suggesting benefits for both conditions.The lipid profile and endothelial function were enhanced by Nigella sativa oil and Terminalia chebula,which is significant for the management of cardiovascular risk factors in T2DM.Additionally Bilberry extract also showed promise for improving glycemic control in patients with T2DM.CONCLUSION The high level of antioxidant,anti-inflammatory,and anti-angiogenic properties found in natural products makes them promising therapeutic options for the management of CAD,with the potential benefit of lowering the risk of CAD.

Global and Regional Trends and Projections of Infective Endocarditis-Associated Disease Burden and Attributable Risk Factors from 1990 to 2030

Objective To forecast the future burden and its attributable risk factors of infective endocarditis(IE).Methods We analyzed the disease burden of IE and its risk factors from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database and projected the disease burden from 2020 to 2030 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.Results By 2030,the incidence of IE will increase uncontrollably on a global scale,with developed countries having the largest number of cases and developing countries experiencing the fastest growth.The affected population will be predominantly males,but the gender gap will narrow.The elderly in high-income countries will bear the greatest burden,with a gradual shift to middle-income countries.The incidence of IE in countries with middle/high-middle social-demographic indicators(SDI) will surpass that of high SDI countries.In China,the incidence rate and the number of IE will reach 18.07 per 100,000 and 451,596 in 2030,respectively.IEassociated deaths and heart failure will continue to impose a significant burden on society,the burden on women will increase and surpass that on men,and the elderly in high-SDI countries will bear the heaviest burden.High systolic blood pressure has become the primary risk factor for IE-related death.Conclusions This study provides comprehensive analyses of the disease burden and risk factors of IE worldwide over the next decade.The IE-associated incidence will increase in the future and the death and heart failure burden will not be appropriately controlled.Gender,age,regional,and country heterogeneity should be taken seriously to facilitate in making effective strategies for lowering the IE disease burden.

Global burden of inflammatory bowel disease 1990-2019:A systematic examination of the disease burden and twenty-year forecast

BACKGROUND Inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)is an idiopathic intestinal disease with various levels and trends in different countries and regions.Understanding the current burden and trends of IBD in various geographical locations is essential to establish effective strategies for prevention and treatment.We report the average annual percentage change(AAPC)and estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)in age-standardized rates(ASR)of IBD in different regions based on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)study from 1990-2019,and the relationships between IBD and the human development index(HDI)and socio-demographic index(SDI).The prevalence trends of IBD were predicted by gender from 2019-2039.AIM To comprehensively investigate IBD data,providing further insights into the management of this chronic disease.METHODS We collected the information on the incidence of IBD from the GBD study from 1990-2019 to calculate the AAPC and EAPC in ASR of IBD in different regions.The relationships between IBD,HDI,and SDI were analyzed.The Nordpred and Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict the prevalence trends of IBD by gender from 2019-2039,and the reliability of the results was validated.RESULTS North America consistently had the highest IBD ASR,while Oceania consistently had the lowest.East Asia had the fastest average annual growth in ASR(2.54%),whereas Central Europe had the fastest decline(1.38%).Countries with a low age-standardized incidence rates in 1990 showed faster growth in IBD while there was no significant correlation in 2019.Additionally,IBD increased faster in countries with a low age-standardized death rates in 1990,whereas the opposite was true in 2019.Analysis of SDI and IBD ASR showed that countries with a high SDI generally had a higher IBD ASR.Finally,the projections showed a declining trend in the incidence of IBD from 2019-2039,but a gradual increase in the number of cases.CONCLUSION As the global population increases and ages,early monitoring and prevention of IBD is important to reduce the disease burden,especially in countries with a high incidence of IBD.

Consequences of redefining Alzheimer＇s disease in terms of amyloid burden without regard to cognitive decline

Alzheimer＇s disease（AD）redefined：For the past century,AD has been defined as a disease of progressive cognitive decline paired with a burden of amyloid-β（Aβ）plaques and pathologic tau tangles in the hippocampus and forebrain.However,a recent Framework paper jointly sponsored by the National Institute on Aging and the Alzheimer＇s Association（Jack et al.,2018）proposes new classification guidelines for AD,which,if adopted,will have profoundconsequences for the future management of AD.

Tuberculosis Control Priorities Defined by Using Cost-Effectiveness and Burden of Disease

Objective To define TB control priorities using cost-effectiveness and burden of disease.Methods An assumed cohort of 2 000 cases was set up based on age-specific incidence of 794 newly registered smear-positive cases in Beijing in1994.Prognostic trees and model diagrams of infectivity with natural history and DOTS intervention were constructed based on the epidemiological parameters.Results DOTS reduced 89.19% of YLL,78.90% of YLD,and 99.98% of infectivity BOD.One DALY could be saved with 45.70% Yuan by DOTS with 3% discount.Sensitivity analysis showed that discount had effect on CER.Weight of age was insensitive to CER.The higher the DOTS coured rate,the more the cost-effectiveness.Conclusions DOTS is a good cost-effectiveness TB control strategy.Cost-effectiveness and burden of disease can be used to define TB control priorities.

Estimation of the actual disease burden of human H7N9 infection in Jiangsu of eastern China from March 2013 to September 2017

The actual incidence of human H7N9 infection is supposed to be much higher than the documented laboratoryconfirmed cases.In this study,we estimated the number of the actual H7N9 cases in Jiangsu,China using a probabilistic multiplier model.Then,disability adjusted life years(DALYs),direct and indirect economic loss caused by this disease were calculated and analyzed.Till September 2017,the estimated total number of H7N9 cases was 2952[median,90%probability range(PR):1487-22094],which was 11.8 times(5.9-88.4)as large as the reported number.The median morbidity was estimated to be 4(90%PR:2-29)per 100000 population.The total DALYs loss was 16548 years,and the total economic loss(direct and indirect)was estimated to be RMB 1044618758(US$16.7 M).The average economic loss for per case and for per year was RMB 353868(US$56440)and RMB 232137502(US$37.0 M),respectively.The actual burden of human H7N9 infections was much heavier than what was documented.Our study provided an approach to estimate actual burden of infectious diseases using laboratory-confirmation.

Hepatitis C virus infection in Argentina: Burden of chronic disease

AIM: To estimate the progression of the hepatitis C virus(HCV) epidemic and measure the burden of HCVrelated morbidity and mortality. METHODS: Age- and gender-defined cohorts were used to follow the viremic population in Argentina and estimate HCV incidence, prevalence, hepatic complications, and mortality. The relative impact of two scenarios on HCV-related outcomes was assessed:(1) increased sustained virologic response(SVR); and(2) increased SVR and treatment.RESULTS: Under scenario 1, SVR raised to 85%-95% in 2016. Compared to the base case scenario, there was a 0.3% reduction in prevalent cases and liverrelated deaths by 2030. Given low treatment rates, cases of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis decreased < 1%, in contrast to the base case in 2030. Under scenario 2, the same increases in SVR were modeled, with gradual increases in the annual diagnosed and treated populations. This scenario decreased prevalent infections 45%, liver-related deaths 55%, liver cancer cases 60%, and decompensated cirrhosis 55%, as compared to the base case by 2030. CONCLUSION: In Argentina, cases of end stage liver disease and liver-related deaths due to HCV are still growing, while its prevalence is decreasing. Increasing in SVR rates is not enough, and increasing in the number of patients diagnosed and candidates for treatment is needed to reduce the HCV disease burden. Based on this scenario, strategies to increase diagnosis and treatment uptake must be developed to reduce HCV burden in Argentina.