The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle in the Economy of Turkey

This study examines econometric relationships between bank lending and the business cycle in Turkey. Firstly, the cyclical components of the real GDP and real bank loans were determined using time series. A cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction model with quarterly data were used for period of 1987：01-2013：03. The results of cointegration analysis indicate that there is a single stable long-run equilibrium relationship between real bank loans and macroeconomic variables. The response of bank loans to GDP shocks is positive. Bank loans have pro-cyclical character in Turkey.

Asian Trade Integration and the Decoupling Debate of Business Cycles

＂Decoupling＂ refers to the divergence of business cycles among different countries, while ＂re-coupling＂ corresponds to the convergence or the synchronization of business cycles among different countries. The decoupling debate is popular in the field of economics, especially after global financial crisis. As trade integration increased among Asian countries, business cycle synchronization among these countries was expected to increase through trade transmission. The aim of this study is to discover whether there has been decoupling or convergence of business cycles through various trade channels. However, theoretically, increased trade can lead to business cycle synchronization either rising or falling. Inter-industry trade resulting in higher specification will induce less synchronized business cycles, while intra-industry trade could lead to increased business cycle synchronization. Thus, it is important to distinguish between intra- and inter-industry trade flows. Both correlation and dynamic factor models are utilized to study the evolution of global business cycle linkages. Results indicate that the world factor has become less important in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations from sub-period 1961-1984 to sub-period 1985-2007, while regional factors do not play an important role in explaining aggregate volatility, with the expectation of consumption. Overall, the explanatory power of country factors increases. Domestic consumption and domestic investment variances are more driven by country and idiosyncratic factors than by the world factor, contrary to the output growth fluctuations. Regional factors and country factors also play a more prominent role in explaining gross import fluctuations than in explaining gross exports. Results cast doubt on the strong forms of both the decoupling and the re-coupling hypothesis.

Chinese Business Cycles Identified by Coincident Indexes

In reference to the method of the Conference Board,the coincident indexes for China are constructed from a sample period between January 1990 and May 2012 and by51 chosen component indicators.The resulting coincident indexes have higher correlations with gross domestic product(GDP) growth rates than the China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center(CEMAC) coincident index over the sample period between February2005 and May 2012.The peaks and troughs of the growth rates in several indicators are identified.The total number of peaks and troughs in the resulting coincident index is the same with the CEMAC coincident index.Unfortunately,these troughs don't signify recessions in the Chinese economy because the financial system has not seen a negative growth rate over the specific sample periods.The impacts of the Southeast Asian Financial Crisis and subprime mortgage crisis on the business cycle could be dated via a smoother index from HP filtering to the coincident index.

Research on Ecological Assessment and Dynamic Optimization of Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Business Model Based on Full Life Cycle Theory

The rapid development of China’s automobile industry has brought ever-increasing impact on resources,energy and environment,the energy-saving and new energy vehicles come into being accordingly.This article firstly systematically introduces the technical route of energy-saving and new energy vehicles of China,focusing on the key bottleneck problems arising from the construction process of current assessment system of the technical route for energy-saving and new energy vehicles,establishes the energy-saving and new energy vehicle business model assessment index system afterward based on the comparative analysis on energy-saving and new energy vehicle business assessment model and the full life cycle theory,and finally makes prospects and forecasts on vital problems of system boundary,dynamic optimization,simulation system of full life cycle assessment of energy-saving and new energy vehicle.

Business valuation methods selection that based on the life cycle

Based on modem financial markets becoming more and more perfect, in company stock, bonds, represented by the investment banking has permeated all aspects of life. Business valuation is the core of value management.However, companies in different stages of development have a certain stage characteristics, and therefore from the features and characteristics of the different stages of business valuation methods and the factors that affect the value of different businesses created to start, can provide investors assess the business value of new ideas.

Regional Clustering and Synchronization of Provincial Business Fluctuations in China

In this article, we propose a novel, multilevel, dynamic factor model, to determine endogenously clustered regions for the investigation of regional clustering and synchronization of provincial business fluctuations in China. The parameter identification and model estimation was conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We then conducted an empirical study of the provincial business fluctuations in China(31 Chinese provinces are considered except Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan due to the data unavailability), which were sampled from January 2000 to December 2015. Our results indicated that these provinces could be clustered into four regions: leading, coincident, lagging, and overshooting. In comparison with traditional geographical divisions, this novel clustering into four regions enabled the regional business cycle synchronization to be more accurately captured. Within the four regional clusters it was possible to identify substantial heterogeneities among regional business cycle fluctuations, especially during the periods of the 2008 financial crisis and the ‘four-trillion economic stimulus plan'.

Emerging Trends of Outsourcing Business to Cloud Computing Services: A Perspective Study

Developments in service oriented architecture (SOA) have taken us near to the once fictional dream of forming and running an online business, such commercial activity in which most or all of its commercial roles are outsourced to online services. The novel concept of cloud computing gives a understanding of SOA in which Information Technology assets are provided as services that are extra flexible, inexpensive and striking to commercial activities. In this paper, we concisely study developments in concept of cloud computing, and debate the advantages of using cloud services for commercial activities and trade-offs that they have to consider. Further we presented a layered architecture for online business, and then we presented a conceptual architecture for complete online business working atmosphere. Moreover, we discuss the prospects and research experiments that are ahead of us in realizing the technical components of this conceptual architecture. We conclude by giving the outlook and impact of cloud services on both large and small businesses.

Enterprises＇ inventory Fluctuations Useful in Monitoring the Economic Cycle

It has been demonstrated by both domestic and international theories and empirical studies that inventory fluctuations are cyclical in nature, which makes it useful in monitoring how the economy is currently operating. Based on a survey o foyer 5,000 enterprises conducted by the People＇s Bank of China, we have attempted to compile a finished goods inventory index of the 5,000 enterprises. Through our analysis, we are able to determine that the 5,000 enterprises inventory index displays the basic features of pro-cyclicality and fits the business cycle with a lag of one quarter. Currently, the inventory index shows signs of declining after five consecutive months of increases, indicating that the expansion of enterprises＇production is temporarily slowing down.

经济周期与企业数字化转型:基于同群效应和热手效应视角

在宏观经济形势复杂多变的背景下,经济周期波动是否会对企业数字化转型产生影响具有研究意义。研究发现,企业的数字化转型呈现逆周期特征;进一步发现,企业的数字化转型存在地区同群效应和行业同群效应,且两类同群效应均会促进企业数字化转型的逆周期性;管理层对未来经济预期存在热手效应,但在此影响下企业的数字化转型仍呈现显著逆周期特征。异质性分析发现,在市场化水平高、行业竞争程度高和媒体关注度低的情况下,企业数字化转型逆周期表现更明显。

经济周期波动与菲利普斯曲线形态变异:兼论经济回升的路径选择

厘清菲利普斯曲线形态变异的本质机理对于准确把握经济运行规律和确保宏观调控精准施策具有重要意义。为此,文章全面识别了中国菲利普斯曲线在经济周期不同阶段下的形态特征,并就如何采取合意的宏观经济政策引导经济回升展开了深入探讨。研究发现:第一,经济增速放缓、通胀单边异动以及全球化向逆全球化转变是导致“产出—通胀”型菲利普斯曲线出现形态变异的核心原因;第二,中国菲利普斯曲线在经济周期不同阶段的表现为:在经济周期上升或是平稳运行阶段,斜率较为陡峭,而在经济周期下行阶段则呈现出扁平化趋向;第三,不同宏观经济政策对经济回升路径的影响存在显著差异,现阶段以价格型货币政策搭配财政政策的渐进调控方式不失为一种引导经济平稳复苏的有益尝试。面对当下产出端与通胀端的双重紧缩压力,适度地矫正“产出—通胀”权衡关系,塑造陡峭的菲利普斯曲线斜率具有重要意义,这不仅有利于引导经济沿着安全的路径回升,同时也能在最大限度上避免古典经济危机重现。

构建新发展格局视域下的营商环境治理研究

营商环境治理作为中国国家治理的重要部分,是国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要标志,也是中国式现代化在经济领域的突出表现,彰显着国家治理现代化水平。因此,要牢牢把握营商环境发展方向,坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想和党的二十大精神为指导、以中国式现代化为目标、以马克思主义中国化时代性成果和经验为基础,将营商环境的制度优势转化为国家治理效能。文章以中国式现代化作为营商环境治理的方向引领,以大国经济发展理论、新新贸易理论、马克思主义政治经济学为理论支撑,剖析了构建新发展格局视域下营商环境治理的内在机制,即大国经济理论从“人口规模巨大的现代化”出发,从人口规模多样性和市场多样性的现实角度,揭示了构建形成强大国内市场的重要意义;共同富裕、物质文明与精神文明相协调、人与自然和谐共生的中国式现代化目标,与新新贸易理论中基于企业异质性、挖掘企业潜力、关注企业参与度与社会责任感、最终实现产业整体效益的逻辑相符合;马克思主义政治经济学追求的国民经济良性循环目标,从国内国际“双循环”的角度,诠释了“和平发展道路”的政治经济学内涵。其次,文章基于三大理论基础,解析新发展格局视域下营商环境治理促进经济发展的多维动态逻辑,即基于大国经济发展理论的要素市场化配置逻辑、基于新新贸易理论的产业链供应链升级逻辑与基于马克思主义政治经济学的现代流通体系建设逻辑。最后,文章将营商环境治理的多维动态逻辑融入中国当前构建新发展格局的目标取向和战略选择中,提出构建新发展格局视域下营商环境治理的市场化改革路径、创新驱动路径和“放管服”改革路径,三条作用路径相辅相成、协同发力,以制度创新为新发展格局经济体系注入源源不断的活力。

数字孪生吴淞江工程(江苏段)建设方案探讨

数字孪生吴淞江工程以阳澄淀泖区为物理流域范围,在已有水文监测站网基础上,开展水位、流量、视频、工情等感知监测,以基础数据、监测数据、业务数据为底座,以水文-水动力-水质-水工程调度耦合模型为核心,以水利知识平台为驱动,对物理流域全要素全过程进行数字化映射与模拟,建设吴淞江工程相关业务预报、预警、预演、预案管理的“四预”业务体系,服务洪涝灾害防御、水资源管理与调配、工程全生命周期管理、生态河湖监管、智慧航运、水文化服务等业务工作,对于加快太湖流域数字孪生水网工程和智慧水利建设具有重要的指导意义。

基于BOM的民用大飞机全生命周期业务贯通方法

分析物料清单(BOM)在民用大飞机全生命周期业务活动中的关键作用。通过比较不同BOM数据结构的优势和劣势,研究民用大飞机设计、工艺、制造、服务业务下BOM之间的映射机制。在此基础上实现了民用大飞机全生命周期业务贯通,从而为突破民用大飞机全生命周期业务壁垒、促进民用飞机运营商高效运作提供了新思路。

中国金融周期与经济周期的非对称波动特征及联动关系研究

区别于传统的经济周期研究,应用马尔科夫区制转换动态双因子(MS-DBF)模型,实现了对中国金融周期与经济周期的测度、波动状态识别以及关联关系的分析。这对于同时监测中国宏观经济与金融部门的周期波动态势以及通过周期视角探究宏观金融关联关系都具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。研究发现:第一,金融周期与经济周期波动具有非对称特征,并且金融周期的波动程度小于经济周期;第二,无论是扩张还是收缩阶段,金融周期对经济周期都具有一定的先行性,但每轮循环的先行期长短不一;第三,两个周期的联合波动具有区制依赖特征,并且不同状态之间的转移概率存在非对称性;第四,由于新冠疫情冲击导致宏观经济数据异常波动,使得传统MS-AR和MS-VAR模型都无法准确地识别经济周期阶段,而MS-DBF模型依托联合转移概率矩阵能够准确地捕捉到经济周期的每一轮波动。2021年下半年以来,中国经济发展面临“三重压力”,经济周期与金融周期正处于“前者收缩、后者扩张”的联合区制状态,经济周期走势深度探底;金融周期虽然处在扩张阶段,但仍位于较低水平。这预示着,现阶段中国系统性金融风险总体可控,宏观调控仍然具有一定的政策调控空间,政府部门可以适度加大政策调控力度以实现经济平稳增长。

中国营商环境的测度、时空演变特征与优化路径研究

随着全球经济一体化和区域经济协同发展的不断加深,营商环境的优化已成为推动地区经济增长和提高区域竞争力的重要因素。基于“双循环”格局和中国式现代化的理论内涵,从市场化、法治化、国际化三个层面构建了中国营商环境评价指标体系,根据逐层纵横向拉开档次法对2005-2022年中国30个省份的营商环境进行测度,并通过Kernel核密度估计与协调度模型分析其时空演变特征与优化路径。研究发现,中国各地区营商环境的演变规律存在多元性,综合发展水平持续提升。东部地区营商环境的内部综合差异存在扩大趋势;西部地区营商环境的地区差异逐渐缩小;中部地区和东北地区营商环境的内部差异经历了多轮先增大后缩小的波浪式进程。此外,通过协调性分析发现,不同地区营商环境的短板具有异质性。整体来看,各地区营商环境的国际化水平与市场化水平、法治化水平之间的协调度普遍偏低;分地区看,中部地区的国际化与法治化平均协调度处于较低水平,且改善进展相对迟缓;东北地区和西部地区在市场化与国际化平均协调度上存在的短板是制约其整体协调度提高的主要障碍。基于上述研究结论,提出各地区应根据发展实际,关注自身营商环境的短板,找准制约营商环境发展的堵点,重视并加强营商环境的建设,以推进中国省域营商环境的整体优化与提升,助力加速构建“双循环”格局。

我国省级经济周期波动的同步性研究

省级经济周期波动研究对促进区域协同发展、维持经济的可持续发展和助力经济高质量发展具有重要意义。将实际GDP增长率视为经济周期波动,基于时变相关系数测算我国2005—2023年31个省份的经济周期波动同步性,分析其时变特征,借助时变一致度指数和FMM聚类,从周期阶段视角深入探究周期波动同步性的变动原因,并分析不同宏观经济因素对经济周期波动同步性的影响。研究发现:第一,在样本期内,我国省级经济周期波动的同步性呈现出先上升,再下降,然后再上升,最后趋于稳定的趋势变化。其中,2011年2季度至2019年4季度的经济周期波动同步性经历了初期缓慢、中期加速、后期稳定的阶段性下滑;2020年后,经济周期波动同步性快速提升,并在较高水平上保持稳定。在多个时间段,存在与其他省份经济周期波动同步性有较大差异的关键省份。产业结构异质性可能是这些差异出现的主要原因。第二,在同步性下降阶段,各省份周期阶段的时间错位程度有所增加,但形态特征差异才是下滑的主要因素。以各省份平均周期阶段形态特征为依据,通过聚类分析,除湖北因新冠疫情影响被单独划分为一类外,其余省份被划分为短周期低波动和长周期高波动两类。前者所含省份普遍有相对更强的经济韧性或更多元的产业布局,后者所含省份通常受全球经济发展态势影响较大或产业结构布局相对单一。属于同一类别的省份并无显著的地域特征。第三,实证研究表明,地理距离的拉近并不能显著提升各省份的经济周期波动同步性。放松地域限制后,属于同一周期阶段形态特征类别的省份经济周期波动同步性更高。经济规模、收入差距、产业结构相似度、物价水平差异、财政政策差异和对外贸易差异均会对经济周期波动的同步性产生影响。但在同步性的上升、下降和稳定阶段,具有显著影响的宏观因素存在一定差别。经济规模以及产业结构相似度的提升在任何阶段均会显著提高经济周期波动同步性。基于此,应坚持推动各省产业多元化发展,加强区域内周期差异化省份的协调合作,助力经济高质量发展。

数字素养对农户生产要素配置的影响

农户优化生产要素配置是推动乡村转型的重要途径。本文基于2020年中国乡村振兴综合调查(CRRS)数据,利用似不相关方法和多变量概率单位模型分析数字素养对农户生产要素配置行为的影响及机制。基准回归结果显示,数字素养推动农户进行生产要素配置,经过稳健性检验后结论仍成立。机制分析结果表明,数字素养通过降低农户生产要素交易成本,进而推动农户进行生产要素配置行为。异质性分析结果表明,数字素养对无抚养负担家庭和抚幼型家庭离农型生产要素配置有影响,对养老型和抚幼养老型家庭生产要素配置行为无影响。数字素养推动小农户进行离农型生产要素配置,推动规模农户进行经营型生产要素配置。数字素养推动粮食主产区农户进行经营型生产要素配置,推动非粮食主产区农户进行离农型生产要素配置。产出绩效分析结果表明,数字素养通过影响农户家庭生产要素配置行为提高规模户单位产出,并提高规模户农业收入和总收入,提高无抚养负担农户和抚幼型农户非农就业收入和总收入。

信贷周期、经济周期与“双支柱”政策调控

本文首先使用Hamilton滤波估算我国的信贷周期和经济周期,然后使用TVP-VAR模型探讨我国信贷周期与经济周期的双向互动机制及其内在机理,发现信贷周期与经济周期具有良性的“负反馈机制”,这很大程度上是货币政策逆周期调控的结果,而市场信心渠道是信贷周期影响经济周期的重要方式,使得信贷周期对经济周期的影响大大增加。最后,本文探讨了货币政策和宏观审慎政策交互作用对各自调控产出和调控信贷的边际效率的影响,发现货币政策在宏观审慎政策收紧时对产出和信贷的边际影响减弱了,而宏观审慎政策在货币宽松时期对产出和信贷的边际效应增强了,这意味着必须建立起“双支柱”政策的协调配合模式和效率互补机制。

智慧供应链建设能促进企业“脱虚向实”吗?

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