Short-term surveys provide precious information for economic fluctuations analysis. In short-term surveys like the business tendency survey, most of the questions are qualitative and concern the evolution of different...Short-term surveys provide precious information for economic fluctuations analysis. In short-term surveys like the business tendency survey, most of the questions are qualitative and concern the evolution of different economic factors of the business activity. They provide economic information on the present situation and short-term perspectives. Usually, the respondents have to choose between three possible evolutions： increase （improvement, favourable, level higher than the normal）, stability （normal） or decrease （unfavourable, level lower than the normal）. The balance of opinion is defined as the difference between the proportion of respondents expressing a positive opinion and the proportion expressing a negative opinion. To analyze these types of surveys, the methods are well standardized and use both the multidimensional approach and time series （scoring, dynamic factor analysis, etc.） In this paper, the authors propose a new method of calculating a robust composite indicator based on range median statistics, and on a lexicographical order relation of the individual data. A confidence interval is constructed around these statistics. The indicator＇s advantage is simplicity of calculation in comparison with the Mitchell, Smith and Weale （2004） index （MSW）, while its effectiveness seems to be of the same order. It was used on a Ukrainian dataset for the construction sector. This procedure can be applied to the surveys that contain correlated ordered qualitative answers.展开更多
The COVID-19 outbreak has shocked the world’s economies in the year of 2020.As this pandemic spreads around the globe,many experts feared that the global food supplies might start running short,especially if supply c...The COVID-19 outbreak has shocked the world’s economies in the year of 2020.As this pandemic spreads around the globe,many experts feared that the global food supplies might start running short,especially if supply chains were disrupted.COVID-19 also added to the uncertainty of the business operation.Therefore,it is critical to understand how COVID-19 pandemic affected global food supply and market.In this study,we investigate the impact of COVID-19 on agricultural export companies in China using a unique firm-level survey data.We found that although on average agricultural businesses experienced declines in the exports,exports of some agricultural products especially grain and oil held strong and even increased,implying the essential demand for staple food during the pandemic.Not surprisingly,exports of medicinal herb also increased significantly during the pandemic.However,exports of goods such as edible fungus and horticultural products sharply decreased.Our results also showed that in general,impact of COVID-19 on smaller firms was more severe than that on larger firms.The results of this study can provide useful guidance and implications for agricultural businesses and policy makers on their COVID-19 mitigation efforts to navigate this global pandemic.展开更多
文摘Short-term surveys provide precious information for economic fluctuations analysis. In short-term surveys like the business tendency survey, most of the questions are qualitative and concern the evolution of different economic factors of the business activity. They provide economic information on the present situation and short-term perspectives. Usually, the respondents have to choose between three possible evolutions： increase （improvement, favourable, level higher than the normal）, stability （normal） or decrease （unfavourable, level lower than the normal）. The balance of opinion is defined as the difference between the proportion of respondents expressing a positive opinion and the proportion expressing a negative opinion. To analyze these types of surveys, the methods are well standardized and use both the multidimensional approach and time series （scoring, dynamic factor analysis, etc.） In this paper, the authors propose a new method of calculating a robust composite indicator based on range median statistics, and on a lexicographical order relation of the individual data. A confidence interval is constructed around these statistics. The indicator＇s advantage is simplicity of calculation in comparison with the Mitchell, Smith and Weale （2004） index （MSW）, while its effectiveness seems to be of the same order. It was used on a Ukrainian dataset for the construction sector. This procedure can be applied to the surveys that contain correlated ordered qualitative answers.
基金Dr.Lin Benxi is supported by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China(Project on“Agricultural Trade Monitoring and Early Warning of Key Commodities for Fujian Province”)for this study.
文摘The COVID-19 outbreak has shocked the world’s economies in the year of 2020.As this pandemic spreads around the globe,many experts feared that the global food supplies might start running short,especially if supply chains were disrupted.COVID-19 also added to the uncertainty of the business operation.Therefore,it is critical to understand how COVID-19 pandemic affected global food supply and market.In this study,we investigate the impact of COVID-19 on agricultural export companies in China using a unique firm-level survey data.We found that although on average agricultural businesses experienced declines in the exports,exports of some agricultural products especially grain and oil held strong and even increased,implying the essential demand for staple food during the pandemic.Not surprisingly,exports of medicinal herb also increased significantly during the pandemic.However,exports of goods such as edible fungus and horticultural products sharply decreased.Our results also showed that in general,impact of COVID-19 on smaller firms was more severe than that on larger firms.The results of this study can provide useful guidance and implications for agricultural businesses and policy makers on their COVID-19 mitigation efforts to navigate this global pandemic.
