A New Safety Assessment Method Based on Belief Rule Base With Attribute Reliability

Safety assessment is one of important aspects in health management.In safety assessment for practical systems,three problems exist:lack of observation information,high system complexity and environment interference.Belief rule base with attribute reliability(BRB-r)is an expert system that provides a useful way for dealing with these three problems.In BRB-r,once the input information is unreliable,the reliability of belief rule is influenced,which further influences the accuracy of its output belief degree.On the other hand,when many system characteristics exist,the belief rule combination will explode in BRB-r,and the BRB-r based safety assessment model becomes too complicated to be applied.Thus,in this paper,to balance the complexity and accuracy of the safety assessment model,a new safety assessment model based on BRB-r with considering belief rule reliability is developed for the first time.In the developed model,a new calculation method of the belief rule reliability is proposed with considering both attribute reliability and global ignorance.Moreover,to reduce the influence of uncertainty of expert knowledge,an optimization model for the developed safety assessment model is constructed.A case study of safety assessment of liquefied natural gas(LNG)storage tank is conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the new developed model.

A New Model for Network Security Situation Assessment of the Industrial Internet

To address the problem of network security situation assessment in the Industrial Internet,this paper adopts the evidential reasoning(ER)algorithm and belief rule base(BRB)method to establish an assessment model.First,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of the Industrial Internet and selects evaluation indicators that contain not only quantitative data but also qualitative knowledge.Second,the evaluation indicators are fused with expert knowledge and the ER algorithm.According to the fusion results,a network security situation assessment model of the Industrial Internet based on the ER and BRB method is established,and the projection covariance matrix adaptive evolution strategy(P-CMA-ES)is used to optimize the model parameters.This method can not only utilize semiquantitative information effectively but also use more uncertain information and prevent the problem of combinatorial explosion.Moreover,it solves the problem of the uncertainty of expert knowledge and overcomes the problem of low modeling accuracy caused by insufficient data.Finally,a network security situation assessment case of the Industrial Internet is analyzed to verify the effectiveness and superiority of the method.The research results showthat this method has strong applicability to the network security situation assessment of complex Industrial Internet systems.It can accurately reflect the actual network security situation of Industrial Internet systems and provide safe and reliable suggestions for network administrators to take timely countermeasures,thereby improving the risk monitoring and emergency response capabilities of the Industrial Internet.

On the Danger of Threats Underestimating and the Resulting Unreliable Assessment of Building Fire Safety

The paper gives an example showing that the utilization of prescriptive rules in some situations can lead to strong underestimation of the real risks and inadequate fire safety assessment of buildings.The issue seems to be very important as the prescriptive rules in many European countries are the only allowed and acceptable by the authority’s method of building fire safety assessment.The building presented in this paper is an exemplary bakery plant consisting of several premises of a different purpose and method of use,e.g.:technical facilities,production depot,distribution and storage spaces,long-term storage cool rooms,etc.The whole building that consists of single-story technological(production and storage)part and(located on two stories)office parts was approved as a singular fire zone with a total usable area of 6280 m2.The technological area includes production facilities,storage depots of raw materials,packages and finished products,as well as cold stores and a number of auxiliary function rooms.In the second(having two stories)part of the building some social rooms,administrative areas and offices are localized.The total height of the building(at the highest point)does not exceed 10.5 m.Due to the Polish regulations the parameters determining the fire-related requirements of individual structural elements of the building(especially in terms of their fire resistance)are the surface area,the average value of the fire-load density and the presence of the risk of possible explosion.The building was designed based on the assumption that the average fire-load density does not exceed the level of 1000 MJ/m2.The analysis and calculations carried out during the exploitation phase of the building confirmed the compatibility with the assumptions adopted,but the actual volume,estimated at the level of 974 MJ/m2 proved to be very close to the limit value.Exceeding of the limit value of 1000 MJ/m2-due to provisions given in a state regulations-would automatically double the formal requirements for the resistance of the structural elements from R30 to R60.When assessing the real risk,especially in case of the large-surface-area buildings with varying ways of use of the premises,the average values of fire-load density may not properly reflect the real threat of fire.This is confirmed in the present facility,where in approximately 47%of the total area of the building the fire-load density doesn’t exceed 100 MJ/m2.Surfaces for which the fire load density exceeds 4000 MJ/m2(in extreme cases,it’s 5644 MJ/m2)represent only about 11%of the total area.It is worth mentioning that the fire-load density exceeding 4000 MJ/m2 due to the national regulations and codes of design would increase the criterion of structural resistance to R240.A completely separate issue is the fact that the oldest part of the building was completed in violation of some basic technical and construction requirements,so that the structure of this part of the building currently does not meet any criteria for fire resistance.This prompted the owner to implement some solutions that will not only lead the property to become fully consistent with the state regulations but also raise the level of security over the required standards,especially in the areas particularly vulnerable to fire.Presented case study shows that the adopted method of determining the requirements for fire resistance,especially based on the average value of fire-load density,in selected cases can lead to significant underestimations and result in incorrect assessment of a building fire safety.

Damage Assessment of Existing Transmission Structures Using ANFIS （Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference） Model

This paper introduces a new methodology for the damage assessment of existing-transmission structures using six layers, zero order Sugeno model. The model is a hybrid fuzzy-neural system that combines the power of neural networks and fuzzy systems. It is a learning expert system that finds the parameters of the fuzzy sets and fuzzy rules by exploiting approximation techniques from neural networks. The condition ratings of the structural components are determined based on visually observed deterioration-symptoms and the severity of those symptoms. A supervised learning process using training data and expert opinions is used to develop the expert system rules and determine the ratings of the structural components. For the learning from training data, the model uses a combination of least-square estimator and gradient descent method. A sequential least square algorithm is used to determine the weighting factors that minimized the errors. A test case is given to illustrate the power of the proposed fuzzy-neural system. It is concluded that the Sugeno model＇s ability to tune the parameters based on the training data makes it superior to the rules produced by an expert in the conventional fuzzy logic systems.

Applying Fuzzy Rule-Based System on FMEA to Assess the Risks on Project-Based Software Engineering Education

Project-based learning has been in widespread use in education. However, project managers are unaware of the students’ lack of experience and treat them as if they were professional staff. This paper proposes the application of a fuzzy failure mode and effects analysis model for project-based software engineering education. This method integrates the fuzzy rule-based system with learning agents. The agents construct the membership function from historical data. Data are processed by a clustering process that facilitates the construction of the membership function. It helps students who lack experience in risk assessment to develop their expertise in that skill. The paper also suggests a classification technique for a fuzzy rule-based system that can be used to judge risk based on a fuzzy inference system. The student project will thus be further enhanced with respect to risk assessment. We then discuss the design of experiments to verify the proposed model.

新时代我国行政区划的制度设计、目标指向与优化策略

新时代在完善优化行政区划制度设计过程中,坚持发展与治理并重的新理念是认识前提,加强党对行政区划工作的集中统一领导是根本保障,持续推动法治建设是关键支撑,健全论证评估机制与方法是基本路径。在目标导向方面,应重点关注三项新课题:以优化基层行政区划为主要着力点,提升超大特大城市的资源承载能力;通过优化乡镇行政区划设置,推动以县城为重要载体的新型城镇化;通过优化收缩型城市和“小县”的行政区划设置,助推区域协同高质量发展。作为完成上述目标的保障机制,要在充分发挥党的全面领导、协调各方作用基础上强化党政部门协同,在明确价值导向前提下健全论证与评估体系,系统总结我国行政区划设置的历史经验,提升调整方案的明确性,减少调整的“后遗症”。

我国法治体系建设中的立法质量评估与分析——基于2020年28省份法学专家的调研数据

从中国特色社会主义法律体系建设进入法治体系建设的新时代,立法质量成为法治建设的重要内容。从法理角度观察,我国立法质量建设不是从无到有的建设,而是提升法律规范性品质的建设,为此要构建一套符合我国法治建设实际的立法质量评估体系。基于详实的问卷调查数据,本评估体系将立法质量判断标准建立在指标得分及指标之间内在逻辑的双重基础之上,改变了以往仅凭指标简单加权平均来评估立法成效的方式,实现了立法整体发展水平和立法中各项要素发展情况的刻度化测评,从而有助于把握立法规律和现状,准确评估当前立法水平,以提升立法的规范性品质。

邮轮内装物资物流集配风险评估

为量化邮轮内装物资物流集配风险并科学配置管控资源,结合置信规则库和贝叶斯网络,用于解决具有不确定性和模糊性的风险评价信息.辨识影响邮轮内装物资物流集配的关键风险因素,多维度细化风险参数表达,基于风险参数结构及权重,建立包含置信度的规则库表示风险参数与风险状态之间的对应关系;融合模糊评价数据,利用贝叶斯推理技术,得出风险因素在风险状态上的置信度分布,引入效用函数实现概率值向精确值的转换,并得到风险因素的排序结果;通过敏感性分析验证该模型的逻辑性、适用性和准确性.结果表明:邮轮内装物资物流集配风险排序位列前三的分别为内装总包商对供应商及物流服务商监管不善、参与主体权责划分不明确、以及仓储设施不满足物资存放要求.

基于姿态与力测量的手功能自动康复评估方法

脑卒中后约70%的患者存在手部功能障碍,需要长期进行康复治疗。康复评估是制定康复治疗方案的科学依据。现有手功能评定方法需要有经验的医生指导患者完成目标任务,其评分机制具有一定的主观性,而且持续时间较长,整个评估过程不仅费力、复杂,还降低了患者的舒适度。目前仍缺乏准确的手功能自动评估系统,开发客观、定量、可靠的测量设备,实现手功能自动评估在康复医学中具有重要意义。因此,提出一种基于柔性阵列式薄膜压力传感器(Flexible Array Pressure Sensor,FAPS)和RGBD相机的自动Fugl-Meyer手功能评估系统。该系统采用Leap Motion双目视觉传感器跟踪手部/手腕的运动姿态,将FAPS分别附着在5种抓握工具上,记录5种抓握方式下手部的力信息。设计包含教学视频的上位机平台,指导患者康复评估动作。分别提取运动姿态和力信息的特征值,设计基于不同条件的逻辑规则分类方法进行每个动作的评定。进行了初步实验,结果证明该系统可用于手部运动功能的康复评估。

中欧混凝土产品生命周期评价规则差异研究

标准是为保障产品生命周期环境信息的量化活动规范而制定的基础性支撑文件。文中梳理了中欧建材产品生命周期评价标准体系架构和生命周期的阶段划分,围绕功能单位、参考使用寿命、系统边界、碳化、数据质量要求、取舍类别、环境影响类别等方面,分析了中欧混凝土产品生命周期评价规则之间的差异。

基于置信规则库的干式空心电抗器状态评估方法研究

针对电力设备故障样本少且获取困难等问题,提出了基于置信规则库的干式空心电抗器状态评估方法。通过搭建多工况下干式空心电抗器电气及温升特性试验平台,获取不同工况下电抗器有功功率和最热点温升率数据样本集,建立基于置信规则库和证据推理的电抗器状态评估模型。为了减小因专家主观经验对状态评估模型预测结果的影响,提出置信规则库优化方法,并采用证据推理算法将电抗器输入特征信息转化为输出状态等级。利用测试数据对评估模型进行测试,结果验证了基于小训练样本的干式空心电抗器状态评估方法的有效性和准确性。

中国式法治现代化视野下青少年法治教育评估体系的构建

推进青少年法治教育体系及法治教育能力现代化,既是国家治理体系和国家法治教育能力的必然内容,也是全面实现中国式法治现代化的重要组成部分。在全面推进法治现代化国家建设的进程中,青少年法治教育的基础性、独特性、先导性地位和作用日益凸显。构建和完善全面系统的青少年法治教育评估体系,对教育青少年树立法治理念和法治思维、培养法治意识和法治信仰意义重大。青少年法治教育评估体系要坚持教育性与思想性、定量与定性、普遍性与特殊性、价值性与真理性相结合的原则。通过对青少年法治教育进行主体评估、过程评估和效果评估,以期实现青少年法治教育的系统化、规范化和科学化。

基于关联规则算法构建公立医院医疗设备分类管理模型及效果分析

目的:基于关联规则算法构建公立医院医疗设备分类管理模型,分析其在医院设备管理中的应用效果。方法:基于关联规则算法中的关联规则分析Apriori算法和设备异常信息挖掘K-means算法进行设备分类管理,构建公立医院医疗设备分类管理模型用于挖掘设备状态的异常特征。选取2022—2023年北京回龙观医院临床在用的244台医疗设备,按照基于关联规则算法的公立医院医疗设备分类管理模型应用前后,将2022年1—12月的设备使用期间设定为关联规则算法设备分类管理模型应用前,2023年1—12月的设备使用期间设定为关联规则算法设备分类管理模型应用后。对比关联规则算法设备分类管理模型应用前后的设备分类管理效果评分、不同类型设备故障发生率和设备效能评分。结果:关联规则算法设备分类管理模型应用后的入库管理、使用管理、维修保养管理和报废管理评均分分别为(89.65±4.65)分、(90.25±4.36)分、(87.69±3.12)分和(90.36±3.39)分,均高于应用前,差异有统计学意义(t=17.866、14.671、18.128、19.479,P<0.05);关联规则算法设备分类管理模型应用后的医学影像诊断及辅助设备、健康监测设备、康复设备和干预及治疗设备发生故障2、3、2、3台,故障率分别为3.33%、4.69%、2.86%和6.00%,均低于应用前,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=5.925、6.117、7.937、5.316,P<0.05);关联规则算法设备分类管理模型应用后的设备整体利用效能、质量稳定效能和诊疗准确效能评均分分别为(96.39±3.69)分、(94.23±3.06)分和(95.47±4.36)分,均高于应用前,差异有统计学意义(t=16.762、17.919、11.769,P<0.05)。结论:基于关联规则算法的公立医院医疗设备分类管理模型应用可实现医院医疗设备分类管理,提高设备运行效率和管理水平,降低设备故障率。

地方法治督察的量化评估:功能异化与体系应对——以X区经验为例

自2019年全国开展法治督察工作以来,X区结合法治督察制度与量化评估方法,形成一种法治督察量化评估机制,其融合“定量分析”“定性评估”与“定期督察”的方法优势,在指标设计方式、评估主体的设定模式以及多元评估手段方面业已形成一套切实可行的试点经验。结合相关试点经验发现,地方法治督察量化评估的功能异化反映在地方政府督察的单方主导性、自上而下评估方式的局限以及评估内容的形式化倾向方面。然而,地方法治督察量化评估的真正功能,一方面,应聚焦于反映地方法治政府建设的实施问题,而非将结果作为衡量地方“法治GDP”的竞争性指标,直接同地方政府工作绩效关联;另一方面,要具备对地方法治建设的纠错功能,以便调整不同阶段的法治政府建设任务。据此,未来理应正确理解法治督察量化评估对地方法治状况的反馈作用,逐步剥离量化评估结果与业绩考核之间的利益关联。宜兼顾形式法治与实质法治之要求,保持法治督察量化评估结果的相对中立,反映法治督察的地方化元素。重视法治督察的公众参与,关注社会反馈效果。

欧盟光伏产品碳足迹管理的关键步骤及对我国的启示

围绕光伏产品碳足迹管理在应对国际贸易壁垒中的重要性,探讨国内外光伏产品碳足迹核算的现状和进展,总结了建立市场代表性组织架构、开展利益相关方咨询、依据指南制定规则等六大步骤,提出尽快发布种类规则指南、建立自主LCI数据库、制定具有代表性国际规则、推动碳足迹国际互认机制等建议,应对我国光伏产品面临的挑战,为提升我国光伏产品竞争力和应对碳足迹壁垒提供参考。

政府投资法治化:学理阐释、现实考察与完善路径

借助市场失灵、有效需求不足以及国家干预成本与效益等法经济学理论可以实现政府投资的法理证成。梳理政府投资法治化的发展路径、考察政府投资法治化的发展现状,可以发现其现实适用依然反映出诸多问题,尤其表现在立法碎片化与片面化的矛盾、执法决策“脱法”与追责机制匮乏、存在监管空白且监管模式单一、以及守法认知偏差、法治意识不足等方面。为有效落实政府投资法治化,应推动“数量扩张”到“质量提升”,“粗放式”向“集约式”的投资理念转型;同时,明确以科学立法、规范执法、强化监督以及细化责任为核心的制度设计;最后,完善政府投资法治建设的制度评估。

基于多波束探测系统的海底地形测量

详细介绍了多波束探测系统的组成、多波束探测系统的测量工作原理,总结出测量数据具有显著的大数据量、高密度、离散性等主要特点,并对数据处理流程进行阐述。采用规则网法与Delaunay三角网两种方法分别建立海底三维模型,得出Delaunay三角网建立模型速度更快,细节展示更精准。最后通过不同建模算法的坐标中误差对比可知,Delaunay三角网建模精度更高。

基于改进关联规则挖掘的电网气象风险评估

为了给电力气象灾害预报预警提供依据,论文提出了一种基于改进关联规则挖掘的电网气象风险量化评估方法。首先,分析电网历史停电事件中气象要素与停电情况的数据信息构成,构建多维电网故障数据立方体。在此基础上,为了量化评估电网气象灾害风险,提出风险系数计算方法以改进多维关联规则挖掘算法,同时,优化关联规则生成和筛选环节,以提高数据挖掘效率和关联规则的可信度。然后,基于数据挖掘所得关联规则库,对电网气象灾害风险进行量化评估。最后,以某地区电网数据进行分析,验证了论文方法的有效性。

基于动态贝叶斯网络的邻近下穿隧道深基坑施工风险分析

为了减小邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险及灾害损失,科学预防施工安全事故,提出了一种基于动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)的深基坑施工风险分析模型。首先,运用BWM(best worst method)确定准则的权重;其次,基于关联规则挖掘风险因素间的相互关系,并以此构建DBN结构模型;最后,以新建厦门北站地下一层社会连廊深基坑工程为例,对提出的方法进行有效性和适用性检验。结果表明:基坑围护结构的安全度在静态被评为“较高”和“极高”的概率分别为34.6%和36.1%,且此结果随着输入风险证据发生动态变化,运用反向推理也能迅速找出围护桩渗水风险;提出的模型能明确邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险传递过程中的关键风险点,并能进行动态风险预测以及事故后致因诊断,从而实现邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险的动态管控。所提出的优化DBN模型对工前风险评估、先验分析和风险诊断有较好的适用性和较高的准确性,可为邻近既有隧道深基坑施工过程中的安全管控提供有效的决策支持,大幅提高风险控制效率。

基于“两个细则”下火力发电厂的AGC与一次调频优化

根据《江苏电网统调发电机组运行考核办法》,以某火电厂为例。通过查询江苏电网2022年6月份调度月报,摘取该厂当月AGC与一次调频的考核数据,分析发现AGC考核多数是由于AGC调节速率和调节精度未满足。同时燃料量不足,主汽门调门开度不合理等原因导致一次调频未跟上响应速度。针对考核原因逐一将其进行相应优化。