Hydrological Modelling of the Casamance River in Its Upstream Section (Basin at Kolda Level) to Predict Its Future States as a Function of Different Stresses

Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate change on the flow of the Casamance watershed at Kolda. To this end, hydrological series are simulated and then extended using the GR2M rainfall-runoff model, with a monthly time step. Projected climate data are derived from a multi-model ensemble under scenarios SSP2-4.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m2 by 2099) and SSP5-8.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 by 2099). An analysis of the homogeneity of the rainfall data series from the Kolda station was carried out using KhronoStat software. The Casamance watershed was then delimited using ArcGIS to determine the morphometric parameters of the basin, which will be decisive for the rest of the work. Next, monthly evapotranspiration was calculated using the formula proposed by Oudin et al. This, together with rainfall and runoff, forms the input data for the model. The GR2M model was then calibrated and cross-validated using various simulations to assess its performance and robustness in the Casamance watershed. The version of the model with the calibrated parameters will make it possible to extend Casamance river flows to 2099. This simulation of future flows with GR2M shows a decrease in the flow of the Casamance at Kolda with the two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 during the rainy period, and almost zero flows during the dry season from the period 2040-2059.

Evaluation of Nutritional Composition of Two Fonio Ecotypes Grown in Casamance (Sénégal)

In order to better understand the cultural route, biochemical and nutritional composition of two ecotypes of fonio, a study was carried out in village of Tambananing located approximately 7 km from Sédhiou. The objective of studies was to determine nutritional composition of two ecotypes of fonio: the first called momo in short-cycle mandinka (75 - 90 days) and the other called medium-cycle dibong (90 - 110 days). For this, samples of two ecotypes were collected in an experimental field which was split into two equal parts, one sown with the momo ecotype and the other with the dibong ecotype. The nutritional composition (sugars, fats, proteins, minerals, ash, etc.) and the physicochemical properties (pH, humidity, water activity, color, etc.) of fonio’s were determined by appropriate physicochemical methods. The two ecotypes exhibited quite similar physicochemical properties. The levels of biochemical compounds were relatively close with protein contents of 7.05 ± 0.06 mg/100g for the momo ecotype and of 8.02 ± 0.04 mg/100g for the dibong ecotype, in carbohydrates (76.37 ± 1.2 mg/100g for momo and 78.7 ± 1.5 mg/100g for dibong) and in fat (2.92 ± 0.05 mg/100g for momo and 3.14 ± 0.004 mg/100g for dibong). Identical mineral element contents were found except for iron, an element for which the contents were 10.80 ± 0.008 mg/100g for the momo ecotype and 99.59 ± 0.005 mg/100g for the dibong ecotype. Thus, two ecotypes of fonio present a fairly interesting nutritional composition and their consumption deserves to be popularized and could contribute effectively to fight against the problems of malnutrition of certain vulnerable groups.

Perpetrators of Sexual Violence against Minors in Casamance (Senegal)

Introduction: The causes of sexual delinquency against children are multifactorial and the motivations that drive the perpetrators of sexual assault are diverse. Nowadays, there is still no consensus on a single portrait of child sex offenders and studies that focus on sex offenders are still rare in Senegal and Africa. Objectives: To determine the profile of the perpetrators and to identify the circumstances of sexual violence against minors in Casamance. Materials and Methods: A retrospective descriptive and analytical study from April 1, 2014 to October 31, 2019 was conducted. The study population was made up of perpetrators of sexual violence against minors whose legal proceedings were dealt with at the Ziguinchor High Court. The data were entered into an Excel spreadsheet and then analyzed using Epi InfoTM 7 software. Results: A total of 106 cases of sexual violence against minors were collected for 113 aggressors and 106 victims. Rape accounted for 66.03% of sexual violence. Male aggressors were 98.23%. Female victims accounted for 95.28%. The average age of the attackers was 32.52 years (±13.68). Offenders over the age of 35 committed the most rape (p = 0.043). The average age of the victims was 12.62 years (±3.42). Victims aged ten and over (p = 0.015) and who had a low level of education (p = 0.016) were more exposed to rape. The assault took place during the day (65.71%) and at the home of the aggressor (62.26%). Victims knew their attackers (84.47%). Victims were assaulted more than once by the same assailant (40.57%). Those aged 10 years and over (p = 0.0037) and who knew their attackers (p = 0.014) were more at risk of being repeatedly sexually abused. Conclusion: In Senegal, sexual violence against minors is perpetrated by young adult men, single, with little or no education and exercising low-income professions. Rape is the type of aggression preferred by perpetrators, most of whom were known to their victims. The policy to fight sexual violence against children must integrate sex education at school and community level, public awareness, monitoring of child sex offenders and possibly, their medico-psychological care.

Child Deafness in Sub-Saharan Africa: Experience of Two ENT Services in Casamance, South of Senegal

Introduction: Hearing impairment is the most common sensory deficit at birth. It is a public health problem because of the repercussions on the communication development, on the education and subsequent social integration of the child. The objective of this study was to determine the epidemiological, clinical, audiometric and etiological profiles of child deafness in Casamance, South of Senegal. Materials and Methods: This was a retrospective multicenter study, which extended a period of 7 years from January 1st, 2012 to December 31st, 2019. All children aged between 1 to 18 years old and received during their first ENT consultations at the regional and PEACE hospital in Ziguinchor were included. Results: One hundred and seventy-eight records of children were collected during this period, that is a prevalence of 1.30%. The average age was 9 years old. Conductive hearing loss was found in 68% of patients, followed by reception hearing deafness in 24%. The deafness was acquired in the majority of cases (93%) and the predominant etiology was infectious. However, the cause was unknown in 7.51% of cases. Conclusion: Child deafness is common in Casamance and is most often underdiagnosed. The acquired forms are the most common, hence the importance of early detection after a rigorous family investigation.

The First-Order Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis Methodology (1st-CASAM) for Scalar-Valued Responses: I. Theory

This work presents the first-order comprehensive adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology (1st-CASAM) for computing efficiently, exactly, and exhaustively, the first-order sensitivities of scalar-valued responses (results of interest) of coupled nonlinear physical systems characterized by imprecisely known model parameters, boundaries and interfaces between the coupled systems. The 1st-CASAM highlights the conclusion that response sensitivities to the imprecisely known domain boundaries and interfaces can arise both from the definition of the system’s response as well as from the equations, interfaces and boundary conditions defining the model and its imprecisely known domain. By enabling, in premiere, the exact computations of sensitivities to interface and boundary parameters and conditions, the 1st-CASAM enables the quantification of the effects of manufacturing tolerances on the responses of physical and engineering systems. Ongoing research will generalize the methodology presented in this work, aiming at computing exactly and efficiently higher-order response sensitivities for coupled systems involving imprecisely known interfaces, parameters, and boundaries.

Does Hearing Impairment Have an Impact on the Children’s Education in Casamance, South of Senegal?

Goal: To determine the impact of deafness on the schooling of children in Casamance and the factors that characterize these repercussions. Patients and Methods: This was a retrospective, cross-sectional and multicenter study carried out in the ENT departments of the peace and regional hospitals of Ziguinchor over a period of 7 years from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2019. It included hearing impaired children aged 1 to 18. Results: 178 hearing impaired children were collected during the study period. One hundred and forty-seven children were in school (82, 58%), the majority (85.03%) attending formal schools. Fifty-seven children had a speech disorder (32.02%). The average age of screening for deafness was 9 years. Deafness was mild in 53 patients. Thirteen patients had severe deafness. Two patients presented with cophosis. Conclusion: Our study shows that deafness does indeed have an impact on a child’s education in Casamance, but this impact is hardly taken into account.

The First-Order Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis Methodology (1^st-CASAM) for Scalar-Valued Responses: II. Illustrative Application to a Heat Transport Benchmark Model

This work illustrates the application of the 1st-CASAM to a paradigm heat transport model which admits exact closed-form solutions. The closed-form expressions obtained in this work for the sensitivities of the temperature distributions within the model to the model’s parameters, internal interfaces and external boundaries can be used to benchmark commercial and production software packages for simulating heat transport. The 1st-CASAM highlights the novel finding that response sensitivities to the imprecisely known domain boundaries and interfaces can arise both from the definition of the system’s response as well as from the equations, interfaces and boundary conditions that characterize the model and its imprecisely known domain. By enabling, in premiere, the exact computations of sensitivities to interface and boundary parameters and conditions, the 1st-CASAM enables the quantification of the effects of manufacturing tolerances on the responses of physical and engineering systems.

Characterization of Woody Vegetation in Different Land Uses in the Commune of Coubalan (Bignona Department, Senegal)

Woody vegetation provides a number of ecosystem services, including soil protection, carbon sequestration and oxygen production. Despite its important role in maintaining ecological balance, woody vegetation is currently undergoing continuous degradation due to climatic hazards and anthropogenic actions. As a result, it is essential to gather information for the sustainable and rational management of woody formations. It is with this in mind that this study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the state of woody vegetation in the different land-use types in Basse Casamance. To this end, stratified random sampling of woody vegetation was carried out in the different land-use types (fields, fallow land and forests) of the Coubalan commune. The sampling unit for fields and fallows was a 2500 m2 plot, and for forests was a 900 m2 plot. A total of 53 species, divided into 48 genera belonging to 22 families, were inventoried in the commune. Structural parameters were higher in the forest, with 1321.3 ± 635.8 individuals/ha, 13.09 ± 0.1 m2 and 79.25% ± 21.08% respectively for observed density, basal area and cover rate. As for dendrometric parameters, they are higher in the fields, with 20.4 ± 13.6 cm and 7.4 ± 3.8 m respectively for trunk diameter and woody height. Fallow land is characterized by species with low dendrometric parameters. These results provide a useful database for rational management of the various land-use types in the commune of Coubalan.

First Record of Pristomerus pallidus (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae: Cremastinae) (Kriechbaumer) Parasitizing Hellula undalis (F.) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in Crucifer Crop in Senegal

Cabbage is today an economically important crop grown in more than 90 countries around the world. Production is constantly threatened by pests including the cabbage webworm, Hellula undalis (F.) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) which just one or two larvae can cause severe damage by infesting the growing points or shoots of young plants. Hellula undalis is difficult to control by the use of chemical insecticides. The establishment of effective biological control is needed. The parasitoid species Pristomerus pallidus (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae: Cremastinae) was recorded for the first time in Senegal on larvae of Hellula undalis from cabbage fields infested with H. undalis. Laboratory observed parasitism was 7.4%. This is the first record of Pristomerus pallidus parasitizing Hellula undalis from Senegal. Furthermore, studies on the potential regulation of Hellula undalis under controlled and field conditions need to be evaluated for utilizing this parasitoid as a biocontrol agent against the cabbage webworm. .

Illustrative Application of the 2^nd-Order Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology to a Paradigm Linear Evolution/Transmission Model: Reaction-Rate Detector Response

This work continues the illustrative application of the “Second Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology” (2nd-CASAM) to a benchmark mathematical model that can simulate the evolution and/or transmission of particles in a heterogeneous medium. The model response considered in this work is a reaction-rate detector response, which provides the average interactions of particles with the respective detector or, alternatively, the time-average of the concentration of a mixture of substances in a medium. The definition of this model response includes both uncertain boundary points of the benchmark, thereby providing both direct and indirect contributions to the response sensitivities stemming from the boundaries. The exact expressions for the 1st- and 2nd-order response sensitivities to the boundary and model parameters obtained in this work can serve as stringent benchmarks for inter-comparing the performances of all (deterministic and statistical) sensitivity analysis methods.

Illustrative Application of the 2^nd-Order Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology to a Paradigm Linear Evolution/Transmission Model: Point-Detector Response

This work illustrates the application of the “Second Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology” (2nd-CASAM) to a mathematical model that can simulate the evolution and/or transmission of particles in a heterogeneous medium. The model response is the value of the model’s state function (particle concentration or particle flux) at a point in phase-space, which would simulate a pointwise measurement of the respective state function. This paradigm model admits exact closed-form expressions for all of the 1st- and 2nd-order response sensitivities to the model’s uncertain parameters and domain boundaries. These closed-form expressions can be used to verify the numerical results of production and/or commercial software, e.g., particle transport codes. Furthermore, this paradigm model comprises many uncertain parameters which have relative sensitivities of identical magnitudes. Therefore, this paradigm model could serve as a stringent benchmark for inter-comparing the performances of all deterministic and statistical sensitivity analysis methods, including the 2nd-CASAM.

Second-Order Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Computing Exactly Response Sensitivities to Uncertain Parameters and Boundaries of Linear Systems: Mathematical Framework

This work presents the “Second-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology (2nd-CASAM)” for the efficient and exact computation of 1st- and 2nd-order response sensitivities to uncertain parameters and domain boundaries of linear systems. The model’s response (i.e., model result of interest) is a generic nonlinear function of the model’s forward and adjoint state functions, and also depends on the imprecisely known boundaries and model parameters. In the practically important particular case when the response is a scalar-valued functional of the forward and adjoint state functions characterizing a model comprising N parameters, the 2nd-CASAM requires a single large-scale computation using the First-Level Adjoint Sensitivity System (1st-LASS) for obtaining all of the first-order response sensitivities, and at most N large-scale computations using the Second-Level Adjoint Sensitivity System (2nd-LASS) for obtaining exactly all of the second-order response sensitivities. In contradistinction, forward other methods would require (N2/2 + 3 N/2) large-scale computations for obtaining all of the first- and second-order sensitivities. This work also shows that constructing and solving the 2nd-LASS requires very little additional effort beyond the construction of the 1st-LASS needed for computing the first-order sensitivities. Solving the equations underlying the 1st-LASS and 2nd-LASS requires the same computational solvers as needed for solving (i.e., “inverting”) either the forward or the adjoint linear operators underlying the initial model. Therefore, the same computer software and “solvers” used for solving the original system of equations can also be used for solving the 1st-LASS and the 2nd-LASS. Since neither the 1st-LASS nor the 2nd-LASS involves any differentials of the operators underlying the original system, the 1st-LASS is designated as a “first-level” (as opposed to a “first-order”) adjoint sensitivity system, while the 2nd-LASS is designated as a “second-level” (rather than a “second-order”) adjoint sensitivity system. Mixed second-order response sensitivities involving boundary parameters may arise from all source terms of the 2nd-LASS that involve the imprecisely known boundary parameters. Notably, the 2nd-LASS encompasses an automatic, inherent, and independent “solution verification” mechanism of the correctness and accuracy of the 2nd-level adjoint functions needed for the efficient and exact computation of the second-order sensitivities.

基于CGE的民用客机产业效应变动分析

我国民用客机的自主研发涉及了众多产业,通过社会经济变化分析民用客机的产业带动效应,有助于我国自主研发客机的相关政策制定.将2017年的投入产出表重新拆分组合成民用客机社会核算矩阵,构建民用客机政策分析的可计算一般均衡模型,并对相关产业进行变动冲击.研究结果表明,降低补贴税收、提高居民收入和增加相关产业的产值都会带动我国民用客机制造与运营部门产值的增加;除了税收外,其余冲击变量对客机产业的贡献度比十年前更大.