中国经济受CO_2减排率影响的不确定性CGE模拟分析

以 State- contingent模型为基础 ,结合中国具体情况 ,采用不确定性参数 ,对中国合理的 CO2 减排率制定问题进行了模拟分析。结果表明 ,中国完全可以完成本世纪中叶的 CO2 减排任务 ,根据中国国情可以采用减排率为 0 %的政策方案。另一方面在 CO2 减排率的制定中 ,可以进行定期调整减排量的方案。

燃油税对国民经济与运输冲击的CGE模拟

为模拟燃油税费改革对国民经济与交通运输业的影响,以运输卫星账户为数据框架基础,构建了燃油-交通运输-经济的TSA-CGE模型。通过产品生产、价格传导、运输与燃油、收入与支出、贸易、社会福利、社会投资和总均衡模块,对燃油-交通运输-经济系统进行全面描述。设置燃油消费税率从5%上升到20%的燃油税费方案,模拟燃油税费方案对宏观经济与交通运输的影响。模拟结果表明:燃油税方案会促进投资、居民收入、政府储蓄的增长,但会对经济总量增长及进出口带来负面影响;燃油税费方案会带来铁路运输、城市交通总产出的增加,而导致其他方式运输产出的下降,各运输方式总体产出价格呈现上涨趋势;方案能促进国内成品油需求量的降低,提高油品利用效率。

增加粮食进口对国内粮食和关联行业价格及产量的影响——基于宏观视角的CGE模型分析

粮食安全一直是政府关注的经济问题,增加粮食进口对粮食安全有何影响?对国内粮食和相关行业价格和产量又可能产生什么影响?通过编制包含粮食部门的中国2012年SAM并建立了CGE模型,模拟了短期和长期内,增加三大主粮进口10%、50%和100%情境下的政策效果;计算了政策实施后粮食、非粮食农产品和关联部门的价格和产量的变化,分析了真实GDP、GDP平减指数、居民收入和福利水平等重要的宏观经济变量的变化。通过研究发现,在增加进口100%的情形下:(1)短期内粮食和其他农产品价格分别下跌5.16%和1.65%,产量分别下降0.82%和上升0.99%,粮食自给率下降至94.54%;(2)受影响最大的关联行业是林牧渔、食品烟酒饮料和餐饮业,价格下降伴随着产量上升;(3)受到农产品价格和粮食产量下降影响,农民要素收入会有一定程度的减少;(4)宏观上,物价水平、GDP和家庭收入都略微降低,但是政策总的福利效果为正,等价性变化增加290亿元。以上变化在长期内都有大幅度回调。总的来说,适度增加粮食进口对经济的冲击较小,不会动摇中国粮食安全。

The Impact of Climate Change on China＇s Grain Market and Food Security-- A CGE Model Approach

This paper examines the impact of climate change on China＇s grain production and food security. The research is one of the four studies on future conditions of China＇s food production system under the influence of climate change using numerical simulation methods, carried out under a national 973 project entitled ＂impacts of climate change on food systems in China and its adaptation＂. The other three studies focus on changes in cultivated land area and food production, while this study incorporates their grain yield results into a general equilibrium model to simulate future conditions of the grain market. Our simulation analysis arrives at the impact of climate change by comparing such economic variables as grain production, consumption, and GDP growth rate between a baseline scenario and two climate change scenarios. Our results are summarized as follows： （1） In 2050, the total grain production will reach 689.683 million tons--584.264 million tons of total grain consumption and 42.808 million tons of exports. Without considering losses and inventory demand, in 2050 China＇s grain supply and demand will remain well balanced, with a slight surplus expected. （2） Climate change is expected to benefit China＇s macro economy and individual sectors. In comparison with the baseline scenario of no climate change, real wage, real GDP, investment, household consumption, exports, and other macroeconomic indicators will rise under the climate change scenarios. As far as the agricultural, manufacturing, and service sectors are concerned, production, consumption, imports, and exports will each be favorably affected by climate change. （3） The favorable impact of climate change on China＇s macroeconomy and individual sectors under the high emissions scenario （A2） is stronger than that under the low emissions scenario （B2）. （4） In the grain market, climate change is expected to increase supply, reduce imports, increase supply, and demand; and supply will increase more than demand does. All in all, if taking into the fertilization effect of CO2 account, climate change is expected to strengthen China＇s grain supply and safeguard food security.

燃煤发电上网电价市场化改革的影响及影响路径分析

基于SAM方法,对煤电上网电价市场化改革进行乘数分析和结构路径影响分析,模拟煤电价格变动对各产业部门和宏观经济变量的影响。结果认为:(1)化学工业、煤炭采选业、石油和天然气开采业、建筑业、设备制造业等5个行业受煤电价格上升影响较大;(2)煤电价格提高,将导致劳动力、资本价格上升,企业生产成本上升;(3)金属冶炼制品业、化学工业、煤炭采选业、石油和天然气开采业、设备制造业等5个行业受煤电价格上升的直接路径影响最大;(4)煤电价格提高会导致三次产业产出价格上升,其中,第二产业上升幅度最大,第一产业受影响最小;(5)煤电价格上涨,会对宏观经济造成紧缩效应。

Agricultural Policy Simulation Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model

[Objective] This study aimed to examine the simulated effect of Computable General Equilibrium （CGE）-based agricultural policy simulation system. [Method] The policy simulation platform based on CGE model was constructed by integrating policy simulation, CGE model and Decision Supporting System （DSS）. The scenario analysis method was used to analyze the agricultural subsides policy simulation through empirical analysis. [Result] Farmers were the main beneficiaries of increasing agricultural production subsidies, which increased farmers＇ income and improved the export of agriculture products. The prototype system could solve the problems in actual policy simulation. [Conclusion] The results lay the foundation for the quantitative study on agricultural subsidy policy in China.

环境政策对中国经济可持续性影响分析--基于CGE模型

近20多年,中国经济持续以年均9%的增长率增长,但却是以环境的恶化为代价。解决经济发展带来的环境问题是经济可持续发展的关键。本文在绿色GDP社会核算矩阵的基础上构建CGE模型,并模拟环境政策的效果。结果表明:排污税是减排的有效途径,会对经济产生紧缩作用,对不同产业的紧缩程度不一样。污染治理补贴给经济带来积极影响,减排效果不明显,有利于排污量大的行业,不利于产业结构优化。