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基于CGE模型的我国碳税政策对能源与二氧化碳排放影响的模拟分析 被引量:11
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作者 郭正权 刘海滨 牛东晓 《煤炭工程》 北大核心 2012年第1期138-140,共3页
通过建立了一个重点突出化石能源与清洁能源部门,以及化石能源二氧化碳排放的CGE模型,分析了我国发展低碳经济中碳税政策对能源需求与二氧化碳排放的影响。分析结果显示:为了减少二氧化碳的排放而实施碳税政策,随着减排量的增加,碳税水... 通过建立了一个重点突出化石能源与清洁能源部门,以及化石能源二氧化碳排放的CGE模型,分析了我国发展低碳经济中碳税政策对能源需求与二氧化碳排放的影响。分析结果显示:为了减少二氧化碳的排放而实施碳税政策,随着减排量的增加,碳税水平逐渐提高,三种化石能源的从价碳税税率也逐渐提高,且煤炭的税率最高。随着二氧化碳减排放量的逐渐增加,煤炭、石油、天然气、火电等能源需求量都有所下降,煤炭的下降比例最大,而火电下降程度不大,低碳能源需求量基本保持不变。我国二氧化碳减排的主要任务在于煤炭能源。 展开更多
关键词 能源 二氧化碳 CGE模型 碳税
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Rebound effect and its decomposition-an analysis based on energy types in China 被引量:1
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作者 Yu Liu Meifang Zhou +1 位作者 Shenghao Feng Yi Wang 《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》 2016年第4期245-252,共8页
Rebound effect derived from energy efficiency improvement has been widely invested.However,most of studies focus on the rebound effect of the energy composite level and neither distinguish nor compare different energy... Rebound effect derived from energy efficiency improvement has been widely invested.However,most of studies focus on the rebound effect of the energy composite level and neither distinguish nor compare different energy types.We compare the differences in energy saving and energy rebound between primary and secondary energy sources,and further decompose the rebound effect into production rebound part and final demand component.To do so,we add a module for rebound into a comparative state China-CGE model.We design and test two simulation scenarios using the model.In Scenario 1,all production sectors' energy efficiency of using primary energy increases by 5%.In Scenario 2,all production sectors' energy efficiency of using secondary energy increases by 5%.The results show that Scenario 2 leads to more GDP growth and more energy saving.Our scenarios show rebound effects range between 9.6% and 27.9%,and in general are higher when energy efficiency of using primary energy sources is improved.Our decomposition analysis shows that improving energy efficiency in production sectors would stimulates energy use of final demand.Indeed,the consumption side has significant contribution to rebound in secondary energy use,especially in crude oil and gas.This study reveals that improving efficiency of using secondary energy is better than improving that of primary energy,both in terms of economic impact and energy rebound.And complementary policies that prevent energy services prices from falling too much can be adopted to reduce rebound.Controlling residential energy use could also be effective in reducing rebound,this has particular implication to economies in which residential energy consumption are far from saturation. 展开更多
关键词 Rebound effects energy efficiency energy type CGE model
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人口结构变迁背景下的中国经济增长——基于动态可计算一般均衡模型的模拟 被引量:15
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作者 黄祖辉 王鑫鑫 +1 位作者 陈志钢 陈佳骊 《浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)》 CSSCI 北大核心 2014年第1期168-183,共16页
人口老龄化和民工荒现象暗示着中国劳动力低成本的优势将消失,并会对中国未来的经济增长产生负面影响。采用可计算一般均衡模型,利用联合国最新的人口预测,模拟分析中国2010—2030年人口结构变化及其相关的人口措施产生的经济效应后发现... 人口老龄化和民工荒现象暗示着中国劳动力低成本的优势将消失,并会对中国未来的经济增长产生负面影响。采用可计算一般均衡模型,利用联合国最新的人口预测,模拟分析中国2010—2030年人口结构变化及其相关的人口措施产生的经济效应后发现,由于人口老龄化导致的劳动力人口的下降,中国经济增长呈现逐步放缓的趋势,2025—2030年中国的经济增速将下降到5.513%。而相关的人口措施可以缓解人口老龄化对经济带来的负面效应。其中,提高教育水平、促进人力资本积累对经济的拉动作用最为明显。 展开更多
关键词 老龄化 民工荒 人口结构变迁 劳动人口下降 经济增长 CGE模型 人力资本积累
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A Study of the Dynamic Mechanisms and Effects of Allocating Emissions Permits under Endogenous Growth
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作者 Tang Weiqi Wu Libo Qian Haoqi 《Social Sciences in China》 2018年第1期65-77,共13页
The allocation of carbon emissions permits is a major component of the design of carbon trading schemes. The choice of allocation mechanisms can influence the long-term growth path, which in turn affects the effective... The allocation of carbon emissions permits is a major component of the design of carbon trading schemes. The choice of allocation mechanisms can influence the long-term growth path, which in turn affects the effectiveness of the emissions reduction policy. The findings of this article indicate that while a static allocation mechanism can maximize current yields, it leads to a slowdown in output growth under endogenous economic growth. To optimize intertemporal economic output, the allocation of carbon emissions will need to be dynamically adjusted. In the absence of complete information, an output-oriented adjustment to the allocation of emissions rights in different periods can guide market trading so that it approaches a long-term optimal growth path. 展开更多
关键词 carbon trading allocation of emissions permits "learning by doing" effect cgemodel intertemporal optimization
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