基于CNN-LSTM电力消耗预测模型及系统开发

有效预测电能负荷,对提高电力负荷时间序列测量准确度及合理制定用电能管理措施具有重要意义。针对传统预测模型在电能负荷预测中无法充分挖掘时间序列数据中隐藏特征的问题,基于电能数据时间序列的趋势,融合数值信息提出一种卷积神经网络(convolutional neuralnetwork,CNN)与长期短期记忆循环神经网络(long short-term memory network,LSTM)相结合的混合多隐层CNN-LSTM电力能耗预测模型。首先,通过设定最小目标函数作为优化目标,Adam优化算法更新神经网络的权重,并对网络层和批大小进行自适应调优以确定最佳层数和批大小。其次,构建混合多隐层模型并进行隐层组合优化与讨论,确定最佳时间维度的参数,进行时间维度的特征学习进而预测下一时间序列的耗电量。然后以某公司的电力负荷数据为例进行验证,并与LSTM、CNN、RNN等模型的预测结果分析比较。结果表明上述混合多隐层模型预测准确度达98.94%,平均绝对误差(MAE)达到0.0066,均优于其他相关模型,证明以上混合预测模型在电力负荷预测精度方面具有更好的性能。基于上述理论,开发了能耗监控决策系统,实现设备状态实时监控和能耗智能预测功能,为解决传统制造业能耗需求不精确和能源库存浪费问题提供参考和指导。

Combined back-analysis method of ground stress based on refined geological modeling

A new back-analysis method of ground stress is proposed with comprehensive consideration of influence of topography, geology and nonlinear physical mechanical properties of rock on ground stress. This method based on non-uniform rational B-spline (NURBS) technology provides the means to build a refined three-dimensional finite element model with more accurate meshing under complex terrain and geological conditions. Meanwhile, this method is a back-analysis of ground stress with combination of multivariable linear regression model and neural network (ANN) model. Firstly, the regression model is used to fit approximately boundary loads. Regarding the regressed loads as mean value, some sets of boundary loads with the same interval are constructed according to the principle of orthogonal design, to calculate the corresponding ground stress at the observation positions using finite element method. The results (boundary loads and the corresponding ground stress) are added to the samples for ANN training. And on this basis, an ANN model is established to implement higher precise back-analysis of initial ground stress. A practical application case shows that the relative error between the inversed ground stress and observed value is mostly less than 10 %, which can meet the need of engineering design and construction requirements.

Research on Hydrological Time Series Prediction Based on Combined Model

Water level prediction of river runoff is an important part of hydrological forecasting.The change of water level not only has the trend and seasonal characteristics,but also contains the noise factors.And the water level prediction ability of a single model is limited.Since the traditional ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)model is not accurate enough to predict nonlinear time series,and the WNN(Wavelet Neural Network)model requires a large training set,we proposed a new combined neural network prediction model which combines the WNN model with the ARIMA model on the basis of wavelet decomposition.The combined model fit the wavelet transform sequences whose frequency are high with the WNN,and the scale transform sequence which has low frequency is fitted by the ARIMA model,and then the prediction results of the above are reconstructed by wavelet transform.The daily average water level data of the Liuhe hydrological station in the Chu River Basin of Nanjing are used to forecast the average water level of one day ahead.The combined model is compared with other single models with MATLAB,and the experimental results show that the accuracy of the combined model is improved by 7%compared with the traditional wavelet network under the appropriate wavelet decomposition function and the combined model parameters.

Combined Prediction for Vehicle Speed with Fixed Route

Achieving accurate speed prediction provides the most critical support parameter for high-level energy management of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.Nowadays,people often drive a vehicle on fixed routes in their daily travels and accurate speed predictions of these routes are possible with random prediction and machine learning,but the prediction accuracy still needs to be improved.The prediction accuracy of traditional prediction algorithms is difficult to further improve after reaching a certain accuracy;problems,such as over fitting,occur in the process of improving prediction accuracy.The combined prediction model proposed in this paper can abandon the transitional dependence on a single prediction.By combining the two prediction algorithms,the fusion of prediction performance is achieved,the limit of the single prediction performance is crossed,and the goal of improving vehicle speed prediction performance is achieved.In this paper,an extraction method suitable for fixed route vehicle speed is designed.The application of Markov and back propagation(BP)neural network in predictions is introduced.Three new combined prediction methods,all named Markov and BP Neural Network(MBNN)combined prediction algorithm,are proposed,which make full use of the advantages of Markov and BP neural network algorithms.Finally,the comparison among the prediction methods has been carried out.The results show that the three MBNN models have improved by about 19%,28%,and 29%compared with the Markov prediction model,which has better performance in the single prediction models.Overall,the MBNN combined prediction models can improve the prediction accuracy by 25.3%on average,which provides important support for the possible optimization of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle energy consumption.

基于CNN-LSTM组合模型的碳价预测方法

对碳价波动的特征进行分析,说明碳价预测的意义;然后,基于卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network,CNN)与长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory, LSTM)提出一种CNN-LSTM组合模型的碳价预测方法,充分考虑碳价的时序特性,通过改善相关模型,从时序数据中提取特征的能力从而提高预测准确性;最后,通过欧洲能源交易所及我国广州碳市场的碳价实例验证,将CNN-LSTM模型的预测结果与其他常用预测模型对比,结果表明CNN-LSTM模型在碳价预测中具有更高的预测准确性。

Artificial neural network-based repair and maintenance cost estimation model for rice combine harvesters

This research proposes an artificial neural network(ANN)-based repair and maintenance(R&M)cost estimation model for agricultural machinery.The proposed ANN model can achieve high estimation accuracy with small data requirement.In the study,the proposed ANN model is implemented to estimate the R&M costs using a sample of locally-made rice combine harvesters.The model inputs are geographical regions,harvest area,and curve fitting coefficients related to historical cost data;and the ANN output is the estimated R&M cost.Multilayer feed-forward is adopted as the processing algorithm and Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation learning as the training algorithm.The R&M costs are estimated using the ANN-based model,and results are compared with those of conventional mathematical estimation model.The results reveal that the percentage error between the conventional and ANN-based estimation models is below 1%,indicating the proposed ANN model’s high predictive accuracy.The proposed ANN-based model is useful for setting the service rates of agricultural machinery,given the significance of R&M cost in profitability.The novelty of this research lies in the use of curve-fitting coefficients in the ANN-based estimation model to improve estimation accuracy.Besides,the proposed ANN model could be further developed into web-based applications using a programming language to enable ease of use and greater user accessibility.Moreover,with minor modifications,the ANN estimation model is also applicable to other geographical areas and tractors or combine harvesters of different countries of origin.

Forecasting Alzheimer’s Disease Using Combination Model Based on Machine Learning

As the acceleration of aged population tendency, building models to forecast Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) is essential. In this article, we surveyed 1157 interviewees. By analyzing the results using three machine learning methods—BP neural network, SVM and random forest, we can derive the accuracy of them in forecasting AD, so that we can compare the methods in solving AD prediction. Among them, random forest is the most accurate method. Moreover, to combine the advantages of the methods, we build a new combination forecasting model based on the three machine learning models, which is proved more accurate than the models singly. At last, we give the conclusion of the connection between life style and AD, and provide several suggestions for elderly people to help them prevent AD.

白条猪价格预测模型构建

【目的】增强农产品价格预测准确度,为农产品价格的有效预测提供参考。【方法】以河南省白条猪每周平均批发价格为研究对象,提出一种基于序列分解、主成分分析和神经网络(CEEMDAN-PCA-CNN-LSTM)的白条猪价格预测方法。首先,使用自适应白噪声完全集合模态分解方法(CEEMDAN)对白条猪价格序列进行分解;其次,选用皮尔逊相关系数筛选影响价格波动的相关因素;再次,利用主成分分析(PCA)对影响因素及分解得到的子序列降维处理并作为原始价格序列的特征值,并行输入到作为编码器的卷积神经网络(CNN)中进行特征提取;最后,引入长短期记忆网络(LSTM)作为解码器输出得到预测结果。将该方法应用于河南省白条猪每周平均价格数据,与LSTM、门控循环单元(GRU)、CNN、基于卷积的长短期记忆网络(ConvLSTM)模型进行比较。【结果】CEEMDAN-PCA-CNN-LSTM组合模型预测方法得到的平均绝对误差分别降低了44.95%、27.30%、28.13%、43.17%。【结论】CEEMDAN-PCA-CNN-LSTM模型对于河南省白条猪市场价格的预测性能更优,有助于相关部门针对河南省白条猪价格波动做出科学决策。

某纯电驱动重载车辆能耗预测模型

高精度能耗预测模型是准确预测车辆续驶里程的重要前提。针对载荷大幅度变化且非结构化道路运行的纯电驱动重载车辆,建立其组合能耗模型,该模型由能耗计算基本模型与长短时记忆(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)神经网络差值修正两部分组成。基于能量流动过程驱动电机和变速器效率建模,结合汽车行驶动力学建立能耗计算基本模型;采用LSTM神经网络来修正基本模型能耗预测结果与车辆典型工况功率测试值的差值,有效提高了大幅变载荷且低信噪比坡度环境下的车辆能耗预测精度,因此组合能耗模型具有参数简单和模型拟合不需解释能耗规律的优点。经试验测试分析,与VT-Micro能耗模型和径向基(Radial Basis Function,RBF)神经网络能耗模型相比,所提组合能耗模型的功率预测平均误差率分别降低了17.76%和3.35%,能够实现纯电驱动重载车辆复杂工况下能耗的准确实时预测。

ML组合的CYGNSS海面风速反演质量控制模型

卷积神经网络(CNN)可用于气旋全球导航卫星系统(CYGNSS)的海面风速反演。虽然在模型训练前设置了质量控制指标来检测和削弱CYGNSS的异常观测数据,但CYGNSS观测数据中仍存在异常值导致模型反演精度降低,甚至出现错误反演结果。因此,提出一种基于机器学习(ML)组合的海面风速反演模型。在基于CNN回归模型的CYGNSS反演海面风速基础上,ML分类模型生成CNN回归结果的质量标志位,该标志位可以检测并删除CNN回归结果的异常值,进一步提高风速反演结果的数据质量,ML分类模型能够更好地考虑各种数据误差之间的相互作用,而不是单独使用每个条件的阈值,以达到更优的海面风速反演精度的效果。实验对比了Logistic回归(LR)、决策树(DT)、朴素贝叶斯模型、K最邻近(KNN)算法、神经网络(NN)模型、支持向量机(SVM)算法等6个分类模型,其中,基于KNN算法的分类模型对风速反演质量控制的效果最优。所提风速反演组合模型显著提高了反演结果的精度,在0~20 m/s区间内,异常样本过滤率为81.27%,在所有被过滤的数据中,过滤正确率为86.03%;风速反演误差的均方根误差从无ML分类模型的1.7 m/s降低到有ML分类模型的1.44 m/s,其中,训练样本为0~10 m/s的反演结果精度提升效果较为明显,证明了所提风速反演组合模型对风速质量控制的有效性。

基于排序蒸馏的序列化推荐算法

为解决当前基于知识蒸馏的推荐算法排名有效性和效率低,以及现有知识蒸馏模型更强调的是静态和单一知识迁移的问题,提出一种基于排序蒸馏的序列化推荐算法。训练一个性能优越、规模大的教师模型,训练一个符合移动终端设备的小模型即学生模型,使学生模型在教师模型的指导下学习排序。学生模型实现了与教师模型相似的排名性能,且学生模型规模较小提高了在线推荐效率。通过在数据集MovieLens和Gowalla上的实验,验证了该模型增强了学生模型的学习效果,缓解了学生模型学习不充分导致排名不佳的问题。模型可以自然地运用于序列化推荐的模型中,具有很好的通用性。

SARIMA-GRU组合模型的水位预测

相较于传统的单一模型,组合模型在一定条件下具有更优的预测精度。为验证组合模型是否有利于提高模型的预测精度,本文以长江中游支流澧水石龟山水电站的水位数据为基础,建立SARIMA模型和GRU神经网络模型,并将这两种模型基于方差倒数法和IOWA算子进行组合,最后比较单一模型和组合模型在该水位数据集上的预测精度差异。结果表明,适当的组合方式有利于提高模型预测精度,基于IOWA算子的组合模型具优良的预测性能。

M-CM-GA-BP算法的地表移动变形参数预测模型

针对复杂的开采沉陷预测问题,研究22个工作面采动地表移动变形参数变化规律,提出了一种基于M-CM-GA-BP算法求取地表移动变形参数的预测模型。通过线性加权组合预测方法和遗传算法优化BP神经网络的权值和阈值,融合多元回归模型来提高地表移动变形参数的求取精度,以地表下沉系数q为例,将该模型与其他预测模型预测性能进行对比分析,验证模型的准确性。结果表明,该模型能够有效地提高地表移动变形参数的预测精度,模型的平均相对误差为1.294、均方根误差为0.013,为地表移动变形参数预测提供了一种可行方法。

西南某机场跑道沉降预测模型

机场道面沉降,严重影响机场安全运行。准确预测跑道工后沉降,对机场的建设与运行极为重要。以西南某机场跑道沉降变形的观测数据为依据,分别用双曲线模型、对数模型、指数模型以及灰色预测模型,对跑道沉降进行预测和对比分析,解决了小样本数下曲线预测精度较低及灰色模型对非线性预测准确度差等问题,提高了预测的精度;同时通过BP神经网络对组合预测模型的残差进行修正,最大限度地提高模型预测的精度和效果,为地基沉降预测提供借鉴。

基于LSTM人工神经网络的电力系统负荷预测方法

针对电力市场环境下短期电力系统负荷预测准确性较低的问题,提出了一种基于LSTM人工神经网络的组合预测模型。分析了LSTM神经网络和其变体GRU神经网络在进行负荷预测时学习时序特征的独特优势,并以卷积神经网络作为负荷数据的特征提取层,结合GRU网络构建了组合模型,通过建立残差预测模型对结果进行修正。仿真结果表明,具有记忆功能的神经网络预测效果要优于ANN和SVM模型,且所提出残差预测模型的负荷预测平均相对误差约为1.79%,其准确性高于单一算法的负荷预测模型。

42CrMo钢精密切削的刀具磨损量预测研究

针对42CrMo钢精密切削刀具磨损量预测研究小样本、非线性的特点,将量子粒子群算法(QPSO)、卷积神经网络(CNN)及长短期神经网络(LSTM)相结合,构建了QPSO-CNN-LSTM组合预测模型。采用QPSO算法对CNN-LSTM模型的隐藏层单元数、学习率、卷积核等进行优化,结合CNN网络特征提取能力强、LSTM网络具备记忆能力的特点,对实际加工实验的刀具磨损量进行预测,并通过误差评价指标分析,与CNN、LSTM、BP等单一模型以及PSO-GRNN组合模型进行预测效果对比研究。研究结果表明,本文构建的组合预测模型相对于单一预测模型,其预测值与真实值吻合程度更高;相对于PSO-GRNN组合模型,三种误差评价指标的误差值至少降低了27%,其泛化性和稳定性较好,预测精度与非线性拟合能力更强。

基于BP神经网络和二次指数平滑法组合预测模型的安徽省物流需求预测

为准确预测安徽省的物流需求,从经济发展、产量结构、地区贸易和消费水平4方面选取安徽省的地区生产总值,第一、二、三产业产值,社会消费品零售总额,固定资产投资,人均消费性支出7个影响因素作为安徽省物流需求评价指标,以安徽省货运量作为物流需求规模输出指标,采用灰色关联分析计算安徽省物流需求评价指标与物流需求规模间的关联度,判断评价指标的合理性。通过夏普利值法将BP神经网络预测模型和二次指数平滑法预测模型组合,预测2017—2021年安徽省物流需求。结果表明:BP神经网络预测模型、二次指数平滑法预测模型及二者的组合预测模型预测结果的平均相对误差分别为4.58%、6.70%、3.99%,组合预测模型的平均相对误差最小。通过组合预测模型预测2022—2024年安徽省物流需求分别为405 004.96万t、407 142.09万t、409 108.95万t,安徽省货运量呈持续增长趋势,但增幅降低。安徽省应加快传统物流向智慧物流的转移速度,扩大内需,加强物流枢纽城市间的联系,加速区域一体化发展步伐,确保物流高质量发展。

基于SARIMA-LSTM组合模型的油气集输系统能耗预测

油气集输是油田开发生产过程的重要阶段,准确预测油气集输系统能耗能够为生产调度和能源管控提供支持。为提高油气集输系统能耗预测的准确性,针对其线性和非线性特征,综合考虑数理统计和机器学习预测方法的优缺点,提出一种基于季节性差分自回归积分滑动平均(SARIMA)和长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络的组合预测模型。根据S油田M环状掺水油气集输系统6年的运行数据,设计组合模型的网络结构,训练组合模型的网络参数。研究结果表明:与传统的SARIMA模型和LSTM神经网络相比,组合模型对三个能耗指标的预测准确性显著提高,可为企业调整生产运行方案和优化能源管控方案提供指导和数据支持。

基于随机森林和神经网络的空气质量预测

不同地区的空气质量由于其影响因素不同,通常呈现出不同的变化特征。因污染物的时间长短对预测存在一定的影响,将兰州市空气质量监测中主要的6种污染物(PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、CO、O3)历史数据划分为不同时间的7组特征集,对比分析几种单一模型在7组特征集上对空气质量预测的拟合效果,得到拟合效果最优的单一模型是神经网络模型。考虑到特征选择对空气质量预测的影响,本文建立随机森林组合神经网络模型(RF+MLP)对空气质量指数进行预测,最后将三种模型(RF+MLP、RRFMLP、MLP)对空气质量指数预测的拟合结果进行了比较分析,结果表明,RF+MLP模型对兰州市空气质量指数的预测拟合度在整体上是最好的。

小波降噪及改进遗传算法的BP神经网络在基坑变形中的组合应用

以某市人民医院基坑工程为例,针对实测数据建立实测数据结合BP神经网络预测模型,小波降噪结合BP神经网络模型和小波降噪结合改进遗传算法优化的BP神经网络模型,并利用误差分析理论对基坑变形数据预测效果评价。结果表明:对比3种模型实际处理、预测数据能力,实测数据结合BP神经网络模型预测精度在1%-4%之间,小波降噪结合BP神经网络模型预测精度1%-2%之间,小波降噪结合改进遗传算法优化的BP神经网络模型预测精度在1%以内,小波降噪结合改进遗传算法优化的BP神经网络模型的预测准确率最高。针对基坑变形监测,小波降噪结合改进遗传算法优化的BP神经网络模型具有更高预测精度,可为类似工程提供实际参考。