基于五行学说探讨从肝防治COVID-19

新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)肆虐至今,中医药对其的防控与治疗发挥了不可替代的作用。作者基于中医五行学说,从中西医不同角度出发,探讨肝与肺两脏之间的生理联系、病理影响。尤其强调COVID-19与肝脏的功能、机体免疫以及人体正气之间的关系,以期从中西医不同角度探讨从肝防治COVID-19的科学内涵,为中医药防治COVID-19提供理论依据与科研思路。

COVID-19对高等教育的影响及我们的应对——基于国际组织相关报告的回溯性分析

文章选择联合国教科文组织及国际大学协会两大与高等教育相关的国际组织作为研究案例,以高等教育与COVID-19相关的研究报告作为分析样本,深度解读COVID-19对高等教育的教学、研究、公平和包容、国际交流、行政管理方面的影响,总结高等教育机构在危机不同时期的应对策略。最后提出后疫情时代高等教育变革的主要方向,即以可持续发展视角观照高等教育发展,以更系统的眼光统筹高等教育治理,以数字化转型推动高等教育创新发展,以高等教育国际合作维护全球共同利益。

COVID-19大流行对南昌市热岛效应的影响评估

COVID-19疫情对城市环境产生了显著而广泛的影响。以南昌市为研究对象,运用劈窗算法,利用多时相遥感数据反演城市地表温度,由此对疫情不同阶段不同土地利用类型的热岛效应的时空分布特征进行了分析,从而揭示了COVID-19疫情防控不同时期城市热环境变化的规律。结果表明,与疫情之前同时期的情况对比,在2次封控管理期间,城市热岛效应分别下降了57%和49.3%,且这种下降幅度随着距离城市中心的增加而减小。此外,不同土地覆盖类型的热岛效应变化幅度存在差异。水体、森林、荒地和农田的热岛效应下降幅度相对较小,而城镇区域的热岛效应下降幅度较大。这些发现对深入理解疫情防控的不同阶段城市热环境的时空变化提供了重要的实证研究支持,也为优化城市规划和管理策略,减轻城市热岛效应,并为未来类似的突发事件提供参考。

考虑人员配置和工作时长的COVID-19核酸采样点选址

COVID-19疫情背景下,常态化核酸检测可以有效实现感染者“早发现、早报告、早隔离”的目标,现已成为各地疫情防控的主要措施。通过核酸采样点布局优化,可以更好地提高核酸采样效率。首先,结合疫情防控实际要求提出一类全新的核酸采样点布局问题,其在传统“选址-分配”问题上,进一步集成考虑了采样点的服务能力、人员配置和工作时长等优化决策。其次,将该问题构建为一类非线性混合整数模型,进一步通过添加变量和约束的方法对其线性等价转换。再者,采用Cplex软件求解模型,进一步通过网格测试发现,在3600秒内最多可求解出包含525个节点的中等规模问题;最后,结合苏州市双塔街道核酸采样相关数据进行仿真分析,算例结果验证了模型的有效性。

Haddon模型视角下大数据和人工智能在COVID-19疫情防控中的应用分析

大数据和人工智能技术在新型冠状病毒感染(COVID-19)疫情防控中发挥了积极作用,但是目前鲜有研究对其应用情况和未来趋势进行综合探讨。本研究从COVID-19疫情防控面临的问题出发,在介绍大数据和人工智能技术优势的基础上,对疫情防控过程中常用的大数据和人工智能技术及其实际应用案例进行概述;并基于Haddon模型视角,从疫情发生前、发生中和发生后3个阶段,针对传染病的传染源、传播途径和易感人群三要素,对大数据和人工智能技术在其中的应用进行了深入探讨。研究结果对明确大数据和人工智能技术在COVID-19疫情各流行阶段的积极作用及发展应用方向,提升疫情的防控效率和质量,有效应对未来新发传染病等具有重要意义。

Analysis on the Changes of Research Hotspots in the Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19 by Traditional Chinese Medicine Based on Knowledge Graph

Objective: To grasp the changing trend of research hotspots of traditional Chinese medicine in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19, and to better play the role of traditional Chinese medicine in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19 and other diseases. Methods: The research literature from 2020 to 2022 was searched in the CNKI database, and CiteSpace software was used for visual analysis. Results: The papers on the prevention and treatment of COVID-19 by traditional Chinese medicine changed from cases, overviews, reports, and efficacy studies to more in-depth mechanism research, theoretical exploration, and social impact analysis, and finally formed a theory-clinical-society Influence-institutional change and other multi-dimensional achievement systems. Conclusion: Analyzing the changing trends of TCM hotspots in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19 can fully understand the important value of TCM, take the coordination of TCM and Western medicine as an important means to deal with public health security incidents, and promote the exploration of the potential efficacy of TCM, so as to enhance the role of TCM in Applications in social stability, emergency security, clinical practice, etc.

Mathematical Modelling of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Northern Ireland in 2020

In this study, we investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Northern Ireland from 1st March 2020 up to 25th December 2020, using several copies of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model, and compare it to a detailed publicly available dataset. We split the data into 10 time intervals and fit the models on the consecutive intervals to the cumulative number of confirmed positive cases on each interval. Using the fitted parameter estimates, we also provide estimates of the reproduction number. We also discuss the limitations and possible extensions of the employed model.

The Application of the “3 + 1” Mode in the COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control at the Infection Ward of a Designated Comprehensive Hospital for COVID-19 Treatment

Objective: We assess the application effect of the “3 + 1” mode in the COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control at the infection ward of a designated comprehensive hospital for COVID-19 treatment. Method: Based on the features of the inpatients of the infection ward and their relatives, a “3 + 1” mode for the COVID-19 prevention and control is developed to conform to the demands for epidemic prevention and control and the overall prevention and control scheme of the whole hospital. Here, “3” stands for the epidemic prevention and control system, personnel management, and prevention and control measures;“1” stands for COVID-19 testing. Result: From March 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021, a total of 3056 patients were hospitalized in the three infection wards. Among them, 265 patients had a fever, and 113 patients had respiratory symptoms. None of them were infected with COVID-19. The participation rate of the test about the knowledge related to COVID-19 and the knowledge mastery rate were both 100% among the medical staff. None of the inpatients and their companions or the medical staff was diagnosed with COVID-19. Conclusion: Thus the “3 + 1” mode proves successful for avoiding nosocomial infection and the spread of the epidemic.

Partial Unlock for COVID-19-Like Epidemics Can Save 1 - 3 Million Lives Worldwide

Background: A large percentage of deaths in an epidemic or pandemic can be due to overshoot of population (herd) immunity, either from the initial peak or from planned or unplanned exit from lockdown or social distancing conditions. Objectives: We study partial unlock or reopening interaction with seasonal effects in a managed epidemic to quantify overshoot effects on small and large unlock steps and discover robust strategies for reducing overshoot. Methods: We simulate partial unlock of social distancing for epidemics over a range of replication factor, immunity duration and seasonality factor for strategies targeting immunity thresholds using overshoot optimization. Results: Seasonality change must be taken into account as one of the steps in an easing sequence, and a two-step unlock, including seasonal effects, minimizes overshoot and deaths. It may cause undershoot, which causes rebounds and assists survival of the pathogen. Conclusions: Partial easing levels, even low levels for economic relief while waiting on a vaccine, have population immunity thresholds based on the reduced replication rates and may experience overshoot as well. We further find a two-step strategy remains highly sensitive to variations in case ratio, replication factor, seasonality and timing. We demonstrate a three or more step strategy is more robust, and conclude that the best possible approach minimizes deaths under a range of likely actual conditions which include public response.

Psychological Study of a Patient with COVID-19 at the Early Stage of the Epidemic

Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) caused by novel coronavirus 2019 (2019-nCoV) has led to 199,466,211 confirmed cases, including 4,244,541 deaths by 6:44 pm CEST. This epidemic is now on the period of global outbreak, the control of COVID-19 has severely challenged the world. At the beginning of the outbreak, patients infected or suspected were observed and close contacts were isolated. The country delayed the resumption of work and school and all walks of life are seriously affected. All kinds of true and false information and rumours on the internet exist, aggravating people’s anxiety and restlessness. These factors altogether often induce people to feel various negative emotions and psychological problems. In this paper, a patient with COVID-19 was examined through psychological dynamic observation at the beginning of the epidemic. It was found that in the early stage of the epidemic, due to the lack of clear treatment guidelines, the main treatment methods and psychological problems were the main reasons affecting the recovery of patients. Many uncertain factors, including individual and social factors and quarantine, worry about the prognosis, etc, resulting in anxiety, fear, unacceptance, insomnia, irritability and other pessimistic moods. After 16 days of symptomatic treatment, psychological counselling and adjustments in a timely manner, the patient eventually recovered and was discharged. The discussion of this case could serve as a reference for the treatment and rehabilitation of patients with COVID-19 in other countries and regions.

COVID-19疫情下居家防疫对居民食品浪费行为的影响

新冠肺炎疫情下实施居家防疫,深刻影响了居民的食品浪费行为。以黑龙江省为研究区域,基于问卷调查数据对此进行本土化研究。结果显示:与疫情前常态情况相比,该省居民居家防疫期间过度饮食性食品浪费量减少了10065.26吨/天;疫情前在外就餐与在家用餐共丢弃食品4521.68吨/天,居家防疫期间食品丢弃集中于在家用餐,数量为3295.25吨/天,结构由疫情前的剩余型浪费、储存型浪费持平转向储存型浪费为主;居家防疫期间剩余型浪费量与储存型浪费量的影响因素相异。针对上述结论,提出以下政策建议:保持适度食品危机感,固化烹饪计划能力;构建“社区+数字化+精准配送”的食品信息发布及配送机制;提升食品采购计划能力;加强营养膳食科普宣传,鼓励适量用餐。

COVID-19疫情常态化防控下门诊患者防护依从性及其影响因素分析

目的 探讨新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情常态化防控时期普通门诊患者的防护行为及其影响因素,为做好应对突发公共卫生事件及患者行为依从性管理提供参考。方法 对2022年9月1日~2022年10月1日在焦作市第二人民医院普通门诊就诊的患者采用自制调查问卷进行调查,共发放1 800份,收回有效问卷1 632份(90.66%);内容包括社会人口学特征、防护行为信息、防护依从性等,对防护依从性的相关因素进行单因素分析及多因素Logistic回归分析。结果 本组90.8%的患者愿意实施规范防护,其中防护依从率占90.81%。单因素分析显示,不同文化程度、医保类别、月收入、职业、居住地的患者防护行为依从性比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,高学历、有城镇职工保险、高收入、接种过新冠疫苗的患者防护行为依从性较高;疫情的严重性认知、规范防护的益处认知、自我效能、防护共识对防护依从性有着显著影响,其得分越高,规范防护依从性越好。结论 疫情常态化防控时期,普通门诊患者整体防护依从性较高。文化程度、医保类别、收入、是否接种过新冠疫苗、疫情严重性认知、规范防护的益处认知、自我效能、防护共识是规范防护依从性的影响因素。

基于SEIADR模型研究口罩对COVID-19传播的影响

为了模拟COVID-19流行病的传播,将无症状感染者引入SEIDR模型中,提出了一个改进的SEIADR模型来分析戴口罩对COVID-19流行病最终规模和基本再生数的影响。为了研究口罩对新冠肺炎传播的影响,将人群分为两组:一组戴口罩(包括易感者、暴露者、有症状感染者、无症状感染者、死亡人群和康复人群);另一组不戴口罩(包括易感者、暴露者、有症状感染者、无症状感染者、死亡人群和康复人群)。运用分组动力学模型确定了流行病的基本再生数和控制再生数;从生物学意义对再生数进行了解释,并根据文献中的相关数据模拟了疾病的最终规模;最后通过数值分析模拟了戴口罩对流行病传播过程中的动态影响。数据模拟表明,如果所有人不戴口罩,那么控制再生数为1.35;如果50%的人戴口罩,口罩的易感性和传染性降低50%,那么控制再生数会下降到0.39,而病例最终规模也将从73.20%降到16.15%。

COVID-19 and Cardiovascular Disease—Two Pandemics, One Success

Background: COVID-19 has had a major impact on all facets of life in the United States. Its devastating effects have resulted in the mobilization of major resources, both at the national, state, and individual levels. This mobilization has resulted in vaccination, personal preventive measures, and new therapies to combat this illness. As a result, the rates of new infections, hospitalizations, and deaths have greatly diminished, minimizing the associated morbidity and mortality. Purpose: What has not been appreciated is that a more serious epidemic has continued unabated in the United States and the Western world. This article emphasizes the importance of a national effort to eradicate cardiovascular disease. Methods: Cardiovascular disease has caused more deaths than COVID-19 in almost all months since the COVID-19 epidemic was first recognized in December 2020. In fact, cardiovascular disease has caused more deaths than either all cancers combined or infections for the last two decades. The tragedy of this truth is that effective therapy is currently available for preventing and reversing cardiovascular disease at a very low cost. What is required is a concerted effort and commitment by all legislative and medical organizations to allocate the resources to abolish asymptomatic cardiovascular disease. Results: Recognition and mobilization of resources to combat this epidemic are much overdue with the resultant savings of lives and billions of dollars. It is past time for the medical establishment to support the national identification of asymptomatic cardiovascular disease and initiate treatment before patients become symptomatic with this deadly disease. Conclusion: The national experience with COVID-19 has demonstrated what can be accomplished when a national concerted effort is made to address a devastating medical epidemic. This commitment is not only feasible for cardiovascular disease, but is also necessary for the benefit of all people in the world.

COVID-19疫情对台湾地区旅游业的影响

旅游业对政治、经济、社会、文化以及国际关系都会产生一定的影响。随着跨地域流动渐趋频繁,旅游业成为了地方化与全球化连结的重要指标。2020年伊始,新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球肆虐,台湾地区的旅游业也饱受考验。疫情影响下旅游产业发生巨变,旅游业复苏需更具弹性、重视可持续性性及包容性。在全球追求可持续性风潮、倡议气候变迁治理政策与COVID-19疫情影响之下,台湾地区旅游产业的发展可实施以下策略:1)创新旅游产业,升级核心业务:因疫情不确定性,调整并升级服务或产品;2)加速科技应用与导入:应用多元科技,解决无法面对面服务的痛点;3)转型旅游产业,吸引国际及在地游客:重新定位品牌在地化,调整商品销售与营销模式;4)转变个人化旅客消费模式,带动旅宿产业转型:数字游民(Digital Nomad)带动居家度假Staycation(stay+vacation)与工作度假Workation(work+vacation),实行生活、工作、旅游界线模糊模式,结合深度文化或自然体验;5)由环境可持续性转变为可持续旅游模式:可持续性的理念是实施环境可持续性的基石,在疫情影响下,将旅游景点与生态休养生息相结合,为动植物与环境增加新生机,提供旅客深度旅游体验规划。

Clustering Countries on COVID-19 Data among Different Waves Using K-Means Clustering

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented spike in confirmed cases in 230 countries globally. In this work, a set of data from the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak has been subjected to two well-known unsupervised learning techniques: K-means clustering and correlation. The COVID-19 virus has infected several nations, and K-means automatically looks for undiscovered clusters of those infections. To examine the spread of COVID-19 before a vaccine becomes widely available, this work has used unsupervised approaches to identify the crucial county-level confirmed cases, death cases, recover cases, total_cases_per_million, and total_deaths_per_million aspects of county-level variables. We combined countries into significant clusters using this feature subspace to assist more in-depth disease analysis efforts. As a result, we used a clustering technique to examine various trends in COVID-19 incidence and mortality across nations. This technique took the key components of a trajectory and incorporates them into a K-means clustering process. We separated the trend lines into measures that characterize various features of a trend. The measurements were first reduced in dimension, then clustered using a K-means algorithm. This method was used to individually calculate the incidence and death rates and then compare them.

从SARS到禽流感与COVID-19谈中医药防疫的研究思路及其意义

近年来,从SARS、禽流感到新冠肺炎(COVID-19)的肆虐,中医药对烈性传染病的防治逐步得到重视,但存在中医介入过晚、缺乏较全面“四诊”资料、重药轻医等不足之处。鉴于此,为科学决策及防治COVID-19,我们从中医疫病学研究特色及中医药参与研究的得失出发,探讨中医药防大疫的研究思路:建议通过动物实验研究,采用“以方测证”的研究思路;组织中医外感热病学专家对患者进行临床观察,与动物实验相互印证;人畜共患传染病的研究需要医学家、防疫学家、兽医学家、气象学家等多学科通力合作;中医药研究必须遵循辨证论治的原则,从发病早期开始全面收集中医“四诊”资料,真正从中医角度探讨其发病、证候、传变规律以及中医和(或)中西医结合的疗效。

用离散随机模型研究湖北新冠肺炎COVID-19流行病动力学特征

新冠肺炎COVID-19的爆发并在全国及世界范围内的扩散传播造成了巨大社会影响,研究流行病传播动力学特征有助于更好地对疫情进行掌控和防治。我们发展了一种离散变量随机概率方法,对湖北省疫情发展进行模拟和预测。首先根据排队论的Erlang概率分布对每日确诊人数进行处理,获得每日发病人数和感染人数。计算结果与中国疾病预防控制中心(CDC)已经整理公开的部分资料比较吻合,证明处理方法科学可信。进而依据每日发病人数,反演疫情发展不同阶段的有效传染率的变化,并据此预测未来疫情可能怎样发展。发现疫情初期基本传染数R0从6.1减少到4.0,在武汉采取封城等有效措施后,有效R值减少到1之下,并逐步降低到0.13以下。发病高峰已经在2月初度过,目前虽然不排除疫情会有小的起伏,但只要坚持严格的隔离管控措施,总的趋势就不会变化。预期疫情在3月底前后结束,累计患病人数达到71000人左右。春节后回程的农民工和学生诱发大的疫情回弹可能性不大。但是世界上一些国家正处在疫情可能爆发的阶段,国家应该对入境人员做好检查和隔离管控工作。

论寒疫与新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)防治

通过对寒疫与伤寒的关系、历代医家对寒疫特点的认识及新冠肺炎临床特征的分析,阐述了新冠肺炎从寒疫防治的思路,对新冠肺炎的治则方药进行了探讨。同时结合运用透邪解毒法治疗和预防新冠肺炎验案,分析两者之间的关系,以期深化中医对新冠肺炎认识,提高临床疗效,从而有效控制疫情发展。

COVID-19疫情对孕产妇情绪的影响及相关因素分析

目的研究COVID-19疫情爆发期间孕产妇情绪状况,为突发公共卫生事件下孕产妇情绪健康状况的监测、干预提供科学依据。方法本研究于2020年2月14日至2020年2月25日新冠肺炎疫情流行高峰期进行问卷调查,采用线上自愿无记名形式发放问卷,共计抽取2504名孕产妇作为调查对象。采用自编一般情况调查表、心理健康状况调查表进行调查。采用Kruskal-Wallish H检验、逐步多元线性回归分析法对孕产妇情绪状况进行分析。结果孕产妇学历、居住地、胎次、孕产期、职业、有无并发症及家庭收入在情绪状况得分上均存在显著性差异(H=15.83、32.85、10.81、35.07、28.46、14.81、10.80,均P<0.05)。两两比较发现,高学历、居住在城市、第一胎、孕早期、有并发症、高家庭收入者情绪状况得分较高,产后妇女及职业为农民的妇女情绪状况得分较低。以情绪得分为因变量,进入回归方程的显著性变量依次是身体状况(β=0.33)、睡眠变化(β=0.20)、社会支持(β=-0.15)、消极应对(β=0.18)、担心家人会被传染(β=0.07)、积极应对(β=-0.13)、日常运动(β=0.07)、担心疫情影响分娩(β=0.07)、担心生病(β=0.04)、周围有无人与新冠感染者或疑似感染者接触(β=-0.03),均P<0.05。结论孕产妇对疫情的主观认知、身体状况、运动情况、睡眠状况、应对方式和社会支持等因素与孕产妇情绪状况相关,建议重点针对这些方面对孕产妇情绪进行疏导和干预。