This paper provides a systematic evaluation of the ability of 12 Earth System Models(ESMs)participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to simulate the spatial inhomogeneity of the atmospher...This paper provides a systematic evaluation of the ability of 12 Earth System Models(ESMs)participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to simulate the spatial inhomogeneity of the atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2))concentration.The multi-model ensemble mean(MME)can reasonably simulate the increasing trend of CO_(2) concentration from 1850 to 2014,compared with the observation data from the Scripps CO_(2) Program and CMIP6 prescribed data,and improves upon the CMIP5 MME CO_(2) concentration(which is overestimated after 1950).The growth rate of CO_(2) concentration in the northern hemisphere(NH)is higher than that in the southern hemisphere(SH),with the highest growth rate in the mid-latitudes of the NH.The MME can also reasonably simulate the seasonal amplitude of CO_(2) concentration,which is larger in the NH than in the SH and grows in amplitude after the 1950s(especially in the NH).Although the results of the MME are reasonable,there is a large spread among ESMs,and the difference between the ESMs increases with time.The MME results show that regions with relatively large CO_(2) concentrations(such as northern Russia,eastern China,Southeast Asia,the eastern United States,northern South America,and southern Africa)have greater seasonal variability and also exhibit a larger inter-model spread.Compared with CMIP5,the CMIP6 MME simulates an average spatial distribution of CO_(2) concentration that is much closer to the site observations,but the CMIP6-inter-model spread is larger.The inter-model differences of the annual means and seasonal cycles of atmospheric CO_(2) concentration are both attributed to the differences in natural sources and sinks of CO_(2) between the simulations.展开更多
地球系统模式结果表明大气CO_(2)浓度的快速增加是气候变化重要的原因之一。卫星资料分析结果表明,大气CO_(2)浓度并非均一的,而是有明显的区域差异,以人类活动为主的碳排放会影响这一区域差异。这种空间差异如何影响区域地表气温对CO_...地球系统模式结果表明大气CO_(2)浓度的快速增加是气候变化重要的原因之一。卫星资料分析结果表明,大气CO_(2)浓度并非均一的,而是有明显的区域差异,以人类活动为主的碳排放会影响这一区域差异。这种空间差异如何影响区域地表气温对CO_(2)的敏感度,需要进一步深入系统的研究,利用地球系统模式BNU-ESM(Earth System Model of Beijing Normal University)进行数值模拟,并与观测数据进行比较,结果表明:在试验模拟结果2°C阈值内,非均匀CO_(2)浓度试验的CO_(2)浓度增加阈值范围小于均匀CO_(2)浓度试验结果,偏少约为4.3 ppm(106)。在区域尺度上,中国地表气温对CO_(2)敏感度普遍低于美国、欧洲以及北半球平均水平,这表明CO_(2)浓度空间差异对地表气温的敏感度的影响存在明显区域差异,很可能是CO_(2)浓度辐射效应与气候系统反馈过程的共同作用结果,这需要进一步研究。非均匀CO_(2)浓度对地表气温敏感度影响将会对碳中和目标下未来碳汇潜力精准估算提供科学支持。展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42230608)the UK-China Research&Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund.
文摘This paper provides a systematic evaluation of the ability of 12 Earth System Models(ESMs)participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to simulate the spatial inhomogeneity of the atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2))concentration.The multi-model ensemble mean(MME)can reasonably simulate the increasing trend of CO_(2) concentration from 1850 to 2014,compared with the observation data from the Scripps CO_(2) Program and CMIP6 prescribed data,and improves upon the CMIP5 MME CO_(2) concentration(which is overestimated after 1950).The growth rate of CO_(2) concentration in the northern hemisphere(NH)is higher than that in the southern hemisphere(SH),with the highest growth rate in the mid-latitudes of the NH.The MME can also reasonably simulate the seasonal amplitude of CO_(2) concentration,which is larger in the NH than in the SH and grows in amplitude after the 1950s(especially in the NH).Although the results of the MME are reasonable,there is a large spread among ESMs,and the difference between the ESMs increases with time.The MME results show that regions with relatively large CO_(2) concentrations(such as northern Russia,eastern China,Southeast Asia,the eastern United States,northern South America,and southern Africa)have greater seasonal variability and also exhibit a larger inter-model spread.Compared with CMIP5,the CMIP6 MME simulates an average spatial distribution of CO_(2) concentration that is much closer to the site observations,but the CMIP6-inter-model spread is larger.The inter-model differences of the annual means and seasonal cycles of atmospheric CO_(2) concentration are both attributed to the differences in natural sources and sinks of CO_(2) between the simulations.
文摘地球系统模式结果表明大气CO_(2)浓度的快速增加是气候变化重要的原因之一。卫星资料分析结果表明,大气CO_(2)浓度并非均一的,而是有明显的区域差异,以人类活动为主的碳排放会影响这一区域差异。这种空间差异如何影响区域地表气温对CO_(2)的敏感度,需要进一步深入系统的研究,利用地球系统模式BNU-ESM(Earth System Model of Beijing Normal University)进行数值模拟,并与观测数据进行比较,结果表明:在试验模拟结果2°C阈值内,非均匀CO_(2)浓度试验的CO_(2)浓度增加阈值范围小于均匀CO_(2)浓度试验结果,偏少约为4.3 ppm(106)。在区域尺度上,中国地表气温对CO_(2)敏感度普遍低于美国、欧洲以及北半球平均水平,这表明CO_(2)浓度空间差异对地表气温的敏感度的影响存在明显区域差异,很可能是CO_(2)浓度辐射效应与气候系统反馈过程的共同作用结果,这需要进一步研究。非均匀CO_(2)浓度对地表气温敏感度影响将会对碳中和目标下未来碳汇潜力精准估算提供科学支持。
