Research on Early Warning of Banking Crises from the Perspective of Credit Structures

The relationship between credit expansion and banking crises is complex and cannot be fully explained by total credit alone.A systematic analysis of the relationship between the amount and structure of total credit and banking crises is important for an objective prediction of the influence of potential financial risks.This paper,drawing on data from 15 selected countries,delves into the power of credit indicators in the early warning of banking crises from the perspectives of industrial structure,sector structure,and term structure of credit.Various machine learning methods were used,including Logistic Regression,Random Forest,Decision Tree,Support Vector Machine(SVM),Bagging,and Boosting models.The empirical findings indicate that credit expansion plays a crucial role in triggering banking crises.However,total credit is better suited for the early warning of short-term banking crises,whereas credit structure is more useful for the early warning of long-term banking crises.Moreover,in an early warning system,identifying key early warning indicators is more meaningful than merely increasing the number of indicators.Machine learning can somewhat enhance the early warning power,but it may not always be robust.Therefore,more attention should be paid to potential systemic banking crises resulting from an imbalance in credit structure while regulating the total credit threshold.

Diagnosis and treatment of hypertensive crises in the elderly patients

Hypertension is a common clinical problem in the elderly worldwide and physicians of all types are likely to encounter patients with hypertensive urgencies and emergencies in these patients. Although various terms have been applied to these conditions, they are all characterized by acute elevations in blood pressure and evidence of end-organ injury. Prompt, but carefully considered therapy is necessary to limit morbidity and mortality. A wide range of pharmacologic alternatives are available to the practitioner to control blood pressure and treat complications in these patients. The management of the elderly patient with hypertensive crises needs to include close monitoring and a gentle decline in blood pressure to avoid catastrophic complications, exacerbation of ischemic myopathy, and vascular insufficiency.

Was There a Contagion during the Asian Crises?

The contagion of financial crises surrounding the markets around the world has been in the forefront of academic and public discussions. In this paper, we attempt to study the “contagion effect” of the stock market crises around the world by studying the correlations of global stock returns and volatility. We analyze the daily returns of major stock indexes around the world to discover the timing and path of the transmission of shocks that manifest themselves in stock market returns. We construct VARs of major stock market index returns and volatilities. Our work differs from the literature in analyzing spillover effects between emerging markets and other major stock markets.

A Nonlinear Dynamic Model of the Financial Crises Contagions

Employing the Differential Dynamics Method, a nonlinear dynamic model is set up to describe the international financial crises contagion within a short time between two countries. The two countries’ control force depending on the timely financial assistance, the positive attitude and actions to rescue other infected countries, and investor confidence aggregation, and the immunity ability of the infected country are considered as the major reasons to drive the nonlinear fluctuations of the stock return rates in both countries during the crisis. According to the Ordinary Differential Equations Qualitative Theory, we found that there are three cases of financial crises contagion within a brief time between two countries: weak contagion with instability but inhibition, contagion with limit and controllable oscillation, and strong contagion without control in a brief time.

Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of Parents in the Vaso-Occlusive Crises of the Sick Children in Brazzaville

Objectives: to evaluate the parents’ knowledge of vaso-occlusive crises, to identify their attitudes and practices. Method: a retrospective, transversal, descriptive and analytical study carried out between January and June 2016 at the HUC of Brazzaville. The parents of sickle cell children aged 2 to 17 years, followed for at least one year, were interviewed. Results: a total of 319 parents were interviewed, including 221 women (69.3%) and 98 men (30.7%) with a mean age of 40.8 ± 9 years. They were unschooled 65 cases (20.4%), had primary education 41 cases (12.9%), secondary 149 cases (46.7%) and higher level 64 cases (20.1%). They had one child sickle cell 258 cases (80.9%). They knew sickle cell disease 283 cases (88.7%), its genetic transmission 249 cases (78.1%). The source of information was a health worker 211 cases (66.1%). They had a good knowledge of the vaso-occlusive crisis 101 cases (31.7%). In a vaso-occlusive crisis, they used a health facility 207 cases (64.8%), self-medicated 66 cases (20.7%). Their home practices were good 99 cases (31%), fairly good 135 cases (42.3%) and bad 85 cases (26.5%). Parents aged 25 to 34 (OR = 1.8 95% 1 - 3), secondary (OR = 1.7 95% 1 - 2.7) and with good practices (OR = 4.5 95% 2.7 - 7.5) are those who have a good knowledge of vaso-occlusive crises. Conclusion: The importance and severity of vaso-occlusive crises in the sickle-cell child’s life experience, the crucial role played by parents in their care requires that the information, education and communication of these children be strengthened To improve their quality of life.

Communicating in Product Harm Crises: Do the Right Thing

Food recalls can have very serious aftermath from many points of view: starting from the outbreak consequences on public health, on company’s reputation, sell-out, finance, up to putting at risk the survival of the firm itself. From a formal point of view, a product harm crisis presents similarities with other emergency situations: both of them consist in unpredictable events, often due to unknown or undervalued causes, which can significantly alter normal business and compromise the safety of the company, of its employees and customers. Given the potential damage resulting from a dangerous product crisis, it is surprising that in the food industry alongside mere procedures (often reducible to botched manuals compiled solely because their presence reassures auditors and authorities) there is still little attention to an approach based on a method. Formal corporate procedures (manuals and crisis management plans) are important, but can cause a false sense of security and preparedness, if executives do not possess an adequate crisis management culture, which depends, as well as on experience and training, also on the ability to assume the correct behavioral posture, and which involves psychological, organizational and communicational skills that can not be undervalued. The purpose of this article is to provide a practical approach based on the experience of crisis-management (applied in emergency situations by health professionals, armed forces and civil protection) useful to support food industry during a food recall, in order to avoid the most classic errors that can undermine speed of reaction, corrective measures effectiveness and leadership, in the most delicate moments for a company life. If it is true the way a firm manages the recall affects its impact, it is necessary to assess the fundamental factors to be observed at such times: timeliness, lucidity, responsibility, leadership.

“Blessing or Curse”?Introduction of Bond Notes as an Antidote to Zimbabwe’s Liquidity Crises

The Zimbabwean financial sector has been retrogressive,constrained,and unpredictable since the year 2000,serving for the multiple currency periods(2009-2013)after the demonetization of the domestic dollar.The sector since then has seen a number of commercial banks fail to meet RBZ(Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe)minimum capital requirements,put under curatorship,delisted or liquidated because of a myriad of operational and financial challenges.The objective of this study is to make an assessment of whether or not the introduction of bond notes has been a curse or blessing.The study drew raw data from bank account holders,academics,general public,corporate world and commercial banks in Masvingo for analysis and interpretation.The study established that the majority of people,corporate world and commercial banks were sceptical to embrace the surrogate bond notes because of the uncertainties,operational and financial risks that they paused on the domestic financial markets.It was also discovered that most banks were quick to pay clients’withdrawals in bond notes,deduct US dollar equivalences from their accounts,and distinguish bond notes from US dollars at the point of making deposits and foreign business transactions.It was also realized that there was market indiscipline and trading in bigger US dollar notes in the informal sector and serious shortage of the same notes in the formal sector.The study concluded that the introduction of bond notes to trade parallel to the US dollar brought a serious shortage of cash on formal markets and increases in the general price level of goods and services.The study therefore recommends that the RBZ should completely withdraw the bond notes from the market to accord the US dollar its world market value and restore confidence and discipline in the Zimbabwean financial sector.The study also recommends another option of the adoption of the South African Rand as an interventionist way of solving Zimbabwe’s liquidity crises.

Continuities of Historical Crises and Discourses of Europe From the “Neo-Latin Past” to the 21st Century

Europe and the EU have been facing many crises and challenges in recent years.From Brexit and rising nationalism to economic problems and unanimous refugee policies,most of them remain unsolved.Instead of moving forward with the European integration project,Europe seems to regress in many instances.Considering this turmoil,it seems all the more important to historicize the affirmative discourse of Europe and to expand the knowledge of the European unification process with novel insights into its history.Only if a broad understanding of its roots and developments prevails,the conflicts of the present can be better evaluated and addressed.Particularly one set of so far neglected sources from Europe’s past serves as guiding light in that respect:the early modern Europe literature written in the Latin language.Between 1400 and 1800,Latin enjoyed a similar status in promoting scientific discoveries,negotiating political affairs and generally communicating on an international level as modern-day English.By offering a brief glance at some historically influential Latin texts from the early modern discourse of Europe,this article will show that the early modern European crises strikingly resemble Europe’s current crises despite the difference in political,social,and economic circumstances.The discourse of Europe has from the beginning been a stable discourse,characterized by the same recurring questions for centuries.When used as reference point for the crises of the 21st century,the prospects for the European integration look better than presumed.

Late Miocene Environmental Crises and Their Impacts:Desiccation of the Mediterranean and Its bearing on World Desertification and Hominid Appearance

The ancient Mediterranean was once dried up around6~5.3million years ago.It is a landmark event,which had great impact on global environment and climate.However,few references are available in the literatures on this topic,

WORLD MILITARY SITUATION 2016: ANTAGONISM INTENSIFIES BUT CRISES REMAIN CONTROLLABLE

The world military situation in 2016was complex,military strategies of major countries undergoing profound readjustment,contest in emerging fields increasing and a new round of populism cropping up worldwide which resulted in'Black swan events'happening one after another,major-country contest and geopolitical conflicts piling up and local

Frequent Crises Usher in Deepgoing Adjustments

The past year witnessed an extremely complicated world scene characterised byemergence of frequent crises accompanied by deepgoing adjustments as well asof fierce competition coupled with strengthening cooperation. The dangers of finan-cial storms, economic recession, political turmoils and military jeopardies emergingat the turn of the century bring to the world both big-scale tensions on the negativeside and unusual early warnings on the positive side. The tendencies toward glob-alization, multi-polarization and a new-type relationship among nations have

Education Under Siege: Exploring How International Economic Sanctions Create Crises of Pedagogy

Purpose:This article examines the adverse impact of international economic sanctions on pedagogy.The article considers the contemporary times as a period of misinformation,false news,and untruths.Utilizing anti-hegemonic literature,international economic sanctions are viewed as neoliberalism's instrument of coercion,a Western weapon used to enforce Western values on thosewithdifferentperceptions toward thefreemarket system.Design/Approach/Methods:This article utilizes critical scholarship to unmask authoritarian neoliberalism and a scoping review of sanctioned societies.Critical analytics are deployedto interpret and make sense of the dominant educational policy framework that appears to be against diversity.Findings:Neoliberalism has caused a crisis in pedagogy.Education is under siege as academics and scientific evidence are being disregarded.The call is for pedagogues from all over the world to continue to avail evidence to power by practicing critical education.Literature is utilized to propose critical pedagogy when scientific evidence is disputed,and non-Western epistemologies are considered anachronous.Originality/Value:Linking sanctions and neoliberalism is relativelynovel,as is the contribution of the same lenses to authoritarian neoliberalism.The assault on divergent epistemologies is critical,and the defense of critical scholarship is every academic's duty.The article joins conversations on the neoliberal assault on education and society.

Roles of commodity futures derivatives and financial crises in global food security

Commodity futures have been largely blamed for the price hikes in 2007/mid-2008 and 2010/2011 and the decreased food security around the world,especially in less developed countries.There still exist serious disagreements between most economists and policymakers as to whether this is the case.We run time-series regressions for all samples and subsamples for lower-income,middle-income,and high-income countries respectively.The empirical results show that commodity futures have a more significant negative impact on food security in low-income countries than in middle-income and high-income economies.Financial crises,however,have a significant impact on food security in all the regional divisions as a whole and are seen to exasperate the negative effect of some of the commodity futures on food security.We also find evidence that a certain degree of speculation in some commodities stabilises prices of those commodities as expected by theory.Our results have important policy implications as policymakers must control these speculations but should also be careful not to overregulate the market.

Nigerian Languages and Identity Crises

Nigeria is home to over 500 languages(Lewis,2009),accounting for 25%of languages spoken in Africa.Most have never been documented.28 languages are listed in the UNESCO Atlas of Endangered Languages as endangered.In addition to these indigenous languages,there are three other foreign languages:English,French and Arabic,which have become part of the system over the years.English as the language of official communication,has a prominent place in the system.French was made Nigeria’s second official language since 1996 by General Sani Abacha’s regime,even though this has not been duly implemented.Arabic is connected to Islamic education,and it is used extensively in the northern parts of the country.Nigeria also has recognized three languages:Hausa,Yoruba and Igbo as‘major’languages,which attract a lot of government patronage,as opposed to the‘minor’languages,which have not attracted much government attention as they are very many.The Nigerian linguistic situation is therefore diverse,fragmented and chaotic.This linguistic situation has created a complex system which has engendered varied identities,leading to several crises in different areas.How can‘Unity in Diversity’be achieved in Nigeria?This paper explores the role of Nigerian languages in identity formation and the crises arising in different sectors of the Nigerian society.The identity crises explored here are:linguistic,political,ethnic and educational;and these are addressed within the framework of Social Identity Theory(SIT)proposed by Tajfel and Turner(1979,2004).These crises marginalize,exclude and disempower certain groups and individuals in the society.A dual model of language programme is proposed for the Basic level of education to deal with these issues.

Dynamics of oil price shocks and stock market behavior in Pakistan:evidence from the 2007 financial crisis period

Background:The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the oil price and its volatility on the stock market of Pakistan before and after the 2007 financial crisis period.Methods:The analyses are carried out on daily data for the period from July 31,2000 to July 31,2014.This study uses several econometric techniques for the analyses,namely,the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test,generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(GARCH)model,exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(EGARCH)model,variance decomposition method,and impulse response function.Results:The results of the cointegration method indicate a significant long-run association between stock market and oil prices in the pre-crisis period.The EGARCH model shows that oil price returns have a significant effect on stock market returns in both sub-periods,while the result for the GARCH model is significant only in the postcrisis period.We find a significant effect of oil price volatility on the stock market in both sub-periods from the GARCH model.Furthermore,the EGARCH model shows an asymmetric effect of oil price volatility on the stock market in the pre-crisis period.Variance decomposition shows that stock market variations are mostly explained by selfinnovation.Moreover,the impulse response function results show that oil price shocks affected the stock market adversely in the pre-crisis period but positively in the postcrisis period.Conclusions:This study suggests that economic policymakers and investors should consider the oil price as an important factor affecting stock market returns.

Water evacuations in remote tourist regions: evaluating case studies from natural hazards in North Patagonian lakes, Argentina

The remote North Patagonian region is a sparsely populated territory and a world famous tourist destination located on the leeward side of the Andes Mountains. Recent disasters triggered by various types of geoenvironmental hazards(including volcanic eruptions, mass-wasting processes and extreme weather events) heavily disrupted ground transport networks in a region with already limited territorial accessibilities. All these catastrophes prompted the need to evacuate or assist a number of secluded visitors, locals and livestock extemporaneously on board of coastguards and tourist passenger-ships from the shores of the many glacial lakes that make up part of the regional attraction. Despite the recurrence of these types of events, water evacuations in the region continue to be spontaneous, improvised and hazardous procedures. This contribution reconstructs and assesses a number of recent local-scale cases of lake evacuations and assistances from a number of Patagonian urban centers, rural areas and tourist sites. For each case study, we systematically elaborated on the prime components of an evacuation process, which enabled us to recognize key achievements, failures and conditioning factors for managing emergencies via water transport, most of them inherent to the studied region. Some of the complexities to emerge from case studies referred to: complex hazard-related scenarios;limited ground-based accessibilities and risk of isolation;various inter-and intra-organizational issues, incidental to natural reserves and tourist regions;a wide range of particular demographic features;and the availability and vulnerability of water transport resources. We suggested fundamental and replicable recommendations for developing water evacuation plans, also identifying forthcoming problems to solve in order to improve the management of emergencies through this alternative means of transport.

An Econophysics Model of Financial Bubbles

Usually financial crises go along with bubbles in asset prices, such as the housing bubble in the US in 2007. This paper attempts to build a mathematical model of financial bubbles from an econophysics, and thus a new perspective. I find that agents identify bubbles only with a time delay. Furthermore, I demonstrate that the detection of bubbles is different on either the individual or collective point of view. Second, I utilize the findings for a new definition of asset bubbles in finance. Finally, I extend the model to the study of asset price dynamics with news. In conclusion, the model provides unique insights into the properties and developments of financial bubbles.

Encephalic hemodynamic phases in subarachnoid hemorrhage:how to improve the protective effect in patient prognoses

Subarachnoid hemorrhage is frequently associated with poor prognoses. Three different hemo- dynamic phases were identified during subarachnoid hemorrhage： oligemia, hyperemia, and vasospasm. Each phase is associated with brain metabolic changes. In this review, we correlated the hemodynamic phases with brain metabolism and potential treatment options in the hopes of improving patient prognoses.

Quality Models for Open, Flexible, and Online Learning

This article is based on research conducted for the European CommissionEducation & Training 2020 working group on digital and online learning(ET2020 WG-DOL) specifically regarding policy challenges, such as thefollowing: 1) Targeted policy guidance on innovative and open learningenvironments under outcome;2) Proposal for a quality assurance modelfor open and innovative learning environments, its impact on specificassessment frameworks and its implication for EU recognition and transparencyinstruments. The article aims to define quality in open, flexible,and online learning, particularly in open education, open educationalresources (OER), and massive open online courses (MOOC). Hence,quality domains, characteristics, and criteria are outlined and discussed,as well as how they contribute to quality and personal learning so thatlearners can orchestrate and take responsibility for their own learningpathways. An additional goal is to identify the major stakeholders directlyinvolved in open online education and to describe their visions, communalities,and conflicts regarding quality in open, flexible, and online learning.The article also focuses on quality in periods of crisis, such as duringthe pandemic in 2020. Finally, the article discusses the rationale and needfor a model of quality in open, flexible, and online learning based on threemajor criteria for quality: excellence, impact, and implementation fromthe learner’s perspective.

THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY IS THE KEY TO VIGOROUSLY DEVELOP THE FORESTRY

The forestry is the main department of the national economy. During forty years development of the forestry , it has made a lot of contribution for the national economic construction and society development. However, paying more attention to the logging than to the silviculture for a long time lead that the felling amount has been more than the growth in volume of forest. And the forest resources have much decreased. The forestry is now faced to many difficulties. The forestry problems should be tackled by relying on the progress of science and technology. The achievements of science and technology should be first spread in forest zone. And the second task is that the step of the progress of science and technology in forestry enterprises should be quicken. In order to raise the economic benefits of forestry enterprises. The key problems of science and technology in forestry should be tackled by cooperation. Raising, the level of forestry science and technology and enlarging the international exchange are the other important aspect of vigorously developing the forestry.