Based on the data of national monitoring points of air pollution control in Xining from 2015 to 2017,the air quality prediction of CUACE model in Xining was tested by using the method of national environmental meteoro...Based on the data of national monitoring points of air pollution control in Xining from 2015 to 2017,the air quality prediction of CUACE model in Xining was tested by using the method of national environmental meteorological numerical model prediction quality inspection and evaluation.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the CAUCE model for the primary pollutants in Xining region during 2015-2017 was generally higher in the winter half year,and the maximum appeared in November 2016.The prediction accuracy in 24,48 and 72 h was more than 70%.The prediction accuracy of the model in the summer half year was low.The primary pollutants in Xining area were PM_(10),PM_(2.5),O_(3),NO_(2) and CO.The prediction accuracy of PM_(10) was the highest,followed by PM_(2.5),while that of O 3 was the lowest.TS score of 24-hour forecast of light pollution was greater than 0 in the winter half year,and it was the highest in December when the unreported rate was also the highest;the empty report rate existed all year round,and was the highest from May to June.Forecast deviation was greater than 0 in the winter half year,and the maximum appeared in January.The 48-hour and 72-hour model forecast were consistent with the 24-hour forecast.The forecast effect of the model on sudden pollution weather was poor,and moderate pollution,severe pollution,and serious pollution weather occurred less frequently in Xining region,so there was fewer model forecast of this kind of pollution.Besides,among the 24-,48-and 72-hour forecast values of the model,there were many empty reports of this kind of pollution,and the empty report rate was high.展开更多
基金Supported by the Applied Basic Research Project of Department of Science and Technology of Qinghai Province(2018-ZJ-723)。
文摘Based on the data of national monitoring points of air pollution control in Xining from 2015 to 2017,the air quality prediction of CUACE model in Xining was tested by using the method of national environmental meteorological numerical model prediction quality inspection and evaluation.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the CAUCE model for the primary pollutants in Xining region during 2015-2017 was generally higher in the winter half year,and the maximum appeared in November 2016.The prediction accuracy in 24,48 and 72 h was more than 70%.The prediction accuracy of the model in the summer half year was low.The primary pollutants in Xining area were PM_(10),PM_(2.5),O_(3),NO_(2) and CO.The prediction accuracy of PM_(10) was the highest,followed by PM_(2.5),while that of O 3 was the lowest.TS score of 24-hour forecast of light pollution was greater than 0 in the winter half year,and it was the highest in December when the unreported rate was also the highest;the empty report rate existed all year round,and was the highest from May to June.Forecast deviation was greater than 0 in the winter half year,and the maximum appeared in January.The 48-hour and 72-hour model forecast were consistent with the 24-hour forecast.The forecast effect of the model on sudden pollution weather was poor,and moderate pollution,severe pollution,and serious pollution weather occurred less frequently in Xining region,so there was fewer model forecast of this kind of pollution.Besides,among the 24-,48-and 72-hour forecast values of the model,there were many empty reports of this kind of pollution,and the empty report rate was high.
