Dimensionality reduction model based on integer planning for the analysis of key indicators affecting life expectancy

Purpose:Exploring a dimensionality reduction model that can adeptly eliminate outliers and select the appropriate number of clusters is of profound theoretical and practical importance.Additionally,the interpretability of these models presents a persistent challenge.Design/methodology/approach:This paper proposes two innovative dimensionality reduction models based on integer programming(DRMBIP).These models assess compactness through the correlation of each indicator with its class center,while separation is evaluated by the correlation between different class centers.In contrast to DRMBIP-p,the DRMBIP-v considers the threshold parameter as a variable aiming to optimally balances both compactness and separation.Findings:This study,getting data from the Global Health Observatory(GHO),investigates 141 indicators that influence life expectancy.The findings reveal that DRMBIP-p effectively reduces the dimensionality of data,ensuring compactness.It also maintains compatibility with other models.Additionally,DRMBIP-v finds the optimal result,showing exceptional separation.Visualization of the results reveals that all classes have a high compactness.Research limitations:The DRMBIP-p requires the input of the correlation threshold parameter,which plays a pivotal role in the effectiveness of the final dimensionality reduction results.In the DRMBIP-v,modifying the threshold parameter to variable potentially emphasizes either separation or compactness.This necessitates an artificial adjustment to the overflow component within the objective function.Practical implications:The DRMBIP presented in this paper is adept at uncovering the primary geometric structures within high-dimensional indicators.Validated by life expectancy data,this paper demonstrates potential to assist data miners with the reduction of data dimensions.Originality/value:To our knowledge,this is the first time that integer programming has been used to build a dimensionality reduction model with indicator filtering.It not only has applications in life expectancy,but also has obvious advantages in data mining work that requires precise class centers.

Impact of Cardiovascular Disease Deaths on Life Expectancy in Chinese Population

Objective We aimed to analyze the impact of cardiovascular disease （CVD） deaths on life expectancy （LE） in Chinese population and estimate the percentage reduction in CVD mortality needed to increase LE by 1 year from the current level, a national target of health improvement. Methods We used life tables, cause-elimination life tables, and age decomposition of LE with corrected mortality data from the National Disease Surveillance System in 2010. Results LE at birth of Chinese people was 73.24 years in 2010. Women had a longer LE than men, and urban population had a longer LE than rural population. CVD deaths resulted in a 4.79-year LE loss and premature deaths in people aged 25 to 64 years were responsible for a substantial part of LE loss from CVD. Death from ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular diseases accounted for 69.2% of LE loss from CVD deaths and death from cerebrovascular diseases was the largest contributor. In rural men, 51.1% LE loss from CVD deaths was caused by cerebrovascular diseases. If there were no changes in mortality rates for all other diseases, a 27.4% reduction in CVD mortality would increase LE by i year in Chinese population. Conclusion There is a considerable impact of CVD deaths on LE. A 1-year LE increase in the future requires at least a 27.4% reduction in CVD mortality from the current level. Targeting the rural population and tackling cerebrovascular diseases are important for reaching the national goal of health improvement.

Evaluation of Impact of Major Causes of Death on Life Expectancy Changes in China,1990-2005

Objective To evaluate the impact of major causes of death on changes of life expectancy in China. Methods Life expectancy was calculated by standard life table techniques using mortality data from the national censuses in 1990 and 2000 and the 1% National Population Sampling Surveys in 1995 and 2005, Mortality data about the major causes of death from VR-MOH were used as reference values to estimate their death proportions of the specific age groups by sex and regions, as well as all-cause mortality and age-specific mortality rates of major causes of death. Decomposition method was used to quantitatively evaluate the impact. Results Three key findings were identified in our study. First, China's health challenge was shifted from diseases related to living conditions to those related to behavior and lifestyle, with rural areas relatively lagged behind urban areas, Second, the impacts of cardiovascular diseases and neoplasm on the middle aged and elderly population were stressed. Third, compared to the urban population, the rural population tended to have increasing mortality of neoplasm and cardiovascular diseases, especially in adults at the age of 15-39 years. Conclusion Further efforts should be made to reduce the incidence of neoplasm and cardiovascular diseases, especially in rural areas, by promoting healthy behavior and lifestyle and providing appropriate therapies for all patients in need.

Impact of Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality on Life Expectancy in China

Objective To evaluate the impact of cerebrovascular disease mortality on life expectancy （LE） in China in 2010 compared with 2005, and to identify the high-risk population （age, sex, and region） where cerebrovascular disease mortality has had a major impact on LE. Methods LE and cause-eliminated LE were calculated by using standard life tables which used adjusted mortality data from the Death Surveillance Data Sets in 2005 and 2010 from the National Disease Surveillance System. Decomposition was used to quantitate the impact of cerebrovascular disease in different age groups. Results LE in China was 73.24 years in 2010, which was higher in women and urban residents compared with men and rural residents. The loss of LE caused by cerebrovascular disease mortality was 2.26 years, which was higher in men and rural residents compared with women and urban residents. More than 30% of the loss of LE were attributed to premature death from cerebrovascular disease in people aged 〈65 years. Compared with 2005, LE in 2010 increased by 0.92 years. The reduction of cerebrovascular disease mortality in urban residents contributed 0.45 years to the increase of LE, but the increase of cerebrovascular disease mortality caused a 0.12-year loss of LE in rural residents. Conclusion Cerebrovascular disease mortality had a major impact on LE in China, with a significant difference between urban and rural residents. LE is likely to be further increased by reducing cerebrovascular disease mortality, and special attention should be paid to reducing premature deaths in people aged 〈65 years.

Nurse staffing and life expectancy at birth and at 65 years old:Evidence from 35 OECD countries

Objective: To measure the possible magnitude of the role nurse staffing has on increasing life expectancy at birth and at 65 years old.Methods: The statistical technique of panel data analysis was applied to investigate the relationship from the number of practicing nurses' density per 1000 population to life expectancy at birth and at 65 years old.Five control variables were used as the proxies for the levels of medical staffing,health care financial and physical resources,and medical technology.The observations of 35 member countries of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) were collected from OECD Health Statistics over 2000-2016 period.Results: There were meaningful relationships from nurse staffing to life expectancy at birth and at 65 years with the long-run elasticities of 0.02 and 0.08,respectively.Overall,the role of nursing characteristics in increasing life expectancy indicators varied among different health care systems of OECD countries and in average were determined at the highest level in Japan (0.25),followed by Iceland (0.24),Belgium (0.21),Czech Republic (0.21),Slovenia (0.20) and Sweden (0.18).Conclusion: A higher proportion of nursing staff is associated with higher life expectancy in OECD countries and the dependency of life expectancy to nursing staff would increase by aging.Hence,the findings of this study warn health policy makers about ignoring the effects nursing shortages create e.g.increasing the risk of actual age-specific mortality,especially in care of elderly people.

New Characteristics of Active Life Expectancy of the Elderly in China

Life expectancy of the elderly is a significant problem in China, and it changes not only the health care, but also the pension. This study used tracking data from the Chinese Urban and Rural Elderly Population Survey to calculate the age-specific Active Life Expectancy (ALE) of the Chinese elderly population aged 60 years and over. For analysis, this population was divided into different sub-populations according to gender, census register and region. The main conclusions of our study are as follows: 1) The quality of life for elderly males may be greater than that for elderly females;2) There were significant differences in Active Life Expectancy (ALE) and Inactive Life Expectancy (ILE) between urban and rural elderly;3) The differences in ALE between the eastern, central and western regions of China were not significant;and 4) The increased remaining life expectancy of the elderly was mainly attributed to the extended ALE in the lower age group and the expanded ILE in the higher age group. This study expands the knowledge of Chinese elderly’s life expectancy in different health status.

The Nationwide Impact of Injury-related Deaths on Average Life Expectancy in China

To expand the evidence base to inform future public policy aimed at accident prevention, we investigated the impact of different categories of injury on average life expectancy in China. We used data from the National Death Cause Registration Information System and National Maternity and Children Health Surveillance databases, as well as 2010 population data from the National Bureau of Statistics. We then calculated the average life expectancy of the Chinese population, in addition to life expectancy after eliminating injury-related mortality. The average life expectancy of the Chinese population in 2010 was 74.93 years. After eliminating deaths due to injuries, the fourth leading cause of mortality in China, average life expectancy increased by 1.36 years. When this was broken down by population sub-groups, these gains were 1.76 and 0.79 years in men and women, 0.94 and 1.56 years in urban and rural residents, and 1.11, 1.30, and 1.67 years for residents in the Eastern, Central and Western regions respectively. After eliminating all categories of injury, the average life expectancy of the Chinese population was found to increase by 1.36 years. This figure was higher for males and residents of rural areas and Western China.

Impact of Long-term Exposure to Air Particulate Matter on Life Expectancy and Survival Rate of Shanghai Residents

Objective To evaluate the impact of long-term air particulate matter exposure on the life expectancy and survival rate of Shanghai residents. Methods Epidemiology - based exposure-response function was used for the calculation of attributable deaths to air particulate matter in Shanghai, and the effect of long-term exposure to particulate matter on life expectancy and survival rate was estimated using the life table of Shanghai residents in 1999. Results It was shown that in 1999, the long-term air particulate matter exposure caused 1.34-1.69 years reduction of life expectancy and a decrease of survival rate for each age group of Shanghai residents. Conclusion The effect of long-term exposure to air particulate matter on life expectancy is substantial in Shanghai.

Sustaining Increase in Life Expectancy in Africa Requires Active Preventive Measures against Non-Communicable Diseases

It is projected that aged population (≥60 years) will continue to increase globally, including in Africa. This is due to reduced population growth, decreased fecundity and improved medical interventions;factors which increase life expectancy. While this is typical for developed countries, it is not the same for Africa and similar developing regions. In these regions, a significant proportion of death is due to non-communicable diseases (NCD’s) such as hypertension, cerebrovascular accident, coronary heart disease, diabetes mellitus, chronic renal disease and cancer, among others. Rising prevalence of NCD’s due mainly to western style diets and sedentary living is made worse by inadequate nutrition education, high prevalence of low birth weight, poor health services, lack of efficient tobacco control and deficient planning of built environment. In order to halt the possible reduction in life expectancy occasioned by NCD’s, efforts by the community, health planners and governments in Africa to address relevant NCD’s, must be put in place. Suggested measures are: nutrition education, regular community directed physical exercise, improved environmental planning and development. Others are review of present health service model, early detection, prevention and treatment of NCD’s, including improved antenatal care to reduce low birth weights, and establishment of policies and measures that decreased access to tobacco especially by women of childbearing age. Africa and similar developing regions cannot fund the health bill due to NCD’s and their complications;hence it is important that this scourge is attended to with all seriousness.

Key Social Determinants to Narrow the Gap between Health-adjusted Life Expectancy and Life Expectancy in Megacities

Objective Improvement in the quality of life is reflected in the narrowing of the gap between healthadjusted life expectancy(HALE)and life expectancy(LE).The effect of megacity expansion on narrowing the gap is rarely reported.This study aimed to disclose this potential relationship.Methods Annual life tables were constructed from identified death records and population counts from multiple administrative sources in Guangzhou,China,from 2010 to 2020.Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate the temporal trend.Generalized principal component analysis and multilevel models were applied to examine the county-level association between the gap and social determinants.Results Although LE and HALE in megacities are increasing steadily,their gap is widening.Socioeconomic and health services are guaranteed to narrow this gap.Increasing personal wealth,a growing number of newborns and healthy immigrants,high urbanization,and healthy aging have helped in narrowing this gap.Conclusion In megacities,parallel LE and HALE growth should be highly considered to narrow their gap.Multiple social determinants need to be integrated as a whole to formulate public health plans.

The Direction of Research on Active Aging and Healthy Life Expectancy in Japan

In Japan, 18.1% of the population known as baby-boomers will become the late-stage elderly in 2025, thereby needing a foundation to support this change. The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare is promoting the development of a regional comprehensive system allowing the elderly to continue living in their familiar surroundings. However, a care shortage is inevitable unless elders are able to age in good health, regardless of the system’s level of enhancement. This study aims to review the literature on active aging, clarify trends in clinical operations undertakings and research in Japan, and consider relevant research issues. After combining the search results of “active aging” and “healthy life expectancy,” we used a text mining technique to analyze the abstracts of 120 original articles and 213 reviews, commentaries, and features. Eight categories were extracted from the original articles: health statistics, gender, age, etc. From the reviews, commentaries, and features, 16 categories were extracted: orientation, disease, and living, etc. Cerebrovascular disease and osteoporosis were the most common diseases covered in the original articles;there has been a substantial amount of research on “active aging” and “healthy life expectancy” because they can easily lead to being bedridden and to a decrease in QOL. In the reviews, commentaries, and features, lifestyle-related diseases and menopause rather than cerebrovascular disease and osteoporosis, were extracted. The categorical differences found in the original articles may be due to the possibility that Japanese researchers are publishing their research abroad rather than in Japan or they submit research on topics that are guaranteed to be published at home or abroad. Little research has been conducted using the terms, “active aging” and “healthy life expectancy,” evidenced by the small number of studies generated. Preparations for 2025 will require an increase in the number of studies from the perspective of “active aging” and “healthy life expectancy.”

Prognostic Nutritional Index Predicts Life Expectancy of Patients with End-Stage Oral Cancer: A Retrospective Study

Background: Generally, clinicians do not accurately estimate life expec-tancy in terminally ill patients with cancer. Aim: To evaluate the value of the Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI) for accurately estimating the life expectancy of patients with end-stage oral cancer. Design: A longitudinal section study. Setting/participants: Fifteen patients (12 men;mean age: 71.7 years) who died of oral cancer between 2005 and 2014 (the terminal group) were included. The mean PNI values at the initial visit and at 3, 2, and 1 months before the deaths were comparatively analyzed. Results: The mean follow-up period was 133 days. At the initial examination, the PNI values were 49.1 ± 4.5 (p = 0.6723). The PNI value of the terminal group was 35.6 ± 5.1 at 2 months before death and 28.6 ± 3.0 at 1 month before death. The PNI values at 3, 2, and 1 months before death in the terminal group significantly differed from each other and from that at the initial visit and steadily decreased until death. Conclusions: Our findings suggest the utility of PNI as a prognostic index in patients with end-stage oral cancer patients. Furthermore, the PNI should be routinely considered in the nutritional management of patients with oral cancer nearing death.

Reduced Life Expectancy Model Analyses of Exposure Time Effects of Endocrine Disruptors to Teleost Fishes Based on Effect Concentration of Hepatic Biomarkers

In this current paper, the exposure time effects on four endocrine disruptors and teleost fishes were evaluated using the reduced life expectancy (RLE) model based on the effect concentration (EC50) of available literature published. The result on the regression analysis over different exposure times has demonstrated that the EC50 of hepatic biomarkers falls with increasing exposure times in a predictable manner. The slopes of the regression equations reflect the strength of the toxic effects on the various teleost fish. The EC50 reduction over time can be interpreted based on the bioconcentration process, which can be used to understand transfer routes of the compounds from water to fish body. RLE model also provides useful information in assessing the toxic effects on fish life expectancy as a result of the occurrence of compounds.

Progress in Research of Nutrition and Life Expectancy

Life expectancy is an important indicator to evaluate the social development of a country. Health and longevity can not only improve people＇s life quality but also ensure them to have more time to pursue their life goal. A one-year increase in life expectancy during ＇China＇s Twelfth Five-Year Economic and Social Development Plan＇ period has been used as an indicator to evaluate whether the goal of improving people＇s living standards continuously is met. Nutrition is one of the important factors affecting people＇s health. Both malnutrition and overnutrition are risk factors for disease and death. Many studies of the relationship between nutrition and life expectancy have been conducted in the world, and the results of them are quite valuable for China to improve people＇s life expectancy by targeted nutrition intervention strategy. This paper summarizes the progress in research of nutrition and life expectancy in the world.

Test of Ordered Multivariate Discrete Selection Model for Average Life Expectancy

At present, there are significant regional differences in average life expectancy among countries in the world. Not only is there a great disparity in average life expectancy, but also the gender difference is positive and negative, and is distributed in a bipolar distribution of “long life in rich countries and short life in poor countries”. This paper analyzes the factors affecting the life grade by using the ordered multivariate discrete selection model and combined with the average life expectancy data of countries all over the world in 2017. The test results show that: 1) The growth of per capita GDP, elderly dependency ratio and the proportion of people using at least basic drinking water services can effectively improve the level of life expectancy;2) The birth rate has an inhibitory effect on the average life expectancy;3) Through model comparison, probit model is more suitable for the analysis of this kind of problems than logit model, and the properties of the obtained model are better.

Fitness in the Park Physical exercise is widely believed to raise life expectancy

The Chinese live longer on average!That’s what I’ve often read in books or heard in documentaries about China.And there is a good reason for that,as the Chinese strive to do sports regularly while having a balanced diet.This is what I saw during my stay in Beijing,capital of China,where I have lived since the end of last February.

Dynamic prediction of landslide life expectancy using ensemble system incorporating classical prediction models and machine learning

With the development of landslide monitoring system,many attempts have been made to predict landslide failure-time utilizing monitoring data of displacements.Classical models(e.g.,Verhulst,GM(1,1),and Saito models)that consider the characteristics of landslide displacement to determine the failuretime have been investigated extensively.In practice,monitoring is continuously implemented with monitoring data-set updated,meaning that the predicted landslide life expectancy(i.e.,the lag between the predicted failure-time and time node at each instant of conducting the prediction)should be re-evaluated with time.This manner is termed“dynamic prediction”.However,the performances of the classical models have not been discussed in the context of the dynamic prediction yet.In this study,such performances are investigated firstly,and disadvantages of the classical models are then reported,incorporating the monitoring data from four real landslides.Subsequently,a more qualified ensemble model is proposed,where the individual classical models are integrated by machine learning(ML)-based meta-model.To evaluate the quality of the models under the dynamic prediction,a novel indicator termed“discredit index(b)”is proposed,and a higher value of b indicates lower prediction quality.It is found that Verhulst and Saito models would produce predicted results with significantly higher b,while GM(1,1)model would indicate results with the highest mean absolute error.Meanwhile,the ensemble models are found to be more accurate and qualified than the classical models.Here,the performance of decision tree regression-based ensemble model is the best among the various ML-based ensemble models.

积极英语阅读教程Life Expectations阅读课教学设计及总结——首届全国中小学英语阅读教学观摩活动

阅读教学是英语教学中的重要组成部分。2016年5月27日,旨在推动中国中小学阅读教育的科学实践以及英语课外阅读的推广和普及的全国英语阅读教学研究协作体在京主办了首届全国中小学英语阅读教学研讨会。笔者有幸在此活动中承担了一节阅读观摩课。在此次活动中,本节课为借班上课,教师在对阅读课堂教学实践进行尝试的同时,也应该对如何培养学生阅读策略和思维能力有所展示。

2015—2021年句容市居民死因分析

目的了解句容市居民主要死因及寿命损失情况,为制定慢性病防控政策提供科学依据。方法利用2015—2021年句容市居民人口数据和死因监测数据,分析粗死亡率、标化死亡率、死因顺位、构成比、期望寿命、去死因期望寿命、寿命损失值、年度变化百分比(APC)、潜在减寿年数(PYLL)、减寿率(PYLLR)和早死概率等指标以及变化趋势;预测句容市“健康中国2030”早死概率预测值与目标值实现情况。结果2015—2021年句容市平均粗死亡率为748.43/10万,平均标化死亡率为294.71/10万,标化死亡率呈逐年下降趋势(APC=-2.26%,t=85.33,P<0.05)。男性粗死亡率高于女性,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=53.40,P<0.05)。死因顺位前5位依次是恶性肿瘤、脑血管疾病、心脏病、伤害和呼吸系统疾病,占全死因87.15%。期望寿命由81.83岁增至82.76岁,男性由79.66岁增至80.68岁,女性由84.08岁增至84.92岁,总人群、男性、女性均呈上升趋势(APC分别为0.20%、0.21%、0.21%,t值为15.00~142.68,P值均<0.05)。7年间,去脑血管疾病、呼吸系统疾病、伤害的期望寿命分别由83.48、82.50、82.61岁增至84.20、83.16、83.96岁,均呈上升趋势(APC为0.18%~0.39%,t值为3.00~40.33,P值均<0.05);恶性肿瘤、脑血管疾病、呼吸系统疾病引起的寿命损失值呈下降趋势(APC分别为-2.82%、-2.99%、-7.69%),伤害引起的寿命损失值呈上升趋势(APC=7.33%),差异均有统计学意义(t值分别为8.33~48.09,P值均<0.05);四类重大慢性病总粗死亡率无明显变化趋势(APC=-0.18%,P>0.05);其中,慢阻肺粗死亡率呈逐年下降趋势(APC=-5.22%,t=16.52,P<0.05)。四类重大慢性病总标化死亡率(APC=-3.30%)和总早死概率(APC=-2.05%)呈均下降趋势(t=169.92、9.58,P值均<0.05)。预测2030年四类重大慢性病总早死概率为9.84%。2015—2021年句容市全死因PYLL为96864人年,全死因PYLLR为23.53‰,全死因和恶性肿瘤PYLL、PYLLR均呈逐年下降趋势(P值均<0.05)。结论2015—2021年句容市居民标化死亡率呈下降趋势,恶性肿瘤仍是主要死因,慢性病对句容市居民的期望寿命、潜在寿命和早死概率影响较大,伤害引起的寿命损失值呈上升趋势,应调整本地疾病防控策略。

1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的疾病负担分析及未来10年发病预测

目的了解1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病、患病、死亡情况及疾病负担情况,预测2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病情况,为评估和制定慢性阻塞性肺疾病相关预防治疗政策和措施提供数据支持。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担研究数据库(Global burden of disease study,GBD),研究分析1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的发病、患病、死亡、伤残调整寿命年(DALY)、早死寿命损失年(YLL)、伤残寿命损失年(YLD)等情况。采用贝叶斯-时期-队列分析(BAPC)方法,预测2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病率。结果相对于1990年,2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病粗患病率增长35.44%,标化患病率减少27.16%,粗发病率增长38.31%,标化发病率减少28.52%,粗死亡率减少30.59%,标化死亡率减少70.08%。1990-2019年中国人群因慢性阻塞性肺疾病导致的YLL率由3281.48/10万降至862.37/10万,YLD率由330.33/10万降至240.40/10万,DALY率由3611.81/10万降至1102.77/10万。2019年男性慢性阻塞性肺疾病DALY率相比于1990年降低66.56%,女性DALY率相比于1990年降低71.87%。2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病标化发病率预计呈下降趋势,2030年男性标化发病率预计比2020年降低31.97%,女性标化发病率预计比2020年降低27.69%。结论1990-2019年,慢性阻塞性肺疾病对中国人口造成的疾病负担总体呈下降趋势。但从患病情况和死亡情况来看,发病及死亡人数较多,中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的疾病负担仍处于较高水平。同时预测结果显示,未来10年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病标化发病率在下降,但是仍处于较高水平,因此进行早筛查、早预防和早治疗,及广泛开展慢阻肺相关知识普及,对于做好COPD疾病管理具有重要意义。