Is pass‑through of the exchange rate to restaurant and hotel prices asymmetric in the US?Role of monetary policy uncertainty

This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.

Research on the Impact of Market Concern for Real Estate Policy on Housing Prices: Evidence from Internet Search and Hedonic Price Theory

To avoid the effects of systemic financial risks caused by extreme fluctuations in housing price,the Chinese government has been exploring the most effective policies for regulating the housing market.Measuring the effect of real estate regulation policies has been a challenge for present studies.This study innovatively employs big data technology to obtain Internet search data(ISD)and construct market concern index(MCI)of policy,and hedonic price theory to construct hedonic price index(HPI)based on building area,age,ring number,and other hedonic variables.Then,the impact of market concerns for restrictive policy,monetary policy,fiscal policy,security policy,and administrative supervision policy on housing prices is evaluated.Moreover,compared with the common housing price index,the hedonic price index considers the heterogeneity of houses and could better reflect the changes in housing prices caused by market supply and demand.The results indicate that(1)a long-term interaction relationship exists between housing prices and market concerns for policy(MCP);(2)market concerns for restrictive policy and administrative supervision policy effectively restrain rising housing prices while those for monetary and fiscal policy have the opposite effect.The results could serve as a useful reference for governments aiming to stabilize their real estate markets.

Dynamic response pattern of gold prices to economic policy uncertainty

Based on a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility(TVP-SVAR-SV)model,the time-varying effects and country differences of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on gold prices from August 2006 to December 2017 were examined.The results show that the effects of global economic policy uncertainty(GEPU)shock on gold prices change over time.The changes were positive during 2006-2008 and 2013-2017,while the impacts were negative during 2009-2012,implying that the efficiency of gold as a safe haven is not stable and depends on economic conditions.There are significant country differences regarding the impact of EPU on the price of gold,particularly during the international financial crisis,European debt crisis and Trump election.During the international financial crisis,EPU exerts a positive impact on gold prices in most countries.During the European debt crisis,the impact of EPU on gold prices is mainly negative in the examined countries.While during the Trump election,the impact displays positive and negative alternating in most countries.

Optimal Price Strategy under Price-Matching Policy

The paper explores the optimal price strategy under the price-matching policy. First, the paper formulates the demand function under the price match policy and then discovers the retailer’s best response facing the price-matching pressure. From the theoretical analysis, we discover how the number of retailers plays an important role during the competition. When only two retailers are involved, the final prices may not converge to a single value. However, when more retailers are involved, the final price will converge to a single value. We also use numerical studies to illuminate the change of the prices over the time period, the sensitivity of the final price to the increment/decrement of initial prices. Finally, we provide managerial suggestions to both producers and retailers.

The Interactions among Housing Price, Inflation and Monetary Policy in China： Facts and Implications

As a transition economy, China has unique characteristics regarding housing price, inflation and monetary policies. In addition to supply and demand powers, China＇s housing price is affected by demographic structure, fiscal system and land supply system. Using China＇s statistics from 2005 to 2011, this paper found empirically that （1） liquidity has a significant impact on China＇s housing prices and inflation; （2） China＇s negative real interest rate has pushed up housing price; （3） price-related instrument of monetary policy can curb housing price and is more effective than control of money supply.

Evaluating the effect of price and non-price policy intervention on rice cultivation in Sierra Leone: A supply response model approach

Rice is the main food for over 95 percent of the Sierra Leonean populace. It accounts for the largest portion of the agricultural GDP of the country. On the contrary, its cultivation has been shrinking over the past decades. Consequently, importation now becomes the main source of supplying the grain for local needs since its cultivation or production could no longer meet domestic request. The deterioration in the local cultivation of rice has had severe socio-economic implications such as higher consumer prices and balance of payment burden. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of price and other related nonprice policy intervention on rice cultivation in the country. The tools utilized for analyzing the problem comprise, a coefficient of protection analysis as well as a supply response analysis by means of a time series regression (for the period 1980-2011). Major limitations established negatively affecting rice output are price disincentives to cultivators, public expenditure and fertilizer consumption. From the above findings, rice cultivators should be accorded the necessary incentives to keep them more effective in the rice cultivation career. The food policy approach that had over the years depended on huge importation of rice should be reviewed in favor of domestic cultivation. Increasing local cultivation through a meaningful protection of cultivators can independently reduce the price of rice to the advantage of the final consumers. This study also recommends that public funds should be redirected away from rice import toward investments in its domestic cultivation.

Establishment of Grain Farmers' Supply Response Model and Empirical Analysis under Minimum Grain Purchase Price Policy

Based on farmers' supply behavior theory and price expectations theory,this paper establishes grain farmers' supply response model of two major grain varieties (early indica rice and mixed wheat) in the major producing areas,to test whether the minimum grain purchase price policy can have price-oriented effect on grain production and supply in the major producing areas. Empirical analysis shows that the minimum purchase price published annually by the government has significant positive impact on farmers' grain supply in the major grain producing areas. In recent years,China steadily raises the level of minimum grain purchase price,which has played an important role in effectively protecting grain farmers' interests,mobilizing the enthusiasm of farmers' grain production,and ensuring the market supply of key grain varieties.

Containing the rising cost of insulin: select policy recommendations

Diabetes is a chronic disease that affects over 30 million people in the United States.Of these,approximately 7.4 million use one or more formulations of insulin to manage their condition.There is a significant financial burden on diabetic individuals,as the price of insulin keeps increasing each year.Such consistent and drastic increases in the price of insulin are due to the complexities in the insulin supply chain,pricing mechanisms particularly due to pharmacy benefit managers(PBMs),and the dominance of a few insulin manufacturers in the market.This policy analysis has been undertaken independently and is based on information from peer-reviewed journals,government organizations and agencies,and credible news sources.Politicians and various stakeholders in the supply chain have made several policy recommendations on the pricing of insulin.From the data and information collected,we suggest basing a patient's co-payment on the net price instead of the list price of insulin,and that there should be real-time transparency in the negotiations between PBMs and pharmaceutical companies on rebates.

Exploring the Relationship Between Policy and Media: A Case Study of Road Pricing in the Netherlands

THE ROLE AND INFLUENCE OF MASS MEDIA IN PEOPLE’S LIVES HAVE ALWAYS BEEN A TOPIC OF CONCERN TO EVERYONE.IN THE FIELD OF MEDIA RESEARCH,THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE MEDIA AND POLITICS HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE SUBJECT OF DISCUSSION AND RESEARCH BY SCHOLARS.THIS STUDY MAINLY USES THE NETHERLANDS ROAD PRICING POLICY AS A CASE TO EXPLORE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MEDIA AND POLITICS IN POLITICAL ACTIVITIES BY RESEARCHING THE CHANGES AND INFLUENCES OF THE MEDIA IN THIS POLITICAL ACTIVITY.THIS PAPER MAINLY SELECTS THE CHANGES AND INFLUENCES OF THE DUTCH MEDIA IN TWO MAJOR ROAD PRICING POLICY ACTIVITIES DURING THE 12 YEARS FROM 1998 TO 2010 THROUGH LITERATURE RESEARCH AND OTHER METHODS.IN THIS WAY,IT CAN EXPLORE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MEDIA AND POLITICS.

On the Transmission Mechanism of the Chinese Land Policy in Macroeconomic-control: A Theoretical Study Based on Modified IS-LM Model

The purposes of this paper are to bring land factor into the general fame of national product and develop a new modified‘IS-LM equilibrium model',aiming to find out the impacts of land factor on the effective allocation of capital between total supply and total demand constituting gross national product,to analyze the relation mechanism among land factor and macroeconomic variables,and to discuss the theoretical mechanism under which land,fiscal and monetary policy are integrated. Methods employed include econometrics and model analysis. The results indicate that:( i) on the conditions that the equilibrium of supply and demand in land market,the modified IS-LM model taking into account land factor successfully performs transmission mechanism of land policy participation in macroeconomic-control by means of money capital regulation;( ii) the direction and intensity of land policy control are effected by elasticity of land supply and land price,meanwhile different characteristics of land supply elasticity exit in different stages of economic development;( iii) the realization of IS-LM equilibrium requires the aggregate effects of fiscal,monetary and land policy. It is concluded that land policies for macroeconomic-control drives land price higher,and land supply regulation would diminish financial effect. During the economic expansion or recovery period,the effect of expansionary land policy would be counteracted by high land price. During the economic transition or recession period,the government could control economical operation better through tightening land policy.

Global Spillovers of China's Monetary Policy

Spillovers from China's monetary policy have become increasingly obvious with China's growing importance in the global economy and its close economic and trade ties with the world.This study establishes a proxy structure vector autoregression model to investigate the magnitude and transmission channel of spillovers from China to global and regional economies,taking advantage of high-frequency changes in asset prices in the financial markets to identify monetary policy shocks.The analysis reveals that China's monetary policy can affect the global economy by influencing international trade and commodity prices but there is no evidence of China's monetary policy affecting global financial variables.Tightness in China's monetary policy can cause a decline in world output whereas expansion in monetary policy can support global trade and output.This study also finds that the response of emerging Asian economies to China's monetary policy shock was nearly twice that of developed economies,while the transmission path did not change.The results of this study are consistent with the stylized fact that China's monetary policy plays an important role in the global trade and commodity cycle,although it does not drive the global financial cycle.

Excess Liquidity,Housing Price Booms and Policy Challenges in China

Incorporating asymmetric cost and benefit of supplying excess liquidity into an otherwise standard time inconsistency model this paper offers an explanation of the excess liquidity and housing price booms recently experienced in China. We find that the central bank＇s incentive to stimulate eeonomie growth with excess liquidity fuels real estate prices and accelerates inflation bias. Therefore, the central bank should free itself from the pressure to achieve an economic growth rate higher than the potential level and assign an appropriate weight to the real estate price fluctuations in the central bank＇s objective function, so that the central bank ＂s policy of stimulating economic growth with excess liquidity can be constrained.

Different Types of Monetary Policy Instruments and Regional Housing Prices:A Comparative Study on the Influences of Regulation in China

Using system clustering method to group China's provinces into 3 new groups according to their housing prices, then establishing a state-space model and applying the Kalman filter calculation, we made a comparative analysis of the influences of different types of monetary policy instruments towards different regional housing prices. The empirical results show that both the quantitative instruments represented by M2 and the pricing instruments represented by real interest rate have increasing influences on different regional housing prices,but the former influence is much stronger than the latter. The influential differences of quantitative instruments to regional housing prices are much greater. It means the higher the regional housing price is, the greater the influence is. Therefore, the central bank shall optimize the combination of monetary policy instruments according to the above characteristics of different types of monetary policy instruments in order to acquire the regulatory target of real estate market.

Decline of oil prices and the negative interest rate policy in Japan

In April 2013,the Bank of Japan(BOJ)introduced an inflation target of 2%with the aim of overcoming deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth.But due to lower international oil prices it was unable to achieve this target and was forced to take further measures.Hence,in February 2016,the BOJ adopted a negative interest rate policy by massively increasing the money supply through the purchase of long-term Japanese government bonds(JGB).The BOJ had previously only purchased short-term government bonds,a policy that flattened the yield curve of JGBs.On the one hand,banks reduced the number of government bonds they purchased because short-term bond yields had become negative.The interest rates of long-term government bond up to 15 years even became negative.On the other hand,bank loans to corporates did not increase,due to Japanese economy’s vertical investment-saving(IS)curve.The purpose of this paper is to show that the monetary policy through implementation of the zero interest rate and more recently through the negative interest rate could not help the Japanese economy to recover from the long-lasting recession and these are not the remedy.It is of key importance to make the IS curve downward rather than vertical.That means the rate of return on investment must be positive and companies must be willing to invest even if interest rates are set too low.Japan’s long-term recession is due to structural problems that cannot be solved by its current monetary policy.The paper also explains why the BOJ has to reduce its 2%inflation target in the present low oil price era.

SIMULATION OF INVENTORY POLICY FOR PRODUCT WITH PRICE AND TIME-DEPENDENT DEMAND FOR DETERIORATING ITEM

In a declining market for goods,we optimize the net profit in business when inventory management allows change in the selling prices n times over time horizon.We are computing optimal number of changes in prices,respective optimal prices,and optimal profit in each of the cycle for a deteriorating product.This paper theoretically proves that for any business setup there exists an optimal number of price settings for obtaining maximum profit.Theoretical results are supported by numerical examples for different setups(data set)and it is found that for every setup the dynamic pricing policy out-performs the static pricing policy.In our model,the deterioration factor has been taken into consideration.The deteriorated units are determined by the recurrence method.Also we studied the effect of different parameters on optimal policy with simulation.For managerial purposes,we have provided some“suggested intervals”for choosing parameters depending upon initial demand,which help to predict the best prices and arrival of customers(demand).

The effects of industrial policymaking on the economics of low-emission technologies: the TRANSid model

Basic materials such as steel,cement,aluminium,and(petro)chemicals are the building blocks of industrialised societies.However,their production is extremely energy and emission intensive,and these industries need to decarbonise their emissions over the next decades to keep global warming at least below 2°C.Low-emission industrial-scale production processes are not commercially available for any of these basic materials and require policy support to ensure their large-scale diffusion over the upcoming decades.The novel transition to industry decarbonisation(TRANSid)model analyses the framework conditions that enable large-scale investment decisions in climate-friendly basic material options.We present a simplified case study of the cement sector to demonstrate the process by which the model optimises investment and operational costs in carbon capture technology by 2050.Furthermore,we demonstrate that extending the model to other sectors allows for the analysis of industry-and sector-specific policy options.

Does a national industrial policy promote financial market stability?A study based on stock price crash risk

Whether the implementation of a national industrial policy can maintain stability in the financial market is a question of theoretical and practical significance. Using data from China’s non-financial listed firms from 2007 to 2020,we find that a national industrial policy lowers stock price crash risk. We find that the effect of an industrial policy on lowering stock price crash risk is more pronounced in regions with low levels of regional marketization and if firms have high external uncertainty, low total asset turnover, greater earnings management and receive small increments of long-term loans and fewer government subsidies, suggesting that industrial policies lower stock price crash risk by improving firm fundamentals and reducing external uncertainty,agency costs and information asymmetry.

Optimal strategies of automakers with demand and credit price disruptions under the dual-credit policy

In this paper,a production and pricing decision model for automakers under the dual-credit policy is formulated.Then,with consideration of demand and credit price disruptions,a nonlinear programming model that maximizes automakers’profit and constrains the production of fuel vehicles(FVs)and new energy vehicles(NEVs)is investigated.Furthermore,four strategies that involve adjusting the production or price of FVs and NEVs are proposed,and four optimal solutions for each strategy are obtained.Finally,16 scenarios are comprehensively analyzed,and a case study involving demand and credit price disruptions is conducted.The results show that the dual-credit policy has a positive impact on the development of NEVs,especially in early stages of NEV development.The FV credit coefficient has a significantly positive impact on the probability of automakers adopting adjustment strategies,while the NEV credit coefficient has almost no such impact.Moreover,automakers are inclined to adjust the prices of NEVs or the production of FVs to cope with demand and credit price disruptions.

Effects of scenario-based carbon pricing policies on China's dual climate change mitigation goals: Does policy design matter?

Although the carbon pricing policy is a critical driving factor that will help China achieve economic growth,energy transition,and dual climate change mitigation goals,the kind of carbon pricing policy that will complement the country's current development situation remains controversial.We apply the World Induced Technical Change Hybrid(WITCH)model to explore the heterogeneity and synergy of different carbon pricing policies,and the results indicate that it will be challenging to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.The study find that the combined policy-a mix of carbon tax and carbon market policies--has the optimal emission reduction effect but comes with the highest economic cost,proving to be unsuitable in the long run.The carbon tax policy is an important transitional means to assist in emission reduction,which can serve as an important supplement to carbon market policy and be phased out after the market mechanism matures.

Effects of drug purchasing under joint price caps policy in Fujian Province,China

To evaluate the long-term effect of Drug Purchasing under Joint Price Caps Policy in Fujian Province on price,prescription volume,medical insurance expense and patient’s burden a total of 59968 reimbursement records,during the period of 2012.1-2018.8,were processed into monthly data and analyzed through interrupted time series(ITS)regression models.The ITS analysis showed that after the implementation of the policy,(1)the price of competitive drugs was significantly increased by 128.9%(P<0.01),while the price of non-competitive drugs was significantly decreased by 18.9%(P<0.01).(2)The prescription volume of sample drugs was decreased by 32.3%(P<0.01),and that of competitive drugs was decreased by 45.9%(P<0.01),while that of non-competitive drugs was increased by 19.1%(P<0.01).(3)There was no significant change in the monthly medical insurance expense per capita of sample drugs.(4)There was no significant effect on the overall patient’s burden,while the out-of-pocket payment per capita of competitive drugs was increased by 81.4%(P<0.01).