Capital flows, economic growth and the real effective exchange rate: Evidence from China

This paper examines the Granger causal relationship between capital flows and economic growth in China over the period 1998Q1–2019Q2,allowing for real effective exchange rate(REER)effects.As parameter instability tests indicate structural changes,we use bootstrap rolling window causality tests,which suggest that the causal nexus between capital flows and GDP growth is time-varying.We find that the causal links between foreign direct investments(FDIs)and GDP growth are hardly affected by the REER,whereas the REER plays a more important role in affecting the causal connections between portfolio investments and other investments and GDP growth.Our results suggest that cumulative portfolio inflows and cumulative other investment inflows harm GDP growth,whereas cumulative portfolio outflows and cumula-tive other investment outflows positively affect GDP growth.

Global Risk Appetite,US Economic Policy Uncertainties and Cross-Border Capital Flow

Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capital flow for emerging economies.Our study led to the following findings:(1)When the level of global investor risk tolerance is high,rising US EPU will induce a capital inflow into emerging economies,as manifested in the“portfolio rebalancing effect.”When the level of global investor risk tolerance is below a critical threshold,this gives rise to risk aversion and emerging economies will experience net capital outflow,i.e.the“flight to quality effect”.(2)Equity fund investors have a lower risk tolerance threshold than bond fund investors.(3)According to our heterogeneity analysis,more attention should be paid to monitoring capital flow through actively managed funds,ETF funds,and retail investor funds.The economy should increase financial efficiency and economic resiliency to mitigate capital outflow pressures from the external environment.

Examination and Interpretation of the Quantitative Validity in China’s Corporate-based Urban Network Analysis

As a matter of expediency, most existing corporate-based urban networks can only be quantitatively measured by either counting the number of linkages or calculating the product of estimated service values. However, the impreciseness arising due to the limits of quantitative analysis may prove fatal to studies about non-market economies like China. Employing the capital investment dataset as an example, we build a capital-weighted intervention network as well as an unweighted control network to carry out an examination of the quantitative validity in China’s corporate-based urban network analysis. Both the overall spatial pattern and top city-dyads within the capital-weighted network witness Beijing, as the most dominant city, overshadow the performance of the others, and the unweighted network shows multilateral interactions between China’s top cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou. To further interpret the noticeable differences, we divide the overall network into two subnetworks, inferred by focusing on state-owned enterprises(SOEs) and private enterprises. The results show that the public and private sectors have separately created vastly different subnetworks in China and that SOEs play a much more significant role in terms of capital. Besides fresh insights into China’s urban network, this study provides a cautionary tale reminding researchers of the essentiality and complexity when making a quantitative distinction between different linkages.

Chinese Policy Options on International Capital Flow after WTO Accession

I. IntroductionThere have been numerous studies on free capital mobility, its management and impact on developing countries’ economy during the past decades. International capital flows create opportunities for portfolio diversification and risk sharing. In classical cases, capital mobility permits a more efficient global allocation of savings and directs resources toward their most productive uses (Fischer, 1998, etc.). However,

The Personnel Earthquake Continuum： Consequences of Collective Turnover--A Case Study of Qidian Founders＇ Collective Turnover

Unlike previous studies that have primarily focused on the causes and processes, this research emphasizes the consequences of collective turnover. Starting from a literature review, we use event chains to explore the consequences of collective turnover. Based on the case study of the Qidian founders＇ collective turnover, we build a holistic theoretical framework to show the dynamics and continuity over time, influenced by the complexity of context. Our main conclusions are as follows： （1） collective turnover has a cascade effect, causing a series of secondary and derivative events, （2） collective turnover has both proximal and distal impacts on human capital flow, operational performance and financial performance, （3） whether or not a collective turnover has a positive or negative effect depends on the context factors. An event chain perspective that extends collective turnover theory and organizational behavior theory is used. We advocate for an integrate understanding of the consequences of collective tumover. In addition, this research will provide practical, instructive policies to intervene in collective turnover.