Scenario analysis of the Indonesia carbon tax impact on carbon emissions using system dynamics modeling and STIRPAT model

This study aims to develop a system dynamic(SD)forecasting model based on the STIRPAT model to forecast the effect of an IDR 30 per kg CO_(2)e carbon tax on carbon emissions,estimate future carbon emissions under ten scenarios,without and with the carbon tax,and estimate the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)to predict Indonesia’s carbon emission peak.Carbon emission drivers in this study are decomposed into several factors,namely energy structure,energy intensity,industrial structure,GDP per capita,population,and fixed-asset investment.This study included nuclear power utilization starting in 2038.The research gaps addressed by this study compared to previous research are(1)use of the ex-ante approach,(2)inclusion of nuclear power plants,(3)testing the EKC hypothesis,and(4)contribution to government policy.The simulation results show that under the carbon tax,carbon emissions can be reduced by improving renewable energy structures,adjusting industrial structures to green businesses,and emphasizing fixed asset investment more environmentally friendly.Moreover,the result approved the EKC hypothesis.It shows an inverse U-shaped curve between GDP per capita and CO_(2)emissions in Indonesia.Indonesia’s fastest carbon emission peak is under scenario seven and is expected in 2040.Although an IDR 30 per kg CO_(2)e carbon tax and nuclear power will take decades to reduce carbon emissions,the carbon tax can still be a reference and has advantages to implement.This result can be a good beginning step for Indonesia,which has yet to gain experience with a carbon tax that can be implemented immediately and is helpful to decision-makers in putting into practice sensible measures to attain Indonesia’s carbon emission peaking.This research provides actionable insights internationally on carbon tax policies,nuclear energy adoption,EKC dynamics,global policy implications,and fostering international cooperation for carbon emission reductions.

Impacts of Carbon Tax Policy on CO_2 Mitigation and Economic Growth in China

In this paper we examine the impacts of carbon tax policy on CO2 mitigation effects and economic growth in China by using a dynamic energy-environment-economy computable general equilibrium （CGE） model. The results show that 30, 60, and 90 RMB per ton CO2 of carbon tax rate will lead to a reduction of CO2 emissions by 4.52%, 8.59%, and 12.26%, as well as a decline in the GDP by 0.11%, 0.25%, and 0.39% in 2020, respectively, if carbon tax revenues are collected by the government. Moreover, with energy efficiency improvements the CO2 emission per unit of GDP will equally drop by 34.79%, 37.49%, and 39.92% in 2020, respectively. Negative impacts on sectors and households will be alleviated if carbon tax revenues are returned to these sectors and households.

Research on the Export Trade of Hubei Province from the Perspective of a Carbon Tax

With the global concern about the safety of the environment and the increasing demands for carbon reduction, European countries have proposed to levy a carbon tax to reduce global carbon emissions. In the process of global trade, depending on advanced technology on carbon emissions, European and American countries raise the production cost of their competitors through a carbon tax to gain competitive advantage. The West＇s carbon tax will inevitably have serious implications for the export trade of China as a trading nation. As the central region, Hubei Province＇s export trade will also be affected. This paper first reviewed the background of carbon tariffs on the international market, then analyzed the impact of a carbon tax on exports of Hubei Province, and proposed relevant policies and countermeasures against trade barriers on a carbon tax at last.

Conflict and Coordination Problem of Carbon Tax' Diversity Targets in China-Based on the Tax Optimization Theory

Among all the emission reduction measures,carbon tax is recognized as the most effective way to protect our climate.That is why the Chinese government has recently taken it as a tax reform direction.In the current economic analysis,the design of carbon tax is mostly based on the target to maximize the efficiency.However,based on the theory of tax system optimization,we should also consider other policy objectives,such as equity,revenue and cost,and then balance different objectives to achieve the suboptimum reform of carbon tax system in China.

CGE Simulation for Levying Carbon Tax in China and International Experience of Levying Carbon Tax

Levying carbon tax is conducive to reducing carbon dioxide emissions and protecting the environment.The author firstly reviewed some relevant empirical studies on carbon tax both home and abroad,and then established the CGE model and simulated levying carbon tax in China.The study found that levying carbon tax would have little impact on China's economy:in a short-term,China's GDP might decrease by 0.51%,while in a long-term it might decrease by 0.08%;however,the carbon dioxide emissions would be substantially reduced.Meanwhile,levying carbon tax has some negative impact on the output of each industry in the very economic structure;of this,the mineral extractive industries would be influenced the most.Then the author summarized experience of levying carbon tax in foreign countries.

Modified Ramsey Rule, Optimal Carbon Tax and Economic Growth

In contrast to the overlapping-generations model, it is allowable to discount the future utility in a dynasty model without the ethical difficulty related to intergenerational conflicts. Much precedent research uses Ramsey-type optimal growth theory in order to estimate the social discount rate. However, one must note that almost all the formulations neglect the existence of negative intertemporal externalities. This problem is vital when one analyzes the global warming problem mainly caused by the excess concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2). This is because an adjoining effect of capital accumulation exists besides the improvement of product capacity, which is reflected in the rate of interest (or equivalently, the marginal productivity of capital). That is, one cannot neglect a negative externality to the future productivity that originates from the excess emissions of CO2. Accordingly, following the optimal growth theory, the effective social discount rate should be heightened by a proportional carbon tax to suppress future excess consumption/ emissions than in the case of the existing analyses, which exclude such an intertemporal external diseconomy.

Dynamic decision and its complex dynamics analysis of low-carbon supply chain considering risk-aversion under carbon tax policy

This study establishes a low-carbon supply chain game model under the centralized decision situation and the decentralized decision situation considering the manufacturer risk-aversion behavior, and discusses the influence of the manufacturer risk-aversion behavior on the optimal decision, profit, coordination, and complex dynamics of the supply chain. We find that comparing with the risk-neutral decentralized decision, the increase of manufacturer's risk tolerance attitude can narrow the gap between the supply chain profit and the centralized decision, but it will further reduce the carbon emission reduction level. The increase of risk tolerance of the manufacturer and carbon tax will narrow the stable region of the system. Under this situation, the manufacturer should carefully adjust parameters to prevent the system from losing stability,especially the adjustment parameters for carbon emission reduction level. When the system is in a chaotic state, the increase of carbon tax rate makes the system show more complex dynamic characteristics. Under the chaotic state, it is difficult for the manufacturer to make correct price decision and carbon emission reduction strategy for the next period, which damages its profit, but increases the profit of the retailer and the supply chain. Finally, the carbon emission reduction cost-sharing contract is proposed to improve the carbon emission reduction level and the supply chain efficiency, achieving Pareto improvement. The stability region of the system is larger than that in the centralized decision situation, but the increase of the cost sharing coefficient will reduce the stability of the system in the decentralized decision-making situation.

Fairness in Climate Change Mitigation: The Case of Carbon Taxation

Environmental economists have advocated carbon taxation for its efficiency and effectiveness in reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Yet, whether the policy would be fair in any given context needs to be better realized. While the distributive effects of carbon taxation have been widely discussed, a more comprehensive understanding of tax fairness is lacking. This paper reviews the academic literature through the lens of three justice concepts -recognition, procedure, and distribution—to understand the implications of previous studies for fair carbon tax policy-making. Upon examining the relevant literature, the findings highlight the limited evidence concerning recognition and procedural justice in carbon taxation, particularly in developing country context. This calls for more assessments through these perspectives. It also emphasizes the importance of recognition for vulnerable groups, such as women, with an intersectionality approach;a fair policy process through information provision, inclusive representation, fair level playing field;and proportionate burden sharing through context-specific design elements such as targeted revenue use.

Reliability of Power System Integrated with Wind Generation Considering Carbon Tax

This paper proposes a method to evaluate the reliability of power system with different capacities of wind power while considering carbon tax. The proposed method is a hybrid approach which combines Frequency and Duration (F&D) method and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method. MCS method is used to achieve a model to simulate the random status of power system. Also, the proposed method is applied on the IEEE 14-bus test system to investigate the effects of integrating different capacities of wind energy to the reliability of power system with considering carbon tax.

Brief Talk on China＇s Carbon Tax System-Based on Lowcarbon Thermal Power Project

China has surpassed America and became the biggest greenhouse gases emission country in the world in 2008.1t is an urgent need for China to actively respond to climate change and promote energy conservation.This paper bases on the above facts, studies the carbon tax, which is an effective policy, designs an carbon tax system for China and analyzes the advantages of carbon tax, thus providing some reference for promoting the development of low-carbon thermal power project.

Estimating the Effect of Carbon Tax on CO₂Emissions of Coal in China

Using the co-integration model and the VAR model, this article estimates the effect of carbon taxes on CO2 emissions of coal in 2020. The estimation for the long-run price elasticity of coal in China is –0.34, which shows more elasticity than those of previous studies. The main reason lies in the fact that none of the previous studies considered the structural breaks of Chinese energy consumption in 2006. The levy of 100RMB, 150RMB and 200RMB on per ton of standard coal from 2012 in China will decrease the consumption of coal by 4.88%, 7.31% and 9.75% respectively in 2020, which will further lead to the decrease of CO2 emissions in 2020 by 8.69%, 13.02% and 17.36% respectively. This observation implies that the use of carbon tax scheme is one of the most practical policies that can mitigate the challenge of climate change. However, the implementation measures should be deliberately designed in such a way that making heavy impact on economic development of China is avoided.

Optimal Generator Portfolio in Day-Ahead Market under Uncertain Carbon Tax Policy

The global liberalization of energy market and the evolving carbon policy have profound implication on a producer’s optimal generator portfolio problem. On one hand, the daily operational flexibility from a well- composed generator portfolio enables the producer to implement a more aggressive bidding strategy in the liberalized day-ahead market on a daily basis;on the other hand, the evolving carbon policy demands the long term robustness of a generator portfolio: it should be able to generate stable cash flow under different stages of the evolving carbon tax policy. It is computationally very challenging to incorporate the daily bidding strategy into such a long term generator portfolio study. We overcome the difficulty by a powerful vertical decomposition. The long term uncertainty of carbon tax policy is simulated by scenarios;while the daily electricity price fluctuation with jumps is modeled by a more complicated Markov Regime Switching model. The proposed model provides the senior executives an efficient quantitative tool to select an optimal generator portfolio in the deregulated market under evolving carbon tax policy.

A hybrid trade-old-for-new and trade-old-for-remanufactured supply chain with carbon tax

Facing serious environmental problems,governments and manufacturers are taking action to reduce carbon emissions.Among these endeavors,carbon tax policy are widely adopted by governments,and trade-old-for-new(TON)and trade-old-for-remanufactured(TOR)are offered by manufacturers and subsidized by governments.To explore the effects of remanufacturer competition and carbon tax on the manufacturer’s TON and TOR decisions and the environment,we formulate three profit maximization models and present some theoretical and numerical analyses.The results show that,under the remanufacturer competition and carbon tax,the manufacturer’s optimal price and production decisions mainly depend on consumer willingness and carbon tax rate.A higher consumer willingness to manufacturer’s remanufactured products will decrease the demand for the manufacturer’s TON,but it always increases the demand for the manufacturer’s TOR.A higher consumer willingness to remanufacturer’s products will not affect the demand for the manufacturer’s TON;however,it will reduce the demand for manufacturer’s TOR.In addition,we find that a higher carbon tax rate always reduces total carbon emission reduction,and that it may increase the manufacturer’s profit due to the increase in TOR demand.

The impact of green finance,eco-innovation,renewable energy and carbon taxes on CO_(2) emissions in BRICS countries:Evidence from CS ARDL estimation

A sharp increase in economic and human development has multiplied the carbon intensity due to which there is a significant need of effective strategies in order to curb carbon emissions.Thus,the present study aims to examine the effective of green finance,eco-innovation,renewable energy output(REO),renewable energy consumption(REC),and carbon taxes on carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions in BRICS countries in the time of 2001-2020.Cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag(CS ARDL)is used to test the connection among the variables.Empirical estimations of CS-ARDL approach validates the effectiveness of green finance,eco-innovation,REO,REC,carbon taxes,and industrialization as the relationship of these factors with carbon emissions is negative in nature in BRICS economies.Based on the evidences,the study recommends the formulation of environmentally friendly practices and advancement in green finances to mitigate carbon emissions.

Cost Allocation for Inventory Problem with Transportation Discount under Carbon Tax Policy

In this paper,we deal with the problem of cost allocation among multiple retailers in an inventory system with transportation quantity discount under the widely-used carbon tax regulation.We first develop an inventory model with transportation discount under the carbon tax policy,and determine the optimal order quantity per order such that the total cost is minimized in the case of individual and joint ordering.We show that the total cost for the group of retailers can be reduced by placing joint orders while the total carbon emissions may increase.Then,we provide a sufficient condition which indicates that when the costs and carbon emissions associated with each order initiated are relatively high,enterprises can achieve dual objectives(both carbon emission reduction and cost reduction)through joint ordering.To allocate the total cost among the retailers,we introduce an inventory game and show that this game is concave.Based on this,we propose a cost allocation rule,which belongs to the core of the game.

An uncertain energy planning model under carbon taxes

In this study, an interval fuzzy mixed-integer energy planning model （IFMI-EPM） is developed under considering the carbon tax policy. The developed IFMI- EPM incorporates techniques of interval-parameter programming, fuzzy planning and mixed-integer programming within a general energy planning model. The IFMIEPM can not only be used for quantitatively analyzing a variety of policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of carbon tax policy, but also tackle uncertainties expressed as discrete intervals and fuzzy sets in energy and environment systems. Considering low, medium and high carbon tax rates, the model is applied to an ideal energy and environment system. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They can be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help decision makers identify desired carbon tax policy.

Downside of a carbon tax for environment:Impact of information sharing

Motivated by the observation that firms invest in carbon emissions reduction to decrease the cost of carbon tax as governments in numerous countries increasingly implement carbon tax to improve the environment,and broad researcher and practitioner agreement that carbon tax implementation always benefits the environment.However,we find that a carbon tax may actually hurt the environment based on a stylized game model with a better-informed retailer(one who controls the demand information sharing with the manufacturer)and a manufacturer.In particular,we find that the carbon emissions reduction may harm the environment if the carbon tax is moderate or both the carbon tax and the demand fluctuation are high.We further reveal free-riding behavior by the retailer,who may enjoy more profit sharing from the supply chain in the presence of carbon emissions reduction.Based on these observations,we argue that a carbon tax does not always benefit the environment when a manufacturer who receives demand information from the retailer responds better to market uncertainty.

Potential Impact of Carbon Emission Tax on Coal Chemical Industry

In the case of carbon emission tax,implementation target and effect of carbon emission tax are analyzed. For development status of Chinese coal chemical industry,carbon emission data of traditional and new coal chemical industries are contrasted and analyzed,and the impact of levying carbon emission tax on coal chemical industry is studied. Promotion implementation opinions of carbon emission tax in coal chemical industry are proposed,and coordinated development between China environmental taxation system and relevant industries is further explored.

Prospects for the transformation and development of carbon storage in abandoned mines of coal enterprises from the perspective ofcarbon neutrality

Under the carbon neutrality goal,coal enterprises must seek breakthroughs from abandoned mines,develop new resources in the new era,turn problems into countermeasures,and participate in the carbon emissions market,for contributing to the accomplishment of the national strategic goal of carbon neutrality.To this end,we investigated the relevant national policies and regulations to clarify the boundaries disclosed by the carbon information of enterprises,understood the development direction of carbon storage in abandoned mines,and clarified the transformation and development of carbon storage in aban-doned mines.We made a few suggestions:(1)China should learn from its past experience and other countries to develop the energy industry with Chinese characteristics and reform the economic system.(2)Coal enterprises must actively respond to the national carbon information disclosure policy,clarify their own responsibilities and carbon emission boundaries.(3)It is necessary to proactively obtain advanced knowledge and plan carbon storage pathways for abandoned mines.(4)Devel-opment problems of coal enterprises should be deduced using cases.The'dual carbon'goals should be achieved steadily step-by-step.(5)Three measures,i.e.improving the existing resource structure,coordinating the information of abandoned mines,and promoting the cultivation of scientific and technological talents.

Influence of Taxation on Supply and Demand in Tomorrow's Crowd Energy Paradigm

The emergence of the energy self-sufficient home presents a new role for government taxation. Policymakers now face the challenge of reflecting this technological change in their decision-making and must assume a greater level of engagement. This paper proposes a number of original fiscal concepts for policymakers to implement in the support of micro-grid development. These are designed to optimise a sustainable transition away from the centralised energy system whilst creating shared value among stakeholders throughout the value chain. Concepts are based on residential micro-grid schemata in Switzerland and are applicable in other countries.