Scheduling Multi-Mode Projects under Uncertainty to Optimize Cash Flows: A Monte Carlo Ant Colony System Approach

Project scheduling under uncertainty is a challenging field of research that has attracted increasing attention. While most existing studies only consider the single-mode project scheduling problem under uncertainty, this paper aims to deal with a more realistic model called the stochastic multi-mode resource constrained project scheduling problem with discounted cash flows （S-MRCPSPDCF）. In the model, activity durations and costs are given by random variables. The objective is to find an optimal baseline schedule so that the expected net present value （NPV） of cash flows is maximized. To solve the problem, an ant colony system （ACS） based approach is designed. The algorithm dispatches a group of ants to build baseline schedules iteratively using pheromones and an expected discounted cost （EDC） heuristic. Since it is impossible to evaluate the expected NPV directly due to the presence of random variables, the algorithm adopts the Monte Carlo （MC） simulation technique. As the ACS algorithm only uses the best-so-far solution to update pheromone values, it is found that a rough simulation with a small number of random scenarios is enough for evaluation. Thus the computational cost is reduced. Experimental results on 33 instances demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and the ACS approach.

Financial frictions and the cash flow – external financing sensitivity: evidence from a panel of Pakistani firms

This paper uses a large panel of Pakistani non-financial firms over the period 2000-2013 to examine the role of financial constraints in establishing the relationship between cash flow and external financing.The results reveal that there exists a negative and significant relationship between external financing and cash flow.The finding of the substitutionary relation between internal funds availability and external financing has been viewed as evidence supporting the pecking order theory of capital structure.Yet,we show that this negative relationship is weak in case of financially constrained firms.We also analyze how credit multiplier affects external financing decisions of financially constrained and unconstrained firms.The results show that for financially unconstrained firms,the negative sensitively of external financing increases with asset tangibility.However,for financially constrained firms,the negative sensitivity of external financing to cash flow either decreases or turns positive as the tangibility of assets increases.This finding implies that financially constrained firms benefit more from investing in tangible assets because such assets not only help relax financial constraints but also having a potential to be a direct source of funds in periods of negative cash flow shocks.

Alternative measure of financial development and investment-cash flow sensitivity:evidence from an emerging economy

This study examines the impact of financial development on corporate investment in terms of their influence on financing constraints.This study also tries to find the effect of financial development on the investment-cash flow sensitivity across the size,degree of financial constraints and group affiliation of the firm.This study employs dynamic panel data model or more specifically system generalized method of moments(GMM)estimation technique.The estimation results reveal that cash flow affects the investment decision of the company positively,which implies that Indian firms are financially constrained.Also,we observe that financial development reduces the investment-cash flow sensitivity and the effect of financial development is more prominent for small size and standalone firms.The results are robust across the period and,for both financially constrained and unconstrained firms.This study contributes to the existing literature by analyzing the impact of financial development on the role of cash flow in determining investments undertaken by the Indian firms,which is an unexplored issue from an emerging market perspective.

Construction and Empirical Research of Comprehensive Financial Analysis Index System Based on Cash Flowl

This paper first elaborates on the importance of cash flow in building a comprehensive financial indicator system.On one hand,it is the relationship between cash flow and the assessment of the company’s solvency,profitability,and operating ability.On the other hand,it is the theoretical basis of financial analysis based on cash flow.We then introduced the construction principles of the financial analysis index system based on cash flow,and lastly analyzed the financial data of Xiaomi for empirical research.

China’s Rising Labor Remuneration and Evolving National Savings Rate

Cash flow statements suggest that China’s rising labor remuneration has had a major impact on its national savings rate since 2008.Accordingly,this paper proposes labor remuneration hypotheses to explain the evolving trend of China’s national savings rate.We hypothesize that:(1)The certainty and predictability of household labor remuneration have led to excess sensitivity to consumption,with a corresponding decrease in the household savings rate;(2)rising household labor remuneration means a greater share of labor remuneration is paid by firms,resulting in a smaller corporate savings rate;(3)the increase in the payment of labor remuneration by firms as a share of national disposable income has resulted in the government spending more on social welfare and public services resulting in the government having a declining share of disposable income,less propensity to save,and a falling government savings rate.Using China’s provincial panel data of 2008-2016,we performed an empirical test with the minimum wage standard as the instrumental variable to verify the above hypothesis.To cope with economic growth pressures,China needs to shift from an investment-driven to a consumption-driven growth model and prioritize investment efficiency over quantity.

Application of the Concept of Terminal Value in the Analysis of Projects Based on Renewable Energy

Projects for energy supply based on the exploitation of renewable energy have a very predictable cash flow. The initial costs are usually high, with the acquisition of technologically evolving equipment. However, maintenance costs are relatively low and easily predictable. Likewise, operating costs are often very low as there is no need to buy inputs. Power storage devices are often short-lived and contribute to a relative cost increase. At the same time, these projects are often not approved because they are directly compared to projects based on non-renewable resources, with cash flows that may not be so easily predictable and with much lower start-up costs. Fossil fuels have hardly predictable costs, established by non-technical criteria and related to geopolitical issues. In addition, their operating costs are usually very high, precisely because of the need to purchase fossil fuels. This paper proposes the calculation of terminal value in cash flows of power generation projects and its application for feasibility analysis of projects based on renewable resources. The proposed method suggests the calculation of terminal value as the moving average calculated for five-year intervals with constant growth rate of 5%. This method also encourages the inclusion in the cash flow of annual values that add up to the end of the analysis period the sufficient value to renew the system components at the end of the usual analysis period of 20 - 25 years. The application of the proposed method to a diesel wind system simulated with the well-known Homer software indicates the modification of the results of the Homer with the preference for systems with greater wind penetration instead of the systems with greater consumption of fossil fuels.

Free cash flow productivity among Chinese listed companies:A comparative study of SOEs and non-SOEs

This paper investigates the free cash flow productivity of SOEs compared with non-SOEs and examines its possible determinants.We find that SOEs have slightly weak free cash flow productivity but significantly stronger than non-SOEs.Similar performance exists among commercial class I and II SOEs and public-benefit SOEs.Further analyses suggest that firm size,age,sales growth,ownership concentration,government subsidies,and industry monopoly factors cannot explain this phenomenon.The common driver for all types of SOEs to generate stronger free cash flows than non-SOEs is their stronger expense control capability.

Quantitative Analysis of the Target Related toCash Flow Statement

With the example of the trend analysis method opplied to the cash flow statement, the authors study thequantitative analysis method of the target related to cash flow statement.So the statement user can knows the currentand previous financial condition in the enterprises, correctly evaluate the current andfuture abilities to pay andrepay,find out the problems in financial affairs, and scientifically calculate the future financial conditions. Anadequate, efficient basis is provided for scientific decision.

A Study on the Privatization Decisions of China Concepts Stock Based on the Tax Shield Effect

In this paper, we construct a company value model based on the tax shield effect for overseas listing and privatization scenarios. The trade-off process of privatization decisions is simulated in the context of China concept stock companies’ reality. The results indicate that the value of tax shields, the degree of undervaluation, the ability to obtain cash flows, the risk of short selling, the cost of listing transactions, and fraud penalties are critical factors influencing the choice of privatization. The company value analysis shows that tax shield effect positively affects the probability of privatization. Furthermore, the weaker the ability of a company to obtain cash flow when listed overseas, the lower the WACC, the higher the risk of being shorted, and the higher the cost of listing transactions, the higher the probability that a company will choose to go private. Finally, numerical simulations are adopted to validate the validity of the theoretical model and the findings using SINA’s privatization as a case study. The findings can provide academic guidance and a decision-making basis on trading arrangements for CCS companies.

Economics and Performance Forecast of Gas Turbine Combined Cycle

Forecasts of the various types of gas turbines economics and performance of gas turbine combined cycle （GTCC） with will help power plant designers to select the best type of gas turbine for future Chinese powerplants. The cost and performance of various designs were estimated using the commercial software GT PRO. Improved GTCC output will increase the system efficiency which may induce total investment and will certainly increase the cumulative cash which then will induce the cost and the payback period. The relative annual fuel output increases almost in proportion to the relative GTCC output. China should select the gas turbine that provides the most economical output according to its specific conditions. The analysis shows that a GTCC power plant with a medium-sized 100 to 200 MW output gas turbine is the most suitable for Chinese investors.

Biomass energy cost and feasibility of gasifier based biomass power generation system

The present research work has been carried out on biomass based on 10 kW capacity gasifier power generation system installed at College of Agricultural Engineering and Technology,Dr.Panjabrao Deshmukh Agricultural University(Dr.PDKV),Akola Maharashtra,India.The main objectives were to evaluate various costs and benefits involved in the power generation system.The costs of energy per unit were calculated for the first year of operation.The economics of gasifier based power generation system and thereby the feasibility of the system was examined by estimating per unit cost,Net Present Value(NPV),Benefit Cost Ratio(BCR),Internal Rate of Return(IRR)and payback period.The discount cash flow method was used to find out the IRR.In the present analysis,three costs viz.,installed capital cost,operation and maintenance cost,and levelised replacement cost were examined for the evaluation of the power generation per unit.Discount rate on investment in case of subsidy(Case I)and in case without subsidy(Case II)for installation cost of system was considered as 12.75%.The BCR comes in Case I for operating duration of 22 h,20 h,and 16 h are 1.24,1.18,and 1.13,respectively.Similarly for Case II BCR comes 1.44,1.38,and 2.39.The IRR comes in Case I for operating duration of 22 h,20 h,and 16 h are 26%,22%,and 19%,respectively.Similarly for Case II,IRR comes 52%,44%,and 39%for operating duration of 22 h,20 h,and 16 h,respectively.The payback period in the present analysis was worked out.The payback period for biomass based gasifier power generation system was observed to be for Case I from three to four years and for Case II it was one to two years.

Uncertainty Analysis of Value for Money Assessment for Public-Private Partnership Projects

In recent years, private sectors are encouraged to take an active part in franchising of urban infrastructure investments and operations, which promotes the rapid development of public-private partnership(PPP)in infrastructure and public service supply. Value for money(VFM) assessment has been officially proposed to provide a reference for selection of projects planning to adopt PPP. Based on the bottlenecks of VFM application in China and the uncertainties for urban infrastructure PPP projects, a discounted cash flow(DCF) model is established for VFM of infrastructure PPP projects. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation model is established on the basis of uncertainty factors for VFM. Through the analysis of Huai'an trams PPP project, coping strategies of uncertainties for VFM are put forward. Findings of the research may propel the establishment of a complete VFM evaluation system for PPP projects. Key instructional functions of VFM during the process of decision-making can be brought into full play and PPP may develop orderly.

A delayed royalty framework for investments in the exploration and production of hydrocarbon

The nature of oil and gas Nation's petroleum fiscal system affects the survival of exploration and production(E&P)companies during periods of low oil price as these companies are expected to pay royalty to the government irrespective of the price of oil.This affects the sustainability of E&P companies during periods of low oil price.There is the need to design a petroleum fiscal systems that increases the chances of survival of firms during periods of low oil price.This research therefore considered the economic analysis of a delayed royalty framework for investments in the exploration and production of hydrocarbon.The delay in royalty payment was hinged as a function of the time it takes the contractor to recoup his investment capital.Three economic models for petroleum investment in an onshore oil field were built.Royalty rate in the models was varied between 0 and 30%and oil price was also varied between$30-$120/bbl.Model 1 was the base case model with zero royalty payment.While model 2(Scenario 1)had royalty payment.Model 3(Scenario 2)had a delayed royalty payment.Risk analysis was also carried out to see how the delayed royalty framework increases the sustainability of E&P firm using@Risk software.It was observed that the delayed royalty framework increases the chances of survival of firms as the NPV for Scenario 2 was positive but without the framework,it was negative at an oil price of$30/bbl.The payout period,government and contractor's take and the internal rate of return also show that the delayed royalty framework will increase the chances of a firm's survival during periods of low oil price.It is seen that the delayed royalty framework is another way to make a petroleum fiscal system progressive aside the already known factors used globally.