Traffic flow sensitivity to visco-elasticity

This letter reports traffic flow sensitivity to visco-elasticity, with the traffic flow modeling briefly described at first and then used to do traffic flow simulations whose results can reflect the properties of spatial-temporal evolution of ring traffic flow. It reveals that visco-elasticity plays crucial role in formation of traffic flow patterns, implying that self-organization of traffic flow is crucial in determining traffic flow status.

Pore-scale study of the pressure-sensitive effect of sandstone and its influence on multiphase flows

The pressure-sensitive effect on the pore structure of sandstone was investigated using X-ray computed micro-tomography and QEMSCAN quantitative mineral analysis. In a physical simulation study, we extracted the pore network model from digital cores at different confining pressures and evaluated the effect of pressure sensitivity on the multiphase displacement process. In both the pore network model and QEMSCAN scanning, the pore structure was observed to be damaged under a high confining pressure. Due to their different scales, the pores and throats exhibited inhomogeneous changes; further, the throats exhibited a significant variation compared to that exhibited by the pores. Meanwhile, the heterogeneity of the pore structure under the two aforementioned activities was aggravated by the elastic-plastic deformation of the pore structure.The pressure-sensitive effect increased the proportion of mineral particles, such as quartz(the main component of the core skeleton), and reduced the proportion of clay minerals. The clay minerals were originally attached to the pore walls or interspersed in the pores; however, as the pressure increased, the clay minerals accumulated in the pores resulting in blockage of the pores. While simulating the multiphase displacement process, increasing the confining pressure was observed to severely restrict the flowability of oil and water. This study promises to improve the efficiency of reservoir development in terms of oil and gas exploitation.

Monitoring models for base flow effect and daily variation of dam seepage elements considering time lag effect

Affected by external environmental factors and evolution of dam performance, dam seepage behavior shows nonlinear time-varying characteristics. In this study, to predict and evaluate the long-term development trend and short-term fluctuation of the dam seepage behavior, two monitoring models were developed, one for the base flow effect and one for daily variation of dam seepage elements. In the first model, to avoid the influence of the time lag effect on the evaluation of seepage variation with the time effect component of seepage elements, the base values of the seepage element and the reservoir water level were extracted using the wavelet multi-resolution analysis method, and the time effect component was separated by the established base flow effect monitoring model. For the development of the daily variation monitoring model for dam seepage elements, all the previous factors, of which the measured time series prior to the dam seepage element monitoring time may have certain influence on the monitored results, were considered. Those factors that were positively correlated with the analyzed seepage element were initially considered to be the support vector machine(SVM) model input factors, and then the SVM kernel function-based sensitivity analysis was performed to optimize the input factor set and establish the optimized daily variation SVM model. The efficiency and rationality of the two models were verified by case studies of the water level of two piezometric tubes buried under the slope of a concrete gravity dam.Sensitivity analysis of the optimized SVM model shows that the influences of the daily variation of the upstream reservoir water level and rainfall on the daily variation of piezometric tube water level are processes subject to normal distribution.

A Modified Sensitive Driving Cellular Automaton Model

A modified cellular automaton model for traffic flow on highway is proposed with a novel concept about the variable security gap. The concept is first introduced into the original Nagel-Schreckenberg model, which is called the non-sensitive driving cellular automaton model. And then it is incorporated with a sensitive driving NaSch model,in which the randomization brake is arranged before the deterministic deceleration. A parameter related to the variable security gap is determined through simulation. Comparison of the simulation results indicates that the variable security gap has different influence on the two models. The fundamental diagram obtained by simulation with the modified sensitive driving NaSch model shows that the maximumflow are in good agreement with the observed data, indicating that the presented model is more reasonable and realistic.

A QUASI-FLOW CONSTITUTIVE MODEL WITH STRAIN-RATE DEPENDENCE

In this paper,the proposed is a quasi-flow constitutive model with strain-rate sen- sitivity for elastic plastic large deformation.The model is based on the Quasi-flow Corner theory, and is suitable for the sheet metal forming process simulation with a variable punch machine velocity. Uniaxial tensile tests and deep-drawing tests of a circular blank with square punch are carried out and numerically simulated.The consistency between the experimental and the numerically simulated results shows the validity of the present new constitutive model.

井筒流压快速分析方法及其在CO_(2)井中的应用

井筒作为井筒内工质流体和地下储层发生物质和能量交换的主要通道,其内部流体温度场和压力场的准确预测是深部流体注采工程中至关重要的内容,控制工程生产效率与安全性评估。通过总结前人研究工作,发现井筒内流体压力随深度近似线性变化的特征,在此基础上,提出一种关于井筒内流压的快速分析方法;建立了基于井筒内流体的质量守恒方程、动量守恒方程和能量守恒方程的井筒内流体温度、压力耦合计算模型,并利用该耦合模型就所提快速分析方法中待定参数与流体工况、井筒参数、地层物性等参数变化的敏感性进行分析;针对CO_(2)井,给出了井筒内流压快速分析表达式,结合工程现场数据进行验证,压力解精度在工程应用许可的范围内。所提井筒内流压快速分析方法基于文献统计得出,适用于气井、液井、生产井、注入井等,覆盖范围较广,具有计算参数少、方便快捷的特点,针对某指定工质流体的快速分析表达式中的待定参数可由室内研究人员给出。研究结果对现场工程师具有极大的便利性。

超深层碳酸盐岩气藏产能预测模型及影响因素研究

超深层碳酸盐岩气藏具有储集介质多样、非均质性强和高温高压等典型特征,且普遍采用斜井开发,导致气井产能评价难度大。考虑该类气藏的多重储集介质、应力敏感性、非线性渗流、阈压效应和井斜等因素,基于Forchheimer气相微分方程、应力敏感和气相渗流物理模拟实验数据建立三项式产能预测模型,对不同区域、不同类型碳酸盐岩储层的气井产能进行预测,并分析上述因素对产能的影响规律。结果表明:孔隙型和低渗透孔洞型储层受阈压效应的影响,缝洞型和高渗透孔洞型储层受非线性渗流的影响,因此三项式产能预测模型更适合储层类型多样的超深层碳酸盐岩气藏;不同类型储层表现出不同程度的应力敏感性和非线性渗流特征,需进行各类储层岩心的物理模拟实验确定产能方程所需的各项参数;井斜会产生负表皮因子影响气井产能,当井斜角大于55°时,各类储层的气井产能开始快速提升,且对缝洞型储层的改善效果最明显;阈压效应的产能抑制作用在低压差阶段很强,而应力敏感性和非线性渗流的影响主要体现在高压差阶段;启动压力梯度和非线性渗流系数分别为0.01~0.048MPa/m和10^(9)~10^(12)m^(-1)时显著抑制气井产能,而应力敏感造成的产能损失较稳定;影响气井产能的主控因素是表皮系数和地层系数,而开发阶段的非线性渗流效应对高渗透储层以及阈压效应对低渗透储层的影响也较为显著。

耦合温度影响的动态非线性渗流模型

针对现有非线性渗流模型未考虑温度变化对非线性渗流规律的影响,首先从毛细管渗流模型、Hagen-Poiseuille公式以及边界层理论出发,结合温度对边界层厚度及流体屈服应力的影响,推导得到低渗透多孔介质中耦合温度影响的动态非线性渗流模型。其次,利用已发表文献中的实验数据开展拟合验证,得到的渗流速度曲线及最小启动压力梯度与实验数据吻合度高,验证了动态非线性渗流模型的准确性,同时与静态非线性渗流模型和达西渗流模型的对比分析,进一步揭示了动态非线性渗流模型的合理性。针对渗流速度曲线进行敏感性分析表明,拟合系数A和B取值的增大均会导致渗流速度曲线右移,非线性渗流段曲线弯曲程度减弱,最小启动压力梯度增加。温度升高对渗流速度曲线影响程度较大,导致渗流速度曲线大幅上移,非线性渗流段弯曲程度减弱,最小启动压力梯度同样会增加。该动态非线性渗流模型的提出进一步丰富了非线性渗流理论的发展,可推广至相关两相流及高温高压油气藏数值模拟研究。

Numerical modeling of earthen dam breach due to piping failure

Based on model tests of earthen dam breach due to piping failure, a numerical model was developed.A key difference from previous research is the assumption that the cross-section of the pipe channel is an arch, with a rectangle at the bottom and a semicircle at the top before the collapse of the pipe roof, rather than a rectangular or circular cross-section.A shear stress-based erosion rate formula was utilized, and the arched pipe tunnel was assumed to enlarge along its length and width until the overlying soil could no longer maintain stability.Orifice flow and open channel flow were adopted to calculate the breach flow discharge for pressure and free surface flows, respectively.The collapse of the pipe roof was determined by comparing the weight of the overlying soil and the cohesion of the soil on the two sidewalls of the pipe.After the collapse, overtopping failure dominated, and the limit equilibrium method was adopted to estimate the stability of the breach slope when the water flow overtopped.In addition, incomplete and base erosion, as well as one-and two-sided breaches were taken into account.The USDAARS-HERU model test P1, with detailed measured data, was used as a case study, and two artificially filled earthen dam failure cases were studied to verify the model.Feedback analysis demonstrates that the proposed model can provide satisfactory results for modeling the breach flow discharge and breach development process.Sensitivity analysis shows that the soil erodibility and initial piping position significantly affect the prediction of the breach flow discharge.Furthermore, a comparison with a well-known numerical model shows that the proposed model performs better than the NWS BREACH model.

Sensitivity analysis of flowfield modeling parameters upon the flow structure and aerodynamics of an opposing jet over a hypersonic blunt body

Implementation of an opposing jet in design of a hypersonic blunt body significantly modifies the external flowfield and yields a considerable reduction in the aerodynamic drag.This study aims to investigate the effects of flowfield modeling parameters of injection and freestream on the flow structure and aerodynamics of a blunt body with an opposing jet in hypersonic flow.Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS)equations with a Shear Stress Transport(SST)turbulence model are employed to simulate the intricate jet flow interaction.Through utilizing a Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos(NIPC)method to construct surrogates,a functional relation is established between input modeling parameters and output flowfield and aerodynamic quantities in concern.Sobol indices in sensitivity analysis are introduced to represent the relative contribution of each parameter.It is found that variations in modeling parameters produce large variations in the flow structure and aerodynamics.The jet-to-freestream total-pressure ratio,jet Mach number,and freestream Mach number are the major contributors to variation in surface pressure,demonstrating an evident location-dependent behavior.The penetration length of injection,reattachment angle of the shear layer,and aerodynamic drag are also most sensitive to the three crucial parameters above.In comparison,the contributions of freestream temperature,freestream density,and jet total temperature are nearly negligible.

Analysis of dynamic wave model for flood routing in natural rivers

Flooding is a common natural disaster that causes enormous economic, social, and human losses. Of various flood routing methods, the dynamic wave model is one of the best approaches for the prediction of the characteristics of floods during their propagations in natural rivers because all of the terms of the momentum equation are considered in the model. However, no significant research has been conducted on how the model sensitivity affects the accuracy of the downstream hydrograph. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of the input parameters 9f the dynamic wave model was performed through field applications in natural rivers and routing experiments in artificial channels using the graphical multi-parametric sensitivity analysis （GMPSA）. The results indicate that the effects of input parameter errors on the output results are more significant in special situations, such as lower values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the characteristics of a design hydrograph, larger values of the skewness factor and/or time to peak on the channel characteristics, larger values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or the bed slope on the space step, and lower values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the time step and weighting factor.

Experiments and sensitivity analyses for heat transfer in a meter-scale regularly fractured granite model with water flow

Experiments of saturated water flow and heat transfer were conducted for a meter-scale model of regularly fractured granite.The fractured rock model(height 1502.5 mm,width 904 mm,and thickness 300 mm),embedded with two vertical and two horizontal fractures of pre-set apertures,was constructed using 18 pieces of intact granite.The granite was taken from a site currently being investigated for a high-level nuclear waste repository in China.The experiments involved different heat source temperatures and vertical water fluxes in the embedded fractures either open or filled with sand.A finite difference scheme and computer code for calculation of water flow and heat transfer in regularly fractured rocks was developed,verified against both the experimental data and calculations from the TOUGH2 code,and employed for parametric sensitivity analyses.The experiments revealed that,among other things,the temperature distribution was influenced by water flow in the fractures,especially the water flow in the vertical fracture adjacent to the heat source,and that the heat conduction between the neighboring rock blocks in the model with sand-filled fractures was enhanced by the sand,with larger range of influence of the heat source and longer time for approaching asymptotic steady-state than those of the model with open fractures.The temperatures from the experiments were in general slightly smaller than those from the numerical calculations,probably due to the fact that a certain amount of outward heat transfer at the model perimeter was unavoidable in the experiments.The parametric sensitivity analyses indicated that the temperature distribution was highly sensitive to water flow in the fractures,and the water temperature in the vertical fracture adjacent to the heat source was rather insensitive to water flow in other fractures.

STUDY ON CARGO FLOW PROJECTION IN TUMEN RIVER ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AREA

The paper studies the methodologies of the cargo flow study and projections in Tumen River Economic Development Area(TREDA) that some governments and international scholars used. The authors consider that, in order topromote investment, facilitation of cross-border trade and infrastructure in the region, the basic methodology should bebased on the regional economic growth of pertinent Northeast Asian countries and regions to make projections of the situations of regional cargo flows, and then analyzing the cargo flow trend. Based on the above, the authors utilize the routescomparing model and gravity model to forecast the cargo flows through the ports and related routes in TREDA (2000 -2020). The authors also inquire into the main obstacles which affect the cargo flows of the region, analyze the influenceson cargo flows if the obstacles change with sensitivity analyses and try to find the way to sole the obstacles.

基于机器学习和全局敏感性的弧形闸门淹没特性

为了实现灌区精确量水、准确率定闸门流量系数,该研究针对弧形闸门泄流特性,采用支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)、广义回归神经网络(generalized regression neural network,GRNN)、极限学习机(extreme learning machine,ELM)及核函数极限学习机(kernel extreme learning machine,KELM),对其淹没流态的泄流量进行预测,通过评价指标、目标函数(objective function,OBJ)准则和不确定分析等方法对模型性能进行综合评估。基于最优预测模型性能,引入全局敏感性分析Sobol法对无量纲参数进行量化分析,得出各参数对泄流量的重要程度,并进一步探究影响泄流的重要参数与流量系数(C_(d))之间的变化规律。结果表明:KELM模型在测试阶段决定系数R^(2)=0.972、平均绝对百分比K_(MAPE)=5.038%、均方根误差KRMSE=0.020、威尔莫特一致性指数K_(WIA)=0.993,目标函数值K_(OBJ)=0.0127,95%置信区间为[−0.04927,0.04956],与SVM、GRNN和ELM模型相比,该模型具有更高的准确性和鲁棒性,可作为弧形闸门流量校核的高效高精度模型;Sobol法全局敏感性分析表明,耳轴销高度与上游水深之比(h/Y0)、闸门半径与上游水深之比(R/Y0)、闸门宽度与上游水深之比(B/Y0)对Cd的一阶敏感性系数和全局敏感性系数分别为0.1162、0.0754、0.0752和0.5311、0.4966、0.4959,是影响Cd的主要因素,且C_(d)随h/Y0、R/Y0、B/Y0的增加而增大,在工程设计中应当重点考虑。该研究成果可进一步完善和丰富闸门淹没流态下的水力学机制,为校核闸孔流量提供方法。

基于潮流灵敏度的IST安装位置选择

新型“SEN Transfomer”(IST)是一种由三相双绕组变压器和有载调压开关组成的电磁式统一潮流控制器,较ST具有更灵活的潮流调控能力与更大的潮流调控范围。文中详细介绍了IST的拓扑结构及基本工作原理,推导了IST的功率注入模型。引入线路有功潮流性能指数,根据IST基本选址原则及计算得到的潮流灵敏度系数,以提高系统有功潮流调节能力为目的,对IST的安装位置进行了选择。在IEEE 14节点系统中对所提出的方法进行了验证,结果表明在该方法计算得到的支路上安装IST后,系统的有功潮流分布得到了明显的改善。

基于智能监控平台的电网安全预警技术研究

采用目前方法进行电网安全预警时,无法获取精准的电网安全数据,存在预警准确率低、预警性能差和预警效率低的问题。提出基于智能监控平台的电网安全预警技术,通过采集层、存储层、计算层、功能层、结构层构建智能监控平台,利用智能监控平台对电网的运行状态进行监控,获得电网运行数据;采用犹豫模糊决策法且依据获取的电网运行数据构建电网安全预警模型,完成电网安全预警。实验结果表明,所提方法的预警准确率高、预警性能好、预警效率高。

跨境资本的全球协动与区域联动研究——基于时变参数多层动态因子模型

跨境资本流动对金融稳定具有重要影响,探究全球和区域资本流动的协同波动有助于防范外部冲击带来的金融风险。本文采用带有随机波动率的时变多层动态因子模型,识别跨境资本流动的全球协动与区域联动特征,在此基础上通过方差分解量化全球和区域协同波动在解释资本流动中的重要性及动态变化特征。研究结果表明:从全球平均层面来看,全球和区域协同波动对资本流入与资本流出具有决定性作用,2008年国际金融危机后资本流动对外部冲击的敏感度上升;全球协动与区域联动能够解释我国大部分资本流动波动,我国资本流动对外部冲击敏感度的时变性更强。进一步将全球和区域协同波动的方差贡献度之和作为资本流动对外部冲击的敏感度,本文考察了结构性和周期性变量如何影响资本流动对外部冲击的敏感度。结果显示,金融发展水平、贸易开放程度等国内结构性变量的改善能够显著缓解资本流动对外部冲击的敏感度,这一结论为提高一国资本流动管理水平,进而维护金融稳定提供了有益的政策启示。

计及双馈风机不同控制策略的静态等值

风电并网快速增加,风电机组如双馈感应发电机(doubly-fed induction generator,DFIG)承担部分火电机组供电任务,现有静态等值算法未考虑新能源并网控制策略对静态等值影响,对静态安全分析造成威胁。因此有必要确定不同控制策略下DFIG并网潮流,建立计及DFIG控制策略的静态等值。首先基于DFIG内部模型,分别建立不同控制策略下DFIG并网潮模型。其次考虑DFIG有功功率、无功功率相互耦合,在求解潮流过程中判定潮流模型。最后利用内部网络对外部网络发电机无功灵敏度确定保留发电机节点,修改节点导纳矩阵保留DFIG内部结构,进行静态等值。结果表明,不同控制策略下,系统电压幅值变化幅度大于相角,本文所提等效模型比传统Ward等值具有更高的精度,验证了所提算法的可行性和有效性。

在斜向非定常流动中由层流向湍流转变对模型尺度螺旋桨性能和压力脉动的影响

In this paper,after the successful applications to open water propeller performance estimations,the influence of transition sensitive and modified mass transfer models tuned to account for the laminar flow in the prediction of the cavitation inception of marine propulsors is investigated from the point of view of the unsteady functioning and induced pressure pulses.The VP1304(also known as PPTC)test case,for which dedicated data were collected during several workshops,is considered first.After preliminary analyses using RANS,also Detached Eddy Simulations(DES)are included to better account for the vortex dynamics and its influence on pressure pulses.Similarly to what observed in uniform inflow,results show a better agreement with the available measurements of propeller performances and confirm the reliability of the proposed approaches for unsteady,non-cavitating,model scale propeller predictions.The overall cavitation pattern is improved too by the application of the transition sensitive correction to the mass transfer model,but the complex dynamics of bubble cavitation observed in experiments prevents quantitatively better predictions in terms of thrust/torque breakdown and induced pressure pulses levels regardless the use of RANS or DES methods.