An improved safety analysis based on the causality diagram for the complex system of micro aero-engines is presented.The study is examined by using the causality diagram in analytical failure cases due to rupture or p...An improved safety analysis based on the causality diagram for the complex system of micro aero-engines is presented.The study is examined by using the causality diagram in analytical failure cases due to rupture or pentration in the receiver of micro turbojet engine casing,and the comparisons are also made with the results from the traditional fault tree analysis.Experimental results show two main advantages：（1）Quantitative analysis which is more reliable for the failure analysis in jet engines can be produced by the causality diagram analysis;（2）Graphical representation of causality diagram is easier to apply in real test cases and more effective for the safety assessment.展开更多
Rational use of blast furnace gas(BFG) in steel industry can raise economic profit, save fossil energy resources and alleviate the environment pollution. In this paper, a causality diagram is established to describe t...Rational use of blast furnace gas(BFG) in steel industry can raise economic profit, save fossil energy resources and alleviate the environment pollution. In this paper, a causality diagram is established to describe the causal relationships among the decision objective and the variables of the scheduling process for the industrial system, based on which the total scheduling amount of the BFG system can be computed by using a causal fuzzy C-means(CFCM) clustering algorithm. In this algorithm,not only the distances among the historical samples but also the effects of different solutions on the gas tank level are considered.The scheduling solution can be determined based on the proposed causal probability of the causality diagram calculated by the total amount and the conditions of the adjustable units. The causal probability quantifies the impact of different allocation schemes of the total scheduling amount on the BFG system. An evaluation method is then proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the scheduling solutions. The experiments by using the practical data coming from a steel plant in China indicate that the proposed approach can effectively improve the scheduling accuracy and reduce the gas diffusion.展开更多
Causality Diagram (CD) is a new graphical knowledge representation based on probability theory. The application of this methodology in the safety analysis of the gas explosion in collieries was discussed in this paper...Causality Diagram (CD) is a new graphical knowledge representation based on probability theory. The application of this methodology in the safety analysis of the gas explosion in collieries was discussed in this paper, and the Minimal Cut Set, the Minimal Path Set and the Importance were introduced to develop the methodology. These concepts are employed to analyze the influence each event has on the top event ? the gas explosion, so as to find out about the defects of the system and accordingly help to work out the emphasis of the precautionary work and some preventive measures as well. The results of the safety analysis are in accordance with the practical requirements; therefore the preventive measures are certain to work effectively. In brief, according to the research CD is so effective in the safety analysis and the safety assessment that it can be a qualitative and quantitative method to predict the accident as well as offer some effective measures for the investigation, the prevention and the control of the accident.展开更多
The causality diagram theory, which adopts graphical expression of knowledge and direct intensity of causality, overcomes some shortages in belief network and has evolved into a mixed causality diagram methodology for...The causality diagram theory, which adopts graphical expression of knowledge and direct intensity of causality, overcomes some shortages in belief network and has evolved into a mixed causality diagram methodology for discrete and continuous variable. But to give linkage intensity of causality diagram is difficult, particularly in many working conditions in which sampling data are limited or noisy. The classic learning algorithm is hard to be adopted. We used genetic algorithm to learn linkage intensity from limited data. The simulation results demonstrate that this algorithm is more suitable than the classic algorithm in the condition of sample shortage such as space shuttle’s fault diagnoisis.展开更多
随着人工智能技术的发展和海量司法数据的公开,面向“智慧司法”服务的司法判决预测(legal judgment prediction,LJP)任务受到了学术界和工业界的广泛关注,该任务旨在根据有限的案件事实描述文本来预测案件的罪名、法条和刑期。然而,现...随着人工智能技术的发展和海量司法数据的公开,面向“智慧司法”服务的司法判决预测(legal judgment prediction,LJP)任务受到了学术界和工业界的广泛关注,该任务旨在根据有限的案件事实描述文本来预测案件的罪名、法条和刑期。然而,现有工作缺乏对易混淆司法案件的智能决策的研究,且相关模型通常缺乏可解释性,这会导致模型预测严重依赖领域专家,阻碍LJP在不同法律体系中的应用。为此,提出了一种基于因果图分析的司法判决预测(prediction of legal judgment based on causal graph analysis,CGLJ)方法,首先从非结构化的法律事实描述文本中挖掘要素之间的因果关系,然后采用易混淆罪名聚类的构图方法构建因果图,既考虑了相似事实描述之间的差异,又增强了事实描述和法律法规之间的相互作用,最后将构建好的因果图融入深度神经网络进行联合推理,得到判决预测结果。此外,还对模型预测过程中的因果图推理过程进行了可视化,为判决结果提供了更好的可解释性。在2018中国“法研杯”司法人工智能挑战赛(CAIL2018)司法判决预测数据集上的实验结果表明,该方法相比基线模型取得了更好的效果。展开更多
随着医院改革的进一步深化,医院管理模式已由粗放的行政化管理转向全方位的绩效管理转变。研究从员工个人绩效管理角度出发,采用系统动力学方法,分析员工绩效系统的关键性因素及因素之间的关系,绘制因果回路图并提出改进策略。基于能力...随着医院改革的进一步深化,医院管理模式已由粗放的行政化管理转向全方位的绩效管理转变。研究从员工个人绩效管理角度出发,采用系统动力学方法,分析员工绩效系统的关键性因素及因素之间的关系,绘制因果回路图并提出改进策略。基于能力-动机-机会(ability,motivation and opportunity,AMO)理论建立系统动力学模型,识别员工能力、动机和机会是影响个人绩效的主要影响因素,与其他次要因素如工作满意度、奖励机制、职业发展、外部环境等共同影响个人绩效系统行为。基于系统动力学模型,提出构建合理的激励机制、提供必要的学习机会以及创造良好的工作环境是促进员工绩效提升、实现医院发展目标的重要途径,为医院绩效管理提供参考。展开更多
Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of...Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and classified.Based on this,a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment sys-tem development based on system dynamics is established.The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis,risk consequences ana-lysis,risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures,and achieves a good risk identification effect.展开更多
文摘An improved safety analysis based on the causality diagram for the complex system of micro aero-engines is presented.The study is examined by using the causality diagram in analytical failure cases due to rupture or pentration in the receiver of micro turbojet engine casing,and the comparisons are also made with the results from the traditional fault tree analysis.Experimental results show two main advantages：（1）Quantitative analysis which is more reliable for the failure analysis in jet engines can be produced by the causality diagram analysis;（2）Graphical representation of causality diagram is easier to apply in real test cases and more effective for the safety assessment.
基金supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(61473056,61533005,61522304,61603068,U1560102)
文摘Rational use of blast furnace gas(BFG) in steel industry can raise economic profit, save fossil energy resources and alleviate the environment pollution. In this paper, a causality diagram is established to describe the causal relationships among the decision objective and the variables of the scheduling process for the industrial system, based on which the total scheduling amount of the BFG system can be computed by using a causal fuzzy C-means(CFCM) clustering algorithm. In this algorithm,not only the distances among the historical samples but also the effects of different solutions on the gas tank level are considered.The scheduling solution can be determined based on the proposed causal probability of the causality diagram calculated by the total amount and the conditions of the adjustable units. The causal probability quantifies the impact of different allocation schemes of the total scheduling amount on the BFG system. An evaluation method is then proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the scheduling solutions. The experiments by using the practical data coming from a steel plant in China indicate that the proposed approach can effectively improve the scheduling accuracy and reduce the gas diffusion.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 59677009) the National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (No.99061116)
文摘Causality Diagram (CD) is a new graphical knowledge representation based on probability theory. The application of this methodology in the safety analysis of the gas explosion in collieries was discussed in this paper, and the Minimal Cut Set, the Minimal Path Set and the Importance were introduced to develop the methodology. These concepts are employed to analyze the influence each event has on the top event ? the gas explosion, so as to find out about the defects of the system and accordingly help to work out the emphasis of the precautionary work and some preventive measures as well. The results of the safety analysis are in accordance with the practical requirements; therefore the preventive measures are certain to work effectively. In brief, according to the research CD is so effective in the safety analysis and the safety assessment that it can be a qualitative and quantitative method to predict the accident as well as offer some effective measures for the investigation, the prevention and the control of the accident.
基金Funded by Chongqing High Tech Projects Foundation (No. 8277).
文摘The causality diagram theory, which adopts graphical expression of knowledge and direct intensity of causality, overcomes some shortages in belief network and has evolved into a mixed causality diagram methodology for discrete and continuous variable. But to give linkage intensity of causality diagram is difficult, particularly in many working conditions in which sampling data are limited or noisy. The classic learning algorithm is hard to be adopted. We used genetic algorithm to learn linkage intensity from limited data. The simulation results demonstrate that this algorithm is more suitable than the classic algorithm in the condition of sample shortage such as space shuttle’s fault diagnoisis.
文摘随着人工智能技术的发展和海量司法数据的公开,面向“智慧司法”服务的司法判决预测(legal judgment prediction,LJP)任务受到了学术界和工业界的广泛关注,该任务旨在根据有限的案件事实描述文本来预测案件的罪名、法条和刑期。然而,现有工作缺乏对易混淆司法案件的智能决策的研究,且相关模型通常缺乏可解释性,这会导致模型预测严重依赖领域专家,阻碍LJP在不同法律体系中的应用。为此,提出了一种基于因果图分析的司法判决预测(prediction of legal judgment based on causal graph analysis,CGLJ)方法,首先从非结构化的法律事实描述文本中挖掘要素之间的因果关系,然后采用易混淆罪名聚类的构图方法构建因果图,既考虑了相似事实描述之间的差异,又增强了事实描述和法律法规之间的相互作用,最后将构建好的因果图融入深度神经网络进行联合推理,得到判决预测结果。此外,还对模型预测过程中的因果图推理过程进行了可视化,为判决结果提供了更好的可解释性。在2018中国“法研杯”司法人工智能挑战赛(CAIL2018)司法判决预测数据集上的实验结果表明,该方法相比基线模型取得了更好的效果。
文摘随着医院改革的进一步深化,医院管理模式已由粗放的行政化管理转向全方位的绩效管理转变。研究从员工个人绩效管理角度出发,采用系统动力学方法,分析员工绩效系统的关键性因素及因素之间的关系,绘制因果回路图并提出改进策略。基于能力-动机-机会(ability,motivation and opportunity,AMO)理论建立系统动力学模型,识别员工能力、动机和机会是影响个人绩效的主要影响因素,与其他次要因素如工作满意度、奖励机制、职业发展、外部环境等共同影响个人绩效系统行为。基于系统动力学模型,提出构建合理的激励机制、提供必要的学习机会以及创造良好的工作环境是促进员工绩效提升、实现医院发展目标的重要途径,为医院绩效管理提供参考。
文摘Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and classified.Based on this,a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment sys-tem development based on system dynamics is established.The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis,risk consequences ana-lysis,risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures,and achieves a good risk identification effect.
