Cause Analysis on the Missing Report of First Thunderstorm Weather in Shenyang City in 2010

The first thunderstorm weather appeared in southern Shenyang on May 2,2010 and did not bring about severe lightning disaster for Shenyang region,but forecast service had poor effect without forecasting thunderstorm weather accurately.In our paper,the reasons for missing report of this thunderstorm weather were analyzed,and analysis on thunderstorm potential was carried out by means of mesoscale analysis technique,providing technical index and vantage point for the prediction of thunderstorm potential.The results showed that the reasons for missing report of this weather process were as follows:surface temperature at prophase was constantly lower going against the development of convective weather;the interpreting and analyzing ability of numerical forecast product should be improved;the forecast result of T639 model was better than that of Japanese numerical forecast;the study and application of mesoscale analysis technique should be strengthened,and this service was formally developed after thunderstorm weather on June 1,2010.

Cause Analysis on Precipitation Enhancement in the Middle and Lower Yangtze Valley

By means of MICAPS data from China Meteorological Administration,the weather dynamics causing precipitation enhancement in the middle and lower Yangtze Valley on January 19,2008 was analyzed.The results showed that the convergence of cold and warm air was the basic condition of precipitation enhancement,and the influence systems of precipitation enhancement were surface inverse trough,850-700 hPa warm shear and 850-500 hPa low trough,while southwest and southeast low jet were the important dynamic mechanisms of precipitation enhancement,and southwest low jet offered abundant water vapor for precipitation enhancement.

CHARACTERISTICS AND CAUSE ANALYSIS OF WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH DURING THE HUAIHE RIVER FLOODS IN 2003

1 INTRODUCTION In summer, different assembly of the intensity, location and vertical structure of the subtropical high and the earlier/later time of its seasonal northwards jump bring about different precipitation patterns over China. Therefore, subtropical high activity and its cause during the occurrence of extreme climatic event over China and the cause of China drought/flood are studied to improve weather forecasting.

Ensemble Based Temporal Weighting and Pareto Ranking (ETP) Model for Effective Root Cause Analysis

Root-cause identification plays a vital role in business decision making by providing effective future directions for the organizations.Aspect extraction and sentiment extraction plays a vital role in identifying the rootcauses.This paper proposes the Ensemble based temporal weighting and pareto ranking(ETP)model for Root-cause identification.Aspect extraction is performed based on rules and is followed by opinion identification using the proposed boosted ensemble model.The obtained aspects are validated and ranked using the proposed aspect weighing scheme.Pareto-rule based aspect selection is performed as the final selection mechanism and the results are presented for business decision making.Experiments were performed with the standard five product benchmark dataset.Performances on all five product reviews indicate the effective performance of the proposed model.Comparisons are performed using three standard state-of-the-art models and effectiveness is measured in terms of F-Measure and Detection rates.The results indicate improved performances exhibited by the proposed model with an increase in F-Measure levels at 1%–15%and detection rates at 4%–24%compared to the state-of-the-art models.

Climatic Change Characteristics of Sunshine Hours and Cause Analysis in Lianyungang City

[Objective]The research aimed to study climatic change characteristics of sunshine hours in Lianyungang and analyze its formation reason. [Method]Based on monthly sunshine hours,precipitation,cloudiness,haze days and vapor pressure from 7 stations of Lianyungang from 1961 to 2010,monthly,seasonal,annual and interdecadal change trends of the sunshine hours were analyzed by using MK test,linear trend analysis and Morlet wavelet. Meanwhile,the cause of change characteristics was analyzed. [Result] Monthly sunshine hours of Lianyungang showed bimodal distribution,and seasonal and annual sunshine hours had decreasing trend at different degrees. The interdecadal change of sunshine hours showed wave characteristics. The annual sunshine hours had multiple temporal-spatial scale features,and there was an obvious mutation in the late 1980s. Sunshine hours in Lianyungang was closely related to visibility,cloudiness,vapor pressure and haze,and they were important factors causing that sunshine hours significantly declined. [Conclusion]The research could provide reference basis for scientifically developing and using solar energy resource and reasonably adjusting industrial and agricultural structures.

Cause Analysis of Crack Formation in HRB400 Screw-Thread Steel

The analysis of the crack on the HRB400 screw-thread steel surface has been carried out by means of metallographic microscope, scanning electron microscope and EDAX. It is shown that the type of inclusions in the crack steel samples is mainly class B oxide, C silicate, and the inclusion size of the majority below 10 μm, and a small number of large inclusions are observed. The content of oxygen in the steel is high, and the carbon segregation is the main reason of the crack formation of HRB400 screw-thread steel. The measures to improve the crack formation of HRB400 screw-thread steel are put forward, which provides a powerful basis for the practical production.

Cause Analysis of Gully Erosion in Yuanmou Basin of Jinshajiang Valley

Some factors （i.e. lithology, topography, climate, the change of population as well as land use during the past 50 years） that could have great influence on the development of gully in the arid-hot basin of Jinshajiang valley were investigated. The results show that the factors leading to the strong gully erosion in this area include： the widely distributed Yuanmou group stratum, which promotes the development of gully erosion; the unique geomorphologic configuration that is prone to rock fall and gully erosion; the strong and time-concentrated rainfall; the arid-humid alternate climate characteristics that prepares the ground for the development of fissures in soils; the arid-hot climate that goes against the growth and recovery of vegetation; and the unreasonable and abusive human activities.

A Causal Fusion Inference Method for Industrial Alarm Root Cause Analysis Based on Process Topology and Alarm Event Data

Modern industrial systems are usually in large scale,consisting of massive components and variables that form a complex system topology.Owing to the interconnections among devices,a fault may occur and propagate to exert widespread influences and lead to a variety of alarms.Obtaining the root causes of alarms is beneficial to the decision supports in making corrective alarm responses.Existing data-driven methods for alarm root cause analysis detect causal relations among alarms mainly based on historical alarm event data.To improve the accuracy,this paper proposes a causal fusion inference method for industrial alarm root cause analysis based on process topology and alarm events.A Granger causality inference method considering process topology is exploited to find out the causal relations among alarms.The topological nodes are used as the inputs of the model,and the alarm causal adjacency matrix between alarm variables is obtained by calculating the likelihood of the topological Hawkes process.The root cause is then obtained from the directed acyclic graph(DAG)among alarm variables.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by simulations based on both a numerical example and the Tennessee Eastman process(TEP)model.

Cause Analysis of Wuhan Tianheng Building Pile Accident

The geological condition and the original structure feature and foundation design of Wuhan Tianheng building are described. The accident appearance of pile foundation in the construction execution of work is illustrated. The generating source of this pile foundation accident is analyzed in great details.

Climate Change and Cause Analysis on Hazy Weather in Zibo City

The research analyzed the definition, differences and connection between fog and haze, as well as the formation causes, and the countermeasures were pro- posed, providing references for improving air quality in cities.

Alarm-Based Root Cause Analysis Based on Weighted Fault Propagation Topology for Distributed Information Network

A distributed information network with complex network structure always has a challenge of locating fault root causes.In this paper,we propose a novel root cause analysis(RCA)method by random walk on the weighted fault propagation graph.Different from other RCA methods,it mines effective features information related to root causes from offline alarms.Combined with the information,online alarms and graph relationship of network structure are used to construct a weighted graph.Thus,this approach does not require operational experience and can be widely applied in different distributed networks.The proposed method can be used in multiple fault location cases.The experiment results show the proposed approach achieves much better performance with 6%higher precision at least for root fault location,compared with three baseline methods.Besides,we explain how the optimal parameter’s value in the random walk algorithm influences RCA results.

Spatial-Temporal Variation Characteristics and Cause Analysis of Water Quality in Yinma River Basin

In order to comprehensively understand the water quality in Yinma River Basin,and to analyze the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of water quality over the years and the causes of water pollution,15 sections were selected in the Yinma River Basin.Based on the water quality monitoring data in the past decade,7 evaluation indexes including dissolved oxygen(DO),5-day biochemical oxygen demand(BOD_(5)),permanganate index(COD_(MN)),chemical oxygen demand(COD),ammonia nitrogen(NH_(4)-N),total phosphorus(TP)and total nitrogen(TN)were determined,according to the Environmental Quality Standard for Surface Water(GB3838-2002)and the historical monitoring data of rivers.The water quality of 15 sections in Yinma River Basin was comprehensively evaluated,and the water quality categories and the evolution of river water quality were analyzed.The pollution sources of Yinma River Basin were analyzed,and the constructive countermeasures were put forward according to the conclusions.

A Framework for Modern Risk-Informed Root Cause Analysis Process

The paper discusses the framework for a risk-informed root cause analysis process.Such process enables scaling of the analysis performed based on the risk associated with the undesired event or condition,thereby creating tiers of analysis where the greater the risk,the more sophisticated the analysis.In a risk-informed root cause analysis process,a situation is normally not analyzed at a level less than what actually occurred.However,a situation may be investigated as though the consequence were greater than actually happened,especially if only slight differences in circumstances could result in a significantly higher consequence.While operational events or safety issues are normally expected to result only with negligible or marginal actual consequences,many of those would actually have certain potential to develop or propagate into catastrophic events.This potential can be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively.Risk-informing of root cause analysis relies on mapping the event or safety issue into a risk matrix which,traditionally,is a two-dimensional probability-consequence matrix.A new concept employed in the risk matrix for root cause analysis is that,while the probability reflects the observed or expected range of values(retaining,thus,its“traditional”meaning),the consequence reflects not only the observed or materialized impact(such as failure of equipment)but,also,its potential to propagate or develop into highly undesirable final state.The paper presents main elements of risk-informed root cause analysis process and discusses qualitative and quantitative aspects and approaches to determination of risk significance of operational events or safety issues.

Cause analysis of expressway traffic accidents based on accident statistics of Hunan provincial expressway in 2012-2018

Based on the 2012–2018 accident statistics on the Hunan Provincial Expressway in China,this paper analyses the proportion to which various factors contribute to accidents,as well as the trends over time.From 2012 to 2018,the total number of general procedure handling accidents(i.e.major accidents)increased first and then decreased,while the number of accidents and deaths per 1000 kilometres decreased year by year.The total number of simple procedure handling accidents(i.e.minor accidents)increased year by year,but the number of accidents per 1000 kilometres remained relatively stable.Speeding,fatigued driving,improper driving operation,failure to maintain a safe distance from the preceding vehicle and pedestrians entering the expressway are the main causes of general procedure handling accidents.Failure to maintain a safe distance from the preceding vehicle as required and improper driving operation accounted for approximately 2/3 of the simple procedure handling accidents.In view of the accidents caused by these factors,how to use law enforcement,education,science and technology and facilities construction to further reduce the occurrence of expressway traffic accidents is discussed.

Analysis of the Causes of the Intensity Enhancement of the Typhoon “Tiange”

This paper analyzes the causes of the offshore strength enhancement of Typhoon Tiange (No. 1713) from four aspects: high and low layer divergence, vertical wind shear, southwest monsoon transport, offshore sea temperature and weak cold air. The conclusions are as follows: The high-level airflow divergence enhancement and positive vorticity advection in the offshore, strengthen the middle rise movement of the “Tiange”, and the ascending movement enhances the strength of the “Tiange” by strengthening the lower layer convergence;The high offshore sea temperature and sea temperature are changing temperature, which also has a certain effect on the strengthening of “Tiange” in the offshore;The strengthening of the southwest warm and humid airflow provides sufficient water vapor and energy for the development of “Tiange”, which is beneficial to the maintenance of the typhoon warm heart structure;The intrusion of weak cold air, enhanced the radiation cooperation of the lower typhoon disturbance, which is beneficial to the enhancement of “Tiange”.

Analysis and Response of Steel Stacking Accidents in Hot Rolling Coilers

Through long-term production and maintenance practice,various types of stacking steel in the 2250mm hot rolling coiler of Ma Steel were tracked and analyzed,and the causes of stacking steel were summarized.Cor-responding measures were formulated to effectively reduce the probability of stacking steel.

Statistical and causes analysis of storm surges along Tianjin coast during the past 20 years

Based on tidal data statistical analysis for 20 years of Tanggu Marine Environmental Monitoring Station from 1991 to 2010, we concluded that an average of nearly 10 days of 100 cm above water increase took place at Tianjin coast every year. The maximum high tide and average tide of Tianjin coast occurred in summer and autumn, and the maximum water increase also occurred in summer and autumn. Days with water increase more than 100 cm mostly occurred in spring, autumn and winter. Then we summarized the causes of coastal storm surge disaster in Tianjin based on astronomical tide factors, meteorological factors, sea level rise, land subsidence, and geographic factors, et al. Finally, we proposed storm surge disaster prevention measures.

A knowledge reasoning Fuzzy-Bayesian network for root cause analysis of abnormal aluminum electrolysis cell condition

Root cause analysis （RCA） of abnormal aluminum electrolysis cell condition has long been a challenging industrial issue due to its inherent complexity in analyzing based on multi-source knowledge. In addition, accurate RCA of abnormal aluminum electrolysis cell condition is the precondition of improving current efficiency. RCA of abnormal condition is a complex work of multi-source knowledge fusion, which is difficult to ensure the RCA accuracy of abnormal cell condition because of dwindling and frequent flow of experienced technicians. In view of this, a method based on Fuzzy- Bayesian network to construct multi-source knowledge solidification reasoning model is proposed. The method can effectively fuse and solidify the knowledge, which is used to analyze the cause of abnormal condition by technicians providing a clear and intuitive framework to this complex task, and also achieve the result of root cause automatically. The proposed method was verified under 20 sets of abnormal cell conditions, and implements root cause analysis by finding the abnormal state of root node, which has a maximum posterior probability by Bayesian diagnosis reasoning. The accuracy of the test results is up to 95%, which shows that the knowledge reasoning feasibility for RCA of aluminum electrolysis cell.

Analysis of the development and causes of formation of Eucampia zoodiacus red tide in Xiamen Harbor

The red tide event of 11￣28, May in 1987 was caused by Eucampia zoodiacus, a coastal eurythermic phytoplanktou. Results from the field monitoring indicated that during the red tide occurrence the optimal temperature and salinity for the multiplication of the red tide organism were 20￣25℃ and 26￣28. During the red tide event cell densities in two peak values both reached 3 000×103ind. /din3. Organism number in horizonal distribution increased from the harbour mouth to the inner harbour. Average number of the organism at the monitoring stations in the inner harbour was 2 930×103 md. /dm3 which was 3. 7 and 61 times higher than that at the two control monitoring stations. The organism number in vertical distribution apparently showed stepwise, day and night changes. Daily change of the phytoplankton number with spring and ebb tides exhibited a negative relativity.Major reasons for this red tide event included species competition of red tide organisms, sudden increment in water temperature in short time, sharp decrement in salinity by rainfall, water eutrophication, high contents of stimulating materials such as Fe and Mn, poor water exchange condition and stable synoptic condition, etc.High content of dissolved oxygen and high pH value was resulted from the photosythesis of a great quantity of the red tide organisms.

Analysis of Causes for An Unusual Cloudy-rainy Weather for Several Days in Autumn

Cloudy-rainy weather for several days in 2007 was featured with the longest duration and the most serious extent of injury since the time from which there was meteorology observation record in Shandong.The causes of this process were analyzed in this article in terms of general circulation,character of physical quantity and tropical cyclone.The result showed that the precipitation process was a long wave adjustment process and it took place during the transformation process of general circulation turning from the zonal to the radial.During the cloudy-rainy weather process,the Ural mountain ridge and the Western Pacific subtropical high were more abnormally strong and in the further north than that in any other years.The tropical cyclone in the south of the subtropical cyclone activity was more frequent.There was more shortwave in middle latitudes of Asian.The cold air masses Siberia went down south.The cold air masses joined with the current of air in the Lower Yellow River.This led to the lasting cloudy-rainy weather for several days in Shandong.