Arid areas with low precipitation and sparse vegetation typically yield compact urban pattern,and drought directly impacts urban site selection,growth processes,and future scenarios.Spatial simulation and projection b...Arid areas with low precipitation and sparse vegetation typically yield compact urban pattern,and drought directly impacts urban site selection,growth processes,and future scenarios.Spatial simulation and projection based on cellular automata(CA)models is important to achieve sustainable urban development in arid areas.We developed a new CA model using bat algorithm(BA)named bat algorithm-probability-of-occurrence-cellular automata(BA-POO-CA)model by considering drought constraint to accurately delineate urban growth patterns and project future scenarios of Urumqi City and its surrounding areas,located in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.We calibrated the BA-POO-CA model for the drought-prone study area with 2000 and 2010 data and validated the model with 2010 and 2020 data,and finally projected its urban scenarios in 2030.The results showed that BA-POO-CA model yielded overall accuracy of 97.70%and figure-of-merits(FOMs)of 35.50%in 2010,and 97.70%and 26.70%in 2020,respectively.The inclusion of drought intensity factor improved the performance of BA-POO-CA model in terms of FOMs,with increases of 5.50%in 2010 and 7.90%in 2020 than the model excluding drought intensity factor.This suggested that the urban growth of Urumqi City was affected by drought,and therefore taking drought intensity factor into account would contribute to simulation accuracy.The BA-POO-CA model including drought intensity factor was used to project two possible scenarios(i.e.,business-as-usual(BAU)scenario and ecological scenario)in 2030.In the BAU scenario,the urban growth dominated mainly in urban fringe areas,especially in the northern part of Toutunhe District,Xinshi District,and Midong District.Using exceptional and extreme drought areas as a spatial constraint,the urban growth was mainly concentrated in the"main urban areas-Changji-Hutubi"corridor urban pattern in the ecological scenario.The results of this research can help to adjust urban planning and development policies.Our model is readily applicable to simulating urban growth and future scenarios in global arid areas such as Northwest China and Africa.展开更多
Based on three-dimensional cellular automata （CA）, a new stochastic simulation model to simulate the microstructures and particle flow of talus deposit is proposed. Ill addition, an auto-modeling program CARS is dev...Based on three-dimensional cellular automata （CA）, a new stochastic simulation model to simulate the microstructures and particle flow of talus deposit is proposed. Ill addition, an auto-modeling program CARS is developed, with which nunaerical simulations can be conducted conveniently. For the problem of simulating mechanical behaviors of talus deposit, spatial anangement or sphere shapes should be considered. In the new modeling method, four sphere anangement models are developed for the particle flow simulation of talus deposit. Numerical results show that the talus deposit has the mechanical characteristics of typical stress-strain curves, as other rock-like materials. The cohesion of talus deposit decreases with increasing rock content, while the internal friction angle increases with increasing rock contents. Finally, numerical simulation is verified with the results of field test.展开更多
以内蒙古巴彦淖尔市磴口县为研究区,在LPI-CA-Markov模型的基础上构建AES-LPI-CA模型,利用人工内分泌系统(AES)调整元胞自动机邻域中中心元胞的转移概率,并基于磴口县2000年与2007年景观格局数据对县域2014年景观格局进行模拟,将该模型...以内蒙古巴彦淖尔市磴口县为研究区,在LPI-CA-Markov模型的基础上构建AES-LPI-CA模型,利用人工内分泌系统(AES)调整元胞自动机邻域中中心元胞的转移概率,并基于磴口县2000年与2007年景观格局数据对县域2014年景观格局进行模拟,将该模型模拟结果与LPI-CA-Markov模型、CA-Markov模型的模拟结果进行对比,结果显示3种模型模拟结果的KIA(Kappa index of agreement,以2014年实际景观分布为参照)依次为0.823 6、0.785 5、0.768 2,AES-LPI-CA模型显示了较高模拟精度。展开更多
传统元胞自动机(CA)模型的转换规则不随模拟过程的时间和空间而变化,难以模拟和表达非线性地理过程。提出基于集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)动态优化CA模型参数的方法,以提高模型对复杂地理过程模拟的适应能力。通过引入集合卡尔曼滤波到CA模型...传统元胞自动机(CA)模型的转换规则不随模拟过程的时间和空间而变化,难以模拟和表达非线性地理过程。提出基于集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)动态优化CA模型参数的方法,以提高模型对复杂地理过程模拟的适应能力。通过引入集合卡尔曼滤波到CA模型中,将模型参数与模型状态整合成一个联合状态矩阵(joint state matrix)。再把该矩阵与观测数据输入到EnKF更新方程中,计算出新的参数值,并自动更新到模型中,从而实现动态调整模型运行轨迹,以更好地适应城市发展的过程模拟。将此方法应用于东莞市的城市模拟试验中,优化后的CA模型能在单参数和多参数优化中正确地调整模型参数,使其迅速地收敛于真值并趋于平缓,也能降低模型误差并获得更好的模拟结果。展开更多
基金supported the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42071371)the National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFB0505400).
文摘Arid areas with low precipitation and sparse vegetation typically yield compact urban pattern,and drought directly impacts urban site selection,growth processes,and future scenarios.Spatial simulation and projection based on cellular automata(CA)models is important to achieve sustainable urban development in arid areas.We developed a new CA model using bat algorithm(BA)named bat algorithm-probability-of-occurrence-cellular automata(BA-POO-CA)model by considering drought constraint to accurately delineate urban growth patterns and project future scenarios of Urumqi City and its surrounding areas,located in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.We calibrated the BA-POO-CA model for the drought-prone study area with 2000 and 2010 data and validated the model with 2010 and 2020 data,and finally projected its urban scenarios in 2030.The results showed that BA-POO-CA model yielded overall accuracy of 97.70%and figure-of-merits(FOMs)of 35.50%in 2010,and 97.70%and 26.70%in 2020,respectively.The inclusion of drought intensity factor improved the performance of BA-POO-CA model in terms of FOMs,with increases of 5.50%in 2010 and 7.90%in 2020 than the model excluding drought intensity factor.This suggested that the urban growth of Urumqi City was affected by drought,and therefore taking drought intensity factor into account would contribute to simulation accuracy.The BA-POO-CA model including drought intensity factor was used to project two possible scenarios(i.e.,business-as-usual(BAU)scenario and ecological scenario)in 2030.In the BAU scenario,the urban growth dominated mainly in urban fringe areas,especially in the northern part of Toutunhe District,Xinshi District,and Midong District.Using exceptional and extreme drought areas as a spatial constraint,the urban growth was mainly concentrated in the"main urban areas-Changji-Hutubi"corridor urban pattern in the ecological scenario.The results of this research can help to adjust urban planning and development policies.Our model is readily applicable to simulating urban growth and future scenarios in global arid areas such as Northwest China and Africa.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(50979030 and 50911130366)
文摘Based on three-dimensional cellular automata （CA）, a new stochastic simulation model to simulate the microstructures and particle flow of talus deposit is proposed. Ill addition, an auto-modeling program CARS is developed, with which nunaerical simulations can be conducted conveniently. For the problem of simulating mechanical behaviors of talus deposit, spatial anangement or sphere shapes should be considered. In the new modeling method, four sphere anangement models are developed for the particle flow simulation of talus deposit. Numerical results show that the talus deposit has the mechanical characteristics of typical stress-strain curves, as other rock-like materials. The cohesion of talus deposit decreases with increasing rock content, while the internal friction angle increases with increasing rock contents. Finally, numerical simulation is verified with the results of field test.
文摘以内蒙古巴彦淖尔市磴口县为研究区,在LPI-CA-Markov模型的基础上构建AES-LPI-CA模型,利用人工内分泌系统(AES)调整元胞自动机邻域中中心元胞的转移概率,并基于磴口县2000年与2007年景观格局数据对县域2014年景观格局进行模拟,将该模型模拟结果与LPI-CA-Markov模型、CA-Markov模型的模拟结果进行对比,结果显示3种模型模拟结果的KIA(Kappa index of agreement,以2014年实际景观分布为参照)依次为0.823 6、0.785 5、0.768 2,AES-LPI-CA模型显示了较高模拟精度。
文摘传统元胞自动机(CA)模型的转换规则不随模拟过程的时间和空间而变化,难以模拟和表达非线性地理过程。提出基于集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)动态优化CA模型参数的方法,以提高模型对复杂地理过程模拟的适应能力。通过引入集合卡尔曼滤波到CA模型中,将模型参数与模型状态整合成一个联合状态矩阵(joint state matrix)。再把该矩阵与观测数据输入到EnKF更新方程中,计算出新的参数值,并自动更新到模型中,从而实现动态调整模型运行轨迹,以更好地适应城市发展的过程模拟。将此方法应用于东莞市的城市模拟试验中,优化后的CA模型能在单参数和多参数优化中正确地调整模型参数,使其迅速地收敛于真值并趋于平缓,也能降低模型误差并获得更好的模拟结果。
