Food security amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Asia:Evidence from rural Tajikistan

Food security has been long understudied in the context of Central Asia.We present an analysis examining household-level food demand for Tajikistan and assessing the magnitude of its food security changes during the COVID-19 pandemic.Based on an extensive household survey data set from Tajikistan,we estimate the expenditure,income,and price elasticities for nine food categories using the QUAIDS model.Then,we develop a microsimulation model using the estimated elasticities to assess the dual impact of declining remittance income and rising food prices stemming from the pandemic shock.There are significant differences in demand elasticities across food groups,with high elasticities observed for nutritious foods,such as meat,fruit,eggs,and milk,in rural households.Moreover,our findings show that changes in remittance income and food prices significantly negatively affected food security for rural households during the COVID-19 pandemic.These findings have important implications for policymakers concerned about rural livelihoods and food security in remittance-receiving economies during the post-pandemic period.

Central Asia revealed as a key area in evolution of Eremurus (Asphodelaceae)

Eremurus was described at the beginning of the 19th century.However,due to limited sampling and the small number of gene markers to date,its phylogeny and evolution are largely unknown.In this study,we analyzed plastomes from 27 species belonging to 2 subgenera and 3 sections of Eremurus,which are found in Central Asia(its center of diversity)and China.We also analyzed nuclear DNA ITS of 33 species,encompassing all subgenera and sections of the genus in Central Asia,southwest Asia and China.Our findings revealed that the genus was monophyletic,although both subgenera Eremurus and Henningia were found to be paraphyletic.Both plastome and nrDNA-based phylogenetic trees had three clades that did not reflect the current taxonomy of the genus.Our biogeographical and time-calibrated trees suggest that Eremurus originated in the ancient Tethyan area in the second half of the Eocene.Diversification of Eremurus occurred from the early Oligocene to the late Miocene.Paratethys Sea retreat and several orogenetic events,such as the progressive uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and surrounding mountain belts(Altai,Pamir,Tian Shan),caused serious topographic and climate(aridification)changes in Central Asia that may have triggered a split of clades and speciation.In this transformed Central Asia,speciation proceeded rapidly driven mainly by vicariance caused by numerous mountain chains and specialization to a variety of climatic,topographic and soil conditions that exist in this region.

The Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)Project in Central Asia:The Case for a Regional Hydroclimate Project

Central Asia consists of the former Soviet Republics,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan.The region’s climate is continental,mostly semi-arid to arid.Agriculture is a significant part of the region’s economy.By its nature of intensive water use,agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change.Population growth and irrigation development have significantly increased the demand for water in the region.Major climate change issues include melting glaciers and a shrinking snowpack,which are the foundation of the region’s water resources,and a changing precipitation regime.Most glaciers are located in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan,leading to transboundary water resource issues.Summer already has extremely high temperatures.Analyses indicate that Central Asia has been warming and precipitation might be increasing.The warming is expected to increase,but its spatial and temporal distribution depends upon specific global scenarios.Projections of future precipitation show significant uncertainties in type,amount,and distribution.Regional Hydroclimate Projects(RHPs)are an approach to studying these issues.Initial steps to develop an RHP began in 2021 with a widely distributed online survey about these climate issues.It was followed up with an online workshop and then,in 2023,an in-person workshop,held in Tashkent,Uzbekistan.Priorities for the Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)project for the region include both observations and modeling,as well as development of better and additional precipitation observations,all of which are topics for the next workshop.A well-designed RHP should lead to reductions in critical climate uncertainties in policy-relevant timeframes that can influence decisions on necessary investments in climate adaptation.

Potential distribution of Haloxylon ammodendron in Central Asia under climate change

Understanding the spatial distribution of plant species and their dynamic changes in arid areas is crucial for addressing the challenges posed by climate change.Haloxylon ammodendron shelterbelts are essential for the protection of plant resources and the control of desertification in Central Asia.Thus far,the potential suitable habitats of H.ammodendron in Central Asia are still uncertain in the future under global climate change conditions.This study utilised the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model to combine the current distribution data of H.ammodendron with its growth-related data to analyze the potential distribution pattern of H.ammodendron across Central Asia.The results show that there are suitable habitats of H.ammodendron in the Aralkum Desert,northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains,and the upstream of the Tarim River and western edge of the Taklimakan Desert in the Tarim Basin under the current climate conditions.The period from 2021 to 2040 is projected to undergo significant changes in the suitable habitat area of H.ammodendron in Central Asia,with a projected 15.0% decrease in the unsuitable habitat area.Inland areas farther from the ocean,such as the Caspian Sea and Aralkum Desert,will continue to experience a decrease in the suitable habitats of H.ammodendron.Regions exhibiting frequent fluctuations in the habitat suitability levels are primarily found along the axis stretching from Astana to Kazakhskiy Melkosopochnik in Kazakhstan.These regions can transition into suitable habitats under varying climate conditions,requiring the implementation of appropriate human intervention measures to prevent desertification.Future climate conditions are expected to cause an eastward shift in the geometric centre of the potential suitable habitats of H.ammodendron,with the extent of this shift amplifying alongside more greenhouse gas emissions.This study can provide theoretical support for the spatial configuration of H.ammodendron shelterbelts and desertification control in Central Asia,emphasising the importance of proactive measures to adapt to climate change in the future.

Population genetic insights into the conservation of common walnut(Juglans regia)in Central Asia

The common walnut(Juglans regia)is one of the most economically important nut trees cultivated worldwide.Despite its importance,no comprehensive evaluation of walnut tree population genetics has been undertaken across the range where it originated,Central Asia.In this study,we investigated the genetic diversity and population structure of 1082 individuals from 46 populations across Central Asia.We found moderate genetic diversity of J.regia across Central Asia,with 46 populations clustered into three groups with a weak relationship between genetic and geographic distance.Our findings reveal that the western Himalaya might be the core region of common walnut genetic diversity in Central Asia and that,except for two populations in Gongliu Wild Walnut Valley,humans might have introduced walnut populations to Xinjiang,China.The observed distribution of the genetic landscape has probably been affected by historical climate fluctuation,breeding system,and prolonged anthropogenic activity.We propose the conservation of the core genetic diversity resources in the western Himalaya and pay special attention to populations from Gongliu in Xinjiang.These findings enhance our understanding of the genetic variation throughout the distribution range of J.regia in Central Asia,which will provide a key prerequisite for evidence-based conservation and management.

Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of ecosystem services in Central Asia

Land use/land cover(LULC)change and climate change are two major factors affecting the provision of ecosystem services which are closely related to human well-being.However,a clear understanding of the relationships between these two factors and ecosystem services in Central Asia is still lacking.This study aimed to comprehensively assess ecosystem services in Central Asia and analyze how they are impacted by changes in LULC and climate.The spatiotemporal patterns of three ecosystem services during the period of 2000-2015,namely the net primary productivity(NPP),water yield,and soil retention,were quantified and mapped by the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA)model,Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model,and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE).Scenarios were used to determine the relative importance and combined effect of LULC change and climate change on ecosystem services.Then,the relationships between climate factors(precipitation and temperature)and ecosystem services,as well as between LULC change and ecosystem services,were further discussed.The results showed that the high values of ecosystem services appeared in the southeast of Central Asia.Among the six biomes(alpine forest region(AFR),alpine meadow region(AMR),typical steppe region(TSR),desert steppe region(DSR),desert region(DR),and lake region(LR)),the values of ecosystem services followed the order of AFR>AMR>TSR>DSR>DR>LR.In addition,the values of ecosystem services fluctuated during the period of 2000-2015,with the most significant decreases observed in the southeast mountainous area and northwest of Central Asia.LULC change had a greater impact on the NPP,while climate change had a stronger influence on the water yield and soil retention.The combined LULC change and climate change exhibited a significant synergistic effect on ecosystem services in most of Central Asia.Moreover,ecosystem services were more strongly and positively correlated with precipitation than with temperature.The greening of desert areas and forest land expansion could improve ecosystem services,but unreasonable development of cropland and urbanization have had an adverse impact on ecosystem services.According to the results,ecological stability in Central Asia can be achieved through the natural vegetation protection,reasonable urbanization,and ecological agriculture development.

Black Carbon Size in Snow of Chinese Altai Mountain in Central Asia

Black carbon(BC)in snow plays an important role to accelerate snow melting.However,current studies mostly focused on BC concentrations,few on their size distributions in snow which affected BC’s effect on albedo changes.Here we presented refractory BC(rBC)concentrations and size distributions in snow collected from Chinese Altai Mountains in Central Asia from November 2016 to April 2017.The results revealed that the average rBC concentrations were 5.77 and2.82 ng g-1for the surface snow and sub-surface snow,which were relatively higher in the melting season(April)than that in winter(November-January).The mass median volume-equivalent diameter of rBC size in surface snow was approximately at 120-150 nm,which was typically smaller than that in the atmosphere(about 200 nm for urban atmosphere).However,there existed no specific mass median volume-equivalent diameter of BC size for sub-surface snow in winter.While during the melting season,the median mass size of rBC in sub-surface snow was similar to that in surface snow.Backward trajectories indicated that anthropogenic sourced BC dominated rBC in snow(70%-85%).This study will promote our understanding on BC size distributions in snow,and highlight the possible impact of BC size on climate effect.

The role of natural resources in financial expansion:evidence from Central Asia

Central Asian States(CAS)have diverse natural resources.This research aims to shed light on the finance–natural resource’s association in the context of CAS namely Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan in 1996–2020 using the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag technique.It seeks to examine the research question,“What is the effect of natural resource wealth on the financial expansion(FE)of Central Asia?”The results demonstrated an inverted U-shaped association between financial growth and natural resource rents.It implies that natural resources are initially a“resource blessing”that later becomes a“resource curse.”Additionally,the effect of institutional quality(INQ)and human development(HD)on financial growth is examined.The results reveal that INQ and HD positively affect FE.Moreover,a bidirectional causal relationship exists between FE and INQ.Finally,all variables contribute to a long term FE.Based on these outcomes,the major policy recommendations are that the CAS authorities diversify their financial services and products and direct the proceeds from natural resource rents to effective invest-ments particularly in HD.In addition,the social and political infrastructures in CAS must be restructured to achieve a high-quality institutional environment,which is necessary to increase the role of the private sector.

Temporal and spatial variation of cloud cover in arid regions of Central Asia in the last 40 years

Water resources are one of the key factors restricting the development of arid areas,and cloud water resources is an important part of water resources.The arid region of central Asia is the core region of the current national green silk road construction,and is the largest arid region in the world.Based on cloud cover data of ECMWF,the current study analyzed temporal and spatial characteristics of cloud properties in arid regions of Central Asia between 1980 and 2019.Our findings show that:(1)From the point of view of spatial distribution,total cloudiness in arid regions of Central Asia was low in the south and high in the north.The distribution of high cloud frequency and medium cloud frequency was higher in the south and lower in the north,while low cloud frequency distribution was low in the south and high in the north.(2)In terms of time,the variation of cloud cover and cloud type frequency had obvious seasonal characteristics.From winter to spring,cloud cover increased,and the change of cloud type frequency increased.From spring to summer,cloud cover continued to increase and the change of cloud type frequency increased further.Cloud cover began to decrease from summer to autumn,and the change of cloud type frequency also decreased.(3)Generally,average total cloud cover decreased in most of central Asia,and high and medium cloud cover increased while low cloud cover decreased.This study provides a reference for the rational development of cloud resources in the region.

China-Central Asia Relations and Role of the Belt and Road Initiative

China is moving to greater economic and political influence in the global scale.One of the Chinese strategy for“go global”is Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)which was announced by President Xi Jinping in 2013.The BRI includes a significant number of countries from Asia,Central Asia,the Middle East,Africa,and Europe.In this framework,China relations with Central Asia are an important part of the BRI project.The BRI is not merely an economic project as framed by Beijing,but that it represents a new stage in China’s engagement with the Central Asian republics.The Belt and Road Initiative is highly likely to become China’s most significant contribution to Central Asia economic development.This would affect the China-Central Asia relations economically and politically.

Oil and gas cooperation between China and Central Asia in an environment of political and resource competition

This paper investigates Central Asia＇s oil and gas resources, special geopolitics and energy competition, and approaches, challenges and prospects in cooperation between China and Central Asia. The objective is to propose measures for oil and gas cooperation between China and Central Asia. Central Asia is rich in oil and gas resources. Its remaining recoverable reserves of crude oil and natural gas account for 1.9% and 10.6 %, respectively, of the world＇s total reserves. Moreover, there is great exploration and development potential. As a strategic channel connecting Eurasia, Central Asia has a prominent geopolitical status. Many powerful countries such as the United States, Russia and China, as well as Europe, have an intense energy competition in Central Asia. In the oil and gas cooperation with Central Asia, the China National Petroleum Corporation （CNPC） focuses on establishing a coordination group, promoting overall oil and gas business opportunities and sustainable development, innovating and applying specialty engineering technology and improving project economic benefits. Through its efforts over the last nearly two decades, the China National Petroleum Corporation has completed a 50-million-tonne a year oil and gas production centre in Central Asia and oil and gas pipelines passing through multiple countries, becoming an important channel for securing China＇s energy imports. If appropriate measures are taken in the ＇Thirteenth Five-Year Plan＇ period or later, the China National Petroleum Corporation will develop a 100-million-tonne p.a. oil and gas production centre in Central Asia and a strategic oil and gas import channel exceeding this amount of production. This cooperation between China and Central Asia is however faced with the following challenges： increasing multinational competition uncertainty, potential risks in the political systems of Central Asian countries, frequently occurring violence and also resource policy tightening in Central Asia. To further oil and gas cooperation with Central Asia, it is recommended that China should develop an energy acquisition strategy, assign a regional energy ambassador, enhance oil and gas supply by mergers and acquisitions, establish regional multinational subsidiaries and improve its risk prevention system.

Precipitation trends and variability from 1950 to 2000 in arid lands of Central Asia

Climate warming will cause differences in precipitation distribution and changes in hydrological cycle both at regional and global scales. Arid lands of Central Asia （ALCA）, one of the largest arid regions at the middle latitudes in the world, is likely to be strongly influenced by climate warming. Understanding the precipitation varia- tions in the past is an important prerequisite for predicting future precipitation trends and thus managing regional water resources in such an arid region. In this study, we used run theory, displacement, extreme deviation theory, precipitation concentration index （PCI）, Mann-Kendall rank correlation and climatic trend coefficient methods to analyze the precipitation in wet and dry years, changes in precipitation over multiple-time scales, variability of precipitation and its rate of change based on the monthly precipitation data during 1950-2000 from 344 meteorological stations in the ALCA. The occurrence probability of a single year with abundant precipitation was higher than that of a single year with less precipitation. The average duration of extreme drought in the entire area was 5 years, with an average annual water deficit of 34.6 mm （accounting for 11.2% of the average annual precipitation over the duration）. The occurrence probability of a single wet year was slightly higher than that of a single dry year. The occurrence probability of more than 5 consecutive wet years was 5.8%, while the occurrence probability of more than 5 consecutive dry years was 6.2%. In the center of the study area, the distribution of precipitation was stable at an intra-annual timescale, with small changes at an inter-annual timescale. In the western part of the study area, the monthly variation of precipitation was high at an inter-annual timescale. There were clear seasonal changes in precipitation （PC1=12-36） in the ALCA. Precipitation in spring and winter accounted for 37.7% and 24.4% of the annual precipitation, respectively There was a significant inter-annual change in precipitation in the arid Northwest China （PC1=24-34）. Annual precipitation increased significantly （P=0.05） in 17.4% of all the meteorological stations over the study period. The probability of an increase in annual precipitation was 75.6%, with this increase being significant （P=-0.05） at 34.0% of all the meteorological stations. The average increasing rate in annual precipitation was 3.9 mm/10a （P=0.01） in the ALCA. There were significant increasing trends （P=0.01） in precipitation in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, with rates of 2.6, 3.1 and 3.7 mm/10a, respectively.

Spatio-temporal pattern and changes of evapotranspiration in arid Central Asia and Xinjiang of China

Accurate inversion of land surface evapotranspiration （ET） in arid areas is of great significance for understanding global eco-hydrological process and exploring the spatio-temporal variation and ecological response of water resources. It is also important in the functional evaluation of regional water cycle and water balance, as well as the rational allocation and management of water resources. This study, based on model validation analysis at varied scales in fiwe Central Asian countries and China＇s Xinjiang, developed an appropriate approach for ET inversion in arid lands. The actual ET during growing seasons of the study area was defined, and the changes in water participating in evaporation in regional water cycle were then educed. The results show the simulation error of SEBS （Surface Energy Balance System） model under cloud amount consideration was 1.34% at 30-m spatial scale, 2.75% at 1-km spatial scale and 6,37% at 4-kin spatial scale. ET inversion for 1980-2007 applying SEBS model in the study area indicates： （1） the evaporation depth （May-September） by land types descends in the order of waters （660.24 ram） 〉 cultivated land （464.66 mm） 〉 woodland （388.44 mm） 〉 urbanized land （168.16 mm） 〉 grassland （160.48 mm） 〉 unused land （83.08 mm）; and （2） ET during the 2005 growing season in Xinjiang and Central Asia was 2,168.68x108 m3 （with an evaporation/precipitation ratio of 1.05） and 9,741.03x108 m3 （with an evaporation/precipitation ratio of 1.4）, respectively. The results unveiled the spatio-temporal variation rules of ET process in arid areas, providing a reference for further research on the water cycle and water balance in similar arid regions.

Fidelity of the APHRODITE Dataset in Representing Extreme Precipitation over Central Asia

Using rain-gauge-observation daily precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network(V3.25)and the Chinese Surface Daily Climate Dataset(V3.0),this study investigates the fidelity of the AHPRODITE dataset in representing extreme precipitation,in terms of the extreme precipitation threshold value,occurrence number,probability of detection,and extremal dependence index during the cool(October to April)and warm(May to September)seasons in Central Asia during 1961–90.The distribution of extreme precipitation is characterized by large extreme precipitation threshold values and high occurrence numbers over the mountainous areas.The APHRODITE dataset is highly correlated with the gauge-observation precipitation data and can reproduce the spatial distributions of the extreme precipitation threshold value and total occurrence number.However,APHRODITE generally underestimates the extreme precipitation threshold values,while it overestimates the total numbers of extreme precipitation events,particularly over the mountainous areas.These biases can be attributed to the overestimation of light rainfall and the underestimation of heavy rainfall induced by the rainfall distribution–based interpolation.Such deficits are more evident for the warm season than the cool season,and thus the biases are more pronounced in the warm season than in the cool season.The probability of detection and extremal dependence index reveal that APHRODITE has a good capability of detecting extreme precipitation,particularly in the cool season.

The PMIP3 Simulated Climate Changes over Arid Central Asia during the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum

In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were investigated using multimodel simulations derived from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3(PMIP3). During the MH, the multimodel median(MMM) shows that in the core region of ACA, the regionally averaged annual surface air temperature(SAT) decreases by 0.13°C and annual precipitation decreases by 3.45%, compared with the preindustrial(PI) climate. The MMM of the SAT increases by 1.67/0.13°C in summer/autumn, whereas it decreases by 1.23/1.11°C in spring/winter. The amplitude of the seasonal cycles of the SAT increases over ACA due to different MH orbital parameters. For precipitation, the regionally averaged MMM decreases by 5.77%/5.69%/0.39%/5.24% in spring/summer/autumn/winter, respectively. Based on the analysis of the aridity index(AI), compared with the PI, a drier climate appears in southern Central Asia and western Xinjiang due to decreasing precipitation. During the LGM, the MMM shows that the regionally averaged SAT decreases by 5.04/4.36/4.70/5.12/5.88°C and precipitation decreases by 27.78%/28.16%/31.56%/27.74%/23.29% annually and in the spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Robust drying occurs throughout almost the whole core area. Decreasing precipitation plays a dominant role in shaping the drier conditions, whereas strong cooling plays a secondary but opposite role. In response to the LGM external forcings, over Central Asia and Xinjiang, the seasonal cycle of precipitation has a smaller amplitude compared with that under the PI climate. In the model-data comparison, the simulated MH moisture changes over ACA are to some extent consistent with the reconstructions, further confirming that drier conditions occurred during that period than during the PI.

Spatial differentiation in stable isotope compositions of surface waters and its environmental significance in the Issyk-Kul Lake region of Central Asia

Stable isotope values of oxygen （180） and hydrogen （2H） of surface waters were used to study the origin and environmental significanees in the Issyk-Kul basin of Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia, which is the most important intermountain basin in the modern Tien Shan orogen. This study is the first analysis of hydrochemical spatial differentiation in the stable isotopes of surface waters in this watershed. 75 samples were collected from rivers, springs, lakes, rain and snow during the rainy season in July and August of 2o16. Stable isotopes of 180 and 2H were studied for all samples, and cation ratios （Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca） were also determined for lake water samples. Stable isotope values from precipitation scattered around the Local Meteoric Water Line （determined from Urumqi Station of the global network of isotopes in precipitation （GNIP））, together with values of the Deuterium excess parameter （d） from 15.3‰ to 30.5‰, with an average of 19.8‰, indicating that the moisture sources are primarily from regions with low relative humidity. The 8180 and 52H values were significantly different between the river and lake samples, indicating that regional evaporation caused the isotopic enrichment of lake water. Geospatial autocorrelation, measured by Moran＇s I coefficient, indicated weak spatial autocorrelation within stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in the surface waters of the studied area, which is primarily an effect of climate during the water chemistry evolution. The cation ratios Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca in lake water samples were not correlated with the concentration of total dissolved solids, but did show correlation with stable isotopic values, which is significant for paleoenvironmental reconstruction.

Earth Core’s stresses variation in Central Asian earthquakes region

Tecto nic stresses of Ce ntral Asia(limited by geographic coo rdinates 36-46°N,56-76°E)over the rece nt times are modeled based on moment elasticity,taking into account the focal mechanism of earthquakes.Numerical results obtained by the method of boundary integral equations.The relief of the earth’s surface,built on the map of Central Asia used to verify the solution of the inverse elasticity problem.The moment elasticity equations are simplified by assumingωk=εijkμi,j,which makes it possible to return to classical theory of elasticity,with the difference that the stress tensor ceases to be symmetricσij≠σji.Based on the specifics of the geodynamic formulation of problems,the three-dimensional model reduced to a two-dimensional model for averaged stresses and displacements.According to the results,a displacement field was constructed,which is fully consistent with the movements of the earth’s surface,established by the GPS method.The model makes it possible to determine stresses variations in the region from earthquakes occurring in Central Asia.

Spatial and temporal patterns of the inter-annual oscillations of glacier mass over Central Asia inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE) data

Monitoring glacier mass balance is crucial to managing water resources and also to understanding climate change for the arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia. This study extracted the inter-annual oscillations of glacier mass over Central Asia from the first ten principal components（S-PCs） of filtered variability via multichannel singular spectral analysis（MSSA）, based on gridded data of glacier mass inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） data obtained from July 2002 to March 2015. Two significant cycles of glacier mass balance oscillations were identified. The first cycle with a period of 6.1-year accounted for 54.5% of the total variance and the second with a period of 2.3-year accounted for 4.3%. The 6.1-year oscillation exhibited a stronger variability compared with the 2.3-year oscillation. For the 6.1-year oscillation, the results from lagged cross-correlation function suggested that there were significant correlations between glacier mass balances and precipitation variations with the precipitation variations leading the response of glacier mass balances by 9–16 months.

Holocene precipitationδ^18O as an indicator of temperature history in arid central Asia:an overview of recent advances

Holoceneδ^18O records from various archives(ice cores,cave stalagmites,and peat sediments)from the Xinjiang region of northwestern China,in arid central Asia(ACA),are all derived ultimately from local precipitationδ^18O(δ^18Op).Nevertheless,they have been proposed as indicators of different climatic parameters,such as wetness and temperature changes.This article summarizes previously reported records of moisture sources for the Xinjiang region and the results of modern observations conducted at an ice core site and a peat site in the Altai Mountains.The findings are used to propose that the overall positive trends in Holoceneδ^18O records from the various archives from the Xinjiang region primarily reflect the Holocene's long-term warming trend.It is concluded that more site-specific modern observations are needed to further elucidate the environmental significance of Holoceneδ^18O records from this region,especially for the separation of different seasonal temperature signals present withinδ^18O records.

Monitoring recent changes in snow cover in Central Asia using improved MODIS snow-cover products

Snow cover plays an important role in the fields of climatology and cryospheric science. Remotely-sensed data have been proven to be effective in monitoring snow covers. Improved methods to process the 8-day snow-cover products derived from MODIS Terra/Aqua data can dramatically increase the data quality and reduce noise. A five-step algorithm for removing cloud effects was designed to improve the quality of MODIS snow products, and the overall accuracy of the MODIS snow data without cloud（defined as cloud-free snow-cover dataset） was enhanced by more than 90% based on direct and indirect validation methods. The snow-cover frequency（SCF） and snow-cover rate（SCR） of Central Asia were analyzed from 2000 to 2015 using trend analysis and empirical orthogonal functions（EOFs）. Over the plain regions, the SCF displayed a significant north-south declining trend with a rate of 0.03 per degree of latitude, and the SCR showed a similar north-south gradient. In the mountainous areas, the SCF significantly increased with altitude by 0.12 per kilometer. Within the study area, the SCF in 65% of the study area experienced an increasing trend, but only 4.3% of the SCF-increasing pixels passed a significance test. The remaining 35% of the area underwent a decreasing trend of SCF, but only 5.2% of the SCF-decreasing pixels passed a significance test. For the entire Central Asia, the inter-annual variations of snow-cover presented a slight and insignificant increase trend from 2000 to 2015. However, the change trends of snow cover are different between the plain and mountainous regions. That is, the annual mean SCR in the plain areas displayed an increasing trend, but a decreasing trend was found in the mountainous areas.