This paper examines structural changes in China s exchange rate mechanism.For this purpose,we propose a predictive model incorporating three factors that influence the central parity rate:a smoothing factor,a market f...This paper examines structural changes in China s exchange rate mechanism.For this purpose,we propose a predictive model incorporating three factors that influence the central parity rate:a smoothing factor,a market factor,and a basket factor.We first apply the model to analyze the effects of 12 exchange rate reforms since 2005,treating these reforms as predetermined structural breaks.Among other results,we find that the main impact of introducing a“counter-cyclical factor”is to weaken the role of the basket factor.We estimate structural breaks in data,assuming that the number and dates of breaks are unknown,and we find that,although the majority of estimated breaks occur within the neighborhood of exchange rate reforms,there are breaks due to other external shocks such as the escalation of the China-US trade conflict in May 2019.It is suggested that our model may be used to guide future currency reforms in China.展开更多
The Renminbi(RMB)exchange rate regime reform has gone through three stages roughly once every decade since 1994.It is a structural evolution through the unification of dual exchange rates,increased fluctuations and ce...The Renminbi(RMB)exchange rate regime reform has gone through three stages roughly once every decade since 1994.It is a structural evolution through the unification of dual exchange rates,increased fluctuations and central parity rate reform in response to the dynamic macro environment in China and abroad.This paper unpacks leading and supporting reforms for each stage and reviews the effects.The reform has developed historical experience in adopting progressive strategies,avoiding sharp exchange rate fluctuations in the near term,maintaining appropriate capital controls,and guaranteeing the reform through domestic structural reforms.Achieving a free-floating exchange rate will be the ultimate goal,but it will not be made easily in the short run.During the transitional period,it is recommended that an annual target zone for RMB's effective exchange rate be arranged for the CFETS currency basket,along with necessary capital controls.展开更多
基金the Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71673183).
文摘This paper examines structural changes in China s exchange rate mechanism.For this purpose,we propose a predictive model incorporating three factors that influence the central parity rate:a smoothing factor,a market factor,and a basket factor.We first apply the model to analyze the effects of 12 exchange rate reforms since 2005,treating these reforms as predetermined structural breaks.Among other results,we find that the main impact of introducing a“counter-cyclical factor”is to weaken the role of the basket factor.We estimate structural breaks in data,assuming that the number and dates of breaks are unknown,and we find that,although the majority of estimated breaks occur within the neighborhood of exchange rate reforms,there are breaks due to other external shocks such as the escalation of the China-US trade conflict in May 2019.It is suggested that our model may be used to guide future currency reforms in China.
基金funded by the Center for Modern Financial Studies under Shanghai Jiao Tong University,presents the latest progress in CASS's innovation project on Development Trends and Interconnections of Global and Chinese Financial Markets.
文摘The Renminbi(RMB)exchange rate regime reform has gone through three stages roughly once every decade since 1994.It is a structural evolution through the unification of dual exchange rates,increased fluctuations and central parity rate reform in response to the dynamic macro environment in China and abroad.This paper unpacks leading and supporting reforms for each stage and reviews the effects.The reform has developed historical experience in adopting progressive strategies,avoiding sharp exchange rate fluctuations in the near term,maintaining appropriate capital controls,and guaranteeing the reform through domestic structural reforms.Achieving a free-floating exchange rate will be the ultimate goal,but it will not be made easily in the short run.During the transitional period,it is recommended that an annual target zone for RMB's effective exchange rate be arranged for the CFETS currency basket,along with necessary capital controls.
