In 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a thermodynamic model based on the Greenhouse Effect, aiming to forecast global temperatures. This study delves into the intricacies of that model...In 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a thermodynamic model based on the Greenhouse Effect, aiming to forecast global temperatures. This study delves into the intricacies of that model. Some interesting observations are revealed. The IPCC model equated average temperatures with average energy fluxes, which can cause significant errors. The model assumed that all energy fluxes remained constant, and the Earth emitted infrared radiation as if it were a blackbody. Neither of those conditions exists. The IPCC’s definition of Climate Change only includes events caused by human actions, excluding most causes. Satellite data aimed at the tops of clouds may have inferred a high Greenhouse Gas absorption flux. The model showed more energy coming from the atmosphere than absorbed from the sun, which may have caused a violation of the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics. There were unexpectedly large gaps in the satellite data that aligned with various absorption bands of Greenhouse Gases, possibly caused by photon scattering associated with re-emissions. Based on science, we developed a cloud-based climate model that complied with the Radiation Laws and the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics. The Cloud Model showed that 81.3% of the outgoing reflected and infrared radiation was applicable to the clouds and water vapor. In comparison, the involvement of CO<sub>2</sub> was only 0.04%, making it too minuscule to measure reliably.展开更多
Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role...Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.展开更多
Analysis of catchment Land use/Land cover (LULC) change is a vital tool in ensuring sustainable catchment management. The study analyzed land use/land cover changes in the Rwizi catchment, south western Uganda from 19...Analysis of catchment Land use/Land cover (LULC) change is a vital tool in ensuring sustainable catchment management. The study analyzed land use/land cover changes in the Rwizi catchment, south western Uganda from 1989-2019 and projected the trend by 2040. Landsat images, field observations, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were used to collect data. Changes in cropland, forestland, built up area, grazing land, wetland and open water bodies were analyzed in ArcGIS version 10.2.2 and ERDAS IMAGINE 14 software and a Markov chain model. All the LULC classes increased in area except grazing land. Forest land and builtup area between 2009-2019 increased by 370.03% and 229.53% respectively. Projections revealed an increase in forest land and builtup area by 2030 and only built up area by 2040. LULCC in the catchment results from population pressure, reduced soil fertility and high value of agricultural products.展开更多
Speed limit measures are ubiquitous due to the complexity of the road environment,which can be supplied with the help of vehicle to everything(V2X)communication technology.Therefore,the influence of speed limit on tra...Speed limit measures are ubiquitous due to the complexity of the road environment,which can be supplied with the help of vehicle to everything(V2X)communication technology.Therefore,the influence of speed limit on traffic system will be investigated to construct a two-lane lattice model accounting for the speed limit effect during the lane change process under V2X environment.Accordingly,the stability condition and the mKdV equation are closely associated with the speed limit effect through theory analysis.Moreover,the evolution of density and hysteresis loop is simulated to demonstrate the positive role of the speed limit effect on traffic stability in the cases of strong reaction intensity and high limited speed.展开更多
Potential natural vegetation(PNV)is a valuable reference for ecosystem renovation and has garnered increasing attention worldwide.However,there is limited knowledge on the spatio-temporal distributions,transitional pr...Potential natural vegetation(PNV)is a valuable reference for ecosystem renovation and has garnered increasing attention worldwide.However,there is limited knowledge on the spatio-temporal distributions,transitional processes,and underlying mechanisms of global natural vegetation,particularly in the case of ongoing climate warming.In this study,we visualize the spatio-temporal pattern and inter-transition procedure of global PNV,analyse the shifting distances and directions of global PNV under the influence of climatic disturbance,and explore the mechanisms of global PNV in response to temperature and precipitation fluctuations.To achieve this,we utilize meteorological data,mainly temperature and precipitation,from six phases:the Last Inter-Glacial(LIG),the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM),the Mid Holocene(MH),the Present Day(PD),2030(20212040)and 2090(2081–2100),and employ a widely-accepted comprehensive and sequential classification sy–stem(CSCS)for global PNV classification.We find that the spatial patterns of five PNV groups(forest,shrubland,savanna,grassland and tundra)generally align with their respective ecotopes,although their distributions have shifted due to fluctuating temperature and precipitation.Notably,we observe an unexpected transition between tundra and savanna despite their geographical distance.The shifts in distance and direction of five PNV groups are mainly driven by temperature and precipitation,although there is heterogeneity among these shifts for each group.Indeed,the heterogeneity observed among different global PNV groups suggests that they may possess varying capacities to adjust to and withstand the impacts of changing climate.The spatio-temporal distributions,mutual transitions and shift tendencies of global PNV and its underlying mechanism in face of changing climate,as revealed in this study,can significantly contribute to the development of strategies for mitigating warming and promoting re-vegetation in degraded regions worldwide.展开更多
Three-dimensional geochemical modeling of ore-forming elements is crucial for predicting deep mineralization.This approach provides key information for the quantitative prediction of deep mineral localization,three-di...Three-dimensional geochemical modeling of ore-forming elements is crucial for predicting deep mineralization.This approach provides key information for the quantitative prediction of deep mineral localization,three-dimensional fine interpolation,analysis of spatial distribution patterns,and extraction of quantitative mineral-seeking markers.The Yechangping molybdenum(Mo)deposit is a significant and extensive porphyry-skarn deposit in the East Qinling-Dabie Mo polymetallic metallogenic belt at the southern margin of the North China Block.Abundant borehole data on oreforming elements underpin deep geochemical predictions.The methodology includes the following steps:(1)Threedimensional geological modeling of the deposit was established.(2)Correlation,cluster,and factor analyses post delineation of mineralization stages and determination of mineral generation sequence to identify(Cu,Pb,Zn,Ag)and(Mo,W,mfe)assemblages.(3)A three-dimensional geochemical block model was constructed for Mo,W,mfe,Cu,Zn,Pb,and Ag using the ordinary kriging method,and the variational function was developed.(4)Spatial distribution and enrichment characteristics analysis of ore-forming elements are performed to extract geological information,employing the variogram and w(Cu+Pb+Zn+Ag)/w(Mo+W)as predictive indicators.(5)Identifying the western,northwestern,and southwestern areas of the mine with limited mineralization potential,contrasted by the northeastern and southeastern areas favorable for mineral exploration.展开更多
BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis(AP)encompasses a spectrum of pancreatic inflammatory conditions,ranging from mild inflammation to severe pancreatic necrosis and multisystem organ failure.Given the challenges associated ...BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis(AP)encompasses a spectrum of pancreatic inflammatory conditions,ranging from mild inflammation to severe pancreatic necrosis and multisystem organ failure.Given the challenges associated with obtaining human pancreatic samples,research on AP predominantly relies on animal models.In this study,we aimed to elucidate the fundamental molecular mechanisms underlying AP using various AP models.AIM To investigate the shared molecular changes underlying the development of AP across varying severity levels.METHODS AP was induced in animal models through treatment with caerulein alone or in combination with lipopolysaccharide(LPS).Additionally,using Ptf1αto drive the specific expression of the hM3 promoter in pancreatic acinar cells transgenic C57BL/6J-hM3/Ptf1α(cre)mice were administered Clozapine N-oxide to induce AP.Subsequently,we conducted RNA sequencing of pancreatic tissues and validated the expression of significantly different genes using the Gene Expression Omnibus(GEO)database.RESULTS Caerulein-induced AP showed severe inflammation and edema,which were exacerbated when combined with LPS and accompanied by partial pancreatic tissue necrosis.Compared with the control group,RNA sequencing analysis revealed 880 significantly differentially expressed genes in the caerulein model and 885 in the caerulein combined with the LPS model.Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes enrichment analysis and Gene Set Enrichment Analysis indicated substantial enrichment of the TLR and NOD-like receptor signaling pathway,TLR signaling pathway,and NF-κB signaling pathway,alongside elevated levels of apoptosis-related pathways,such as apoptosis,P53 pathway,and phagosome pathway.The significantly elevated genes in the TLR and NOD-like receptor signaling pathways,as well as in the apoptosis pathway,were validated through quantitative real-time PCR experiments in animal models.Validation from the GEO database revealed that only MYD88 concurred in both mouse pancreatic tissue and human AP peripheral blood,while TLR1,TLR7,RIPK3,and OAS2 genes exhibited marked elevation in human AP.The genes TUBA1A and GADD45A played significant roles in apoptosis within human AP.The transgenic mouse model hM3/Ptf1α(cre)successfully validated significant differential genes in the TLR and NOD-like receptor signaling pathways as well as the apoptosis pathway,indicating that these pathways represent shared pathological processes in AP across different models.CONCLUSION The TLR and NOD receptor signaling pathways play crucial roles in the inflammatory progression of AP,notably the MYD88 gene.Apoptosis holds a central position in the necrotic processes of AP,with TUBA1A and GADD45A genes exhibiting prominence in human AP.展开更多
The paper presents the results of comprehensive studies of filtration and capacitance properties of highly porous reservoir rocks of the aquifer of an underground gas storage facility.The geomechanical part of the res...The paper presents the results of comprehensive studies of filtration and capacitance properties of highly porous reservoir rocks of the aquifer of an underground gas storage facility.The geomechanical part of the research included studying the dependence of rock permeability on the stress-strain state in the vicinity of the wells,and physical modeling of the implementation of the method of increasing the permeability of the wellbore zone-the method of directional unloading of the reservoir.The digital part of the research included computed tomography(CT)-based computer analysis of the internal structure,pore space characteristics,and filtration properties before and after the tests.According to the results of physical modeling of deformation and filtration processes,it is found that the permeability of rocks before fracture depends on the stress-strain state insignificantly,and this influence is reversible.However,when downhole pressure reaches 7-8 MPa,macrocracks in the rock begin to grow,accompanied by irreversible permeability increase.Porosity,geodesic tortuosity and permeability values were obtained based on digital studies and numerical modeling.A weak degree of transversal anisotropy of the filtration properties of rocks was detected.Based on the analysis of pore size distribution,pressure field and flow velocities,high homogeneity and connectivity of the rock pore space is shown.The absence of pronounced changes in pore space characteristics and pore permeability after non-uniform triaxial loading rocks was shown.On the basis of geometrical analysis of pore space,the reasons for weak permeability anisotropy were identified.The filtration-capacitance properties obtained from the digital analysis showed very good agreement with the results of field and laboratory measurements.The physical modeling has confirmed the efficiency of application of the directional unloading method for the reservoir under study.The necessary parameters of its application were calculated:bottomhole geometry,stage of operation,stresses and pressure drawdown value.展开更多
安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事...安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。展开更多
Land use/cover change(LUCC)plays a key role in altering surface hydrology and water balance,finally affect-ing the security and availability of water resources.However,mechanisms underlying LUCC determination of water...Land use/cover change(LUCC)plays a key role in altering surface hydrology and water balance,finally affect-ing the security and availability of water resources.However,mechanisms underlying LUCC determination of water-balance processes at the basin scale remain unclear.In this study,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model and partial least squares regression were used to detect the effects of LUCC on hydrology and water components in the Zuli River Basin(ZRB),a typical watershed of the Yellow River Basin.In general,three recommended coefficients(R^(2)and E ns greater than 0.5,and P bias less than 20%)indicated that the output results of the SWAT model were reliable and that the model was effective for the ZRB.Then,several key findings were obtained.First,LUCC in the ZRB was characterized by a significant increase in forest(21.61%)and settlement(23.52%)and a slight reduction in cropland(-1.35%),resulting in a 4.93%increase in evapotranspiration and a clear decline in surface runoffand water yield by 15.68%and 2.95%at the whole basin scale,respectively.Second,at the sub-basin scale,surface runoffand water yield increased by 14.26%-36.15%and 5.13%-15.55%,respectively,mainly due to settlement increases.Last,partial least squares regression indicated that urbanization was the most significant contributor to runoffchange,and evapotranspiration change was mainly driven by forest expansion.These conclusions are significant for understanding the relationship between LUCC and water balance,which can provide meaningful information for managing water resources and the long-term sustainability of such watersheds.展开更多
In recent years,Meloidogyne enterolobii has emerged as a major parasitic nematode infesting many plants in tropical or subtropical areas.However,the regions of potential distribution and the main contributing environm...In recent years,Meloidogyne enterolobii has emerged as a major parasitic nematode infesting many plants in tropical or subtropical areas.However,the regions of potential distribution and the main contributing environmental variables for this nematode are unclear.Under the current climate scenario,we predicted the potential geographic distributions of M.enterolobii worldwide and in China using a Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model with the occurrence data of this species.Furthermore,the potential distributions of M.enterolobii were projected under three future climate scenarios(BCC-CSM2-MR,CanESM5 and CNRM-CM6-1)for the periods 2050s and 2090s.Changes in the potential distribution were also predicted under different climate conditions.The results showed that highly suitable regions for M.enterolobii were concentrated in Africa,South America,Asia,and North America between latitudes 30°S to 30°N.Bio16(precipitation of the wettest quarter),bio10(mean temperature of the warmest quarter),and bio11(mean temperature of the coldest quarter)were the variables contributing most in predicting potential distributions of M.enterolobii.In addition,the potential suitable areas for M.enterolobii will shift toward higher latitudes under future climate scenarios.This study provides a theoretical basis for controlling and managing this nematode.展开更多
Considering phase changes associated with a high-temperature molten material cooled down from the outside,this work presents an improvement of the modelling and the numerical simulation of such processes for an applic...Considering phase changes associated with a high-temperature molten material cooled down from the outside,this work presents an improvement of the modelling and the numerical simulation of such processes for an application pertaining to the safety of light water nuclear reactors.Postulating a core meltdown accident,the behaviour of the core melt(aka corium)into a steel vessel is of tremendous importance when evaluating the vessel integrity.Evaluating correctly the heat fluxes requires the numerical simulation of the interaction between the liquid material and its solid counterpart which forms during the solidification process,but also may melt back.To simulate this configuration,encoun-tered in various industrial applications,one considers a bi-phase model constituted by a liquid phase in contact and interaction with its solid phase.The liquid phase may solidify in presence of low energetic source,while the solid phase may melt due to an intense heat flux from the high-temperature liquid.In the frame of the in-house legacy code,several simplifying assumptions(0D multi-layer discretization,instantaneous heat transfer via a quadratic temperature profile in solids)are made for the modelling of such phase changes.In the present work,these shortcomings are illustrated and further overcome by solving a 2D heat conduction model in the solid by a mixed Raviart-Thomas finite element method coupled to the liquid phase due to heat and mass exchanges through Stefan condition.The liquid phase is modeled with a 0D multi-layer approach.The 0D-liquid and 2D-solid mod-els are coupled by a Stefan like phase change interface model.Several sanity checks are performed to assess the validity of the approach on 1D and 2D academical configurations for which exact or reference solutions are available.Then more advanced situations(genu-ine multi-dimensional phase changes and an"industrial-like scenario")are simulated to verify the appropriate behavior of the obtained coupled simulation scheme.展开更多
This paper presents the results of Rainfall-Runoff modeling and simulation of hydrological responses under changing climate using HEC-HMS model. The basin spatial data was processed by HEC-GeoHMS and imported to HEC-H...This paper presents the results of Rainfall-Runoff modeling and simulation of hydrological responses under changing climate using HEC-HMS model. The basin spatial data was processed by HEC-GeoHMS and imported to HEC-HMS. The calibration and validation of the HEC-HMS model was done using the observed hydrometeorological data (1989-2018) and HEC-GeoHMS output data. The goodness-of-fit of the model was measured using three performance indices: Nash and Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) = 0.8, Coefficient of Determination (R<sup>2</sup>) = 0.8, and Percent Difference (D) = 0.03, with values showing very good performance of the model. Finally, the optimized HEC-HMS model has been applied to simulate the hydrological responses of Upper Baro Basin to the projected climate change for mid-term (2040s) and long-term (2090s) A1B emission scenarios. The simulation results have shown a mean annual percent decrease of 3.6 and an increase of 8.1 for Baro River flow in the 2040s and 2090s scenarios, respectively, compared to the baseline period (2000s). A pronounced flow variation is rather observed on a seasonal basis, reaching a reduction of 50% in spring and an increase of 50% in autumn for both mid-term and long-term scenarios with respect to the base period. Generally, the rainfall-runoff model is developed to solve, in a complementary way, the two main problems in water resources management: the lack of gauged sites and future hydrological response to climate change data of the basin and the region in general. The study results imply that seasonal and time variation in the hydrologic cycle would most likely cause hydrologic extremes. And hence, the developed model and output data are of paramount importance for adaptive strategies and sustainable water resources development in the basin.展开更多
[Objectives]To explore the characteristics of land use change and its main influencing factors in Mojiang County from 2000 to 2020,and try to provide a scientific reference for alleviating the contradiction between ma...[Objectives]To explore the characteristics of land use change and its main influencing factors in Mojiang County from 2000 to 2020,and try to provide a scientific reference for alleviating the contradiction between man and land in Mojiang County and realizing the sustainable development of regional land resources.[Methods]Based on the land cover data and socio-economic data of Mojiang County from 2000 to 2020,the dynamic degree of land use,land use transfer matrix and center-of-gravity transfer model were calculated,and the temporal and spatial change characteristics and driving factors of various types of land use were calculated by PLUS model.[Results]From 2000 to 2020,the area and proportion of grassland,waters and construction land in Mojiang County showed an upward trend,while the area and proportion of cultivated land and forest land showed a downward trend.Among them,cultivated land was mainly converted into forest land and grassland,and some were converted into waters and construction land;forest land was mainly converted into cultivated land and grassland,and part of it was converted into waters and construction land.From 2000 to 2020,the center-of-gravity of cultivated land,forest land and construction land in Mojiang County moved to the southeast of the county,and the moving rates were 0.66,1.97 and 10.58 km/yr,respectively;the center-of-gravity of grassland and waters moved to the southwest of the county,and the moving rates were 1.30 and 20.20 km/yr,respectively.Distance from road,distance from government and distance from waters are the main driving forces affecting land use change in Mojiang County;the forecast shows that in 2040,the area of grassland and forest land in Mojiang County will continue to decrease,the area of cultivated land will turn to rise,and the area of waters and construction land will continue to rise.[Conclusions]Reasonable planning and optimizing the allocation of cultivated land and forest land structure and strict control of the expansion scale of construction land are necessary measures to ensure the coordinated development of regional land rational use and economic construction.展开更多
Controlled cortical impingement is a widely accepted method to induce traumatic brain injury to establish a traumatic brain injury animal model.A strike depth of 1 mm at a certain speed is recommended for a moderate b...Controlled cortical impingement is a widely accepted method to induce traumatic brain injury to establish a traumatic brain injury animal model.A strike depth of 1 mm at a certain speed is recommended for a moderate brain injury and a depth of>2 mm is used to induce severe brain injury.However,the different effects and underlying mechanisms of these two model types have not been proven.This study investigated the changes in cerebral blood flow,differences in the degree of cortical damage,and differences in motor function under different injury parameters of 1 and 2 mm at injury speeds of 3,4,and 5 m/s.We also explored the functional changes and mitochondrial damage between the 1 and 2 mm groups in the acute(7 days)and chronic phases(30 days).The results showed that the cerebral blood flow in the injured area of the 1 mm group was significantly increased,and swelling and bulging of brain tissue,increased vascular permeability,and large-scale exudation occurred.In the 2 mm group,the main pathological changes were decreased cerebral blood flow,brain tissue loss,and cerebral vasospasm occlusion in the injured area.Substantial motor and cognitive impairments were found on day 7 after injury in the 2 mm group;at 30 days after injury,the motor function of the 2 mm group mice recovered significantly while cognitive impairment persisted.Transcriptome sequencing showed that compared with the 1 mm group,the 2 mm group expressed more ferroptosis-related genes.Morphological changes of mitochondria in the two groups on days 7 and 30 using transmission electron microscopy revealed that on day 7,the mitochondria in both groups shrank and the vacuoles became larger;on day 30,the mitochondria in the 1 mm group became larger,and the vacuoles in the 2 mm group remained enlarged.By analyzing the proportion of mitochondrial subgroups in different groups,we found that the model mice had different patterns of mitochondrial composition at different time periods,suggesting that the difference in the degree of damage among traumatic brain injury groups may reflect the mitochondrial changes.Taken together,differences in mitochondrial morphology and function between the 1 and 2 mm groups provide a new direction for the accurate classification of traumatic brain injury.Our results provide reliable data support and evaluation methods for promoting the establishment of standard mouse controlled cortical impingement model guidelines.展开更多
Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop...Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop cultivation. Increases in the frequency of these rare events in a future warmer climate would have significant societal impact. This study uses an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP) models to investigate the projected change in agricultural flash drought during the 21st century. Comparison across geographical regions and climatic zones indicates that individual events are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and precipitation, with long-term trends governed by changes in temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture. As a result of these processes, the frequency of both upperlevel and root-zone flash drought is projected to more than double in the mid-and high latitudes over the 21st century, with hot spots developing in the temperate regions of Europe, and humid regions of South America, Europe, and southern Africa.展开更多
文摘In 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a thermodynamic model based on the Greenhouse Effect, aiming to forecast global temperatures. This study delves into the intricacies of that model. Some interesting observations are revealed. The IPCC model equated average temperatures with average energy fluxes, which can cause significant errors. The model assumed that all energy fluxes remained constant, and the Earth emitted infrared radiation as if it were a blackbody. Neither of those conditions exists. The IPCC’s definition of Climate Change only includes events caused by human actions, excluding most causes. Satellite data aimed at the tops of clouds may have inferred a high Greenhouse Gas absorption flux. The model showed more energy coming from the atmosphere than absorbed from the sun, which may have caused a violation of the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics. There were unexpectedly large gaps in the satellite data that aligned with various absorption bands of Greenhouse Gases, possibly caused by photon scattering associated with re-emissions. Based on science, we developed a cloud-based climate model that complied with the Radiation Laws and the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics. The Cloud Model showed that 81.3% of the outgoing reflected and infrared radiation was applicable to the clouds and water vapor. In comparison, the involvement of CO<sub>2</sub> was only 0.04%, making it too minuscule to measure reliably.
基金Under the auspices of the Yunnan Scientist Workstation on International River Research of Daming He(No.KXJGZS-2019-005)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42201040)+1 种基金National Key Research and Development Project of China(No.2016YFA0601601)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2023M733006)。
文摘Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.
文摘Analysis of catchment Land use/Land cover (LULC) change is a vital tool in ensuring sustainable catchment management. The study analyzed land use/land cover changes in the Rwizi catchment, south western Uganda from 1989-2019 and projected the trend by 2040. Landsat images, field observations, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were used to collect data. Changes in cropland, forestland, built up area, grazing land, wetland and open water bodies were analyzed in ArcGIS version 10.2.2 and ERDAS IMAGINE 14 software and a Markov chain model. All the LULC classes increased in area except grazing land. Forest land and builtup area between 2009-2019 increased by 370.03% and 229.53% respectively. Projections revealed an increase in forest land and builtup area by 2030 and only built up area by 2040. LULCC in the catchment results from population pressure, reduced soil fertility and high value of agricultural products.
基金Project supported by the Guangxi Natural Science Foundation,China(Grant No.2022GXNSFDA035080)the Central Government Guidance Funds for Local Scientific and Technological Development,China(Grant No.Guike ZY22096024)the National Natural Science Foundation,China(Grant No.61963008).
文摘Speed limit measures are ubiquitous due to the complexity of the road environment,which can be supplied with the help of vehicle to everything(V2X)communication technology.Therefore,the influence of speed limit on traffic system will be investigated to construct a two-lane lattice model accounting for the speed limit effect during the lane change process under V2X environment.Accordingly,the stability condition and the mKdV equation are closely associated with the speed limit effect through theory analysis.Moreover,the evolution of density and hysteresis loop is simulated to demonstrate the positive role of the speed limit effect on traffic stability in the cases of strong reaction intensity and high limited speed.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grants No.30960264,31160475 and 42071258)Open Research Fund of TPESER(grant No.TPESER202208)+2 种基金Special Fund for Basic Scientific Research of Central Colleges,Chang’an University,China(grant No.300102353501)Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province,China(grant No.22JR5RA857)Higher Education Novel Foundation of Gansu Province,China(grant No.2021B-130)。
文摘Potential natural vegetation(PNV)is a valuable reference for ecosystem renovation and has garnered increasing attention worldwide.However,there is limited knowledge on the spatio-temporal distributions,transitional processes,and underlying mechanisms of global natural vegetation,particularly in the case of ongoing climate warming.In this study,we visualize the spatio-temporal pattern and inter-transition procedure of global PNV,analyse the shifting distances and directions of global PNV under the influence of climatic disturbance,and explore the mechanisms of global PNV in response to temperature and precipitation fluctuations.To achieve this,we utilize meteorological data,mainly temperature and precipitation,from six phases:the Last Inter-Glacial(LIG),the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM),the Mid Holocene(MH),the Present Day(PD),2030(20212040)and 2090(2081–2100),and employ a widely-accepted comprehensive and sequential classification sy–stem(CSCS)for global PNV classification.We find that the spatial patterns of five PNV groups(forest,shrubland,savanna,grassland and tundra)generally align with their respective ecotopes,although their distributions have shifted due to fluctuating temperature and precipitation.Notably,we observe an unexpected transition between tundra and savanna despite their geographical distance.The shifts in distance and direction of five PNV groups are mainly driven by temperature and precipitation,although there is heterogeneity among these shifts for each group.Indeed,the heterogeneity observed among different global PNV groups suggests that they may possess varying capacities to adjust to and withstand the impacts of changing climate.The spatio-temporal distributions,mutual transitions and shift tendencies of global PNV and its underlying mechanism in face of changing climate,as revealed in this study,can significantly contribute to the development of strategies for mitigating warming and promoting re-vegetation in degraded regions worldwide.
基金supported by the Key Research Project of China Geological Survey(Grant No.DD20230564)the Research Project of Natural Resources Department of Gansu Province(Grant No.202219)。
文摘Three-dimensional geochemical modeling of ore-forming elements is crucial for predicting deep mineralization.This approach provides key information for the quantitative prediction of deep mineral localization,three-dimensional fine interpolation,analysis of spatial distribution patterns,and extraction of quantitative mineral-seeking markers.The Yechangping molybdenum(Mo)deposit is a significant and extensive porphyry-skarn deposit in the East Qinling-Dabie Mo polymetallic metallogenic belt at the southern margin of the North China Block.Abundant borehole data on oreforming elements underpin deep geochemical predictions.The methodology includes the following steps:(1)Threedimensional geological modeling of the deposit was established.(2)Correlation,cluster,and factor analyses post delineation of mineralization stages and determination of mineral generation sequence to identify(Cu,Pb,Zn,Ag)and(Mo,W,mfe)assemblages.(3)A three-dimensional geochemical block model was constructed for Mo,W,mfe,Cu,Zn,Pb,and Ag using the ordinary kriging method,and the variational function was developed.(4)Spatial distribution and enrichment characteristics analysis of ore-forming elements are performed to extract geological information,employing the variogram and w(Cu+Pb+Zn+Ag)/w(Mo+W)as predictive indicators.(5)Identifying the western,northwestern,and southwestern areas of the mine with limited mineralization potential,contrasted by the northeastern and southeastern areas favorable for mineral exploration.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.82260133 and No.82370661the Academic and Technical Leader of major disciplines in Jiangxi Province,No.20225BCJ23021+2 种基金the Jiangxi Medicine Academy of Nutrition and Health Management,No.2022-PYXM-01the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province,No.20224ACB216004the Technological Innovation Team Cultivation Project of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University,No.YFYKCTDPY202202.
文摘BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis(AP)encompasses a spectrum of pancreatic inflammatory conditions,ranging from mild inflammation to severe pancreatic necrosis and multisystem organ failure.Given the challenges associated with obtaining human pancreatic samples,research on AP predominantly relies on animal models.In this study,we aimed to elucidate the fundamental molecular mechanisms underlying AP using various AP models.AIM To investigate the shared molecular changes underlying the development of AP across varying severity levels.METHODS AP was induced in animal models through treatment with caerulein alone or in combination with lipopolysaccharide(LPS).Additionally,using Ptf1αto drive the specific expression of the hM3 promoter in pancreatic acinar cells transgenic C57BL/6J-hM3/Ptf1α(cre)mice were administered Clozapine N-oxide to induce AP.Subsequently,we conducted RNA sequencing of pancreatic tissues and validated the expression of significantly different genes using the Gene Expression Omnibus(GEO)database.RESULTS Caerulein-induced AP showed severe inflammation and edema,which were exacerbated when combined with LPS and accompanied by partial pancreatic tissue necrosis.Compared with the control group,RNA sequencing analysis revealed 880 significantly differentially expressed genes in the caerulein model and 885 in the caerulein combined with the LPS model.Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes enrichment analysis and Gene Set Enrichment Analysis indicated substantial enrichment of the TLR and NOD-like receptor signaling pathway,TLR signaling pathway,and NF-κB signaling pathway,alongside elevated levels of apoptosis-related pathways,such as apoptosis,P53 pathway,and phagosome pathway.The significantly elevated genes in the TLR and NOD-like receptor signaling pathways,as well as in the apoptosis pathway,were validated through quantitative real-time PCR experiments in animal models.Validation from the GEO database revealed that only MYD88 concurred in both mouse pancreatic tissue and human AP peripheral blood,while TLR1,TLR7,RIPK3,and OAS2 genes exhibited marked elevation in human AP.The genes TUBA1A and GADD45A played significant roles in apoptosis within human AP.The transgenic mouse model hM3/Ptf1α(cre)successfully validated significant differential genes in the TLR and NOD-like receptor signaling pathways as well as the apoptosis pathway,indicating that these pathways represent shared pathological processes in AP across different models.CONCLUSION The TLR and NOD receptor signaling pathways play crucial roles in the inflammatory progression of AP,notably the MYD88 gene.Apoptosis holds a central position in the necrotic processes of AP,with TUBA1A and GADD45A genes exhibiting prominence in human AP.
基金supported by the Russian Science Foundation(Grant No.22-11-00273).
文摘The paper presents the results of comprehensive studies of filtration and capacitance properties of highly porous reservoir rocks of the aquifer of an underground gas storage facility.The geomechanical part of the research included studying the dependence of rock permeability on the stress-strain state in the vicinity of the wells,and physical modeling of the implementation of the method of increasing the permeability of the wellbore zone-the method of directional unloading of the reservoir.The digital part of the research included computed tomography(CT)-based computer analysis of the internal structure,pore space characteristics,and filtration properties before and after the tests.According to the results of physical modeling of deformation and filtration processes,it is found that the permeability of rocks before fracture depends on the stress-strain state insignificantly,and this influence is reversible.However,when downhole pressure reaches 7-8 MPa,macrocracks in the rock begin to grow,accompanied by irreversible permeability increase.Porosity,geodesic tortuosity and permeability values were obtained based on digital studies and numerical modeling.A weak degree of transversal anisotropy of the filtration properties of rocks was detected.Based on the analysis of pore size distribution,pressure field and flow velocities,high homogeneity and connectivity of the rock pore space is shown.The absence of pronounced changes in pore space characteristics and pore permeability after non-uniform triaxial loading rocks was shown.On the basis of geometrical analysis of pore space,the reasons for weak permeability anisotropy were identified.The filtration-capacitance properties obtained from the digital analysis showed very good agreement with the results of field and laboratory measurements.The physical modeling has confirmed the efficiency of application of the directional unloading method for the reservoir under study.The necessary parameters of its application were calculated:bottomhole geometry,stage of operation,stresses and pressure drawdown value.
文摘安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。
基金This research was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.U21A2011,41991233 and 41971129)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.SQ2022YFF1300053)the Distinguished Membership Project of the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sci-ences(Grant No.Y201812).
文摘Land use/cover change(LUCC)plays a key role in altering surface hydrology and water balance,finally affect-ing the security and availability of water resources.However,mechanisms underlying LUCC determination of water-balance processes at the basin scale remain unclear.In this study,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model and partial least squares regression were used to detect the effects of LUCC on hydrology and water components in the Zuli River Basin(ZRB),a typical watershed of the Yellow River Basin.In general,three recommended coefficients(R^(2)and E ns greater than 0.5,and P bias less than 20%)indicated that the output results of the SWAT model were reliable and that the model was effective for the ZRB.Then,several key findings were obtained.First,LUCC in the ZRB was characterized by a significant increase in forest(21.61%)and settlement(23.52%)and a slight reduction in cropland(-1.35%),resulting in a 4.93%increase in evapotranspiration and a clear decline in surface runoffand water yield by 15.68%and 2.95%at the whole basin scale,respectively.Second,at the sub-basin scale,surface runoffand water yield increased by 14.26%-36.15%and 5.13%-15.55%,respectively,mainly due to settlement increases.Last,partial least squares regression indicated that urbanization was the most significant contributor to runoffchange,and evapotranspiration change was mainly driven by forest expansion.These conclusions are significant for understanding the relationship between LUCC and water balance,which can provide meaningful information for managing water resources and the long-term sustainability of such watersheds.
基金supported by the Key R&D Project of Shaanxi Province,China(2020ZDLNY07-06)the Science and Technology Program of Shaanxi Academy of Sciences(2022k-11).
文摘In recent years,Meloidogyne enterolobii has emerged as a major parasitic nematode infesting many plants in tropical or subtropical areas.However,the regions of potential distribution and the main contributing environmental variables for this nematode are unclear.Under the current climate scenario,we predicted the potential geographic distributions of M.enterolobii worldwide and in China using a Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model with the occurrence data of this species.Furthermore,the potential distributions of M.enterolobii were projected under three future climate scenarios(BCC-CSM2-MR,CanESM5 and CNRM-CM6-1)for the periods 2050s and 2090s.Changes in the potential distribution were also predicted under different climate conditions.The results showed that highly suitable regions for M.enterolobii were concentrated in Africa,South America,Asia,and North America between latitudes 30°S to 30°N.Bio16(precipitation of the wettest quarter),bio10(mean temperature of the warmest quarter),and bio11(mean temperature of the coldest quarter)were the variables contributing most in predicting potential distributions of M.enterolobii.In addition,the potential suitable areas for M.enterolobii will shift toward higher latitudes under future climate scenarios.This study provides a theoretical basis for controlling and managing this nematode.
基金funded by CEA,EDF and Framatomefinancial and scientific support of CEA Cadarache.
文摘Considering phase changes associated with a high-temperature molten material cooled down from the outside,this work presents an improvement of the modelling and the numerical simulation of such processes for an application pertaining to the safety of light water nuclear reactors.Postulating a core meltdown accident,the behaviour of the core melt(aka corium)into a steel vessel is of tremendous importance when evaluating the vessel integrity.Evaluating correctly the heat fluxes requires the numerical simulation of the interaction between the liquid material and its solid counterpart which forms during the solidification process,but also may melt back.To simulate this configuration,encoun-tered in various industrial applications,one considers a bi-phase model constituted by a liquid phase in contact and interaction with its solid phase.The liquid phase may solidify in presence of low energetic source,while the solid phase may melt due to an intense heat flux from the high-temperature liquid.In the frame of the in-house legacy code,several simplifying assumptions(0D multi-layer discretization,instantaneous heat transfer via a quadratic temperature profile in solids)are made for the modelling of such phase changes.In the present work,these shortcomings are illustrated and further overcome by solving a 2D heat conduction model in the solid by a mixed Raviart-Thomas finite element method coupled to the liquid phase due to heat and mass exchanges through Stefan condition.The liquid phase is modeled with a 0D multi-layer approach.The 0D-liquid and 2D-solid mod-els are coupled by a Stefan like phase change interface model.Several sanity checks are performed to assess the validity of the approach on 1D and 2D academical configurations for which exact or reference solutions are available.Then more advanced situations(genu-ine multi-dimensional phase changes and an"industrial-like scenario")are simulated to verify the appropriate behavior of the obtained coupled simulation scheme.
文摘This paper presents the results of Rainfall-Runoff modeling and simulation of hydrological responses under changing climate using HEC-HMS model. The basin spatial data was processed by HEC-GeoHMS and imported to HEC-HMS. The calibration and validation of the HEC-HMS model was done using the observed hydrometeorological data (1989-2018) and HEC-GeoHMS output data. The goodness-of-fit of the model was measured using three performance indices: Nash and Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) = 0.8, Coefficient of Determination (R<sup>2</sup>) = 0.8, and Percent Difference (D) = 0.03, with values showing very good performance of the model. Finally, the optimized HEC-HMS model has been applied to simulate the hydrological responses of Upper Baro Basin to the projected climate change for mid-term (2040s) and long-term (2090s) A1B emission scenarios. The simulation results have shown a mean annual percent decrease of 3.6 and an increase of 8.1 for Baro River flow in the 2040s and 2090s scenarios, respectively, compared to the baseline period (2000s). A pronounced flow variation is rather observed on a seasonal basis, reaching a reduction of 50% in spring and an increase of 50% in autumn for both mid-term and long-term scenarios with respect to the base period. Generally, the rainfall-runoff model is developed to solve, in a complementary way, the two main problems in water resources management: the lack of gauged sites and future hydrological response to climate change data of the basin and the region in general. The study results imply that seasonal and time variation in the hydrologic cycle would most likely cause hydrologic extremes. And hence, the developed model and output data are of paramount importance for adaptive strategies and sustainable water resources development in the basin.
文摘[Objectives]To explore the characteristics of land use change and its main influencing factors in Mojiang County from 2000 to 2020,and try to provide a scientific reference for alleviating the contradiction between man and land in Mojiang County and realizing the sustainable development of regional land resources.[Methods]Based on the land cover data and socio-economic data of Mojiang County from 2000 to 2020,the dynamic degree of land use,land use transfer matrix and center-of-gravity transfer model were calculated,and the temporal and spatial change characteristics and driving factors of various types of land use were calculated by PLUS model.[Results]From 2000 to 2020,the area and proportion of grassland,waters and construction land in Mojiang County showed an upward trend,while the area and proportion of cultivated land and forest land showed a downward trend.Among them,cultivated land was mainly converted into forest land and grassland,and some were converted into waters and construction land;forest land was mainly converted into cultivated land and grassland,and part of it was converted into waters and construction land.From 2000 to 2020,the center-of-gravity of cultivated land,forest land and construction land in Mojiang County moved to the southeast of the county,and the moving rates were 0.66,1.97 and 10.58 km/yr,respectively;the center-of-gravity of grassland and waters moved to the southwest of the county,and the moving rates were 1.30 and 20.20 km/yr,respectively.Distance from road,distance from government and distance from waters are the main driving forces affecting land use change in Mojiang County;the forecast shows that in 2040,the area of grassland and forest land in Mojiang County will continue to decrease,the area of cultivated land will turn to rise,and the area of waters and construction land will continue to rise.[Conclusions]Reasonable planning and optimizing the allocation of cultivated land and forest land structure and strict control of the expansion scale of construction land are necessary measures to ensure the coordinated development of regional land rational use and economic construction.
基金supported by grants from the National Science and Technology Innovation 2030 Grant of China,No.2021ZD0201005(to SXW)Natural Science Foundation of China,Nos.81900489(to YZ),82101294(to GHC),81730035(to SXW)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province,No.2022JM-456(to YZ)Shaanxi Provincial Key Research and Development Program,Nos.2022SF-011(to GHC),2022ZDLSF01-02(to YZW)。
文摘Controlled cortical impingement is a widely accepted method to induce traumatic brain injury to establish a traumatic brain injury animal model.A strike depth of 1 mm at a certain speed is recommended for a moderate brain injury and a depth of>2 mm is used to induce severe brain injury.However,the different effects and underlying mechanisms of these two model types have not been proven.This study investigated the changes in cerebral blood flow,differences in the degree of cortical damage,and differences in motor function under different injury parameters of 1 and 2 mm at injury speeds of 3,4,and 5 m/s.We also explored the functional changes and mitochondrial damage between the 1 and 2 mm groups in the acute(7 days)and chronic phases(30 days).The results showed that the cerebral blood flow in the injured area of the 1 mm group was significantly increased,and swelling and bulging of brain tissue,increased vascular permeability,and large-scale exudation occurred.In the 2 mm group,the main pathological changes were decreased cerebral blood flow,brain tissue loss,and cerebral vasospasm occlusion in the injured area.Substantial motor and cognitive impairments were found on day 7 after injury in the 2 mm group;at 30 days after injury,the motor function of the 2 mm group mice recovered significantly while cognitive impairment persisted.Transcriptome sequencing showed that compared with the 1 mm group,the 2 mm group expressed more ferroptosis-related genes.Morphological changes of mitochondria in the two groups on days 7 and 30 using transmission electron microscopy revealed that on day 7,the mitochondria in both groups shrank and the vacuoles became larger;on day 30,the mitochondria in the 1 mm group became larger,and the vacuoles in the 2 mm group remained enlarged.By analyzing the proportion of mitochondrial subgroups in different groups,we found that the model mice had different patterns of mitochondrial composition at different time periods,suggesting that the difference in the degree of damage among traumatic brain injury groups may reflect the mitochondrial changes.Taken together,differences in mitochondrial morphology and function between the 1 and 2 mm groups provide a new direction for the accurate classification of traumatic brain injury.Our results provide reliable data support and evaluation methods for promoting the establishment of standard mouse controlled cortical impingement model guidelines.
基金supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science through the NERC National Capability International Programmes Award (NE/ X006263/1)the Global Challenges Research Fund, via Atmospheric hazard in developing Countries: Risk assessment and Early Warning (ACREW) (NE/R000034/1)the Natural Environmental Research Council and the Department for Foreign International Development through the Sat WIN-ALERT project (NE/ R014116/1)。
文摘Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop cultivation. Increases in the frequency of these rare events in a future warmer climate would have significant societal impact. This study uses an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP) models to investigate the projected change in agricultural flash drought during the 21st century. Comparison across geographical regions and climatic zones indicates that individual events are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and precipitation, with long-term trends governed by changes in temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture. As a result of these processes, the frequency of both upperlevel and root-zone flash drought is projected to more than double in the mid-and high latitudes over the 21st century, with hot spots developing in the temperate regions of Europe, and humid regions of South America, Europe, and southern Africa.