Urban Agglomerations in China: Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Population Agglomeration

Urban agglomeration(UA)is an advanced spatial economic form formed and developed in the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization,and an important carrier of urbanization and economic development.The economy has developed rapidly in the recent decades of China,and the UAs have also developed rapidly.However,as a large population country,the population distribution and changes of UAs in China has unique characteristics.Using the fifth,sixth and seventh population census data,spatial auto-correlation and spatial econometric models,we analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of population agglomeration in China’s UAs.Results revealed that:1)from 2000 to 2020,the population gradually converged into UAs,and the characteristics of population agglomeration in different development degree of UAs differ.The higher the development degree of UA,the higher the population agglomeration degree.Besides,UAs are the main area with the most significant population agglomeration degree,and the spatial autocorrelation show that the cities with similar degree tend to be concentrated in space.The urban population gathering in UAs has a certain positive spillover effect on population size of neighboring cities.2)Economic development and social conditions factors are important factors affecting population agglomeration degree in UAs.The main factors of population gather into UAs are similar with the outside UAs,but the positive promotion of urbanization rate and proportion of tertiary industry in GDP on population agglomeration of UAs in China are enhancing from 2000 to 2020.Meanwhile,the other factors,such as high-quality public services,good urban living environment conditions,high-quality medical and educational resources,are also important factors to promote urban population gather into UAs.This study provides a basis for formulating the development planning of UAs in China,and enriches the relevant theoretical research of population evolution and influencing factors of UAs.

Surface Regional Heat(Cool) Island Effect and Its Diurnal Differences in Arid and Semiarid Resource-based Urban Agglomerations

With the rapid development of urban agglomerations in northwest arid and semiarid regions of China, the scope of the urban heat island(UHI) effect has gradually expanded and gradually connected, and has formed a regional heat island(RHI) with a larger range of impact to the regional environment. However, there are few studies on the heat island effect of urban agglomerations in arid and semiarid regions, so this paper selects the urban agglomeration of Hohhot, Baotou and Ordos(HBO) of Inner Mongolia, China as the study area. Based on the 8-day composite Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) surface temperature data(156scenes in all) and land use maps for 2005, 2010, and 2015, we analyze the spatiotemporal distributions of regional heat(cool) islands(RH(C)I) and the responses of surface temperatures to land-use changes in the diurnal and interannual surface cities. The results showed that: 1) from 2005 to 2015, urban areas showed the cold island effect during the day, with the area of the cold island showing a shrinking feature;at night, they showed the heat island effect, with the area of the heat island showing a first decrease and then an increase.2) From 2005 to 2015, the land development(unutilized land to building land) brings the greatest temperature increase(ΔT = 1.36°C)during the day, while the greatest temperature change at night corresponds to the conversion of cultivated land to building land(ΔT =0.78°C) exhibited the largest changes at night. From 2010 to 2015, the land development(grassland to building land) bring the greatest temperature increase(ΔT = 0.85°C) during the day, while the great temperature change at night corresponds to the conversion of water areas to building land(ΔT = 1.38°C) exhibited the largest changes at night. Exploring the spatial and temporal evolution of surface urban heat(cool) islands in urban agglomerations in arid and semiarid regions will help to understand the urbanization characteristics of urban agglomerations and provide a reference for the formulation of policies for the coordinated and healthy development of the region and co-governance of regional environmental problems.

Spatial Distribution and Influencing Factors of Urban Shrinkage from the Perspective of Factor Flow - A Case Study of National Urban Agglomerations

This paper examines national urban agglomerations by taking factor flows as the focal point as the research subject.By dividing the stages of urban agglomeration development,a comprehensive framework of urban shrinkage is constructed,encompassing economic,population,and social shrinkage.The study explores the spatial distribution characteristics of urban shrinkage during different stages of urban agglomeration and investigates the influencing factors using a geographic detector model.The findings reveal that urban shrinkage within urban agglomerations is widely spread,predominantly in peripheral areas.During the diffusion stage,urban shrinkage is scattered,with population shrinkage concentrated in peripheral regions,economic shrinkage concentrated on old industrial cities,and social shrinkage concentrated on the northeast.The outcomes of the geographic detector model indicate that traffic flow,capital flow,information flow,node importance,network connectivity,government investment,openness,and environmental regulations all play significant roles in shaping the spatial distribution of urban shrinkage.

Multi-scenario Simulation for 2060 and Driving Factors of the Eco-spatial Carbon Sink in the Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration, China

Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. This study applied the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS) model to predict the land use pattern of the ecological space of the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, in 2060 under ecological priority, agricultural priority and urbanized priority scenarios. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(In VEST) model was employed to analyse the spatial changes in ecological space carbon storage in each scenario from 2020 to 2060. Then, this study used a Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model to determine the main driving factors that influence the changes in land carbon sinking capacity. The results of the study can be summarised as follows: firstly, the agricultural and ecological priority scenarios will achieve balanced urban expansion and environmental protection of resources in an ecological space. The urbanized priority scenario will reduce the carbon sinking capacity. Among the simulation scenarios for 2060, carbon storage in the urbanized priority scenario will decrease by 112.26 × 10^(6) t compared with that for 2020 and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.96 kg/m^(2) compared with that for 2020. Carbon storage in the agricultural priority scenario will increase by 84.11 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.72 kg/m^(2). Carbon storage in the ecological priority scenario will increase by 3.03 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will increase by 0.03 kg/m^(2). Under the premise that the population of the town will increases continuously, the ecological priority development approach may be a wise choice.Secondly, slope, distance to river and elevation are the most important factors that influence the carbon sink pattern of the ecological space in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, followed by GDP, population density, slope direction and distance to traffic infrastructure.At the same time, urban space expansion is the main cause of the changes of this natural factors. Thirdly, the decreasing trend of ecological space is difficult to reverse, so reasonable land use policy to curb the spatial expansion of cities need to be made.

Spatially Heterogeneous Response of Carbon Storage to Land Use Changes in Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration, China

Carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems plays a vital role in advancing carbon neutrality. Better understanding of how land use changes affect carbon storage in urban agglomeration will provide valuable guidance for policymakers in developing effective regional conservation policies. Taking the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration(PRDUA) in China as an example, we examined the heterogeneous response of carbon storage to land use changes in 1990–2018 from a combined view of administrative units and physical entities. The results indicate that the primary change in land use was due to the expansion of construction land(5897.16 km2). The carbon storage in PRDUA decreased from 767.34 Tg C in 1990 to 725.42 Tg C in 2018 with a spatial pattern of high wings and the low middle. The carbon storage loss was largely attributed to construction land expansion(55.74%), followed by forest degradation(54.81%). Changes in carbon storage showed significant divergences in different sized cities and hierarchical boundaries. The coefficients of geographically weighted regression(GWR) reveal that the alteration in carbon storage in Guangzhou City was more responsive to changes in construction land(-0.11) compared to other cities, while that in Shenzhen was mainly affected by the dynamics of forest land(8.32). The change in carbon storage was primarily influenced by the conversion of farmland within urban extent(5.05) and the degradation of forest land in rural areas(5.82). Carbon storage changes were less sensitive to the expansion of construction land in the urban center, urban built-up area, and ex-urban built-up area, with the corresponding GWR coefficients of 0.19, 0.04, and 0.02. This study necessitates the differentiated protection strategies of carbon storage in urban agglomerations.

Spatiotemporal Variations and Regional Transport of Air Pollutants in Two Urban Agglomerations in Northeast China Plain

Characteristics of air pollution in Northeast China(NEC) received less research attention in the past comparing to other heavily polluted regions in China.Spatiotemporal variations of six criteria air pollutants(PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) in Central Liaoning Urban Agglomeration(CLUA) and Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration(HCUA) in NEC Plain were analyzed in this study based on three-year hourly observations of air pollutants and meteorological variables from 2015 to 2017.The results indicated that the annual mean concentrations of air pollutants are generally higher in the middle and southern regions in NEC Plain and lower in the northern region.Megacities such as Shenyang, Harbin and Changchun experience severe air pollution, with a three-year averaged air quality index(AQI) larger than 80, far exceeding the daily AQI standard at the first-level of 50 in China.The annual mean PM and SO2 concentrations decrease most significantly in NEC urban agglomerations from 2015 to 2017, followed by CO and NO2, while O3 shows a slight increasing trend.All the six pollutants exhibit obvious seasonal and diurnal variations, and these variations are dictated by local emission and meteorological conditions.PM2.5 and O3 concentrations in NEC urban agglomerations strongly depend on wind conditions.High O3 concentrations at different cities usually occur in presence of strong winds but are independent on wind direction(WD), while high PM2.5 is usually accompanied by weak winds and poor dispersion condition, and sometimes also occur when the northerly or southerly winds are strong.Regional transport of air pollutants between NEC urban agglomerations is common.A severe haze event on November 1–4, 2017 is examined to demonstrate the role of regional transport on pollution.

Impact of Anthropogenic Heat Release on Regional Climate in Three Vast Urban Agglomerations in China

We simulated the impact of anthropogenic heat release （AHR） on the regional climate in three vast city agglomerations in China using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with nested high-resolution modeling.Based on energy consumption and high-quality land use data,we designed two scenarios to represent no-AHR and current-AHR conditions.By comparing the results of the two numerical experiments,changes of surface air temperature and precipitation due to AHR were quantified and analyzed.We concluded that AHR increases the temperature in these urbanized areas by about 0.5℃-1℃,and this increase is more pronounced in winter than in other seasons.The inclusion of AHR enhances the convergence of water vapor over urbanized areas.Together with the warming of the lower troposphere and the enhancement of ascending motions caused by AHR,the average convective available potential energy in urbanized areas is increased.Rainfall amounts in summer over urbanized areas are likely to increase and regional precipitation patterns to be altered to some extent.

Reductions of PM_(2.5) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomerations during the 2008 Olympic Games

The Atmospheric Environmental Monitoring Network successfully undertook the task of monitoring the atmospheric quality of Beijing and its surrounding area during the 2008 Olympics. The results of this monitoring show that high concentrations of PM2.5 pollution exhibited a regional pattern during the monitoring period （1 June-30 October 2008）. The PM2.5 mass concentrations were 53 μg m-3, 66 p.g m-3, and 82 μg m-3 at the background site, in Beijing, and in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations, respectively. The PM2.5 levels were lowest during the 2008 Olympic Games （8-24 August）： 35μg m-3 at the background site, 42 μg m-3 in Beijing and 57 μg m-3 in the region. These levels represent decreases of 49%, 48% and 56%, respectively, compared to the prophase mean concentration before the Olympic Games. Emission control measures contributed 62% 82% of the declines observed in Beijing, and meteorological conditions represented 18%-38%. The concentration of fine particles met the goals set for a ＂Green Olympics.＂

Evaluation of coordinated development of regional resources and economy around Shandong Peninsula urban agglomerations

Promoting coordinated development of resources and environment is an important aspect of building a harmonious society and ecologically sustainable civilization. Here we provide scientific basis to promote the development of ecologically sensitive civilization, via a mathematical statistics method that calculates the degree of coordinated development. This model is of great practical and social significance, providing strength to research around coordinated development of resources and economy. Based on evaluation of characteristics of the present resource environment and economic development of Shandong Peninsula city group, a coordinated measure of resource environment and economic development was calculated. Overall, the highest coordination measurement was found for Weihai, followed by Yantai, Qingdao, Ji'nan, Weifang, Rizhao, Zibo and Dongying. According to evaluation results of coordination measures for each city, we put forward suggestions for sustainable development of Shandong Peninsula region.

The Effect of Urban Agglomeration Expansion on PM_(2.5) Concentrations: Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment

This study constructs a quasi-natural experiment based on the expansion of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration(YRDUA) of China in 2010 to investigate the impact and inner mechanism of urban agglomeration expansion on fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5)) concentrations through propensity scores in difference-in-differences models(PSM-DID) using panel data from 286 prefecturelevel cities in China from 2003 to 2016. The results show that 1) urban agglomeration expansion contributes to an overall decrease in PM_(2.5)concentration, which is mainly achieved from the original cities. For the new cities, on the other hand, the expansion significantly increases the local PM_(2.5)concentration. 2) In the long term, the significant influence of urban agglomeration expansion on PM_(2.5)concentration lasts for three years and gradually decreases. A series of robustness tests confirm the applicability of the PSM-DID model.3) Cities with weaker government regulation, a better educated population and higher per capita income present stronger PM_(2.5)reduction effects. 4) Urban agglomeration expansion affects the PM_(2.5)concentration mainly through industrial transfer and population migration, which cause a decrease in the PM_(2.5)concentration in the original cities and an increase in the PM_(2.5)concentration in the new cities.Corresponding policy suggestions are proposed based on the conclusions.

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Urban Expansion Based on a Novel Adjusted Index and GEE: A Case Study of Central Plains Urban Agglomeration, China

It is crucial to investigate the urban agglomerations spatio-temporal evolution patterns and driving factors for analyzing the urban spatial structure-functional division and promoting the coordinated development of urban agglomerations.In this study,a novel vegetation-building-nighttime light-adjusted index(VBNAI)was established for rapid and effective mapping of urban construction land(UCL)in Central Plains Urban Agglomeration(CPUA),China during 2000–2020 based on Google Earth Engine(GEE)platform.Compared with traditional indices,VBNAI can significantly decrease the blooming effect,Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)saturation,and soil background of nighttime light data.In addition,the urban expansion indices and standard deviation ellipse model were synthetically adopted to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution pattern of urban expansion.The gravity model and the geographically weighted regression model were employed to determine the spatial interaction forces and drivers of urban expansion,respectively.The results showed that the VBNAI index has obvious advantages in efficiency and accuracy to extract UCL with the overall accuracy of more than 91%.The UCL of CPUA had increased by 4489.84 km2 during 2000–2020 with the gravity center moving towards southeast continuously.From 2000 to 2010,the urban expansion was in a‘center-hinterland’pattern which had benefit from the favorable effect of the traffic shaft belt.During 2010–2020,the urban network structure had basically established.Urban expansion had been influenced by a variety of socio-economic and demographic factors,and the impact degree varied from region to region.This study could provide scientific references for facilitating the intensive utilization of urban resources and optimizing the spatial development pattern of urban agglomeration.

Spatial pattern and drivers of urbanization in China's mid-level developing urban agglomeration:A case study of Chang-Zhu-Tan

Urban agglomeration has become the main form of regional spatial organization in China.While most of the existing studies of urban agglomeration in China have focused on the eastern coastal areas,urban agglomeration with mid-level development in the rest of the country has been overlooke1.To better understand the urbanization process of the mid-level developing urban agglomeration,this study investigated the clustering pattern and the drivers of both urban population and firm dynamics during 2005-2015 in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan(Chang-Zhu-Tan)urban agglomeration of China using the methods ofkernel density estimation and geographic detection.Our results show that centralization was obvious,although decentralization also occurred in Chang-Zhu-Tan,and that the spatial agglomeration was promoted by several factors,such as administrative resources,location advantage,labor cost,and consumption capacity.Some problems hindering the development of this region were also discovered:administrative resources played a critical role in urbanization because small towns and villages did not receive enough attention,and the effect of local policy was not as beneficial as expected.These findings partly explain the relatively slow development of mid-level developing urban agglomerations and have important implications for promoting healthier urbanization.

NDVI characteristics and precipitation sensitivity of urban agglomeration in Central Shanxi Basin

The overall NDVI characteristics and precipitation sensitivity in the study area from 2000 to 2018 were investigated using NDVI images of urban agglomeration in central Shanxi basin in 2000,2005,2010,and 2018 as well as the climate data of China’s surface cumulative annual value data set(1981-2010)in accordance with the method such as the geographically weighted regression model.As can be seen from the results,first,the overall NDVI pattern of urban agglomeration in central Shanxi basin,China has been changed and distributed along the topography in the shape of strip.Second,the spatial evolution of NDVI in the study area is varied significantly with the trend of expansion as a whole and a shrinking trend in some areas.Third,the overall precipitation in the study area presents a declining trend from the west to the east,while the NDVI precipitation sensitivity shows a decreasing trend from west to east.To be specific,the west and the east have a positive value of 1.3129 with strong sensitivity and a negative value of-1.0908 with weak sensitivity,respectively.The study results are expected to provide a scientific basis for restoring vegetation and formulating disaster prevention policies for urban agglomeration in Central Shanxi Basin.

Cooperative Game Among Cities in Urban Agglomerations and Economical Sustainable Development

This paper analyses redounded profits of cooperation and non-cooperation among cities in urban agglomerations based on game theory. It discusses the problems of economical development among cities with feeble cooperation, and deduces the conclusion that only cooperation of cities produces the maximum profits and realizes Pareto efficiency for cities and urban agglomerations. The paper states that cooperation is the cornerstone of economic sustainable development in urban agglomerations in profits produced by cooperation among cities. Some suggestions to accelerate cooperation among cities are proposed.

Size structure of urban agglomerations in China:rationality evaluation,patterns, and implications

This paper establishes a diagnostic model for assessing the rationality of size structure of urban agglomerations(UAs) in China. The model is designed to determine from a three-dimensional index including size distribution index(SDI), size compactness index(SCI), and size efficiency index(SEI). The spatio-temporal pattern of size structure involving the studied 19 UAs and its implications are explored. The results indicate that size structure of China's UAs advanced from a low rationality development stage to a moderate rationality development stage in 1995-2015.Among them, the SDI and SEI were reasonably high, and the SCI was relatively low. Spatially, the high rationality UAs were distributed across eastern China, while the low rationality UAs were located in western China. UAs with positive size structure possessed typically a dual-or multicenter urban structure, while UAs with negative size structure usually presented as a single-center structure. The evolutionary trajectories of rationality of size structure of UAs can be summarized as four different stages. Our findings suggest that, in addition to consolidating the status of national-level UAs, the development of regional-level UAs should be promoted. Also, the fostering focus and direction should be oriented toward an UA with dual-or multicenter spatial structure.

Polarization or Diffusion?Spatio-temporal Evolution of Urban Technological Innovation Capacity in China's Five Urban Agglomerations

Under the background of collaborative innovation,innovation spillovers at urban agglomeration(UA)level is an important issue but rarely discussed.Using balanced panel data of innovation activities in China’s five UAs from 2003 to 2016,this paper shows spatio-temporal evolution process of their technological innovation capacity with discussing polarization-diffusion patterns,and simultaneously examines driving factors of that evolution processes.We report three main findings:1)there is a high degree of concentration in technological innovation capacity distribution within all China’s five UAs,linked by economic and innovation collaboration.2)Innovation capacity increase of China’s five UAs is driven by government’s investment in science and technology(S&T)to a large extent,followed by influences of infrastructure facilities construction,human capital for S&T,as well as transformation of industrial structure,with great disparities emerged between UAs in our sample period.3)While the intra-region innovation gaps are reducing in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration(YRD)with obvious innovation diffusion,urban agglomeration in middle reaches of the Yangtze River(MYR)is still dominated by innovation polarized growth.Differences in polarization-diffusion patterns between these two UAs may be explained by opposite returns of industrial structure and internet infrastructure.Our findings contribute to more effective policy making in promoting innovation development when reducing regional inequality through innovation diffusion.

Review of Domestic Studies of Urban Agglomerations

Urban agglomeration is the mainstream and trend of global urban development,and it is also the ' major form' of China’s new urbanization. Based on the evolution of the concept of urban agglomeration,this paper focuses on the identification of urban agglomeration,benefit assessment,developmental rules and future trends. This paper sorted out the research process of domestic scholars on urban agglomerations,and summarized the problems in the existing research status of urban agglomerations in China. Finally,it came up with recommendations that the urban agglomeration life development theory system should be established with the cultivation base,network flow,quality core,and energy radiation circle as evaluation criteria,to study the three representative urban agglomerations in China from the perspective of regional function evaluation.

Assessing economic performance of the three major urban agglomerations in China by using Malmquist productivity index

Forty years of reform and opening up,China has become to the world’s second-largest economy with great success.However,it is an undoubted actuality that the economic mode of Chinese development is still at the extensive stage.China’s economy has shifted from a high-speed growth phase to a high-quality development phase.In this study,we analyzed three major urban agglomerations’total factor productivity index dynamically by means of Malmquist productivity i?ndex method.The results showed that MPI of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration was the highest,as the reasons of the effectiveness of dual-wheel driving both the technology progress and the cluster scale.The mean of MPI of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was fallen into decline by an average of 1.3%annually due to the rate of increase of the size of the cluster towards to optimal frontier was inferior to the relative risk reduction of technology progress.Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration MPI declined by an average of 2.2%annually as a result of the contribution of technology progress reducing.The study of the economic performance of three major urban agglomerations provides a theoretical basis and important practical value for urban development of high quality optimization.

Measurement of Urban Economic Gravity of China’s Three Major Agglomerations and Its Implications for the Coordinated Development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

This paper adopts the perspective of urban economic linkage and the modified urban economic gravity model to conduct a comparative analysis of the economic gravity among cities in China’s three major urban agglomerations,including the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the Yangtze River Delta,and the Pearl River Delta.The results show that,despite the ever-tightening economic linkages among cities in the urban agglomerations,the development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region falls behind that of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta in terms of coordination,closeness,and balance.The economic linkages among cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are not as cohesive as they could be and display a significant“siphon effect”through Beijing and Tianjin as well as a prominently unidirectional economic flow.This study suggests that efforts should be put into directing the orderly flow of resources from Beijing and Tianjin to cities in Hebei and promoting a balanced economic flow among cities,thus facilitating the coordination of regional development.

Input and output efficiency of urban agglomerations in China using DEA multi-stage model

In this study, we apply the data envelopment analysis(DEA) model to quantitatively measure the input and output efficiency of 19 urban agglomerations in China from 2011 to 2016. The results show that the input and output efficiency of urban agglomerations is relatively not high, only a small number of that reach the optimal DEA efficiency. It is clearly revealed that there are the regions from the east that presents the better performance, followed by regions from the central and the west. The peer counts show that Zhusanjiao is taken into account 12 times which shows the importance here of the Zhusanjiao model.Considering the values for radial movements and the slack movements, respective urban agglomeration has their improving orientation towards the capital slack, the labor slack or the land slack. It offers a scientific decision-making of for healthy urbanization and high quality development.