Automatic Approach to Ontology Evolution Based on Change Impact Comparisons

Ontology evolution is the timely adaptation of ontologies to changing requirements, which is becoming more and more important as ontologies become widely used in different fields. This paper shows how to address the problem of evolving ontologies with less manual case-based reasoning using an automatic selection mechanism. An automatic ontology evolution strategy selection framework is presented that automates the evolution. A minimal change impact algorithm is also developed for the framework. The method is shown to be effective in a case study.

The Impacts of Climate Change on the Availability of Surface Water Resources in Jordan

Climate change in the Middle East area including Jordan has started to be reflected in decreasing precipitation and increasing temperatures with their impacts on the availability of surface and groundwater. This article aims to evaluate the impacts of decreasing or increasing precipitation by 10% and 20% on the quantities of flood runoff based on recorded precipitation and runoffs of catchments during the past 60 to 70 years of observation, during which the precipitation in individual or a few years increased or decreased by tens of percentages relative to the long-term average precipitation. The results of quantification show that in Jordan as a whole, decreasing precipitation by 10% and 20% has historically (during the recording period) resulted in reductions in flood flows by 26.2% and 52.8% and that increasing precipitation by 10% and 20% has resulted in increases in flood flows by 26.4% and 56.5% respectively. These results look somehow paradox, because the general perception is that flood runoff changes in the same percentage like precipitation although flood flow is not linearly correlated with precipitation but exponentially. Decreasing precipitation in the water-scarce stressed country, Jordan due to climatic changes, will have strong implications on rain-fed and irrigated agriculture and on household water supplies with very severe socio-economic percussions expressed in increasing unemployment and poverty which may lead to social and political unrest. Therefore, proactive measures have to be implemented before disasters hit. Such measures are limited in Jordan to seawater desalination, intensified water harvesting and improved water use efficiency in agriculture.

A Review of the Climate-Change-Impacts’Rates of Change in the Arctic

Climate Change is a global phenomenon that has a global scale impact. The current trend of climate change towards the warming of the globe has resulted in various changes in the geological, climatology, social, economical, and bio-logical processes worldwide. Temperature of the globe has increased due to various factors, but anthropogenic plays a major contribution through the heavy input of Greenhouse gases. One of the world’s most remote regions that have been affected by most of the anthropogenic stresses on environmental services is the Arctic Region. The Arctic Region has shown various drastic changes and has shown to be effected by various anthropogenic activities that take place elsewhere. These changes include the ozone hole (resulting from ozone degrading compound emitted heavily by an-thropogenic demands), the accumulation of various persistent and volatile pollutants (i.e. POPs), and the meltdown of the polar ice (among others). These drastic changes are well perceived and well projected for future preparations. However, the question still remains if these impacts would only accelerate change. This paper aims to discuss if these changes are accelerating or happening at a constant rate. In addition, this paper aims to only focus on changes due to global warming and climate changes

Impact of Climate Change and Grazing on Temperate Steppe

Ecosystem of eastern Eurasian steppe is facing more and more challenges of global issues such as climate change, food and ecological security and human excessive utilization since the 21st century. Facing on the increasingly prominent international issues, it is very essential for relevant countries, international organizations and domestic counterparts to enhance systematic and mutual cooperation and exchanges to carry out scientific research and develop protection practice on the Eurasian steppe.

Systematic Synthesis of Impacts of Climate Change on China's Crop Production System

Global climate change is real and already taking place. The most recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergov- ernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC AR5） stated that global land and ocean surface temperature increased by 0.85℃ over the period of 1880 to 2012 （IPCC Climate Change 2013）. China is among the most affected countries by global climate change.

The Potential Scenarios of the Impacts of Climate Change on Egyptian Resources and Agricultural Plant Production

The emissions of greenhouse gasses in Egypt are about 0.58% of the total emissions of the world in the year 2015, although Egypt is one of the countries most affected by the impacts of climate change. By assessment and analysis of the expected economic impacts of climate change by the year 2030, the Egyptian cultivated area will be reduced to about 0.949 million acres, equal to about 8.22% of the Egyptian cultivated area compared with the case of no sinking part of the Delta land, thus reducing crop area in Egypt to about 1.406 million acres, approximately to about 6.25% of crop area compared with the case of no sinking part of the Delta land, in addition to surplus in the Egyptian balance water to about 2.48 billion m3. In this case value of the Egyptian agriculture production will decrease by about 6.19 billion dollars, equal to about 6.19% compared with presumably no sinking of the Delta land. In the case of sinking 15% of Delta lands, with the change of the productivity and water consumption of most crops, the result will be a reduction in the cultivated area to about 0.94 million acres. In addition to decreasing the Egyptian crop area to about 1.39 million acres, with a deficit in the Egyptian balance water to about 4.74 billion m3 compared to the case of no sinking part of the Delta land, the cultivated area will decrease to about 8.17%, and the crop area will decrease 6.18%. Also, the value of the Egyptian agriculture production will decrease by about 12.51%. While compared to sinking part of the Delta land to about 15% of the total Delta area without the other impacts of climate change, the cultivated area will increase by about 0.06%;the crop area will increase by about 0.08%;also, the value of the Egyptian agriculture production will decrease by about 5.57%.

Impact of the Iron Gates on the Sediments with an Emphasis on the Area of the Future Belene Nuclear Power Plant

The present investigation has been fulfilled with a view to the future nuclear power station constriction near the Belene Island.Sediment loads and sediment transportation are important factors for the technical water supply of the nuclear station Belene.The paper deals with change of suspended sediment load at Bulgarian part of the Danube River downstream of the Iron Gates.Recent data on suspended sediment loads for the hydrometric gauge station at Svishtov have been collected,computed and presented.The results obtained discover the time variability of the sediment loads,climate change and the anthropogenic impact on the suspended sediments.The tendency of alteration and inter-annual variability of the suspended sediments are investigated and characteristics of average annual,monthly and maximal values are shown.In the material archive granulometric data are presented for this part of the Bulgarian stretch before the Iron Gates construction in the conditions of the natural sediment regime.There are statistical parameters of the studied characteristics of the river turbidity and discharge before and after the anthropogenic impact.The increase of the absolute minimal turbidity has been determined after the Iron Gate I as a result of activation of the bed processes and hydro-morphological changes.

The effect of low fluoride concentrations on microdamage accumulation in mouse tibias under impact loading

Microdamage accumulation in bone is one of the mechanisms for energy dissipation during the fracture process. Changes in the ultrastructure and composition of bone constituents due to aging or diseases could affect microdamage accumulation. Low concentration （1 mM） of sodium fluoride （NaF） has been used in this study to investigate the effect of ultrastructural changes on microdamage accumu- lation in mouse tibias following free-fall impact loadings. Twenty-two tibias were divided randomly into control and NaF-treated groups. Free-fall impact loading was conducted twice on each tibia to produce microdamage. The elas- tic modulus of NaF-treated tibias decreased significantly after the impact loadings, while there was no significant difference in the modulus of untreated samples between pre- and post-damage loadings. Microdamage morphology analysis showed that less and shorter microcracks existed in NaF-treated tibias compared with control bones. Meanwhile, more and longer microcracks were observed in tensile regions in untreated samples compared with that in compressive regions, whereas no significant difference was observed between tensile and compressive regions in NaF-treated bones. The results of this study indicate that more energy is required to generate microcracks in NaF-treated bone than in normal bone. A low concentration of fluoride treatment may increase the toughness of bone under impact loading.

Worrying about Climate Change

It is becoming clear that Climate Change is getting severe. It was reported that the improved ocean heat measurements have a rate of warming upwards from 4 to 5 Hiroshima bombs liberated heat per second or 388,800 per day. It was reported also that our climate has accumulated the equivalent of a total of more than 2.8 billion Hiroshima bombs’ worth of heat since 1998. Despite this global concern about the effect of global change on environment, it is believed that the problem is much more severe and with greater impact on all facets of life. The effect of Climate Change, especially with a 1℃increase in global temperature (from 14℃to 15℃) is equivalent to the heat liberated from explosion of about 300 million Hiroshima of atomic bomb. This is why this CoP 26 becomes more serious and had targeted year 2060 as a year of zero CO2 emission. This paper discusses the impact of climate change on ten sectors;water, water desalination, energy, renewable energy supply, health, society, agriculture, economy, industry, and built environment.

Integrated watershed management:evolution,development and emerging trends

Watershed management is an ever-evolving practice involving the management of land, water, biota, and other resources in a defined area for ecological, social, and economic purposes. In this paper, we explore the following questions： How has watershed management evolved？ What new tools are available and how can they be integrated into sustainable watershed management？ To address these questions, we discuss the process of developing integrated watershed management strategies for sustainable manage- ment through the incorporation of adaptive management techniques and traditional ecological knowledge. We address the numerous benefits from integration acrossdisciplines and jurisdictional boundaries, as well as the incorporation of technological advancements, such as remote sensing, GIS, big data, and multi-level social-eco- logical systems analysis, into watershed management strategies. We use three case studies from China, Europe, and Canada to review the success and failure of integrated watershed management in addressing different ecological, social, and economic dilemmas in geographically diverse locations. Although progress has been made in watershed management strategies, there are still numerous issues impeding successful management outcomes; many of which can be remedied through holistic management approaches, incorporation of cutting-edge science and technology, and cross-jurisdictional coordination. We conclude by high- lighting that future watershed management will need to account for climate change impacts by employing techno- logical advancements and holistic, cross-disciplinary approaches to ensure watersheds continue to serve their ecological, social, and economic functions. We present three case studies in this paper as a valuable resource for scientists, resource managers, government agencies, and other stakeholders aiming to improve integrated watershed management strategies and more efficiently and successfully achieve ecological and socio-economic management objectives.

Impacts of Climate Change on Cotton Yield in China from 1961 to2010 Based on Provincial Data

To develop scientific countermeasures, the impacts of climate change on cotton yield during 1961-2010 in three major cotton-producing regions of China were studied by using the available provincial data. The results indicate that （1） a rise in average temperature increased the cotton yield in most provinces of Northwest China and the Yellow River valley; however, the rise in average temperature decreased the cotton yield in the Yangtze River valley. Moreover, cotton production across the entire study region was reduced by approximately 0.1% relative to the average during 1961-2010. （2） A decrease in diurnal temperature range （DTR） reduced cotton yield in some provinces, while a beneficial DTR effect was observed in the other provinces. Changes in DTR resulted in an average decrease in production by approximatly 5.5% across the entire study region. （3） A change in the amount of precipitation increased the cotton yield in some provinces; however, it caused a decrease in other provinces. The decrease in average production due to the change in precipitation was approximately 1.1%. We concluded that the changes in temperature and precipitation decreased cotton yields in China, while beneficial effects of temperature and precipitation existed in the cotton-growing regions of Northwest China during 1961-2010.

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER DEFICIT AND PRODUCTION OF WINTER WHEAT IN NORTH CHINA

The water deficits in different development stages and the whole growing season of winter wheat in North China under climate change scenarios are analyzed based on the meteorological da- ta,crop phenomenon and soil hydrological data of 30 weather stations.The results show that if the temperature rises,the potential evapotranspiration and crop maximum transpiration will in- crease 8%-10%;the actual evapotranspiration in whole growing season will increase about 1%- 2%;and it seems to decrease in spring.Therefore the water deficit status would deteriorate.The amount of water deficit in whole growing season would increase 14%-30%,and the water deficit isolines might shift southward with maximum shift distance being 190 km.As a result the climatic suitability of winter wheat would change,and the variation rate of yield reduction will be 8%- 20% of the present value which results in the declining output values.The irrigation amount would increase 25%-33%,and the agriculture cost might increase owing to additional irrigation.

Seasonal and interannual variations of flow discharge from Pearl River into sea

Flow discharge from the river basin into the sea has severe impacts on the immediate vicinity of river channels, estuaries, and coastal areas. This paper analyzes the features and temporal trends of flow discharge at Pearl River＇s three main gauge stations： the Wuzhou, Shijiao, and Boluo gauge stations on the West River, North River, and East River, respectively. The results show no significant trend in annual mean discharge into the sea at the three gauge stations. Changes of monthly mean discharge at the Boluo Gauge Station are evident, and a majority of monthly discharge in the dry season displays significant increasing trends. Furthermore, changes of the extreme discharge are quite evident, with a significant decreasing trend in the annual maximum discharge and a significant increasing trend in the minimum one. The significantly decreasing ratio of the flood discharge to annual discharge at the Boluo Gauge Station indicates that the flow discharge from the East River has increased in the dry season and decreased in the flood season since the construction of dams and reservoirs. At the other two gauge stations, the Wuzhou and Shijiao gauge stations, the seasonal discharge generally does not change perceptibly. Human impacts, especially those pertaining to reservoir and dam construction, appear to be responsible for the seasonal variation of flow discharge. The results indicate that the construction and operation of dams and reservoirs in the East River have a greater influence on flow discharge, which can well explain why the seasonal variation of flow discharge from the East River is more evident.

Incorporating shape constraints in generalized additive modelling of the height-diameter relationship for Norway spruce

Background： Measurements of tree heights and diameters are essential in forest assessment and modelling. Tree heights are used for estimating timber volume, site index and other important variables related to forest growth and yield, succession and carbon budget models. However, the diameter at breast height （dbh） can be more accurately obtained and at lower cost, than total tree height. Hence, generalized height-diameter （h-d） models that predict tree height from dbh, age and other covariates are needed. For a more flexible but biologically plausible estimation of covariate effects we use shape constrained generalized additive models as an extension of existing h-d model approaches. We use causal site parameters such as index of aridity to enhance the generality and causality of the models and to enable predictions under projected changeable climatic conditions. Methods： We develop unconstrained generalized additive models （GAM） and shape constrained generalized additive models （SCAM） for investigating the possible effects of tree-specific parameters such as tree age, relative diameter at breast height, and site-specific parameters such as index of aridity and sum of daily mean temperature during vegetation period, on the h-d relationship of forests in Lower Saxony, Germany. Results： Some of the derived effects, e.g. effects of age, index of aridity and sum of daily mean temperature have significantly non-linear pattern. The need for using SCAM results from the fact that some of the model effects show partially implausible patterns especially at the boundaries of data ranges. The derived model predicts monotonically increasing levels of tree height with increasing age and temperature sum and decreasing aridity and social rank of a tree within a stand, The definition of constraints leads only to marginal or minor decline in the model statistics like AIC An observed structured spatial trend in tree height is modelled via 2-dimensional surface fitting. Conclusions： We demonstrate that the SCAM approach allows optimal regression modelling flexibility similar to the standard GAM but with the additional possibility of defining specific constraints for the model effects. The longitudinal character of the model allows for tree height imputation for the current status of forests but also for future tree height prediction.

Land use studies in China

This paper describes the current situation of China's land use and land use changes, major driving forces, and their impacts on the environment, through a review on land use studies in the past decades in China.

DeltaFuzz: Historical Version Information Guided Fuzz Testing

With the widespread use of agile software development methods,such as agile and scrum,software is iteratively updated more frequently.To ensure the quality of the software,regression testing is conducted before new versions are released.Moreover,to improve the efficiency of regression testing,testing efforts should be concentrated on the modified and impacted parts of a program.However,the costs of manually constructing new test cases for the modified and impacted parts are relatively expensive.Fuzz testing is an effective method for generating test data automatically,but it is usually devoted to achieving higher code coverage,which makes fuzz testing unsuitable for direct regression testing scenarios.For this reason,we propose a fuzz testing method based on the guidance of historical version information.First,the differences between the program being tested and the last version are analyzed,and the results of the analysis are used to locate change points.Second,change impact analysis is performed to find the corresponding impacted basic blocks.Finally,the fitness values of test cases are calculated according to the execution traces,and new test cases are generated iteratively by the genetic algorithm.Based on the proposed method,we implement a prototype tool DeltaFuzz and conduct experiments on six open-source projects.Compared with the fuzzing tool AFLGo,AFLFast and AFL,DeltaFuzz can reach the target faster,and the time taken by DeltaFuzz was reduced by 20.59%,30.05%and 32.61%,respectively.