Impact of Economic Development Model on the Fitting Effect of the Mathematical Model of Changes in Cultivated Land Resources

The mathematical model is often used for fitting the trend of changes in cultivated land resources in the land use planning,but the fitting effect is different in different study areas. In this paper,we take two geographically adjacent cities with great differences in the economic development model,Xinghua City and Jingjiang City,as the research object. Using logarithmic model( M1),Kuznets model( M2),logistic model( M3) and multivariate linear model( M4),we fit the process of changes in cultivated land resources during the period 1980- 2009,and compare the differences in the fitting effect between different models. In terms of the model fitting effect in Xinghua City,it is in the order of M3 > M4 > M1 > M2,which is related to the fact that the local areas lay great emphasis on agricultural development,and pay close attention to ensuring the cultivated land area; in terms of the model fitting effect in Jingjiang City,it is in the order of M1 > M3 > M4 > M2,and the deep-seated cause is that its development model is dominated by extended trade expansion,and the level of intensive land use is constantly improved. In addition,we discuss the multi-stage characteristics of changes in cultivated land resources,and propose a solution of using the same model to simulate in various phases. The research results in Jingjiang City show that the coefficient of determination in the first phase( R2=0. 958) and the standard error( SE = 0. 261) are both better than those of the original model( R2= 0. 945,SE = 0. 312); the coefficient of determination in the second phase is slightly low( R2= 0. 851),but the standard error is greatly improved( SE = 0. 137). Compared with the research conclusions of other scholars,it can be believed that this method can better solve the problems that the scatter plot of logistic model presents wave-shape and the scatter plot of Kuznets model presents " M"-shape,in order to improve the applicability of mathematical models.

An in-depth view of climate change:addressing climate change while making a transition on the development mode

While fossil fuels greatly contribute to human society,they pose great challenges to natural resources,the environment,and climate change.Developed countries,like the United States,formulated strategic measures to ensure their sustainable development and leading positions in the world.These measures include new green policies,development of shale gas,revitalization of nuclear power,energy independence,reindustrialization,and new low-carbon development based on a combination of Internet technology and renewable energy.Developing countries are also trying to introduce balanced strategies of poverty alleviation and sustainable development.Globally,industrial civilization is being transformed to ecological civilization and green,low-carbon development is a global trend.Addressing climate change provides new strategic factors to further this development.China should take substantial actions to realize sustainable development in a new road:China is in the critical stage of changing its development mode,so it is vital to choose an appropriate development path.This extensive development comes at the high price of consuming too much resources and scarring the environment.Mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing climate change can help the transition of development.Based on the analysis of the development data of developed countries,the author introduces the concept of"two-type developed countries"with an understanding that not all developed countries must take the same development mode.He also holds the view that China should achieve modernization in a more energy-saving and more carbon-efficient manner compared with that of two-type developed countries.An analysis of"two competitions"that China is facing shows that changing the developing mode is urgent and China should grasp this opportunity in the next five to ten years,which is a key period for this transition.This paper discusses the low-carbon development goals and the three-step process.Low-carbon development does not necessarily restrict economic development.It,however,can expedite the transition of the development mode and this is a low-carbon and green development path.Transition of the development mode includes implementation of China's green and low-carbon energy strategies,low-carbon society construction,development of agriculture and forestry,garbage sorting and utilization,innovation of urbanization,etc.Improvement of national infrastructure construction includes water safety,environment and climate monitoring system,intelligent energy web,basic database,etc.Addressing climate change can significantly improve the nation's basic research level.In summary,it mitigates backward production capability,extensive development,and environmental damage while promoting technological advancement,scientific development,and ecological civilization.

The Theoretical Explanation of Non-ecological Economic Qualities of the Development Mode of Industrial Civilization:An Analysis Based on the Critical Perspective

The development mode of industrial civilization has created huge material wealth for human society,but at the same time the severe ecological problems that have arisen from it have made human civilization fall into the dispersion of unsustainable development.The industrialized development mode has obvious non-ecological economic qualities,which are specifically manifested in the destruction of the ecological economy relationship between nature and mankind,the emergence of cracks of metabolism between nature and mankind,the unbalanced development of the social productive forces and the natural productive forces,and the functioning of one-way linear non-circular economy.Under the trend of ecological evolution of human civilization,the industrial civilization will be replaced by the ecological civilization,and then the industrial economic development mode will be transformed into the ecological economic development mode.As a result,the predicament of once unsustainable development has been gradually dispersed and human civilization enters a beautiful new era of coordinated development of economic society and natural ecology.

Analysis on the Development Trend of Contemporary Local Governance Mode from the perspective of Economic Policy and Environmental Capacity Optimization

As the basic level of national governance, local governance is deeply influenced by administrative tradition, political system and economic development level of a country. With more than thirty years of reform and opening up, the pattern of local governance has become diversified. The diversity of governance model cannot be managed in the same way, however, it cannot affect the government’s ability to play the initiative role of governance. We need to innovate and improve the existing local governance models.

Analysis of the Development Mode Evolution of Holiday Resorts in Suburban Areas of Beijing City

To study the investment activities of tourism developers in suburban tourism destinations of metropolis.421 holiday resorts around Beijing City are selected to study the evolution process of their economic types and development modes.The results show that the development mode of holiday resorts in suburban Beijing is guided by state investment,collectively operated by rural residents,and supplemented by private or other investment types.

Scenario-Based Assessment of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Kuwait: Insights for Effective Resource Management

The interdependency among water, food, and energy (WEF) in the GCC countries is strongly and closely interlinked, and is intensifying as demand for resources increases with population growth and changing consumption patterns, and are expected to be further compounded by the impacts of climate change. Therefore, integrated management of the three sectors is crucial to reduce trade-offs and build synergies among them. This paper presents a comprehensive framework to assess the WEF nexus in Kuwait as a representative case for the GCC countries. The framework consists of three main steps: 1) evaluating the influence of socio-economic development and climate change on water, energy, and food resources;2) generating scenario-based projections;and 3) conducting an extensive quantitative nexus analysis. The WEF interlinkages in Kuwait are modelled quantitatively using the Q-Nexus model, and current critical interdependencies are evaluated. Then, various WEF-Nexus scenarios were conducted for the year 2035 to explore the effects of management interventions in one sector on the other two sectors. The main findings are that per capita municipal water consumption is a major influencer on the WEF-nexus due to the heavy reliance on thermal desalination in municipal water supply in Kuwait, which is attributed to its energy intensity, financial cost, GHGs emissions, and environmental impacts on the marine and air environments. To reduce WEF trade-offs, mitigate risks, and build synergies among the three sectors, it is important to shift the current policy focus on supply-side management approach to the demand-side management and efficiency approaches.

Climate change, water resources and sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid lands of Central Asia in the past 30 years

The countries of Central Asia are collectively known as the five "-stans": Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. In recent times, the Central Asian region has been affected by the shrinkage of the Aral Sea, widespread desertification, soil salinization, biodiversity loss, frequent sand storms, and many other ecological disasters. This paper is a review article based upon the collection, identification and collation of previous studies of environmental changes and regional developments in Central Asia in the past 30 years. Most recent studies have reached a consensus that the temperature rise in Central Asia is occurring faster than the global average. This warming trend will not only result in a higher evaporation in the basin oases, but also to a significant retreat of glaciers in the mountainous areas. Water is the key to sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid regions in Central Asia. The uneven distribution, over consumption, and pollution of water resources in Central Asia have caused severe water supply problems, which have been affecting regional harmony and development for the past 30 years. The widespread and significant land use changes in the 1990 s could be used to improve our understanding of natural variability and human interaction in the region. There has been a positive trend of trans-border cooperation among the Central Asian countries in recent years. International attention has grown and research projects have been initiated to provide water and ecosystem protection in Central Asia. However, the agreements that have been reached might not be able to deliver practical action in time to prevent severe ecological disasters. Water management should be based on hydrographic borders and ministries should be able to make timely decisions without political intervention. Fully integrated management of water resources, land use and industrial development is essential in Central Asia. The ecological crisis should provide sufficient motivation to reach a consensus on unified water management throughout the region.

Potential risks and challenges of climate change in the arid region of northwestern China

In the arid region of northwestern China(ARNC),water resources are the most critical factor restricting socioeconomic development and influencing the stability of the area’s ecological systems.The region’s complex water system and unique hydrological cycle show distinctive characteristics.Moreover,the intensified hydrological cycle and extreme climatic and hydrological events resulting from global warming have led to increased uncertainty around water resources as well as heightened conflict between water supply and water demand.All of these factors are exerting growing pressures on the socioeconomic development and vulnerable ecological environment in the region.This research evaluates the impacts of climate change on water resources,hydrological processes,agricultural system,and desert ecosystems in the ARNC,and addresses some associated risks and challenges specific to this area.The temperature is rising at a rate of 0.31
C per decade during 1961–2017 and hydrological processes are being significantly influenced by changes in glaciers,snow cover,and precipitation form,especially in the rivers recharged primarily by melt water.Ecosystems are also largely influenced by climate change,with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)of natural vegetation exhibited an increasing trend prior to 1998,and then reversed in Xinjiang while the Hexi Corridor of Gansu showed the opposite trends.Furthermore,the desert-oasis transition zone showed a reduction in area due to the warming trend and the recent rapid expansion of irrigated area.Both the warming and intensified drought are threatening agriculture security.The present study could shed light on sustainable development in this region under climate change and provides scientific basis to the construction of the“Silk Road Economic Belt”.

Analysis on the Spatio-Temporal Changes of Sustainable Land Use in Tibet

By constructing evaluation indicator system of sustainable land use of Tibet from three aspects of ecological environment, economic development, resources and social advancement, this article studies the following contents respectively in two dimensions of time and space： the changes of sustainable land use of Tibet in recent 20 years and spatial characteristics of sustainable land use of Tibet in 2002. The following conclusions can be drawn from evaluation results .① With regard to com- prehensive evaluation value of sustainable land use, the trend of Tibet sustainable land use evaluation values from 1983 to 2002 are very close to the comprehensive evaluation values of ecological environment, which is up trend; ② sustainable utilization degree of land use in eastern region of Tibet is much higher than that of western region. ③ the sustainable land use evaluation value of Nyingtri County is the highest, and the counties with relatively higher land sustainable use values include Lhasa, Lhoka, Chamdo. While Nakchu, Ngari, Shigatse counties have the relatively lower evaluation values; ④ By analyzing each evaluation indicator＇s weight on sustainable land use, it can be concluded that the key limiting factors of sustainable Tibet land resource utilization are land desertification, grassland degradation and low economic level.

Basic conditions study to accelerate the realization of transformation of Shaanxi＇s economy growth mode

It is an urgent and important economic work in the moment and the next period for China to realize the transformation of economic growth mode. Relatively, there must be certain basic conditions. This article makes elaboration of the basic conditions, which accelerate the change of Shaanxi＇s economic growth mode from government angle, and proposes countermeasures for it, according to Shaanxi＇s situation and the requirement of scientific development concept, in order to provide basis for the government＇s economic growth transformation.

Characteristics of the Heat Island Effect in Shanghai and Its Possible Mechanism

The characteristics of the urban heat island effect and the climate change in Shanghai and its possible mechanism are analyzed based on monthly meteorological data from 1961 to 1997 at 16 stations in Shanghai and its adjacent areas. The results indicate that Shanghai City has the characteristics of a heat island of air temperature and maximum and minimum air temperature, a cold island of surface soil temperature, a weak rainy island of precipitation, and a turbid island of minimum visibility and aerosols, with centers at or near Longhua station (the urban station of Shanghai). Besides theses, the characteristics of a cloudy island and sunshine duration island are also obvious, but their centers are located in the southern part of the urban area and in the southern suburbs. A linear trend analysis suggests that all of the above urban effects intensified from 1961 to 1997. So far as the heat island effect is concerned, the heat island index (difference of annual temperature between Longhua and Songjiang stations) strengthens (weakens) as the economic development increases (decreases). The authors suggest that the heating increase caused by increasing energy consumption due to economic development is a main factor in controlling the climate change of Shanghai besides natural factors. On the other hand, increasing pollution aerosols contribute to the enhancement of the turbid island and cooling. On the whole, the heating effect caused by increasing energy consumption is stronger than the cooling effect caused by the turbid island and pollution aerosols.

Balancing Carbon Emission Reductions and Social Economic Development for Sustainable Development: Experience from 24 Countries

The impact of human carbon emissions on climate has generated widespread global concern. We selected 24 countries as research objects and analysed the changes in carbon emissions in different countries between the establishment of emission reduction actions in 1990 and 2014. Then, we selected 19 factors representing four categories(economy, population, technology and energy) to explore the key factors that led to changes in carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions in different countries. Emission reduction actions since 1990 did not lead to marked improvements, and only five countries(Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and France) achieved reductions in carbon emissions. The factors that influenced CO2 emissions varied among countries. In most developing countries, reductions in CO2 emissions were caused by reductions in poverty and inherent natural conditions. Moreover, the extent of influence of a given factor on CO2 emissions differed among countries. The global economic crisis may cause similar fluctuations in CO2 emissions in many countries. Adjustments to energy and industrial structures are the main reason for the reduction in carbon emissions, whereas economic growth and urbanization are the two major contributors to the growth of carbon emissions. According to historical carbon emissions data, a green energy revolution must be implemented to address global climate change and ensure the sustainable development of human societies.

Current situation and trend of arable land change in China

How to protect arable land in the process of economic development and urbanization is a critical issue in China. In this paper, an attempt is made to analyze the situation of arable land change in China and it's relationship with population growth, economic development and urbanization. In depth analysis is also made in different regions. Forecasting is conducted to show the trend of arable land change in China based on the results of correlation analysis. Some suggestions are put forward for the policy making of reasonable utilization and protection of arable land in the future.

ANALYSIS ON LAND-USE CHANGE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DRIVING FACTORS IN H AINAN ISLAND DURING 50YEARS FROM 1950TO 1999

Land-use change is an important part of global change research(IGBP,1990-1992).But the majority of researches focus on the natural dr iving force of land use change.In thi s paper,the authors studied the rela tionship be-tween socio-economic driving facto rs and land-use change with time series in Hainan Island.Based on the stud y for the evolution of administrative system and policies in Hainan Island and the comprehensive analysis on the socia l economy da-ta and changes of social policies,th e socio-economic policies,human activities and land use of Hainan can be divided into three periods with different ch aracters:period from1950to 1978ch aracterized by the planning economi c system,peri-od from 1978to 1988characterized by the transfer of economic system and a doption of open policy,new stage fro m 1988to 1998with high growing speed.On th e other hand the authors describe the character of the periods and land-use change process affected by socio-economic factors.This paper provides an important method for evaluating the development and changes of Hainan social economy dur ing the 50years from 1950to 1999and f orecasting the development of Hainan so-cial economy in future.

Exploration of the dynamic water resource carrying capacity of the Keriya River Basin on the southern margin of the Taklimakan Desert,China

The water resource carrying capacity(WRCC)in river basin changes dynamically under climate change,economic development,and technological advancement.Climate change affects hydrological processes and spatial/temporal distribution of water resources;while economic develo-ment and technological advancement can also affect the balance of water resources systems.Under climate change,economic development,and technological advancement,itis of great significance to explore the dynamic behavior of WRCC in river basins.This will help to alleviate water resources security issues and build a sustainable water resources system.This study was carried out to evaluate the dynamic WRCC using the"climate,economics,and technology-control objective inversion mode",which used total water consumption,water-use efficiency,and restrained total pollutant control in the water functional area as boundary conditions.This study was conducted on the Keriya River Basin,a sub-catchment located in southem margin of the Taklimakan Desert.The WRCC in the Keriya River Basin in 2015 was calculated,and the trends in the short term(2020),middle tem(2030),and long term(2050)were predicted.The results revealed that climate change factors have a positive effect on WRCC in the Keriya River Basin,which leads to an increase in total water resources.Economic and technological development exhibits an overall positive effect,while increasing in water consumption and sewage discharge exhibit a negative effect.

Climate capacity:the measurement for adaptation to climate change

This article proposed the concept of"climate capacity"as a way of measuring human's adaptiveness to climate change.This article also focused on the related concepts like ecological carrying capacity,water resources carrying capacity,land carrying capacity as well as population carrying capacity.The concept of climate capacity was articulated against a background of global climate and environmental change.Essentially,China's efforts to adapt to climate change was a matter of improving climate capacity,which is the ecosystem as well as the frequency,the intensity and the scale of human's social activities that the climatic resources of a particular geographic area were supposed to support.The climate capacity has two components.One is the natural climate capacity,which includes temperature,sunlight,precipitation,extreme climatic events,etc.The other is the derived climate capacity,which includes water resources,land resources,ecological systems,climatic risks,etc.The climate capacity can be developed or be transferred between regions by taking engineering,technology or regime-based adaptive measures.However,these adaptive measures must be implemented under the principle of economic rationalism,ecological integrity,climate protection,and social justice.It is expected that by combining the climate capacity and its threshold value with the assessment of climate change risks,we are able to predict the optimal population carrying capacity and the scale of socioeconomic development,and furthermore,provide policy support for the socioeconomic development strategy and adaptive planning.In the regions with high climate capacity,there is a symbiotic relationship between adaptation and socioeconomic development.But,in the regions with limited climate capacity,irrational development may further damage the environment.Taking the Yangtze River delta,a region with high climate capacity,and a region of Ningxia,a region with limited climate capacity,as illustrative examples,the authors of this article analyzed the policy implications of climate capacity and further made suggestions on the problems of capacitylimited adaptation and development-driven adaptation.This article argued that the concept of climate capacity can not only be used as an analytical instrument of climate change economics,but also it can provide research support for planning regional adaptation and development with climate change impact and risk assessments.

Exploring the nexus between Indian forestry and the Sustainable Development Goals

Forests are considered as a sacred asset in India and have guided the way of living throughout its history.Indian forests not only accommodate the myriad species but also act as a survival support system to the communities that depended on them.The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development proposed by the United Nations(UN)has gained momentum and becomes an integral part of the recent efforts of Indian governance.In this investigation,we examined the potential nexus between Indian forestry system(biodiversity-enriched assets,ecosystem services,constitutional mechanisms,and governances)and Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)through theoretical underpinnings from literature that selected from database like Google Scholar,Indian forest survey reports,and information retrieved from Indian government websites.The significance of this review is that it presents comprehensive information about Indian forestry,biodiversity-rich assets,and sustainable forest management practices.The results show that Indian forestry as a whole is an integral part of the food-energy-water cycle and contributes to all dimensions of sustainable development,i.e.,economic sustainability,social sustainability,and environmental sustainability.The investigation confirms that besides partly contributing to the economy and life support systems to many dependent species,forests also act as boosters in the areas of food security and health.Targets related to the climate action,peace,and partnership goals are well in place through various forestry interventions and environmental commitments by the Government of India.

An Analysis of China's Overall Price Trend During the 12th Five-year Plan Period and Suggestions

In this paper,the author first summarizes China’s price operation situation and characteristics since the 1990s,and thenanalyzes inflation shaping factors and types.Based on that,the author raises six inflation early-warning indexes andfully dissects influencing factors of the overall price trend and inflation risks during the 12th Five-year Plan period.Afterthat,the author explains some aspects of price fluctuation that warrants attention during the 12th Five-year Plan period.Finally,the author puts forward policies and suggestions for stabilizing the overall price during the transformation of theeconomic development mode based on our actual situation.

数字经济赋能经济高质量发展的内在逻辑

作为以数字技术为支撑、信息为要素的新型经济形态,数字经济依托其高效的数据采集、处理、分析能力驱动产业结构升级,数字产业化及产业数字化的发展推动经济结构转型,大力提升社会生产力。聚焦经济高质量发展三大变革,认为数字经济通过动力变革、效率变革及质量变革赋能经济高质量发展,数字经济是促进我国经济转型、产业升级,实现经济高质量发展的重要战略选择。

吉林省城镇居民消费结构变动趋势及其影响因素研究

随着中国经济的快速发展和城镇化进程的不断推进,吉林省城镇居民消费水平和消费结构发生了显著的变化。分析和研究吉林省城镇居民消费结构的变动趋势及其影响因素,提出相应的对策建议,以促进消费结构的良性发展,提升居民的生活质量,对推动吉林省经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。