Changing Characteristics of Comfort Index of Human Body in Bengbu City in the Past 40 Years under the Background of Climate Change

Based on the daily meteorological data of Bengbu City during 1981-2020,the changing characteristics of three elements needed for the calculation of the comfort index of human body(CIHB)were discussed,and daily CIHB was classified and discussed.The results show that from 1981 to 2020,annual average temperature tended to increase significantly.Annual average wind speed and relative humidity showed a decreasing trend before 2011 but an increasing trend after 2011.The duration of the four seasons in Bengbu City mainly rose in spring,reduced in winter,declined first and then increased in summer,and rose first and then decreased in autumn.As CIHB was at grades 1 and 9(the most uncomfortable),the three factors had different effects on them.For cold weather,the influence of relative humidity and wind speed on CIHB can not be ignored besides temperature.In hot weather,the influence of temperature was dominant,and the change of annual average temperature could well correspond to the change in the number of very hot days.In the context of climate warming,the number of cold days tended to decline generally,but it was larger in the years with fewer very cold days.Under the background of climate warming,there was no obvious change in the number of days of the overall comfort of human body.The number of hot days was closely related to the duration of summer,and the number of days of grade 8 rose significantly in the years with an increase in the duration of summer.

Preparedness,knowledge,and perception of nursing students about climate change and its impact on human health in India

Higher education plays an important role in all aspects of sustainability.Infusing climate change and sustainability into the curriculum is important to prepare future health-care professionals for climate change and sustainability actions to build resilient health systems.In this study,we evaluated the preparedness,knowledge,and perception regarding climate change and its impact on human health among Indian nursing students.A quantitative descriptive survey was conducted among 644 undergraduate nursing students studying in three institutes in the southern,northern,and western parts of India.We used a structured online questionnaire with established validity and reliability to collect data.The data were analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 26 software.The results showed that more than half of the students reported experiencing excessive increase(362;56.2%)and decrease(374;58.1%)in temperature in recent years.Though more than three quarters of the students(494;76.7%)accepted the general truth that climate change is mainly caused by human activities,only less than half of the students(309;48.0%)perceived the impact of climate change to be high.Three quarters of the students(483;75.0%)had a high level of knowledge regarding climate change.The students who had a high level of knowledge about climate change exerted a high perceived impact of climate change(χ^(2)=75.47;P<0.01).More than half of the students(50.9%)felt that they needed information about climate change to be included in the nursing curriculum,and only one sixth of the students(16.1%)were highly confident about engaging in climate change-related conversation with patients.Most of the students who participated in the study had basic knowledge about climate change and its impact on human health.However,there is an observed gap between knowledge and their preparedness and confidence to engage in climate change actions.Hence,we propose to strengthen the nursing curriculum by integrating various curricular and co-curricular activities related to climate change,so that future nurses are empowered to become climate change advocates.

Impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation dynamics on the Mongolian Plateau, East Asia from 2000 to 2023

The Mongolian Plateau in East Asia is one of the largest contingent arid and semi-arid areas of the world.Under the impacts of climate change and human activities,desertification is becoming increasingly severe on the Mongolian Plateau.Understanding the vegetation dynamics in this region can better characterize its ecological changes.In this study,based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)images,we calculated the kernel normalized difference vegetation index(kNDVI)on the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2023,and analyzed the changes in kNDVI using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall significance test.We further investigated the impact of climate change on kNDVI change using partial correlation analysis and composite correlation analysis,and quantified the effects of climate change and human activities on kNDVI change by residual analysis.The results showed that kNDVI on the Mongolian Plateau was increasing overall,and the vegetation recovery area in the southern region was significantly larger than that in the northern region.About 50.99%of the plateau showed dominant climate-driven effects of temperature,precipitation,and wind speed on kNDVI change.Residual analysis showed that climate change and human activities together contributed to 94.79%of the areas with vegetation improvement.Appropriate human activities promoted the recovery of local vegetation,and climate change inhibited vegetation growth in the northern part of the Mongolian Plateau.This study provides scientific data for understanding the regional ecological environment status and future changes and developing effective ecological protection measures on the Mongolian Plateau.

Changes of coastline and tidal flat and its implication for ecological protection under human activities: Take China’s Bohai Bay as an example

The change processes and trends of shoreline and tidal flat forced by human activities are essential issues for the sustainability of coastal area,which is also of great significance for understanding coastal ecological environment changes and even global changes.Based on field measurements,combined with Linear Regression(LR)model and Inverse Distance Weighing(IDW)method,this paper presents detailed analysis on the change history and trend of the shoreline and tidal flat in Bohai Bay.The shoreline faces a high erosion chance under the action of natural factors,while the tidal flat faces a different erosion and deposition patterns in Bohai Bay due to the impact of human activities.The implication of change rule for ecological protection and recovery is also discussed.Measures should be taken to protect the coastal ecological environment.The models used in this paper show a high correlation coefficient between observed and modeling data,which means that this method can be used to predict the changing trend of shoreline and tidal flat.The research results of present study can provide scientific supports for future coastal protection and management.

Impact of climate change and human activities on the spatiotemporal dynamics of surface water area in Gansu Province, China

Understanding the dynamics of surface water area and their drivers is crucial for human survival and ecosystem stability in inland arid and semi-arid areas.This study took Gansu Province,China,a typical area with complex terrain and variable climate,as the research subject.Based on Google Earth Engine,we used Landsat data and the Open-surface Water Detection Method with Enhanced Impurity Control method to monitor the spatiotemporal dynamics of surface water area in Gansu Province from 1985 to 2022,and quantitatively analyzed the main causes of regional differences in surface water area.The findings revealed that surface water area in Gansu Province expanded by 406.88 km2 from 1985 to 2022.Seasonal surface water area exhibited significant fluctuations,while permanent surface water area showed a steady increase.Notably,terrestrial water storage exhibited a trend of first decreasing and then increasing,correlated with the dynamics of surface water area.Climate change and human activities jointly affected surface hydrological processes,with the impact of climate change being slightly higher than that of human activities.Spatially,climate change affected the'source'of surface water to a greater extent,while human activities tended to affect the'destination'of surface water.Challenges of surface water resources faced by inland arid and semi-arid areas like Gansu Province are multifaceted.Therefore,we summarized the surface hydrology patterns typical in inland arid and semi-arid areas and tailored surface water'supply-demand'balance strategies.The study not only sheds light on the dynamics of surface water area in Gansu Province,but also offers valuable insights for ecological protection and surface water resource management in inland arid and semi-arid areas facing water scarcity.

Quantitative distinction of the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution in the Yellow River Basin of China during 1981-2019

Under the combined influence of climate change and human activities,vegetation ecosystem has undergone profound changes.It can be seen that there are obvious differences in the evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of vegetation ecosystem in different historical periods.Therefore,it is urgent to identify and reveal the dominant factors and their contribution rates in the vegetation change cycle.Based on the data of climate elements(sunshine hours,precipitation and temperature),human activities(population intensity and GDP intensity)and other natural factors(altitude,slope and aspect),this study explored the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1989 to 2019 through a residual method,a trend analysis,and a gravity center model,and quantitatively distinguished the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution based on Geodetector model.The results showed that the spatial distribution of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest.During 1981-2019,the temporal variation of vegetation NDVI showed an overall increasing trend.The gravity centers of average vegetation NDVI during the study period was distributed in Zhenyuan County,Gansu Province,and the center moved northeastwards from 1981 to 2019.During 1981-2000 and 2001-2019,the proportion of vegetation restoration areas promoted by the combined action of climate change and human activities was the largest.During the study period(1981-2019),the dominant factors influencing vegetation NDVI shifted from natural factors to human activities.These results could provide decision support for the protection and restoration of vegetation ecosystem in the Yellow River Basin.

Human Rights-based Argumentation in Climate Change Lawsuits

Climate change lawsuits represented by strategic litigation have become a new force to promote global climate governance. Among them, using the norms and theories of human rights law to present litigation claims, conduct legal reasoning, and form human rights-based argumentation has been one of the most successful strategies for climate change lawsuits. The Paris Agreement marked a major watershed for human rights-based argumentation in climate change lawsuits: Before the signing of the Agreement, human rights-based argumentation in climate change lawsuits remained in its trial stage;since the signing of the Paris Agreement, as a litigation strategy, it has become more flexible and diversified, as its relationship with climate governance is becoming increasingly complicated. The uncertainty of climate legal obligation and the process of legalization of climate targets have fostered new dimensions for human rights-based argumentation: Shifting from an accountability logic to a litigation strategy, from international law to domestic law, from holding governments accountable to holding enterprises accountable. There are micro, medium, and macro paths to clarify the human rights-based argumentation, all leading to truly integrating human rights perspectives and ideas into a nation’s specific process of climate governance and valuing and leveraging the value of human rights-based argumentation as a tool, so as to achieve the goal of climate governance.

Impacts of artificial dams on terrestrial water storage changes and the Earth's elastic load response during 1950-2016: A case study of medium and large reservoirs in Chinese mainland

The construction of dams for intercepting and storing water has altered surface water distributions, landsea water exchanges, and the load response of the solid Earth. The lack of accurate estimation of reservoir properties through the land surface and hydrological models can lead to water storage simulation and extraction errors. This impact is particularly evident in many artificial reservoirs in China. The study aims to comprehensively assess the spatiotemporal distribution and trends of water storage in medium and large reservoirs(MLRs) in Chinese mainland during 1950-2016, and to investigate the gravity,displacement, and strain effects induced by the reservoir mass concentration using the load elasticity theory. In addition, the impoundment contributions of MLRs to the relative sea level changes were assessed using a sea-level equation. The results show impoundment increases in the MLRs during1950-2016, particularly in the Yangtze River(Changjiang) and southern basins, causing significant elastic load effects in the surrounding areas of the reservoirs and increasing the relative sea level in China's offshore. However, long-term groundwater estimation trends are overestimated and underestimated in the Yangtze River and southwestern basins, respectively, due to the neglect of the MLRs impacts or the uncertainty of the hydrological model's output(e.g., soil moisture, etc.). The construction of MLRs may reduce the water mass input from land to the ocean, thus slowing global sea level rise. The results of the impact of human activities on the regional water cycle provide important references and data support for improving the integration of hydrological models, evaluating Earth's viscoelastic responses under longterm reservoir storage, enhancing in-situ and satellite geodetic measurements, and identifying the main factors driving sea level changes.

Assessment of runoff changes in the sub-basin of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China based on multiple methods

Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff plays a pivotal role in water resource management and maintaining ecosystem integrity.This study considered six sub-basins in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin,China,to reveal the trend of the runoff evolution and clarify the driving factors of the changes during 1956–2020.Linear regression,Mann-Kendall test,and sliding t-test were used to study the trend of the hydrometeorological elements,while cumulative distance level and ordered clustering methods were applied to identify mutation points.The contributions of climate change and human disturbance to runoff changes were quantitatively assessed using three methods,i.e.,the rainfall-runoff relationship method,slope variation method,and variable infiltration capacity(Budyko)hypothesis method.Then,the availability and stability of the three methods were compared.The results showed that the runoff in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin exhibited a decreasing trend from 1956 to 2020,with an abrupt change in 1985.For attribution analysis,the runoff series could be divided into two phases,i.e.,1961–1985(baseline period)and 1986–2020(changing period);and it was found that the rainfall-runoff relationship method with precipitation as the representative of climate factors had limited usability compared with the other two methods,while the slope variation and Budyko hypothesis methods had highly consistent results.Different factors showed different effects in the sub-basins of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin.Moreover,human disturbance was the main factor that contributed to the runoff changes,accounting for 53.0%–82.0%;and the contribution of climate factors to the runoff change was 17.0%–47.0%,making it the secondary factor,in which precipitation was the most representative climate factor.These results provide insights into how climate and anthropogenic changes synergistically influence the runoff of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin.

Runoff change in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1960 to 2020 and its driving factors

Analysing runoff changes and how these are affected by climate change and human activities is deemed crucial to elucidate the ecological and hydrological response mechanisms of rivers.The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration and the Range of Variability Approach(IHA-RVA)method,as well as the ecological indicator method,were employed to quantitatively assess the degree of hydrologic change and ecological response processes in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020.Using Budyko's water heat coupling balance theory,the relative contributions of various driving factors(such as precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,and underlying surface)to runoff changes in the Yellow River Basin were quantitatively evaluated.The results show that the annual average runoff and precipitation in the Yellow River Basin had a downwards trend,whereas the potential evapotranspiration exhibited an upwards trend from 1960 to 2020.In approximately 1985,it was reported that the hydrological regime of the main stream underwent an abrupt change.The degree of hydrological change was observed to gradually increase from upstream to downstream,with a range of 34.00%-54.00%,all of which are moderate changes.However,significant differences have been noted among different ecological indicators,with a fluctuation index of 90.00%at the outlet of downstream hydrological stations,reaching a high level of change.After the mutation,the biodiversity index of flow in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River was generally lower than that in the base period.The research results also indicate that the driving factor for runoff changes in the upper reach of the Yellow River Basin is mainly precipitation,with a contribution rate of 39.31%-54.70%.Moreover,the driving factor for runoff changes in the middle and lower reaches is mainly human activities,having a contribution rate of 63.70%-84.37%.These results can serve as a basis to strengthen the protection and restoration efforts in the Yellow River Basin and further promote the rational development and use of water resources in the Yellow River.

Centennial Analysis of Human Activity Intensity and Associated Historical Events in Heilongjiang River Sino-Russo Watershed

Human activities in a transborder watershed are complex under the influence of domestic policies,international relations,and global events.Understanding the forces driving human activity change is important for the development of transborder watershed.In this study,we used global historical land cover data,the hemeroby index model,and synthesized major historical events to analyze how human activity intensity changed in the Heilongjiang River(Amur River in Russia)watershed(HLRW).The results showed that there was a strong spatial heterogeneity in the variation of human activity intensity in the HLRW over the past century(1900-2016).On the Chinese side,the human activity intensity change shifted from the plain areas for agricultural reclamation to the mountainous areas for timber extraction.On the Russian side,human activity intensity changes mostly concentrated along the Trans-Siberian Railway and the Baikal-Amur Mainline.Localized variation of human activity intensity tended to respond to regional events while regionalized variation tends to reflect national policy change or broad international events.The similarities and differences between China and Russia in policies and positions in international events resulted in synchronous and asynchronous changes in human activity intensity.Meanwhile,policy shifts were often confined by the natural features of the watershed.These results reveal the historical origins and fundamental connotations of watershed development and contribute to formulating regional management policies that coordinate population,eco-nomic,social,and environmental activities.

Correlation analysis of human papillomavirus E6/E7 mRNA detection with diagnosis,prognosis and recurrence risk in patients with cervical epithelioma

BACKGROUND Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia(CIN)is an important precursor of cervical cancer.Early detection and treatment can reduce the incidence of cervical cancer.AIM To investigate the detection rate of human papillomavirus(HPV)E6/E7 mRNA in cervical tissue of patients with different types of epithelial cell neoplasia(CIN)and its relationship with CIN progression and diagnosis.METHODS One hundred women with HPV infection detected by cervical exfoliation cytology between January 2022 and January 2023 were retrospectively selected.These patients were graded CIN based on colposcopy and cervical pathology.The positive expression rates of HPV E6/E7 mRNA and HPV[polymerase chain reaction(PCR)-reverse dot crossing]were compared among all groups.Patients with HPV E6/E7 mRNA expression in the grade 1 CIN group were followed up for 1 yr.The relationship between atypical squamous epithelium and high malignant epithelial neoplasia was investigated by univariate and multivariate analysis.RESULTS The diagnostic sensitivity,specificity,and sensitivity of PCR-reverse point hybrid ization technology for secondary CIN were 70.41%,70.66%,and 0.714,respectively.Sensitivity and specificity for secondary CIN were 752%and 7853%,respectively,the area under the curve value was 0.789.Logistic Multifactorial model analysis revealed that the HPV positive rates and the HPV E6/E7 mRNA positive rates were independent risk factors of CIN grade I(P<0.05).In CIN grade I patients with positive for HPV E6/E7 mRNA,in its orientation to grade CIN patients,in its orientation to grade CIN patients,at 69.2%,compared with patients negative for HPV E6/E7 mRNA(30.8%),significant difference(P<0.05).CONCLUSION HPV E6/E7 mRNA and HPV(PCR-reverse dot hybrid)positive expression have a close relationship with CINgrade disease progression and is an independent risk factor for high-grade CIN lesions.

The Changing Ground of Human Rights

EDITOR＇S NOTE： Experts from across the world were invited to present papers at the Fifth Beijing Forum on Human Rights, which focused on Science and Technology, Environment and Human Rights, in Beijing from Dec 12 to 14. Excerpts from some of experts＇ papers follow：

Monitoring the impact of climate change and human activities on grassland vegetation dynamics in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China during 2000–2015

Climate change and human activities can influence vegetation net primary productivity(NPP), a key component of natural ecosystems. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China, in spite of its significant natural and cultural values, is one of the most susceptible regions to climate change and human disturbances in the world. To assess the impact of climate change and human activities on vegetation dynamics in the grassland ecosystems of the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, we applied a time-series trend analysis to normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) datasets from 2000 to 2015 and compared these spatiotemporal variations with trends in climatic variables over the same time period. The constrained ordination approach(redundancy analysis) was used to determine which climatic variables or human-related factors mostly influenced the variation of NDVI. Furthermore, in order to determine whether current conservation measures and programs are effective in ecological protection and reconstruction, we divided the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau into two parts: the Three-River Headwater conservation area(TRH zone) in the south and the non-conservation area(NTRH zone) in the north. The results indicated an overall(73.32%) increasing trend of vegetation NPP in grasslands throughout the study area. During the period 2000–2015, NDVI in the TRH and NTRH zones increased at the rates of 0.0015/a and 0.0020/a, respectively. Specifically, precipitation accounted for 9.2% of the total variation in NDVI, while temperature accounted for 13.4%. In addition, variation in vegetation NPP of grasslands responded not only to long-and short-term changes in climate, as conceptualized in non-equilibrium theory, but also to the impact of human activities and their associated perturbations. The redundancy analysis successfully separated the relative contributions of climate change and human activities, of which village population and agricultural gross domestic product were the two most important contributors to the NDVI changes, explaining 17.8% and 17.1% of the total variation of NDVI(with the total contribution >30.0%), respectively. The total contribution percentages of climate change and human activities to the NDVI variation were 27.5% and 34.9%, respectively, in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Finally, our study shows that the grassland restoration in the study area was enhanced by protection measures and programs in the TRH zone, which explained 7.6% of the total variation in NDVI.

Desertification dynamic and the relative roles of climate change and human activities in desertification in the Heihe River Basin based on NPP

Relative roles of climate change and human activities in desertification are the hotspot of research on desertification dynamic and its driving mechanism.To overcome the shortcomings of existing studies,this paper selected net primary productivity （NPP） as an indicator to analyze desertification dynamic and its impact factors.In addition,the change trends of actual NPP,potential NPP and HNPP （human appropriation of NPP,the difference between potential NPP and actual NPP） were used to analyze the desertification dynamic and calculate the relative roles of climate change,human activities and a combination of the two factors in desertification.In this study,the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS）-Normalised Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） and meteorological data were utilized to drive the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach （CASA） model to calculate the actual NPP from 2001 to 2010 in the Heihe River Basin.Potential NPP was estimated using the Thornthwaite Memorial model.Results showed that 61％ of the whole basin area underwent land degradation,of which 90.5％ was caused by human activities,8.6％ by climate change,and 0.9％ by a combination of the two factors.On the contrary,1.5％ of desertification reversion area was caused by human activities and 90.7％ by climate change,the rest 7.8％ by a combination of the two factors.Moreover,it was demonstrated that 95.9％ of the total actual NPP decrease was induced by human activities,while 69.3％ of the total actual NPP increase was caused by climate change.The results revealed that climate change dominated desertification reversion,while human activities dominated desertification expansion.Moreover,the relative roles of both climate change and human activities in desertification possessed great spatial heterogeneity.Additionally,ecological protection policies should be enhanced in the Heihe River Basin to prevent desertification expansion under the condition of climate change.

Impact assessment of climate change and human activities on annual highest water level of Taihu Lake

The annual highest water level of Taihu Lake （Zm） is very significant for flood management in the Taihu Basin. This paper first describes the inter-annual and intra-annual traits of Zm from 1956 to 2000. Then, using the Mann-Kenall （MK） and Spearman （SP） nonparametric tests, the long-term change trends of area precipitation and pan evaporation in the Taihu Basin are determined. Meanwhile, using the Morlet wavelet transformation, the fluctuation patterns and change points of precipitation and pan evaporation are analyzed. Also, human activities in the Taihu Basin are described, including land use change and hydraulic project construction. Finally, the relationship between Zm, the water level of Taihu Lake 30 days prior to the day of Zm （Z0）, and the 30-day total precipitation and pan evaporation prior to the day of Zm （P and E0, respectively） is described based on multi-linear regression equations. The relative influence of climate change and human activities on the change of Zm is quantitatively ascertained. The results demonstrate that： （1） Zm was distinctly higher during the 1980-2000 period than during the 1956-1979 period, and the 30 days prior to the day of Zm are the key phase influencing Zm every year; （2） P increased significantly at a confidence level of 95% during the 1956-2000 period, while the reverse was true for E0; （3） The relationship between Zm, P and E0 distinctly changed after 1980; （4） Climate change and human activities together caused frequent occurrences of high Zm after 1980; （5） Climate change caused a substantially greater Zm difference between the 1956-1979 and 1980-2000 periods than human activities. Climate change, as represented by P and E0, was the dominant factor raising Zm, with a relative influence ratio of 83.6%, while human activities had a smaller influence ratio of 16.4%.

A Preliminary Study of Holocene Climate Change and Human Adaptation in the Horqin Region

Human activity during the Holocene in the Horqin region, northeastern China, has been widely documented. As an important proxy record of human activity, black carbon（BC） in sediments has been linked to climate change and human adaptation. A loess-paleosol section located in south Horqin was chosen for this study. Holocene climate change and human adaptation to the environment were discussed by analyzing BC, organic carbon（OC） and other proxies. The conclusions included：（1） before 3900 cal BP, human activity was closely related to the natural environment and cultural development was dominated by climate change. For example, the rapid decline of the agrarian Hongshan culture was caused by a slight decrease in temperature at ~5000 cal BP;（2） during 3900-3200 cal BP, the heavy dependence of human societies on nature gradually lessened and the ability of those human societies to adapt to the environment was enhanced. However, the farming-dominated Lower Xiajiadian culture was nonetheless replaced by the pastoralist Upper Xiajiadian culture due to an extremely cooling event at ~3200 cal BP;（3） during the late Holocene period, the marked influence of climate change on human activity might have lessened as a result of a clear improvement in human labor skills. After this, human living styles were influenced by cultural developments rather than climate change because humans had mastered more powerful means of productivity.

Effects of climate change and human activity on lake shrinkage in Gonghe Basin of northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the past 60 years

Changes in the status of freshwater resources are a topic of major global, regional and local concern. This is especially so in the arid and semi-arid regions of China, where shortage of water resources plays a crucial role in limiting sustainable socioeconomic development, as well as in sustaining natural ecosystems. Recent climate change, as well as the effects of localized human activity, such as the use of water for irrigation agriculture, may have significant effects on the status of the water resources in the region. Here, we report the results of a study of changes in the areas of lakes in Gonghe Basin, northeastern Tibetan Plateau of China, over the last 60 years. The data were acquired from optical satellite images and demonstrate that the total water area of lakes in Gonghe Basin decreased significantly from the 1950s to 1980s. The cause is ascribed mainly to human activity including exploitation of farmland, against a background of increasing population; in addition, climatic data for the region demonstrate a minor drying trend during this period as the temperature increased slightly. After the construction of several reservoirs, significant amounts of water were redistributed to promote irrigation agriculture and we conclude that this caused a significant shrinkage of the natural lakes. However, both the area of farmland and the population size remained approximately constant after 1990. We conclude that the variation of the total area of lakes during the second period was mainly controlled by climatic factors （precipitation and temperature）. As the regional temperature reached a new high, the area of some of the lakes decreased sharply before finally maintaining a relatively steady state. We emphasize that anthropogenic climate change and human activity have both significantly influenced the status of water resources in the arid and semi-arid regions of China.

HUMAN DRIVING MECHANISM OF REGIONAL LAND USE CHANGE:A CASE STUDY OF KARST MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN CHINA

Based on analysis of the change of land use and related social- economic factors in karst mountain areas of southwestern China, the index system characterizing land use change and its human driving forces in county scale is put forward. Then the relationship of land use change and the driving forces is studied by statistic analysis to identify quantitatively the contribution of human forces and their differences in driving land use change. Moreover, taking the Luodian County as the case, a model simulating the annual change of cultivated land area under the driving of human forces is built. Result of the study will supply reference for the management of the relationship of man and land in karst mountain areas of southern- western China, and accumulate research experience for further study on land use/cover change.

Hydrological response to climate change and human activities:A case study of Taihu Basin,China

Climate change and human activities have changed a number of characteristics of river flow in the Taihu Basin.Based on long-term time series of hydrological data from 1986 to 2015,we analyzed variability in precipitation,water stage,water diversion from the Yangtze River,and net inflow into Taihu Lake with the Mann-Kendall test.The non-stationary relationship between precipitation and water stage was first analyzed for the Taihu Basin and the Wuchengxiyu(WCXY)sub-region.The optimized regional and urban regulation schemes were explored to tackle high water stage problems through the hydrodynamic model.The results showed the following:(1)The highest,lowest,and average Taihu Lake water stages of all months had increasing trends.The total net inflow into Taihu Lake from the Huxi(HX)sub-region and the Wangting Sluice increased significantly.(2)The Taihu Lake water stage decreased much more slowly after 2002;it was steadier and higher after 2002.After the construction of Wuxi urban flood control projects,the average water stage of the inner city was 0.16e0.40 m lower than that of suburbs in the flood season,leading to the transfer of flooding in inner cities to suburbs and increasing inflow from HX into Taihu Lake.(3)The regional optimized schemes were more satisfactory in not increasing the inner city flood control burden,thereby decreasing the average water stage by 0.04e0.13 m,and the highest water stage by 0.04e0.09 m for Taihu Lake and the sub-region in the flood season.Future flood control research should set the basin as the basic unit.Decreasing diversion and drainage lines along the Yangtze River can take an active role in flood control.