The Relation between Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation and Summer Severe Flood and Drought in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin

The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is studied during the severe flood and drought years of the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the precipitation data in China. The results show that the upper-level (200 hPa) ISO pattern for severe flood (drought) is characterized by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the southern Tibetan Plateau and a cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation over the northern Tibetan Plateau. The lower-level (850 hPa) ISO pattern is characterized by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the area south of the Changjiang River, the South China Sea, and the Western Pacific, and a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation from the area north of the Changjiang River to Japan. These low-level ISO circulation patterns are the first modes of the ISO wind field according to the vector EOF expansion with stronger amplitude of the EOF1 time coefficient in severe flood years than in severe drought years. The analyses also reveal that at 500 hPa and 200 hPa, the atmospheric ISO activity over the Changjiang-Huaihe River basin, North China, and the middle-high latitudes north of China is stronger for severe flood than for severe drought. The ISO meridional wind over the middle-high latitude regions can propagate southwards and meet with the northward propagating ISO meridional wind from lower latitude regions over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin during severe flood years, but not during severe drought years.

Comparison study of environmental influences on the intensification of different deep Changjiang-Huaihe cyclones over the East China and Yellow Seas

Abstract： Statistical classification of the intensification of different deepChangiang-Huaihe Cyclones （CHCs） over the East China and Yellow Seas （ECYSs）during 2008 to 2012 is studied using the FNL reanalysis data. Based on the penetrationdepth and the season of occurrence, the CHCs are divided into four categoriesincluding warm-season-deep （WSD）, warm-season-shallow （WSS）, winter-shallow（WTS） and early-spring-bottom （ESB）. Statistics show the CHCs take either aneastward or a northeastward path after entering ECYSs. After moving to the seas, theintensification of CHCs is more significant in cold season than that in warm season.They all have the reduction of the friction of the underlying surface and the increase ofthe near surface winds. The area of strong winds extends and migrates from the east tothe southeast of the CHCs. A significant increase of precipitation during the warmseasons is consistent with the penetration depth of the cyclones. While a slight increaseof precipitation in cold season cyclones and scattered precipitation is observed behindthe ESB cyclones in the early stage of spring. Synthetic diagnosis analysis of the CHCsover ECYSs shows that the latent heat release plays an important role in theamplification of cyclones during the warm season. The ESB cyclones are sensitive tothe dynamic and thermal effects from the underlying surface. The vertical stretching of the positive vorticity volume is much more significant in ESB cyclones than that in othercyclones. The height of maximum upper level divergence is proportional to thepenetration depth of the cyclone for all the categories. Diabatic heating from the underlying surface is more prominent in cold season cyclones. Downward transport ofthe kinetic energy from upper level jet and the reduced friction both have positivecontributions to intensification of the CHCs. Moist Potential Vorticity （MPV） has morecontribution to the intensification of warm season cyclones, especially WSD cyclones.The combined effects from inertial stability and shear stability are beneficial to theamplification of the cyclones in cold season. The position and strength of thetemperature and moisture front from MPV2 term at 1000 hPa coincides with the areaand intensity of precipitation, which shows that the MPV2 is an effective reference forCHCs rainfall forecast.

Typicality Analysis on A Meiyu Front Rainstorm in Yangtze-Huaihe

By Doppler weather radar and satellite cloud data,the Meiyu front rainstorm which occurred in the north of Huaihe River and the north region of Yangtze-Huaihe was analyzed during July 1-2,2006.The characteristics of infrared satellite cloud,radar basic reflectivity and Doppler radial velocity were discussed in this rainstorm,such as the echo intensity,the characteristics of velocity field and so on.The reasons for this rainstorm were analyzed by these characteristics.The combination of radar and satellite data in the role of forecasting Meiyu front rainstorm was studied.

Vertical Helicity Analysis of First Rainstorm at the Beginning of Meiyu in Hubei in 2009

By using the data in Hubei automatic rainfall station and NCEP 1°×1° global reanalysis data,the vertical helicity analysis on the rainstorm weather process which happened in Hubei Province during June 28-30 in 2009 was done.The results showed that the spatial and temporal evolution characteristic of vertical helicity could reflect well the occurrence time and the falling zone of strong precipitation in the situation that the strong vertical ascent movement in the whole layer stably maintained.The distribution of 700 hPa vertical helicity gradient big value area which was 6 h interval and the ∑θse(500+700+850) horizontal energy frontal zone superposition area both had the good directive significance for the falling zone of 6 h heavy precipitation.The zone where the heavy precipitation appeared had the configuration of positive vertical helicity in the low layer and the negative vertical helicity in the high layer.When the positive vertical helicity in the low layer was slightly higher than the negative vertical helicity in the high layer,it favored the generation of heavy rainstorm center.

The Water Vapor Transport Model at the Regional Boundaryduring the Meiyu Period

The water vapor transport model at the regional boundary in the Meiyu period is put forward through diagnostic analysis. The numerical simulation on the water vapor transport at the boundary of China in the heavy rainfall period during June–July 1998 shows that the feature of water vapor transport in June is different from that in July. The main body of the water cycle that forms the torrential rain in the Yangtze River Valley is made up of water vapor transport at the western and southern boundaries of the China region in June, whereas the water vapor flow at the western boundary in middle Tibet turns out to be the main body of water vapor sources in July. The water vapor transport at the western boundary of the Tibetan Plateau and the southern boundary of China plays an important role in the torrential rain in the Yangtze River Valley. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water vapor flow at the regional boundary and their theoretical model would provide the scientific proof for the heavy rain forecasts in the Yangtze River Valley.

Persistence of Snow Cover Anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau and the Implications for Forecasting Summer Precipitation over the Meiyu-Baiu Region

The present reported study investigated the persistence of snow anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) from the preceding seasons to summer and the relationship between the previous snow cover anomaly and summer precipitation over East Asia. The results showed that, relative to other snow indices, such as the station observational snow depth(SOSD) index and the snow water equivalent(SWE) index, the snow cover area proportion(SCAP) index calculated from the SWE and the percentage of visible snow of the Equal-Area Scalable Earth Grids(EASE-grids) dataset has a higher persistence in interannual anomalies, particularly from May to summer. As such, the May SCAP index is significantly related to summer precipitation over the Meiyu-Baiu region. The persistence of the SCAP index can partly explain the season-delayed effect of snow cover over the TP on summer rainfall over the Meiyu-Baiu region besides the contribution of the soil moisture bridge. The preceding SST anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean and ENSO can persist through the summer and affect the summer precipitation over the Meiyu-Baiu region. However, the May SCAP index is mostly independent of the simultaneous SSTs in the tropical Indian Ocean and the preceding ENSO and may affect the summer precipitation over the Meiyu-Baiu region independent of the effects of the SST anomalies. Therefore, the May SCAP over the TP could be regarded as an important supplementary factor in the forecasting of summer precipitation over the Meiyu-Baiu region.

Numerical Simulations of Intense Meiyu Rainfall in 1991 over the Changjiang and Huaihe River Valleys by a Regional Climate Model with p-σ Incorporated Coordinate System

Based on the primitive equation model with p- σ incorporated coordinate system originally developed by Qian et al., a one-way nested fine mesh limited area model is developed. This model is nested with ECMWF T42 data to simulate the extra-intensive rainfall event occurring in the Changjiang and Huaihe River valleys in summer of 1991. The results show that the model has certain capacity to fairly reproduce the regional distribution and the movement of the main rainfall belts. Therefore it can be used as a regional climate model to simulate and predict the short-range regional climate changes.

Observation and Numerical Simulation of Cloud Physical Processes Associated with Torrential Rain of the Meiyu Front

Cloud micro-physical structures in a precipitation system associated with the Meiyu front are observed using the balloon-borne Precipitation Particle Image Sensor at Baoshan observatory station, Shanghai during June and July 1999. The vertical distributions of various cloud particle size, number density, and mass density are retrieved from the observations. Analyses of observations show that ice-phase particles (ice crystals, graupel, snowflakes, and frozen drops) often exist in the cloud of torrential rain associated with the Meiyu front. Among the various particles, ice crystals and graupel are the most numerous, but graupel and snow have the highest mass density. Ice-phase particles coexist with liquid water droplets near the 0°C level. The graupel is similarly distributed with height as the ice crystals. Raindrops below the 0°C level are mainly from melted grauple, snowflakes and frozen drops. They may further grow larger by coalescence with smaller ones as they fall from the cloud base. Numerical simulations using the non-hydrostatic meso-scale model MM5 with the Reisner graupel explicit moisture scheme confirm the main observational results. Rain water at the lower level is mainly generated from the melting of snow and graupel falling from the upper level where snow and graupel are generated and grown from collection with cloud and rain water. Thus the mixed-phase cloud process, in which ice phase coexists and interacts with liquid phase (cloud and rain drops), plays the most important role in the formation and development of heavy convective rainfall in the Meiyu frontal system.

Diagnosis of the Heavy Rain near a Meiyu Front Using the Wet Q Vector Partitioning Method

A heavy rain process of the Changjiang-Huaihe Meiyu front (MYF) is diagnosed by the agency of the traditional Q vector partitioning (QVP) method to decompose the wet Q vector (Q) in a natural coordinate system that follows the isoentropes and by using the numerical simulation results of the revised MM4 meso-scale model. The technique shows that the partitioned wet Q vectors can lead to a significant scale separation of vertical motion related to the torrential rain. The results not only verify the existing conclusion that different scales interact throughout the rainstorm but also indicate the largely different roles of these scales during differing phases of the heavy ramfall on a quantitative basis. Specifically, during the developing stage, the large-scale plays a predominant role in forcing vertical motion, while frontal-scale forcing is secondary; during the intense stage, the frontal-scale evolves into the primary factor of forcing vertical motion, whereas the large-scale forcing is minor and plays a diminishing role and can even be ignored; and during the decaying stage, the large-scale once again serves as the main forcing of vertical motion in such a way that the forcing of the frontal-scale decays quickly and is of secondary importance. Furthermore, the partitioned wet Q vectors are suggested to be more suitable than the total wet Q vector for evaluating the potential physical mechanism of rainstorm genesis. The first step is that the forcing of large-scale $2?bla cdot {? Q}_s^*$ gives rise to the genesis of meso-scale $2?bla cdot {? Q}_n^*$ forcing; and then, accordingly as $2?bla cdot {? Q}_n^*$ forcing increases, whereby the secondary circulation is reinforced, the intensity of the rainfall is strengthened; and at last, the secondary circulation caused by $2?bla cdot {? Q}_n^*$ forcing is directly responsible for generation of the MYF heavy rainfall.

A Study on the Meiyu Front Using TRMM/PR Data during the 1998 GAME/HUBEX

A method is investigated to analyze the structure and the synoptic characteristics of a frontal rain belt according to the combination of TRMM/PR images and conventional weather data during the 1998 GAME/HUBEX. The space-borne precipitation radar (PR) provides some detailed characteristics and inner structures of the frontal rain belt over a large area, and the synoptic analysis for this frontal case is also presented. It is demonstrated that the traditional theories of radar meteorology are still applicable, while PR has great advantages for showing the spatial distribution of rainfall and has potential value for analyzing the characteristics of the Meiyu front.

THE NORTH-SOUTH ANTI-PHASE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL IN MEIYU PERIODS AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH QUASI-BIWEEKLY OSCILLATION IN THE ATMOSPHERE

Based on the daily rainfall datasets from 740 stations in China from 1954 to 2005 and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the relationship between the north-south anti-phase distribution(APD) of rainfall during Meiyu periods and the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation(QBWO) in the atmosphere was analyzed. Diagnostic results are as follows:(1) there was significant north-south oscillation of Meiyu rainfall during the 16 years from 1954 to 2005. Since the 1990 s, the APD enhanced significantly and showed 2- and 4-6-year period. In the region with more rainfall, the QBWO was always more active.(2) The APD of Meiyu and north-south movements of precipitation in eastern China belong to the same phase.(3) The 10-25 day filtered water vapor flux could spread to the area north of 30°N in 1991. The divergence of the water vapor flux which propagated from middle- and higher- latitudes to the of Yangtze-Huaihe River Basins(YHRB) was significant in 1991, but the latitudes that the water vapor flux could reach were further southward and there was no southward propagation of divergence in 1993.(4) The locations of Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) and 10-25 day anti-cyclone, which modulated WPSH's advancement in and out of the South China Sea, were relatively northward in 1991. Furthermore, the vertical circulation showed north-south deviation between 1991 and 1993, just as other elements of the circulation did.

Numerical Experiments of Meiyu(Baiu) Rainfall by Quasi-Lagrangian Limited Area Model with Terrain

In this paper, a 10-level Quasi-Lagrangian Limited Area Model is used to simulate the process of Meiyu(Baiu) front of 1979. Some physical processes, such as large-scale condensation and cumulus convection, are included in the model. The simulation results are encouraging. 24-h numerical simulation shows that the invading of cold air from North China and rapidly northward moving of warm air from South China can be successfully reproduced. The terrain with a maximum of 4175 m is incorporated in the model. Three different kinds of terrain schemes are tested and the dynamic effect of the Plateau on the process of heavy rainfall is found to be very important.

Some Analyses and Numerical Simulations of Meiyu in East Asia in 1983

In this paper the differences between Meiyu and Baiu front in 1983 have firstly been analysed, the trajectories of air on and to the north side of Meiyu and Baiu fronts during the Meiyu period have then been traced, and the forecasting and simulating of 4 sets of Meiyu onset of the year have finally been run utilizing the global model at UK Me-leorological Office. The results show: 1) Meiyu fronts are different from Baiu ones in temperature, humidity and stratification fields in lower atmosphere; and the possibly reasons for it are explained. 2) The Bay of Bengal is the main moisture source for Meiyu front, the South China Sea and the Pacific, for Baiu ones; and some existed arguments on it are also discussed. 3) The onset of Meiyu and its rainfall and rain belts are sensitive to the Tibetan Plateau, and the water vapour conditions over the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, but not sensitive to the SST over the equatorial area or to the East of Japan.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ATMOSPHERIC HEATING SOURCE/SINK ANOMALIES OF ASIAN MONSOON AND FLOOD/DROUGHT IN THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN IN THE MEIYU PERIOD

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and a 30-year precipitation dataset of observed daily rainfall from 109 gauge stations are utilized in this paper.Using the REOF we analyzed the spatial distribution of precipitation in the 109 stations in the Yangtze River Basin in Meiyu periods from 1978 to 2007.The result showed that the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin can be divided into the south and north part.As a result,relationships between an atmospheric heating source(hereafter called <Q_1>) over the Asian region and the precipitation on the south and north side of Yangtze River in Meiyu periods were separately studied in this paper.The results are shown as follows.The flood/drought to the north of Yangtze River(NYR) was mainly related to the <Q_1> over the East Asia summer monsoon region:when the <Q_1> over the Philippines through Western Pacific and the south China was weakened(strengthened),it would probably result in the flood(drought) in NYR;and the precipitation on the south side of Yangtze River(SYR)was related to the <Q_1> over the east Asia and Indian summer monsoon region:when the <Q_1> over the areas from south China to the northern East China Sea and Yellow Sea and south-eastern Japan was strengthened(weakened),and the <Q_1> over the areas from the Bay of Bengal to south-eastern Tibetan Plateau was weakened(strengthened),it will lead to flood(drought) in SYR.

Physical Mechanism of Phased Variation of 2020 Extremely Heavy Meiyu in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River

The extremely heavy Meiyu in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in 2020 features early beginning,extremely late retreat,long duration,and a dramatic north-south swing rain belt.It can be divided into three phases.The key point of the extremely heavy Meiyu is the long duration of precipitation.The physical mechanism of the phased variation is researched here by analyzing the phased evolution of atmospheric circulation,the thermal effect of Tibetan Plateau,the sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA),and tropical convection.The results show that:(1)Throughout the whole Meiyu season,the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)is stronger and westward,the South Asian high(SAH)is stronger and eastward,and blocking highs are very active with different patterns at different stages;they all form flat mid-latitude westerlies with fluctuation interacting with WPSH and SAH,causing their ridges and the rain belt to swing drastically from north to south or vice versa.(2)The higher temperatures in the upper and middle atmosphere in the eastern and southern Tibetan Plateau and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,which are produced by the warm advection transport,the heat sources in Tibetan Plateau,and the latent heat of condensation of Meiyu,contribute greatly to the stronger and westward WPSH and the stronger and eastward SAH.The dry-cold air brought by the fluctuating westerlies converges with the warm-humid air over Tibetan Plateau,resulting in precipitation,which in turn enhances the heat source of Tibetan Plateau and regulates the swings of WPSH and SAH.(3)Different from climatological analysis,real-time SSTA in the Indian Ocean has no obviously direct effect on WPSH and Meiyu.The anomalous distribution and phased evolution process of real-time SSTA in South China Sea and the tropical western Pacific affect WPSH and Meiyu significantly through tropical convection and heat sources.The maintenance of strong positive SSTA in the western equatorial Pacific is a critical reason for the prolonged Meiyu season.Both the onset and the retreat of Meiyu in 2020 are closely related to the intensified positive SSTA and corresponding typhoons on the ocean east of the Philippines.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MEIYU IN THE MID- AND LOWER REACHES OF THE YANGTZE RIVER VALLEY AND THE BOREAL SPRING SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ANNUAL MODE

1 INTRODUCTIONAs confirmed by many studies, sea surface pressure is of interannual variations in subtropical Southern Hemisphere, which is defined as the Southern-hemisphere Annual Mode （SAM）. It is in fact a seesaw effect of sea surface pressure symmetric longitudinally between the South Pole region and austral middle latitudes. SAM is in fact a correction to the Antarctic Atmospheric Oscillation （AAO）. At present, more attention is paid to the structure of SAM and its influence on the climate in mid- and higherlatitudes of SH than to the links between SAM and anomalies of boreal general circulation and climate. This work focuses on the relation among SAM in boreal spring （April - May）, Mei-yu （sustaining rains） in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and East Asian monsoon.

The Analysis on the Temporal and Spatial Variation of Strong Precipitation Caused Flood and Agricultural Disaster Loss in Huaihe River Basin of Anhui Province during Meiyu Period of 2007

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal and spatial variation of strong precipitation caused flood and agricultural disaster loss in Huaihe River basin of Anhui Province during Meiyu period of 2007.[Method] On the basis of rainfalls of each station in Huaihe River basin of Anhui,rainfall data during Meiyu period of 2007 and flood disaster data in the same period,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of strong precipitation caused flood during Meiyu period of 2007 and its harm on agriculture were analyzed.The variation rule,distribution characteristics of strong precipitation during Meiyu period in Huaihe River basin of Anhui and its relationship with agricultural disaster loss were discussed.[Result] During Meiyu period of 2007 in Huaihe River basin of Anhui,the rainstorm was more,and the rainfall was large.The precipitation variation showed 'three-peak' trend.Rainfall in Huaihe River basin during Meiyu period of 2007 was greatly more than that homochronously in Yangtze River basin.The rain area over 400.0 mm during Meiyu period mainly located in Huaihe River basin,and the rain area over 600.0 mm mainly located from area along Huaihe River to central Huaibei.The rainfall during Meiyu period gradually decreased toward south and north by the north bank of Huaihe River as the symmetry axis.The rainfall in area along Huaihe River showed wavy distribution in east-west direction.The flood disaster loss index and disaster area of crops in Huaihe River basin of Anhui both increased as rainfall in Meiyu period.[Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for flood prevention,disaster reduction and agricultural flood-avoiding development in Huaihe River basin.

THE DYNAMICAL ANALYSIS OF THE STRUCTURE OF Β MESO-SCALE DOUBLE RAINBANDS IN MEIYU FRONT

In this paper, an idealized perturbation following the ＂surge-flow conceptual model＂ for typical Meiyu frontal structure is designed to explain the β meso-scale structure ofrainbands in the Meiyu front using a non-hydrostatic, full-compressible storm-scale model including multi-phase microphysical parameterization. In addition, sensitivity numerical experiment on the vertical distribution of the ambient meridional wind is conducted to investigate the generation mechanism of D meso-scale double rainbands. The results of numerical experiments show that the cool and dry downdraft invading strengthened by the environmental aloft northerly wind plays a very important role to the generation and maintenance of the β meso-scale double rainbands. Moreover, the intensity and scale of the dry and cool downdraft invading are related to the intensity of the second circumfluence induced by mass adjustment when the acceleration of the westerly jet aloft occurs.

The Relationship Between Abnormal Meiyu and Medium-Term Scale Wave Perturbation Energy Propagation Along the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet

The East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ)is one of the most important factors modulating the Meiyu rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin,China.This article analyzed periods of the medium-term EASWJ variation,wave packet distribution and energy propagation of Rossby waves along the EASWJ during Meiyu season,and investigated their possible influence on abnormal Meiyu rain.The results showed that during the medium-term scale atmospheric dynamic process,the evolution of the EASWJ in Meiyu season was mainly characterized by the changes of3-8 d synoptic-scale and 10-15 d low-frequency Rossby waves.The strong perturbation wave packet and energy propagation of the 3-8 d synoptic-scale and 10-15 d low-frequency Rossby waves are mostly concentrated in the East Asian region of 90°-150°E,where the two wave trains of perturbation wave packets and wave-activity flux divergence coexist in zonal and meridional directions,and converge on the EASWJ.Besides,the wave trains of perturbation wave packet and wave-activity flux divergence in wet Meiyu years are more systematically westward than those in dry Meiyu years,and they are shown in the inverse phases between each other.In wet(dry)Meiyu year,the perturbation wave packet high-value area of the 10-15 d low-frequency variability is located between the Aral Sea and the Lake Balkhash(in the northeastern part of China),while over eastern China the wave-activity flux is convergent and strong(divergent and weak),and the high-level jets are strong and southward(weak and northward).Because of the coupling of high and low level atmosphere and high-level strong(weak)divergence on the south side of the jet over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin,the low-level southwest wind and vertically ascending motion are strengthened(weakened),which is(is not)conducive to precipitation increase in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin.These findings would help to better understand the impact mechanisms of the EASWJ activities on abnormal Meiyu from the perspective of medium-term scale Rossby wave energy propagation.

Recent strong inter-decadal change of Meiyu in 121-year variations

The strongest change in Meiyu periods in the mid-lower Yangtze Basin （MLY） since 1885 occurred in the late 1970s： a stage of weak Meiyu from 1958 to 1978 abruptly transformed into a stage of plentiful Meiyu from 1979 to 1999. The average Meiyu amount of the latter 21 years increased by 66% compared with that of the former 21 years, accompanied by a significant increase in the occurrence of summer floods in the MLY. This change was closely related with the frequent phenomenon of postponed Meiyu ending dates （MED） and later onset dates of high summer （ODHS） in the MLY. To a considerable degree, this reflects an abrupt change of the summer climate in East China. Further analysis showed that the preceding factors contributing to inter-annual changes in Meiyu in the two 21-year stages delimited above were also very different from each other. The causes of change were associated with the following： China’s industrialization has greatly accelerated since the 1970s, accompanied by an increase in atmospheric pollution and a reduction of the solar radiation reaching the ground. The sand area of North China has also expanded due to overgrazing. The enhanced greenhouse effect is manifested in warm winters （especially in February）. Meanwhile, the January precipitation of the MLY has for the most part increased, and El Ni？o events have occurred more frequently since the late 1970s. A correlative scatter diagram consisting of these five factors mentioned above clearly shows that the two stages with opposite Meiyu characteristics are grouped in two contrasting locations with very different environmental （land-atmosphere） conditions. It is quite possible that we are now entering a new stage of lesser Meiyu, beginning in 2000.