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The Contribution of United States Aircraft Reconnaissance Data to the China Meteorological Administration Tropical Cyclone Intensity Data:An Evaluation of Homogeneity
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作者 Ming YING Xiaoqin LU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第4期639-654,共16页
This paper investigates the homogeneity of United States aircraft reconnaissance data and the impact of these data on the homogeneity of the tropical cyclone(TC)best track data for the seasons 1949-1987 generated by t... This paper investigates the homogeneity of United States aircraft reconnaissance data and the impact of these data on the homogeneity of the tropical cyclone(TC)best track data for the seasons 1949-1987 generated by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA).The evaluation of the reconnaissance data shows that the minimum central sea level pressure(MCP)data are relatively homogeneous,whereas the maximum sustained wind(MSW)data show both overestimations and spurious abrupt changes.Statistical comparisons suggest that both the reconnaissance MCP and MSW were well incorporated into the CMA TC best track dataset.Although no spurious abrupt changes were evident in the reconnaissance-related best track MCP data,two spurious changepoints were identified in the remainder of the best-track MCP data.Furthermore,the influence of the reconnaissance MSWs seems to extend to the best track MSWs unrelated to reconnaissance,which might reflect the optimistic confidence in making higher estimates due to the overestimated extreme wind“observations”.In addition,the overestimation of either the reconnaissance MSWs or the best track MSWs was greater during the early decades compared to later decades,which reflects the important influence of reconnaissance data on the CMA TC best track dataset.The wind-pressure relationship(WPR)used in the CMA TC best track dataset is also evaluated and is found to overestimate the MSW,which may lead to inhomogeneity within the dataset between the aircraft reconnaissance era and the satellite era. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclone intensity HOMOGENEITY best track aircraft reconnaissance
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Alignment of Track Oscillations during Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification
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作者 Tong XIE Liguang WU +1 位作者 Yecheng FENG Jinghua YU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第4期655-670,共16页
Recent studies on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change indicate that the development of a vertically aligned TC circulation is a key feature of its rapid intensification(RI),however,understanding how vortex alignment ... Recent studies on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change indicate that the development of a vertically aligned TC circulation is a key feature of its rapid intensification(RI),however,understanding how vortex alignment occurs remains a challenging topic in TC intensity change research.Based on the simulation outputs of North Atlantic Hurricane Wilma(2005)and western North Pacific Typhoon Rammasun(2014),vortex track oscillations at different vertical levels and their associated role in vortex alignment are examined to improve our understanding of the vortex alignment during RI of TCs with initial hurricane intensity.It is found that vortex tracks at different vertical levels oscillate consistently in speed and direction during the RI of the two simulated TCs.While the consistent track oscillation reduces the oscillation tilt during RI,the reduction of vortex tilt results mainly from the mean track before RI.It is also found that the vortex tilt is primarily due to the mean vortex track before and after RI.The track oscillations are closely associated with wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves that are dominant wavenumber-1 circulations in the TC inner-core region.This study suggests that the dynamics of the wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves play an important role in the regulation of the physical processes associated with the track oscillation and vertical alignment of TCs. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclone rapid intensification vortex tilt Rossby wave
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Westerlies Affecting the Seasonal Variation of Water Vapor Transport over the Tibetan Plateau Induced by Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal
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作者 Xiaoli ZHOU Wen ZHOU +3 位作者 Dongxiao WANG Qiang XIE Lei YANG Qihua PENG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第5期881-893,共13页
This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over th... This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over the southern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau(SBTP).May and October–December are the bimodal phases of BOB TC frequency,which decreases month by month from October to December and is relatively low in May.However,the contribution rate to the MMBA is the highest in May.The seasonal variation in the meridional position of the westerlies is the key factor affecting the contribution rate.The relatively southern(northern)position of the westerlies in November and December(May)results in a lower(higher)contribution rate to the MMBA.This mechanism is confirmed by the momentum equation.When water vapor enters the westerlies near the trough line,the resultant meridional acceleration is directed north.It follows that the farther north the trough is,and the farther north the water vapor can be transported.When water vapor enters the westerlies from the area near the ridge line,for Type-T(Type-R)TCs,water vapor enters the westerlies downstream of the trough(ridge).Consequently,the direction of the resultant meridional acceleration is directed south and the resultant zonal acceleration is directed east(west),which is not conducive to the northward transport of water vapor.This is especially the case if the trough or ridge is relatively south,as the water vapor may not cross the SBTP. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclone Tibetan Plateau Bay of Bengal moisture budget weste
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Roles of Upper-Level Descending Inflow in Moat Development in Simulated Tropical Cyclones with Secondary Eyewall Formation
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作者 Nannan QIN Liguang WU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第6期1100-1114,共15页
This study investigated the effects of upper-level descending inflow(ULDI)associated with inner-eyewall convection on the formation of the moat in tropical cyclones(TCs)with secondary eyewall formation(SEF).In our num... This study investigated the effects of upper-level descending inflow(ULDI)associated with inner-eyewall convection on the formation of the moat in tropical cyclones(TCs)with secondary eyewall formation(SEF).In our numerical experiments,a clear moat with SEF occurred in TCs with a significant ULDI,while no SEF occurred in TCs without a significant ULDI.The eyewall convection developed more vigorously in the control run.A ULDI occurred outside the inner-eyewall convection,where it was symmetrically unstable.The ULDI was initially triggered by the diabatic warming released by the inner eyewall and later enhanced by the cooling below the anvil cloud.The ULDI penetrated the outer edge of the inner eyewall with relatively dry air and prevented excessive solid-phase hydrometeors from being advected further outward.It produced extensive sublimation cooling of falling hydrometeors between the eyewall and the outer convection.The sublimation cooling resulted in negative buoyancy and further induced strong subsidence between the eyewall and the outer convection.As a result,a clear moat was generated.Development of the moat in the ongoing SEF prevented the outer rainband from moving farther inward,helping the outer rainband to symmetrize into an outer eyewall.In the sensitivity experiment,no significant ULDI formed since the eyewall convection was weaker,and the eyewall anvil developed relatively lower,meaning the formation of a moat and thus an outer eyewall was less likely.This study suggests that a better-represented simulation of inner-eyewall convective structures and distribution of the solid-phase hydrometeors is important to the prediction of SEF. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclone secondary eyewall formation upper-level descending inflow eyewall convection
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An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea from the CMA-TRAMS
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作者 李梦婕 陈子通 +4 位作者 戴光丰 田群 梁卓轩 林青 张艳霞 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2024年第1期20-28,共9页
Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers f... Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters. 展开更多
关键词 CMA-TRAMS CYCLOGENESIS numerical weather prediction tropical cyclone
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Track-Pattern-Based Characteristics of Extratropical Transitioning Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific
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作者 Hong HUANG Dan WU +2 位作者 Yuan WANG Zhen WANG Yu LIU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第6期1251-1263,共13页
Based on the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center(RSMC)Tokyo-Typhoon Center best-track data and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset,extratropical transitioning(ET)tropical cyclones(ETCs)over the western North Pacif... Based on the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center(RSMC)Tokyo-Typhoon Center best-track data and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset,extratropical transitioning(ET)tropical cyclones(ETCs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)during 1951–2021 are classified into six clusters using the fuzzy c-means clustering method(FCM)according to their track patterns.The characteristics of the six hard-clustered ETCs with the highest membership coefficient are shown.Most tropical cyclones(TCs)that were assigned to clusters C2,C5,and C6 made landfall over eastern Asian countries,which severely threatened these regions.Among landfalling TCs,93.2%completed their ET after landfall,whereas 39.8%of ETCs completed their transition within one day.The frequency of ETCs over the WNP has decreased in the past four decades,wherein cluster C5 demonstrated a significant decrease on both interannual and interdecadal timescales with the expansion and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).This large-scale circulation pattern is favorable for C2 and causes it to become the dominant track pattern,owning to it containing the largest number of intensifying ETCs among the six clusters,a number that has increased insignificantly over the past four decades.The surface roughness variation and three-dimensional background circulation led to C5 containing the maximum number of landfalling TCs and a minimum number of intensifying ETCs.Our results will facilitate a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distributions of ET events and associated environment background fields,which will benefit the effective monitoring of these events over the WNP. 展开更多
关键词 Western North Pacific tropical cyclone extratropical transition fuzzy c-means clustering method
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Diagnostic Study of an Extreme Explosive Cyclone over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension Region
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作者 ZHANG Shuqin LIAO Qinghua +4 位作者 LIU Chunlei GAO Xiaoyu LONG Jingchao LI Pengyuan XU Jianjun 《Journal of Ocean University of China》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第3期605-617,共13页
Explosive cyclones(ECs)occur frequently over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region.The most rapidly intensified EC over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region during the 42 years(1979-2020)of cold seasons(October-Apr... Explosive cyclones(ECs)occur frequently over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region.The most rapidly intensified EC over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region during the 42 years(1979-2020)of cold seasons(October-April)was studied to reveal the variations of the key factors at different explosive-developing stages.This EC had weak low-level baroclinicity,mid-level cyclonic-vorticity advection,and strong low-level water vapor convergence at the initial explosive-developing stage.The low-level baroclinicity and mid-level cyclonic-vorticity advection increased substantially during the maximum-deepening-rate stage.The diagnostic analyses using the Zwack-Okossi equation showed that diabatic heating was the main contributor to the initial rapid intensification of this EC.The cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm-air advection enhanced rapidly in the middle and upper troposphere and contributed to the maximum rapid intensification,whereas the diabatic heating weakened slightly in the mid-low troposphere.The relative contribution of the diabatic heating decreased from the initial explosive-developing stage to the maximum-deepening-rate stage due to the enhancement of other factors(the cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm-air advection).Furthermore,the physical factors contributing to this EC varied with the explosive-developing stage.The non-key factors at the initial explosive-developing stage need attention to forecast the rapid intensification. 展开更多
关键词 explosive cyclone diabatic heating cyclonic-vorticity advection rapid intensification the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region
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Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on Intensity Change During Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Tropical Cyclones:A Numerical Study
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作者 杨昕玮 王玉清 +2 位作者 王慧 徐晶 占瑞芬 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2024年第2期106-117,共12页
This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone(TC)vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle(ERC)of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Resea... This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone(TC)vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle(ERC)of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.Results show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer winds.It is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall,which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity evolution.In contrast,the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer eyewall.These led to stronger boundary layer inflow,stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall,and suppressed convective activity outside the outer eyewall.These resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall,followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the ERC.Our study demonstrates that accurate initialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ERC.Additionally,monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclones concentric eyewall inner eyewall and outer eyewall eyewall replacement cycle intensity change
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Improving advantages and reducing risks in increasing cyclone height via an apex cone to grasp vortex end 被引量:1
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作者 Ronghua Zhang Jingxuan Yang +2 位作者 Shaoxing Han Xiaogang Hao Guoqing Guan 《Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2023年第2期136-143,共8页
For a cyclone, it is possible to improve separation efficiency and reduce pressure drop by increasing the cyclone height. However, an exceeded height increase could result in a dramatical drop in separation efficiency... For a cyclone, it is possible to improve separation efficiency and reduce pressure drop by increasing the cyclone height. However, an exceeded height increase could result in a dramatical drop in separation efficiency. In this study, experimental and computational fluid dynamics simulation results exhibit that the introduction of an apex cone at the dust outlet could avoid the risk of separation efficiency drop but lead to a continuous reducing of the pressure drop. Generally, the optimal cyclone height should be closely related to the natural vortex length. While, when the vortex end contracts into the separation space in the cyclone with an exceeded height, severe back-mixing of particles always occurs, which will result in the decrease of separation efficiency. Herein, it is found that when an apex cone is installed at the dust outlet, the vortex end can be grasped by the cone so as to weaken the back-mixing of particles.Meanwhile, the introduction of this apex cone can enhance the secondary separation to capture the back-mixed particles again so as to protect the efficiency. In addition, it is found that the enhanced secondary separation could come from either the stagnant current of axial velocity in the center or the improved tangential velocity of inner vortex whereas the forcibly extending the length of vortex to exceed its natural length will not significantly increase efficiency. 展开更多
关键词 cyclone separator cyclone height Natural vortex length Efficiency Secondary separation
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Bias Analysis in the Simulation of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Characteristics by Two High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Models 被引量:1
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作者 Qiyang LIU Fengxue QIAO +5 位作者 Yongqiang YU Yiting ZHU Shuwen ZHAO Yujia LIU Fulin JIANG Xinyu HU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第4期634-652,共19页
This study compares the atmosphere-only HighResMIP simulations from FGOALS-f3-H(FGOALS)and MRIAGCM3-2-S(MRI)with respect to tropical cyclone(TC)characteristics over the Western North Pacific(WNP)for the July-October m... This study compares the atmosphere-only HighResMIP simulations from FGOALS-f3-H(FGOALS)and MRIAGCM3-2-S(MRI)with respect to tropical cyclone(TC)characteristics over the Western North Pacific(WNP)for the July-October months of 1985-2014.The focus is on investigating the role of the tropical easterly jet over the Western Pacific(WP_TEJ)in modulating the simulation biases in terms of their climatological distribution and interannual variability of WNP TC genesis frequency(TCGF)based on the analysis of the genesis potential index(GPI).Results show that the two models reasonably capture the main TC genesis location,the maximum center of frequency,and track density;however,their biases mainly lie in simulating the intense TCs and TCGF distributions.The MRI better simulates the windpressure relationship(WPR)but overestimates the proportion of super typhoons(SSTYs).At the same time,FGOALS underestimates the WPR and the proportion of SSTYs but better simulates the total WNP TC precipitation.In particular,FGOALS overestimates the TCGF in the northeastern WNP,which is strongly tied to an overestimated WP_TEJ and the enhanced vertical circulation to the north of its entrance region.In contrast,the MRI simulates a weaker WP_TEJ and vertical circulation,leading to a negative TCGF bias in most of the WNP.Both models exhibit comparable capability in simulating the interannual variability of WP_TEJ intensity,but the composite difference of large-scale atmospheric factors between strong and weak WP_TEJ years is overestimated,resulting in larger interannual anomalies of WNP TCGF,especially for FGOALS.Therefore,accurate simulations of the WP_TEJ and the associated oceanic and atmospheric factors are crucial to further improving WNP TC simulations for both models. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclone genesis HighResMIP tropical easterly jet
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The Relationship Between Indian Ocean SST and Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over North Indian Ocean in May 被引量:1
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作者 陈艳 晏红明 +2 位作者 陶云 杨坤琳 王梦秋 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2023年第3期359-369,共11页
Tropical cyclone(TC)activities in the North Indian Ocean(NIO)peak in May during the pre-monsoon period,but the TC frequency shows obvious inter-annual variations.By conducting statistical analysis and dynamic diagnosi... Tropical cyclone(TC)activities in the North Indian Ocean(NIO)peak in May during the pre-monsoon period,but the TC frequency shows obvious inter-annual variations.By conducting statistical analysis and dynamic diagnosis of long-term data from 1948 to 2016,the relationship between the inter-annual variations of Indian Ocean SST and NIO TC genesis frequency in May is analyzed in this paper.Furthermore,the potential mechanism concerning the effect of SST anomaly on TC frequency is also investigated.The findings are as follows:1)there is a broadly consistent negative correlation between NIO TC frequency in May and SST in the Indian Ocean from March to May,with the key influencing area located in the southwestern Indian Ocean(SWIO);2)the anomalies of SST in SWIO(SWIO-SST)are closely related to a teleconnection pattern surrounding the Indian Ocean,which can significantly modulate the high-level divergence,mid-level vertical motion and other related environmental factors and ultimately influence the formation of TCs over the NIO;3)the increasing trend of SWIO-SST may play an essential role in the downward trend of NIO TC frequency over the past 69 years. 展开更多
关键词 North Indian Ocean frequency of tropical cyclone genesis SST TELECONNECTION
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Observed decadal shifts and trends in global tropical cyclone activities from 1980 to 2021 被引量:1
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作者 Widana Arachchige Erandani Lakshani Wen Zhou 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2023年第2期35-41,共7页
研究发现在1980-2021期间全球6个海域每年热带气旋的发生频次和强度具有显著年代际变化规律,最近几十年,北大西洋和北印度洋的热带气旋发生频次明显增加,但西北太平洋的热带气旋却显著下降.另外三个海域,东太平洋,南印度洋和南太平洋发... 研究发现在1980-2021期间全球6个海域每年热带气旋的发生频次和强度具有显著年代际变化规律,最近几十年,北大西洋和北印度洋的热带气旋发生频次明显增加,但西北太平洋的热带气旋却显著下降.另外三个海域,东太平洋,南印度洋和南太平洋发现所生成的热带气旋有减少趋势.但在过去十几年,平均热带气旋的强度除了在东太平洋和北大西洋有所减弱但在其他几个海域有所加强,特别是在2013-2021期间,北印度洋的平均热带气旋的强度增强明显.热带气旋的潜在生成指数(GPI)增加或减少趋势变化与北印度洋,北大西洋和西太平洋热带气旋变化相关的大尺度环流一致.另外,北印度洋,北大西洋和西太平洋上空的垂直风切变是影响其区域热带气旋发生频次变化的主要因子,不同的气候模态也可能对全球热带气旋的趋势变化和年代际变化有影响,值得进一步研究. 展开更多
关键词 热带气旋 热带气旋强度 潜在生成指数 大尺度参数
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Ground–Space–Sky Observing System Experiment during Tropical Cyclone Mulan in August 2022
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作者 Pak-wai CHAN Wei HAN +4 位作者 Betty MAK Xiaohao QIN Yongzhu LIU Ruoying YIN Jincheng WANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第2期194-200,共7页
Forecasting tropical cyclone track and intensity is a great challenge for the meteorological community,and safeguarding the life and property of people living near the coast is an important issue.One major reason for ... Forecasting tropical cyclone track and intensity is a great challenge for the meteorological community,and safeguarding the life and property of people living near the coast is an important issue.One major reason for challenging forecasts is the lack of observations over the vast oceans.During tropical cyclone Mulan between 8 and 10 August 2022 over the northern part of the South China Sea,the meteorological authority and research institutes of Chinese mainland collaborated with the meteorological service in Hong Kong on conducting the first-ever ground–space–sky observing system experiment on tropical cyclone Mulan.The enhanced targeted observations collected during the experiment include Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder,round-trip radiosondes,and aircraft-launched dropsondes.This paper describes the campaign,technical details of the meteorological models used,and impact of the additional targeted observation data on the tropical cyclone forecast.Ideally,similar enhanced observation campaigns could be conducted in the future,not only in the northern part of the South China Sea,but also in other ocean basins. 展开更多
关键词 METEOROLOGICAL cyclone TROPICAL
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Historic and Future Perspectives of Storm and Cyclone
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作者 Gang FU Pengyuan LI +2 位作者 Lijia CHEN Yongmao PENG Jing NI 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第3期447-463,共17页
In weather sciences,the two specific terms“storm”and“cyclone”frequently appear in literature and usually refer to the violent nature of a number of weather systems characterized by central low pressure,strong wind... In weather sciences,the two specific terms“storm”and“cyclone”frequently appear in literature and usually refer to the violent nature of a number of weather systems characterized by central low pressure,strong winds,large precipitation amounts in the form of rain,freezing rain,or snow,as well as thunder and lightning.But what is the connection between these two specific terms?In this paper,the historic evolutions of the terms“storm”and“cyclone”are reviewed from the perspective of weather science.The earliest recorded storms in world history are also briefly introduced.Then,the origin of the term“meteorological bomb”,which is the nickname of the“explosive cyclone”is introduced.Later,the various definitions of explosive cyclones given by several researchers are discussed.Also,the climatological features of explosive cyclones,as well as the future trends of explosive cyclones under global climate change,are discussed. 展开更多
关键词 weather sciences storm and cyclone the origin of explosive cyclone climatological features global climate change future trends
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Intensity Estimation of Extreme Meteorological and Hydrological Factors Induced by Tropical Cyclones Affecting Hong Kong
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作者 TAO Shanshan HUA Yunfei DONG Sheng 《Journal of Ocean University of China》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第2期313-323,共11页
Hong Kong is often affected by tropical cyclones.The Hong Kong observatory issues warning signals based on the impact of tropical cyclones on the region.The joint frequency analysis of tropical cyclones in Hong Kong c... Hong Kong is often affected by tropical cyclones.The Hong Kong observatory issues warning signals based on the impact of tropical cyclones on the region.The joint frequency analysis of tropical cyclones in Hong Kong can provide a scientific basis for disaster reduction and prevention and post-disaster reconstruction of tropical cyclones.First,the maximum hourly mean wind speed(W),warning signal duration(D),maximum sea level(L),and total rainfall(R)of each tropical cyclone that affected Hong Kong from 1985 to 2019 are selected and fitted using the Gumbel,Weibull,Pearson type 3,and lognormal distributions.Then,bivariate copula functions,such as the Clayton,Frank,Gumbel-Hougaard,and Gaussian copulas,are applied to construct the joint probability models of W,D,L,and R,respectively.The joint return periods of W and D and those of L and R are defined as the meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones,respectively.The results show that the joint return periods are good indicators of the comprehensive effect of the meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones.No necessary correlation between meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones exists.The meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones show an upward trend in recent years. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclone warning signal meteorological intensity hydrological intensity copula
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Wave hindcast under tropical cyclone conditions in the South China Sea:sensitivity to wind fields
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作者 Liqun Jia Shimei Wu +2 位作者 Bo Han Shuqun Cai Renhao Wu 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第10期36-53,共18页
Reliable wave information is critical for marine engineering.Numerical wave models are useful tools to obtain wave information with continuous spatiotemporal distributions.However,the accuracy of model results highly ... Reliable wave information is critical for marine engineering.Numerical wave models are useful tools to obtain wave information with continuous spatiotemporal distributions.However,the accuracy of model results highly depends on the quality of wind forcing.In this study,we utilize observations from five buoys deployed in the northern South China Sea from August to September 2017.Notably,these buoys successfully recorded wind field and wave information during the passage of five tropical cyclones of different intensities without sustaining any damage.Based on these unique observations,we evaluated the quality of four widely used wind products,namely CFSv2,ERA5,CCMP,and ERAI.Our analysis showed that in the northern South China Sea,ERA5 performed best compared to buoy observations,especially in terms of maximum wind speed values at 10 m height(U10),extreme U10 occurrence time,and overall statistical indicators.CFSv2 tended to overestimate non-extreme U10 values.CCMP showed favorable statistical performance at only three of the five buoys,but underestimated extreme U10 values at all buoys.ERAI had the worst performance under both normal and tropical cyclone conditions.In terms of wave hindcast accuracy,ERA5 outperformed the other reanalysis products,with CFSv2 and CCMP following closely.ERAI showed poor performance especially in the upper significant wave heights.Furthermore,we found that the wave hindcasts did not improve with increasing spatiotemporal resolution,with spatial resolution up to 0.5°.These findings would help in improving wave hindcasts under extreme conditions. 展开更多
关键词 wave hindcast SWAN tropical cyclone South China Sea
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Effects of a Dry-Mass Conserving Dynamical Core on the Simulation of Tropical Cyclones
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作者 Shaoying LI Jun PENG +4 位作者 Weimin ZHANG Jianping WU Qiang YAO Xiangrong YANG Tengling LUO 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第3期464-482,共19页
The accurate forecasting of tropical cyclones(TCs)is a challenging task.The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of a dry-mass conserving(DMC)hydrostatic global spectral dynamical core on TC simulation... The accurate forecasting of tropical cyclones(TCs)is a challenging task.The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of a dry-mass conserving(DMC)hydrostatic global spectral dynamical core on TC simulation.Experiments were conducted with DMC and total(moist)mass conserving(TMC)dynamical cores.The TC forecast performance was first evaluated considering 20 TCs in the West Pacific region observed during the 2020 typhoon season.The impacts of the DMC dynamical core on forecasts of individual TCs were then estimated.The DMC dynamical core improved both the track and intensity forecasts,and the TC intensity forecast improvement was much greater than the TC track forecast improvement.Sensitivity simulations indicated that the DMC dynamical core-simulated TC intensity was stronger regardless of the forecast lead time.In the DMC dynamical core experiments,three-dimensional winds and warm and moist cores were consistently enhanced with the TC intensity.Drier air in the boundary inflow layer was found in the DMC dynamical core experiments at the early simulation times.Water vapor mixing ratio budget analysis indicated that this mainly depended on the simulated vertical velocity.Higher updraft above the boundary layer yielded a drier boundary layer,resulting in surface latent heat flux(SLHF)enhancement,the major energy source of TC intensification.The higher DMC dynamical core-simulated updraft in the inner core caused a higher net surface rain rate,producing higher net internal atmospheric diabatic heating and increasing the TC intensity.These results indicate that the stronger DMC dynamical coresimulated TCs are mainly related to the higher DMC vertical velocity. 展开更多
关键词 dry mass conservation tropical cyclone intensity forecast track forecast
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Predecessor Rain Events in the Yangtze River Delta Region Associated with South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO)Tropical Cyclones
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作者 Huiyan XU Xiaofan LI +1 位作者 Jinfang YIN Dengrong ZHANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第6期1021-1042,共22页
Predecessor rain events(PREs) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region associated with the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO) tropical cyclones(TCs) are investigated during the period from 2010 to 201... Predecessor rain events(PREs) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region associated with the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO) tropical cyclones(TCs) are investigated during the period from 2010 to 2019.Results indicate that approximately 10% of TCs making landfall in China produce PREs over the YRD region;however,they are seldom forecasted. PREs often occur over the YRD region when TCs begin to be active in the SCS-WNPO with westward paths, whilst the cold air is still existing or beginning to be present. PREs are more likely to peak in June and September. The distances between the PRE centers and the parent TC range from 900 to 1700 km. The median value of rain amounts and the median lifetime of PREs is approximately 200 mm and 24 h, respectively. Composite results suggest that PREs form in the equatorward jet-entrance region of the upper-level westerly jet(WJ), where a 925-hPa equivalent potential temperature ridge is located east of a 500-hPa trough. Deep moisture is transported from the TC vicinity to the remote PREs region. The ascent of this deep moist air in front of the 500-hPa trough and frontogenesis beneath the equatorward entrance region of the WJ is advantageous for the occurrence of PREs in the YRD region. The upper-level WJ may be affected by the subtropical high and westerly trough in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and the occurrence of PREs may favor the maintenance of the upper-level WJ. The upper-level outflow of TCs in the SCS plays a secondary role. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclone heavy rain westerly trough upper-level jet stream
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Hazard risk assessment of tropical cyclones based on joint probability theory
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作者 Shanshan Tao Yunfei Hua Sheng Dong 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第6期89-99,共11页
The main hazard-causing factors of tropical cyclones are strong wind,heavy rainfall,and storm surge.Evaluation of the hazard-causing degree of a tropical cyclone requires a joint intensity analysis of these hazard-cau... The main hazard-causing factors of tropical cyclones are strong wind,heavy rainfall,and storm surge.Evaluation of the hazard-causing degree of a tropical cyclone requires a joint intensity analysis of these hazard-causing factors.According to the maximum hourly mean wind speed,total rainfall,and maximum tide level at various observation stations in Hong Kong during these tropical cyclones,three hazard-causing indices for tropical cyclones are introduced:the strong-wind index(VI),total-rainfall index(RI),and tide-level index(LI).Through a joint probability analysis of VI,RI,and LI for a tropical cyclone affecting Hong Kong,the joint return period is calculated to evaluate its joint hazard-causing intensity.A limit state function of Hong Kong’s resistance to tropical cyclones is developed and used to evaluate the regional risk of tropical cyclones affecting Hong Kong.The results indicate that the joint return period of VI,RI,and LI can reflect the joint hazard-causing intensity of strong wind,heavy rain,and storm surge caused by tropical cyclones;if the overall design return periods of the regional structures decrease,the regional ability to defend against tropical cyclone disasters is degraded. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclone Hong Kong trivariate copulas hazard-causing factors regional risk
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Influence of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover on interannual variability of Western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks
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作者 Zhaohua WANG Dongliang ZHAO +1 位作者 Kejian WU Lian XIE 《Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第6期2060-2076,共17页
Track density function(TDF)was computed for all Western North Pacific tropical cyclones(WNP TCs)tracks from 1950 to 2018,and the TDFs were further investigated using principal component analysis(PCA)to analyze their i... Track density function(TDF)was computed for all Western North Pacific tropical cyclones(WNP TCs)tracks from 1950 to 2018,and the TDFs were further investigated using principal component analysis(PCA)to analyze their inter-annual spatial and temporal variability.Then,the relationships between each empirical orthogonal function(EOF)mode and the typhoon count,typhoon landfall count,track pattern,and the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover(QXPSC)were examined,and the possible physical mechanisms implied by the statistical relationship were explored.The results show the QXPSC significantly affected the surface-atmosphere heat exchange through snow cover(SC)level,then changed the East Asian summer monsoon regional circulation pattern,influenced the subtropical high-pressure system strength and location,and ultimately affected the WNP TCs track patterns and thus changed their landfall locations. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclone Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover track pattern landfall location
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