We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartmen...We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartments have added death,hospitalized,and critical,which improves the basic understanding of disease spread and results.We have studiedCOVID-19 cases of six countries,where the impact of this disease in the highest are Brazil,India,Italy,Spain,the United Kingdom,and the United States.After estimating model parameters based on available clinical data,the modelwill propagate and forecast dynamic evolution.Themodel calculates the Basic reproduction number over time using logistic regression and the Case fatality rate based on the selected countries’age-category scenario.Themodel calculates two types of Case fatality rate one is CFR daily,and the other is total CFR.The proposed model estimates the approximate time when the disease is at its peak and the approximate time when death cases rarely occur and calculate how much hospital beds and ICU beds will be needed in the peak days of infection.The SEIHCRD model outperforms the classic ARXmodel and the ARIMA model.RMSE,MAPE,andRsquaredmatrices are used to evaluate results and are graphically represented using Taylor and Target diagrams.The result shows RMSE has improved by 56%–74%,and MAPE has a 53%–89%improvement in prediction accuracy.展开更多
Hospital linen is clearly recognized as a potential reservoir for microorganisms and could be a vector of disease transmission. The aim of this study was to isolate, count and identify fungi and bacteria from differen...Hospital linen is clearly recognized as a potential reservoir for microorganisms and could be a vector of disease transmission. The aim of this study was to isolate, count and identify fungi and bacteria from different kinds of clean and dirty linen in a hospital. Microbiological samples have been collected on clean bed linen (n = 200), dirty bed linen (n = 192) and staff uniforms (n = 192) by using contact plates. 55% of samples from clean bed linen were contaminated before contact with the patient, with a mean count of 3 cfu/25 cm2 (range: 1-117 cfu) when contaminated. Virtually all samples from dirty bed linen carried microorganisms, with a mean count of 23 cfu/25 cm2 (range 1-191 cfu). In addition, staff hospital uniforms showed the highest contamination rates in the study, with an average of 45 cfu/25 cm2 (range: 1-218 cfu). Microbial species were mostly bacteria commonly found in the environment or on human skin, such as staphylococci or micrococci. Nevertheless, 57% of the identified species may be opportunistic pathogens for humans, representing a risk for people with a deficient or weakened immune system, especially in cases of superinfection. Since contamination of linen seems to occur after washing, actively antimicrobial textiles would represent a valuable measure to prevent textiles from being a vehicle for transfer of microorganisms.展开更多
This study focused on hospital utilization for adult medical-surgical patients in Syracuse, New York as the census peaked then declined between December 2020 and February 2021. The initial analysis demonstrated that t...This study focused on hospital utilization for adult medical-surgical patients in Syracuse, New York as the census peaked then declined between December 2020 and February 2021. The initial analysis demonstrated that the adult medical-surgical census including Coronavirus patients declined by 8.1 percent during January and February 2021. The study data also demonstrated that the adult medical-surgical census of the combined hospitals increased as the numbers of virus patients declined. The inpatient census at the end of February 2021 was 3.6 percent below the level for February 2019 and 15.0 percent below the level for February 2020. This suggested a range between 3.6 and 15.0 percent below those in previous years for medical-surgical planning after the epidemic.展开更多
An important component of health care planning at the community level is the identification of inpatient hospital bed capacity. In the United States, hospitals are major providers of patient care and the largest sourc...An important component of health care planning at the community level is the identification of inpatient hospital bed capacity. In the United States, hospitals are major providers of patient care and the largest sources of health care expenses. This study evaluated inpatient hospital capacity for major services including adult medicine, adult surgery, and obstetrics. It was based on local and regional demographics, admissions per capita, inmigration, and inpatient lengths of stay. The study also involved the use of the methodology to estimate bed need based on a reduction in hospital admissions and discharges of 15 percent. This level has been the experience of area hospitals between 2019 and 2022. The study also included the use of the bed need methodology to estimate the hospital utilization based on a decline in inpatient lengths of stay. It resulted in a decline in hospital occupancy in the hospital service area from 1213.1 to 1012.6 patients based on 80 percent occupancy and the best practice hospital stays in the region.展开更多
基金The work has been supported by a grant received from the Ministry of Education,Government of India under the Scheme for the Promotion of Academic and Research Collaboration(SPARC)(ID:SPARC/2019/1396).
文摘We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartments have added death,hospitalized,and critical,which improves the basic understanding of disease spread and results.We have studiedCOVID-19 cases of six countries,where the impact of this disease in the highest are Brazil,India,Italy,Spain,the United Kingdom,and the United States.After estimating model parameters based on available clinical data,the modelwill propagate and forecast dynamic evolution.Themodel calculates the Basic reproduction number over time using logistic regression and the Case fatality rate based on the selected countries’age-category scenario.Themodel calculates two types of Case fatality rate one is CFR daily,and the other is total CFR.The proposed model estimates the approximate time when the disease is at its peak and the approximate time when death cases rarely occur and calculate how much hospital beds and ICU beds will be needed in the peak days of infection.The SEIHCRD model outperforms the classic ARXmodel and the ARIMA model.RMSE,MAPE,andRsquaredmatrices are used to evaluate results and are graphically represented using Taylor and Target diagrams.The result shows RMSE has improved by 56%–74%,and MAPE has a 53%–89%improvement in prediction accuracy.
文摘Hospital linen is clearly recognized as a potential reservoir for microorganisms and could be a vector of disease transmission. The aim of this study was to isolate, count and identify fungi and bacteria from different kinds of clean and dirty linen in a hospital. Microbiological samples have been collected on clean bed linen (n = 200), dirty bed linen (n = 192) and staff uniforms (n = 192) by using contact plates. 55% of samples from clean bed linen were contaminated before contact with the patient, with a mean count of 3 cfu/25 cm2 (range: 1-117 cfu) when contaminated. Virtually all samples from dirty bed linen carried microorganisms, with a mean count of 23 cfu/25 cm2 (range 1-191 cfu). In addition, staff hospital uniforms showed the highest contamination rates in the study, with an average of 45 cfu/25 cm2 (range: 1-218 cfu). Microbial species were mostly bacteria commonly found in the environment or on human skin, such as staphylococci or micrococci. Nevertheless, 57% of the identified species may be opportunistic pathogens for humans, representing a risk for people with a deficient or weakened immune system, especially in cases of superinfection. Since contamination of linen seems to occur after washing, actively antimicrobial textiles would represent a valuable measure to prevent textiles from being a vehicle for transfer of microorganisms.
文摘This study focused on hospital utilization for adult medical-surgical patients in Syracuse, New York as the census peaked then declined between December 2020 and February 2021. The initial analysis demonstrated that the adult medical-surgical census including Coronavirus patients declined by 8.1 percent during January and February 2021. The study data also demonstrated that the adult medical-surgical census of the combined hospitals increased as the numbers of virus patients declined. The inpatient census at the end of February 2021 was 3.6 percent below the level for February 2019 and 15.0 percent below the level for February 2020. This suggested a range between 3.6 and 15.0 percent below those in previous years for medical-surgical planning after the epidemic.
文摘An important component of health care planning at the community level is the identification of inpatient hospital bed capacity. In the United States, hospitals are major providers of patient care and the largest sources of health care expenses. This study evaluated inpatient hospital capacity for major services including adult medicine, adult surgery, and obstetrics. It was based on local and regional demographics, admissions per capita, inmigration, and inpatient lengths of stay. The study also involved the use of the methodology to estimate bed need based on a reduction in hospital admissions and discharges of 15 percent. This level has been the experience of area hospitals between 2019 and 2022. The study also included the use of the bed need methodology to estimate the hospital utilization based on a decline in inpatient lengths of stay. It resulted in a decline in hospital occupancy in the hospital service area from 1213.1 to 1012.6 patients based on 80 percent occupancy and the best practice hospital stays in the region.
