The impacts of climate change on China's agriculture are measured based on Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data...The impacts of climate change on China's agriculture are measured based on Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data for 1275 agriculture-dominated counties in the period of 1985-1991, we find that both higher temperature and more precipitation will have overall positive impact on China's agriculture. However, the impacts vary seasonally and regionally. Higher temperature in all seasons except spring increases agricultural net revenue while more precipitation is beneficial in winter but is harmful in summer. Applying the model to five climate scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s shows that the North, the Northeast, the Northwest, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau would always benefit from climate change while the South and the Southwest may be negatively affected. For the East and the Central China, most scenarios show that they may benefit from climate change. In conclusion, climate change would be beneficial to the whole China.展开更多
China agriculture development, to some extent, is a reflection of China social development. Nowadays, China has goneglobal in industry, agriculture, technology, culture and education. However, China's agriculture ...China agriculture development, to some extent, is a reflection of China social development. Nowadays, China has goneglobal in industry, agriculture, technology, culture and education. However, China's agriculture development process is long per-ceived as a legend to outside world for unbelievable facts created after China launched its opening-up policy in 1978 and theHousehold Contract Responsibility System(HCRS) was formally established nationwide in 1981.展开更多
基金Young Scientist Summer Program at the International Institute for Applied System Analysis, YSSP 1999, Austria
文摘The impacts of climate change on China's agriculture are measured based on Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data for 1275 agriculture-dominated counties in the period of 1985-1991, we find that both higher temperature and more precipitation will have overall positive impact on China's agriculture. However, the impacts vary seasonally and regionally. Higher temperature in all seasons except spring increases agricultural net revenue while more precipitation is beneficial in winter but is harmful in summer. Applying the model to five climate scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s shows that the North, the Northeast, the Northwest, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau would always benefit from climate change while the South and the Southwest may be negatively affected. For the East and the Central China, most scenarios show that they may benefit from climate change. In conclusion, climate change would be beneficial to the whole China.
文摘China agriculture development, to some extent, is a reflection of China social development. Nowadays, China has goneglobal in industry, agriculture, technology, culture and education. However, China's agriculture development process is long per-ceived as a legend to outside world for unbelievable facts created after China launched its opening-up policy in 1978 and theHousehold Contract Responsibility System(HCRS) was formally established nationwide in 1981.
